In Syria, It Is Now A Rebel-Eat-Rebel World
Just when you thought the situation in Syria was stabilizing (despite dueling op-eds), last week saw a new battle begin - dubbed "Expunging Filth". In spite of the catchy name, as the WSJ reports, an al-Qaeda spinoff (a jihadist group known as ISIS) is seizing territory across Syria from the US-backed Free Syrian Army and the Government.
"It's a three-front war," a U.S. official said of the FSA rebels' fight: They face the Assad regime, forces from its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, and now the multinational jihadist ranks of ISIS.
As WSJ notes, the spread of ISIS illustrates the failure of Western-backed Syrian
moderates to establish authority in opposition-held parts of Syria, some
of which have been under rebel control for over a year. "It's still the case that a majority of Syrians are not up for Talibanization," but given the spread of ISIS, their choices may become increasingly limited.
moderates to establish authority in opposition-held parts of Syria, some
of which have been under rebel control for over a year. "It's still the case that a majority of Syrians are not up for Talibanization," but given the spread of ISIS, their choices may become increasingly limited.
Leaders of the FSA say that ISIS, an Iraqi al Qaeda outfit whose formal name is the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, has dragged them into a battle they are ill-equipped to fight.Some U.S. officials said they see it as a battle for the FSA's survival. In recent months, ISIS has become a magnet for foreign jihadists who view the war in Syria not primarily as a means to overthrow the Assad regime but rather as a historic battleground for a larger Sunni holy war....Estimates on the size of ISIS range from 7,000 to 10,000 fighters. Fighters from ISIS—though it shares the goal of toppling Mr. Assad's Shiite-linked Alawite regime—have frustrated Sunni communities that until recently embraced the military prowess and social services of Islamist rebels, local residents said.The FSA's fight with extremists is spurring new rebel calls for Western help, after the U.S. put on hold what had looked like imminent strikes on the Assad regime. Instead, diplomacy has taken over, after a U.S.-Russian deal to disarm Syria's chemical weapons...."It's still the case that a majority of Syrians are not up for Talibanization. Given a moderate alternative, they will choose that."The other alternative: A lawless north becomes a launchpad for jihadists, akin to areas of Pakistan and the Arabian peninsula....In recent weeks, ISIS fighters have adopted a strategy of dropping back—taking rear positions—as rebels with the FSA alliance leave for front lines to fight government forces, allowing ISIS to build a presence in towns and villages left without security or services....As the U.S. threat receded, emboldened ISIS militants ramped up efforts to win local support, said Hamid Ibrahim, a spokesman for FSA leader Gen. Salim Idriss."They are telling them: 'We told you that you can't depend on America for freedom. Don't be fooled—you only have us,' " Mr. Ibrahim said.
AQ seizes town on Syria-Turkey border … from other rebels
POSTED AT 8:41 AM ON SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 BY ED MORRISSEY
A strategic crossing into Turkey from Syria may soon be in the hands of al-Qaeda after infighting among Syrian rebels broke out into open warfare. The assault on Azaz did not come from rebels against the Bashar al-Assad regime, but from al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Nusra Front against the Free Syrian Army, which had previously held Azaz:
Al-Qaeda-linked militants seized a key northern Syrian town from rebels on Wednesday, as mounting friction between anti-government extremists and more moderate, Western-backed opposition factions erupted into all-out conflict.The town of Azaz, two miles from the Turkish border, was overrun by fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant after clashes broke out at the main hospital there. The fighting began when the al-Qaeda-linked group attempted to detain a German doctor, according to medics and activists.The fall of the town, which lies on the road between the border crossing of Bab Salameh and the northern city of Aleppo, has the potential to disrupt rebel supply lines. The crossing itself, one of the few between Syria and Turkey that are still functional, remained in the hands of the more moderate Free Syrian Army on Wednesday night, despite reports that Islamic State was mounting an offensive to take it.Although both mainstream opposition forces and al-Qaeda-linked fighters are battling the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the extremists have focused their energies lately on attacking their fellow rebels. Tensions between Islamic State and other rebel factions have been building since the group emerged on the ground earlier this year. It declared war on two mainstream rebel groups last week in what it labeled operation “cleansing evil.”
