Israel not doing cartwheels ......

http://www.debka.com/article/23281/Obama-pushes-Syrian-chemical-diplomacy-for-a-nuclear-Iran-%E2%80%93-overriding-Israel%E2%80%99s-concerns

US President Barack Obama did not wait for the Kerry-Lavrov agreement of Saturday, Sept. 14, for the eradication of Syria’s chemical weapons, to demonstrate its feasibility. The next day, he jumped in to tell Tehran that “there’s the potential for diplomatic solutions to arms standoffs,” in an interview with ABC TV.

“The Iranians understand that their pursuit of a nuclear weapon is a far larger issue for us than the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said. “My suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck [Syria] to think we won’t strike Iran.”

But that is exactly what they have understood from the way he backed out of a US military strike on Syria – and so have Moscow and Damascus.

Obama also revealed that he has exchanged letters with the new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, but did not reveal their content. He added: He (Rouhani) understands the potential for a diplomatic solution to his country’s disputed nuclear program but will not “suddenly make it easy.”

In Jerusalem, US Secretary of State John Kerry was mindful of the torrent of criticism landing on the deal he struck with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva Saturday - both at home and in the Middle East. The Syrian rebels and their backers accuse the US of betraying and ditching them in mid-war.

After meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for four hours, Kerry came out with a statement that Syrian violations of its commitment under the chemical weapons convention and its reuse of this weapon of mass destruction would make its government liable for a UN Security Council action under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows military force.

DEBKAfile’s sources note that this phrasing does not appear in the text of the US-Russian accord concluded Saturday or Geneva; not does it match the version of the accord presented by the Russian foreign minister. So a rejoinder from Moscow will likely not be long coming.

In reply to complaints that the chemical accord has done nothing to stop the Syrian civil war and the massive bloodshed now in its third year, Kerry said it was only the first step and diplomacy would continue to be pursued to bring the war to an end.

The US Secretary, who left for Paris after his long meeting with Nentanyahu, said he would be updating four allied foreign ministers on his accord with Lavrov - his British and French and also his Saudi and Turkish opposite numbers. Riyadh and Ankara, like Jerusalem, have so far chosen to keep their doubts and objections quiet.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said alongside Kerry that Syria must be stripped of chemical weapons to make region safer. But for diplomacy to have a chance to work it must be coupled with a credible military threat.

Avigdor Lieberman, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, commented that after Damascus submits its inventory of chemical stockpiles and other sites next week, as Kerry has promised, it should be compared with the lists drawn up by Israeli intelligence.

DEBKAfile: This suggestion is naïve. The Syrian inventory will first go to Moscow and after it is confirmed, referred to Washington. The Obama administration will refrain from any action that might torpedo the deal with Moscow at this early stage by questioning Syrian and Russian veracity.

Despite all the words of assurance pouring out of Washington about the credible military option in place both for Syria and Iran, the Obama administration is determined not to let Israel or any other Middle East critic upset its diplomatic momentum - either for Syria's chemical weapons or Iran's nuclear drive.

and...

http://rt.com/news/kerry-netanyahu-syria-chemical-892/

Kerry says Syrian strike 'still an option' as Israel awaits 'results, not words' from Russia-US chem deal

Published time: September 15, 2013 18:07

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) shakes hands with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem September 15, 2013.(Reuters / Larry Downing)

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Syria Says Agreement Between US And Russia Is "Victory" For Damascus, Praises "Russian Allies"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2013 10:52 -0400

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Over the weekend, the administration's damage control spin over Syria continued in full force. As Reuters reports, Obama, in an interview on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopolous," defended his handling of the Syria crisis and dismissed criticism of his zig-zag approach to the issue as an argument about style. Obama also said he and new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had exchanged letters about the situation in Syria and that the Iranians understand the U.S. concern about a potential nuclear-armed Iran "is a far larger issue" for the United States. Obama dismissed Putin's charge that it was the Syrian rebels who launched the chemical weapons attack, instead of forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Washington believes. "Well, nobody around the world takes seriously the idea that the rebels were the perpetrators of this," Obama said. Nobody perhaps, except for 9 out of 20 G-20 nations, including all of the BRIC and a major portion of America's population who have seen this exact same movie in the past.

