Monday, October 14, 2013

US backed Rebels fighters unity continues to crumble as more groups pull out of the SNC and refusal to attend Geneva 2 sidelines alleged moderate group further , Iraq Kurdistan prepares to strike Syrian Rebel fighters in Syrian Kurdistan - which would bring Iraq further into the Syria War ! Iran and P5 + 1 meeting set for later this week as apparent pathway to an Agreement seems more possible than in quite a few years ! .....

http://rt.com/news/opposition-west-incapable-talks-166/


West can’t get Syrian opp to peace talks, blames Russia - Lavrov

Published time: October 14, 2013 09:20
Edited time: October 14, 2013 11:43
Free Syrian Army fighters take positions behind a damaged car as they fire their weapons during an offensive against forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo's Salaheddine neighbourhood, October 9, 2013. (Reuters/Malek Alshemali)
Free Syrian Army fighters take positions behind a damaged car as they fire their weapons during an offensive against forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo's Salaheddine neighbourhood, October 9, 2013. (Reuters/Malek Alshemali)
Russia’s Foreign Minister has criticized the US for its inability to bring the Syrian opposition to the Geneva II peace conference and for trying to shift the responsibility for the currently stalled negotiations on Russia.
“It is strange to hear repeated statements by some US state department officials that we are moving towards Geneva II, but it’s important that Russia puts pressure on Damascus. They are shifting the blame. We are actually putting pressure on Damascus, and it really works” Sergey Lavrov said on Monday after the talks with Honduran Foreign Minister Mireya Aguero.
The Russian Foreign Minister pointed at the fact that it’s the Syrian National Council which refused to take part in the peace conference. And the US was responsible for compelling it to participate. 
"The main obstacle to this endeavor is still the inability of our partners to force the Syrian opposition, whom they are supporting, to come to Geneva and sit down at the negotiating table with the government in order to find ways out of this crisis by general consent," Sergey Lavrov said as cited by Interfax.
Kerry reiterated the US position that President Bashar Assad should resign, a demand very much in tune with the demands of the Syrian opposition, which has said his departure is a precondition for a peace conference.

"We believe that President Assad has lost the legitimacy necessary to be a cohesive force that could bring people together," Reuters reported Kerry as saying. "There has to be a transition government in Syria to permit the possibility of peace."

Both Kerry and Lavrov have called on all sides to set an exact date for the talks as soon as possible. Russia’s Foreign Minister said that "only the Jihadists can win in case of delay." He believes that if the peace process does not start in Syria the consequences will be grave and far-reaching. 
“It’s more than just a tangle of controversies inside this country. We are seeing here underground processes, which are quite destructive, spreading throughout the Middle East and North Africa” Lavrov said. “If it keeps going on like this and if the peace process does not materialize, the consequences will be felt far outside the region.”
The prospect of Geneva-2 peace negotiations was called into question on Sunday, when the Syrian National Council, a major opposition group announced it would not participate in the talks.

The announcement was followed by a series of blasts in Damascus, including a mortar attack on Syrian TV. Experts believe the escalation of violence at the time when the UN inspectors are working in the country, could be used by rebel fighters to disrupt the peace process.

On Monday Syria officially became a member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). A week ago, Damascus began destroying the first chemical weapons which, according to the US-Russian deal made during Geneva talks in September, have to be fully eliminated by June 30, 2014.

Geneva-2 is a much delayed follow-up to an earlier round of talks on Syria, which were held in June 2012. Back then Russia and the United States agreed on having a second peace conference. However, that kept getting postponed, mostly because of the Syrian opposition being divided on whether it should participate. 

http://news.antiwar.com/2013/10/13/key-syrian-rebel-bloc-rules-out-attending-geneva-ii-talks/

Key Syrian Rebel Bloc Rules Out Attending Geneva II Talks

Threatens to Quit Coalition If Anyone Else Participates

by Jason Ditz, October 13, 2013
The prospect of a Geneva II peace conference actually happen for the ongoing Syrian Civil War is looking more and more remote, as the leader of the Syrian National Coalition George Sabra has announced his group will not be taking part.
Sabra went on to say that talks with the Assad government are “impossible” at present, and warned that his group would withdraw from the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the pro-US rebel umbrella, if anyone else from the SNC attended.
Not that anyone else in the SNC had announced it was going to at any rate, as the group has spent the last several months debating whether or not to take part in the conference (which was supposed to be in June) without any resolution.
The SNC has the loyalty of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a moderate faction made up of military defectors, but the group seems to be splintering badly lately, with a number of rebel groups disavowing them and signing up for rival umbrella groups.

http://news.antiwar.com/2013/10/13/iraqi-kurdistan-president-ready-to-strike-syria-rebels/