That complicates matters for the West, which used Azaz as both a conduit for aid and as an example of the effectiveness and moderation of the FSA. CNN reminds readers that John McCain used the Bab el Salama gate for his visit to Syria in his attempt to raise support for American intervention on FSA’s behalf.The FSA expressed indignation over the lack of Western assistance against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, which they now call “infidels.” However, the FSA itself admits that they let the radical Islamists into the fight themselves, as one FSA leader called for vengeance on CNN:“[ISIS] are not rebels anymore; from this point, they are terrorists now,” said Louay Almokdad, the political and media coordinator for the FSA, said in an interview broadcast live on CNN.“We are fighting two terrorist teams on two fronts; one al-Assad regime and Hezbollah militia and the Iranian revolutionary guards and the other the extremists al Qaeda, ISIS,” Almokdad added.Until recently, there had been cooperation between the two groups. …“These guys (ISIS) are infidels. They killed my brother and wounded my other brother,” said Hajouleh’s older brother, Khaled, who wept as he spoke to CNN.The elder Hajouleh said he had previously helped facilitate the arrival of foreign jihadist fighters from Turkey, some of whom volunteered to fight with the hardline ISIS militia in Syria.“I let these guys in, and I totally regret it,” said Khaled Hajouleh. “I thought these guys were coming to help us and protect us.”Hajouleh’s brother coordinated media visits to Syria on behalf of the FSA, again to bolster global support for arming the rebels in Syria. It seems very difficult to believe that they could have been that naive about the intentions of ISIS and the Nusra Front, given those groups’ publicly-stated goals of establishing a pan-Muslim caliphate based on shari’a law rather than the democracy promised by FSA leader Louay Almokdad in the video above. They probably calculated that they could use the extremists as cannon fodder while retaining control of the rebellion, which turned out to be a massive miscalculation — and a good argument for refraining from sending the FSA anything that later can shoot back at us.
and....
West Backs Down: UN Resolution Won’t Authorize Use of Force in Syria
Resolution Could Be Finalized by This Weekend
by Jason Ditz, September 18, 2013
Last week’s US-Russian deal on Syrian chemical weapons disarmament has been through a bumpy past few days, but seems to be on track again after the US and France backed off another round of attempts to get the UN to authorize war with Syria.
The nations began pushing againon the war after the UN report was released on Monday, and was threatening to destroy the deal outright since Russia was unwilling to go along with the resolution adding a “use of force” option.
It’s been incredible how many times Western officials have tried to revitalize the idea of authorizing a war in the deal, as Russia has made it clear repeatedly that they would not let that happen, and nothing has suggested that might change.
France in particular has seemed desperate to get some sort of war authorization out of all of this, with analysts saying that the Hollande government has been hoping to use its push for war on Syria to underscore its perception of France as a great power.
US: Syria Might Miss Kerry-Mandated Disclosure Date
Real Chemical Weapons Convention Date Still Weeks Away
by Jason Ditz, September 18, 2013
Over the weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry made up a 7-day “deadline” for Syria to offer its complete records on its chemical weapons arsenal. That “deadline” still isn’t anywhere in any actual law or UN resolution, but US officials are still treating it as a thing, and warning that Syria risks missing it.
Syria ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) on September 12, and under the CWC has a 30-day deadline to hand over all the data on their stockpile. That would be several more weeks, but the State Department is expecting to hold Syria to a deadline of Saturday.
The 7-day deadline was intended to be part of a US- Russia deal on the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, but US officials then delayed that resolution by trying to slip a war authorization into it, and it still hasn’t been passed.
It’s unclear where Syria stands on the deadline right now, as the last comment they made was on the 12th, indicating they were prepared to meet the 30 day version. The US has suggested they might give Syria some leeway, but they also seem eager to present missing the arbitrary deadline as some sort of show of bad faith.
While not necessarily a huge deal in and of itself, the reaction could be a good preview of the process of disarmament in the ensuing months, and in all likelihood, years. Chemical disarmament is a slow, complex process sure to be fraught with unforeseen obstacles, and plenty of chances for the US to fly off the handle at an imagined provocation.
Rebels Clash: Al-Qaeda Seizes Syria Border Town From FSA
At Least Five Secular Rebels Killed in AQI Offensive
by Jason Ditz, September 18, 2013
Another clash between Islamist and secular Syrian rebels took place today along the Turkish border, when fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) attacked the town of Azaz,ousting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) from the area.
Reports say that the fighting began when AQI fighters arrived in town, announcing their intentions to capture a German doctor working as a volunteer, and the FSA refused to hand him over. Five FSA fighters were killed.
The FSA and other secular factions have regularly come into conflict with al-Qaeda factions in recent months, and today’s fight is just the latest instance of the two sides being on the brink of violence at any given time.
The attack on Azaz might be part of a broader effort by al-Qaeda to secure border crossings into Turkey, as the town lies just outside of the major crossing north of Aleppo. Much of the fighting by AQI and other jihadist blocks with secular rebels has concentrated on taking out border regions.
Pentagon Proposes Training Syrian Rebels
CIA Already Doing So, Pentagon Wants In
by Jason Ditz, September 18, 2013
According to administration officials, the Pentagon has put forward a proposal for direct US military training and equipping of Syria’s rebel forces, formally putting the US military in direct contact with rebel fighters.
It’s a first, of sorts. The US is already training and arming Syria’s rebels, of course, but is doing so with the CIA taking the helm. That’s allowed the US to keep the details of the operations secret, but officials have also regularly bragged about the policy.
Having the Pentagon either replace or supplant the CIA efforts would theoretically give the policy more transparency, but seems primarily aimed at escalating the US role in the civil war.
General Martin Dempsey, the Joint Chiefs Chairman, had hinted at seeking Pentagon authority on the matter in recent testimony, saying that the military “knows” it can turn the moderate rebels into a viable fighting force.
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