But while Obama and Kerry were both backpedalling furiously even as they were taking full credit for pulling Syria from the brink of war where they took it, it was Syria who was rejoicing: Syria's Minister for National Reconciliation said on Sunday that the chemical weapons agreement between Russia and the United States was a "victory" for Damascus, won by its Russian allies, and had taken away the pretext for war. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on Saturday in Geneva on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to account for his chemical weapons within a week. The deal may avert U.S. military strikes.

"This agreement, an achievement of Russian diplomats and the Russian leadership, is a victory for Syria won thanks to our Russian friends," Ali Haidar told Russian news agency RIA.

"We welcome this agreement. From one point of view, it will help Syrians exit the crisis, from another, it has prevented a war against Syria, having taken away the pretext for one from those who wanted to unleash (it)," he said.

It was not clear if the comments by Ali Haidar, who is not in President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle of decision-makers, reflects the president's views.

Still, while Syria may be rejoicing, and D.C. may be happy to have put this latest foreign relations humiliation behind it, there is still a possibility that the tentative Syria agreement could still fall apart. Here is a quick summary from the WSJ of the four reasons why the hastily cobbled together chemical weapon disarmament deal could fall apart.

From WSJ:

Here are some of the deadlines laid out in the framework agreement Saturday between Messrs. Kerry and Lavrov and what could go wrong with them:

The requirement: By next Friday, Syria is required to provide a declaration of its chemical weapons stockpile to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The potential risk: Syria may not be able or willing to make a full and truthful disclosure on time. The Wall Street Journal reported recently that the regime has been moving its arsenal, and any sign that it is not acting in good faith could imperil the deal.

The requirement: Syria is required to provide “immediate and unfettered” access to OPCW inspectors.

The potential risk: Syria has shown little hospitality to international monitors, even in the very recent past. Snipers fired last month at United Nations inspectors trying to reach the site of the Aug. 21 chemical attack that precipitated the current crisis, and the regime in the past has held up the entry of U.N. workers trying to investigate evidence of chemical attacks.

The requirement: Initial inspections of Syria’s chemical weapons needs to be completed by November.

The potential risk: It’s an aggressive timetable for a country like Syria and for a war zone.

The requirement: U.S. and Russia want to dismantle all of Syria’s chemical-weapon program in the first half of 2014.

The potential risk: If the U.S. and Russia can’t get past the agreement’s first steps, they are much less likely to complete the dismantling.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/09/lavrov-accord-syria.html

The World after the Kerry-Lavrov accord on Syria

Posted on 09/15/2013 by Juan Cole

The agreement reached by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry at Geneva on Saturday regarding the sequester of Syria’s chemical weapons is a little unlikely to shorten the civil war or save many lives in Syria. But it did signal winners and losers in the region and the world.

The big losers were the anti-Baath Syria hawks, who were hoping that a US attack on Syria with cruise missiles would draw the Obama administration inexorably into the conflict on the side of the rebels.

Thus, the agreement deeply disappointed Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who wanted a US strike. In Europe, the French government had been hoping the US would go in with French help, allowing Paris to assert itself in its former Syrian colony and to insert itself into the center of world affairs again. The agreement likewise disappointed the hawks in Washington, including Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinin (R-FL) among the few US federal legislators who wants yet another war.

The winners were the Shanghai Cooperation Council and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which overlap somewhat. It is worth noting that Lavrov explicitly thanked this bloc, according to the translation of his news conference on Rossiya 24 TV:

“Today I would like to thank the BRICS countries and the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and many other countries for their principled support for the approach to settling the problem of chemical weapons in Syria exclusively by peaceful means. I hope that our meeting today will allow us to start working so these expectations are not dashed.

In conclusion, I will say that the resolution of the problem of chemical weapons in Syria will be a large step towards achieving the long-standing task of creating in the Middle East a zone free of weapons of mass destruction.”

At one point in the press briefing, he was asked if he was surprised that the Chinese had just sent a warship into the Mediterranean off Syria. He said no and referred to the unity of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which groups Russia with China and the Central Asian states, and accepts Iran and India as observers. After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the SCO is the major international, multilateral organization that tends to oppose US foreign policy.

The agreement for Syria to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention and allow inspections of its chemical weapons averted a unilateral American attack on Damascus, which would have symbolically underlined that Russia is no longer a great power and has no inviolate spheres of influence. In contrast, since Lavrov put forward his plan last Monday to have Syria’s chemical weapons inspected, Russia has been treated as an equal by US diplomats. Russia has gained stature.