Iraqi Kurdistan President ‘Ready’ to Strike Syria Rebels

Says He Wants to Avoid Getting Drawn Into War

by Jason Ditz, October 13, 2013
Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) President Massud Barzani says that he is determined to avoid getting drawn into the ongoing Syrian Civil War, but he looks to be making the first steps in that direction today, announcing his intention to strike against “terrorist criminals” in Syrian Kurdistan.
By that Barzani means the jihadist factions within Syria’s rebellion, notably the Jabhat al-Nusra, which has been attacking targets across Syrian Kurdistan with an eye toward taking border crossings into Turkey.
Barzani has raised the prospect of sending troops from the Peshmerga to Syria before to protect Kurdish civilians, but never actually did so. The late September attack on the Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Arbil looks like it might be the tipping point, however.
The Iraqi Kurds have no real interest in aiding the Assad government in Syria, but the constant al-Qaeda probing against their Syrian is going to put them on roughly the same side in an increasingly complex, multi-faceted civil war.




Iran.....


http://www.debka.com/article/23353/US-to-Iran-ahead-of-Geneva-Carry-on-enriching-uranium-but-cut-down-on-advanced-IR-2-centrifuges-

US Secretary of State John Kerry briefed EU foreign policy executive Catherine Ashton Sunday night, Oct. 13, on the areas of accord and discord quietly settled between the US and Iran. She had to be brought up to speed before meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif the next day, ahead of the P5+1 talks with Iran which she chairs in Geneva  on Tuesday, Oct 15.

Both Kerry and the leading Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi set out their government’s official positions in public statements Sunday night. Neither can guarantee which or any parts of those statements will survive all the way to the end of the formal or the backdoor diplomatic processes.

The Secretary of State spoke of a window for diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program “cracking open” and said:“ …we believe no deal is better than a bad deal.”

Kerry will not have forgotten how his ringing pledge of an American military strike against Syria over its use of chemical weapons segued into the Pesident Barack Obama's decision to back down.

Araghchi ruled out Tehran sending any of its enriched uranium abroad as part of any deal to ease sanctions. In so saying, he directly contradicted an earlier comment by parliament Speaker Ali Larijani that Iran has more enriched uranium than it needs and should use it as a bargaining chip in talks with the West.

DEBKAfile’s sources in Washington and Tehran report that 24 hours before the Geneva forum, no hard and fast decisions have been reached on final areas of accord and the proposals to be put on the table  - either in Barack Obama’s tight circle of intimate advisers headed by chief of staff Denis McDonough, or in Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bureau.

Both are held back by last-minute internal differences and uncertainties in their home bases. Major issues are expected to move up from Geneva to higher levels. Monday, Zarif confirmed the perception that no consensus was to be expected at the Geneva forum and the six foreign ministers would have to be convened to push a resolution forward.

As matters stand, DEBKAfile can throw some light on five outstanding aspects:

1.  As his contribution to bringing negotiations to a successful conclusion, i.e. an accord signed by all six powers, Barack Obama agreed in principle in backdoor exchanges that Iran’s nuclear program can continue, including the enrichment of uranium up to 20 percent purity.

Where the two sides parted ways was on quantities of enriched material and the type of centrifuges used for its manufacture.

2.  President Obama is willing to accept the Iranian regime’s declaration that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes and the country has never engaged in weapons activity. He is even willing to fall for Iranian propaganda’s claim that Khamenei had issued a fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons, even through every Shiite authority says that Iran's supreme leader is not competent to issue religious edicts.

3.  Khamenei himself is challenged by controversy at the top of his regime between hard-liners standing out for more concessions from the West and factions more amenable to compromise.  

The influential Larijani was most likely talking for Khamenei when he offered the first authoritative signal that Tehran would consider the removal of part of its enriched uranium stocks from the country for the sake of an accord.

No sooner was his comment welcomed in Washington and European capitals as the first major breakthrough in nuclear diplomacy with Tehran, when senior negotiator Araghchi dumped a cold shower on their heads.

4. DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report that, for now, the hardliners are up in the seesaw rocking the Iranian regime. Their faction argues that since the United States has already agreed to let Iran continue to enrich uranium up to 20 percent, all that remains to be settled is a cap on the number of advanced high-speed  IR2 centrifuges Iran is allowed to use. This ace, they say, is powerful enough to trump any arguments about the quantities of enriched fissile material Iran is allowed to retain and keep in the country.

5.  Nothing remains of the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s four stipulations for accepting a nuclear accord with Iran. Not a  vestige will reach the Geneva conference agenda after Washington brushed aside every one of those stipulations, which were: to halt uranium enrichment, remove enriched uranium stocks from Iran,  shut down the Fordo underground enrichment plant and suspend construction of the heavy water reactor in Arak for the production of plutonium.

Secretary Kerry threw a bone to the Israeli government in his comment Sunday via satellite to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee summit in California:  "I want you to know that our eyes are open, too. While we seek a peaceful resolution to Iran's nuclear program, words must be matched with actions. In any engagement with Iran, we are mindful of Israel's security needs."

Israelis strongly doubt whether any of the parties to a future deal on Iran’s nuclear program will match their words with actions.





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