Moscow has also protected the Baath regime in Syria from the consequences of an American attack, which would likely have given a big boost in morale to the rebels and likewise would likely have degraded regime air capabilities.

Lavrov revealed how Moscow sees that part of the world:

“Indeed, as John said, we have disagreements, including on Syria. That is to say, we have a common goal – to achieve a peaceful resolution, and for Syria to remain a united, secular state, where all minorities and ethnic and religious groups are safe, with their rights protected. But we disagree on methods. Although here, as regards the issue of Syrian chemical weapons, we have found a common path. And this is how we should proceed on all the other issues too.”

The Putin government is backing the Syrian government in part because it sees that step as a way of protecting Syrian Christians, many of them, like many Russians, Eastern Orthodox. Ironically, at the same time the Russian government sees itself upholding the principle of secular rule against Muslim radical extremists. Syria’s Aleppo is only a 24-hour drive through Turkey from the Caucasus city of Grozny, where Russia faced substantial turmoil in the past two decades.

Russia won, the new military junta in Egypt won, Iran won, and India and Indonesia won.

The Syrian rebels complained bitterly about the accord, and declared they would go on attempting to overthrow the Baath regime.

Turkey’s religious Freedom and Justice Party was also deeply disappointed, though over 70% of Turks say they don’t want to get involved with Syria.

Saudi Arabia doesn’t typically convey its views in public, but surely Riyadh is little different from Ankara in its cold fury at the turn events have taken. The Saudis wanted the US to help overthrow the government of al-Assad.

The announcement in March of 2003 by the George W. Bush administration that the US would invade and occupy Iraq and Afghanistan regardless of what anyone else in the world thought was an announcement that the US was the sole superpower and the primary Middle East hegemon.

The Kerry-Lavrov agreement may have been the moment when the world returned to a multilateral foreign policy and the US stopped being the sole superpower. We are back to the nineteenth century when there were multiple power centers and each had its sphere of influence.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/15/us-syria-crisis-qaeda-idUSBRE98E06L20130915

(Reuters) - Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has told the Islamist militants who are some of Syria's toughest opposition forces to avoid alliances with other rebel fighters backed by Gulf Arab states and the West.

His comment reflects a deepening rift between groups of the Western- and Arab-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) and guerrillas sympathetic to Zawahri's ultra hardline network, which seeks to wage a transnational armed campaign against the West.

Division among rebel fighters, as well as the influence of hardline Islamists, is one reason Western powers have hesitated to intervene in Syria's two-and-a-half-year-old conflict, in which more than 100,000 people have been killed.

In an audio speech released a day after the 12th anniversary of the 9/11 strikes, Zawahri said the United States would try to push opposition fighters to link up with "secular parties that are allied to the West", the SITE monitoring service said.

"I warn my brothers and people in the Syria of unity and jihad against coming close to any of these groups," he said. A full translation of Zawahri's remarks, containing the passage on Syria, was published by SITE on Sunday.

Zawahri's language makes clear he is referring to the FSA. Even though not all of the FSA's constituent groups are secular, its acceptance of support from the West and Gulf Arab monarchies renders it illegitimate in the eyes of al Qaeda.

Zawahri said events in Egypt supported his argument. He was referring to the July 3 removal of Islamist president Mohamed Mursi and the subsequent killing of hundreds of Islamists in a crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, a proponent of the representative democracy al Qaeda abhors.

Rivalries have been growing between the FSA and the Islamists, whose smaller but better trained and equipped forces control most of the rebel-held parts of northern Syria.

The two sides have fought together from time to time, but the FSA, desperate for greater firepower, has recently tried to distance itself to ease U.S. fears any arms it might supply could reach al Qaeda.

In July, al Qaeda-linked militants assassinated one of the top FSA commanders, Kamal Hamami, in a demonstration of just how damaged relations have become.

Zawahri, suspected by many security specialists to be living in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area, denied what he said were assertions by the West that al Qaeda was guilty of indiscriminate attacks on markets and mosques in Syria.

"All who shed the forbidden blood of a Muslim or non-Muslim, we are innocent of this act, and if they are from us then we will seek to hold them accountable," he said.

http://rt.com/op-edge/israel-syria-chemical-weapons-disarmament-866/

Disarming Syria brings Israel’s suspected WMD arsenals into focus

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Published time: September 14, 2013 14:27

Israeli nuclear and chemical weapons manufacturing facility at Dimona (Image by Google maps)

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One way to reduce the tensions surrounding the Syrian crisis would be for Israel to also give up its alleged stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. Both Russia and the US are likely to ask Israel to dismantle its stocks.

Recently declassified CIA documents suggest that Israel secretly built up its own stockpile of chemical and biological weapons decades ago. This has added more fuel to the lingering complaint of Arab states, who accuse Israel of possessing nuclear weapons.

Syria has often spoken of its estimated 1,000-ton chemical weapons stockpile as a deterrent against another military conflict with Israel.

“The chemical weapons in Syria are a mere deterrence against the Israeli nuclear arsenal,” announced Syrian UN Ambassador Bashar Jaafari, referring to the declassified CIA report on Israel's chemical weapons program.

“It's a deterrent weapon and now the time has come for the Syrian government to join the CWC as a gesture to show our willingness to be against all weapons of mass destruction,” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, generally perceived in the west as Syria’s main protector, said Tuesday: “It's well known that Syria has a certain arsenal of chemical weapons and the Syrians always viewed that as an alternative to Israel's nuclear weapons.”

Now the Syrian government is suggesting it may not decommission its chemical weapons stockpiles unless its neighbors do likewise.

“The main danger of WMD is the Israeli nuclear arsenal,” said Bashar Jaafari, Syria's ambassador to the UN, last Thursday, stressing that Israel also possesses chemical weapons but “nobody is speaking about that.”

Such statements put the Syrian chemical weapons crisis into a new perspective. The US administration has for decades refused to discuss Israeli arsenals that allegedly contain nuclear warheads. By bringing the issue to an international discussion, Damascus might put the Obama administration into an awkward position.

There has already been a reaction from Washington, when the State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said that the US will never accept attempts to compare Syrian regime with “thriving democracy” of Israel which “doesn't brutally slaughter and gas its own people,” she said.

Traditionally, Israeli officials never comment on accusations that the country possesses WMD, pointing out that Israel lives under constant threats from Middle East countries such as Iran, Lebanon and Syria.

Israel signed the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which came into force in 1997, but has never ratified it. It remains to be seen whether Tel Aviv will now ratify it, as well the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention.

“Some of these states don't recognize Israel's right to exist and blatantly call to annihilate it...These threats cannot be ignored by Israel, in the assessment of possible ratification of the convention,” the WDSJ reported Israeli government spokesman Jonathan Peled as saying.

Israeli soldiers stand near an "Iron Dome" battery, a short-range missile defence system, designed to intercept and destroy incoming short-range rockets and artillery shells, near Jerusalem (AFP Photo)

So far, the CWC has been signed and ratified by 189 countries, with only seven states refusing to join the Convention.

On Thursday, Syria’s UN envoy announced that his country had technically joined the CWC.

“Legally speaking Syria has become, starting today, a full member of the [CWC] convention,” Syrian UN Ambassador Bashar Jaafari said, after submitting Syria’s documents to the UN. He said that President Bashar Assad had signed a decree approving Syria’s accession to the convention, with the country’s Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem also informing the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons of Damascus’s decision to join the convention.

But an anonymous source in the UN told Reuters that the organization is still busy studying the documents.

“I think there are a few more steps they have to take [before Syria is a signatory] but that's why we're studying the document,” a UN official told Reuters.

The Washington Post reported that the Obama administration does not exclude the possibility that Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles could be taken to Russia for utilization, though Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Saturday there was no plan yet as to which country will take on the task.

Syria agreed to give up its chemical weapons after several hundred people died in a gas attack in a suburb of Damascus on August 21. Washington accused the Assad government of staging the attack and threatened to launch missile strikes against military targets inside the country. The Syrian government flatly denied all the allegations, blaming the rebel forces backed by the west and the Gulf states for the chemical attack. Considering the imminent threat of foreign invasion, Damascus agreed to Moscow’s proposal to give up chemical weapons altogether.

Saturday’s talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, resulted in a preliminary agreement on decommissioning Syria’s chemical weapons and for a Geneva-2 peace conference to resolve the crisis politically.

While Kerry stressed possible sanctions and punishment to be implemented on the Assad government if it fails its honor its promises, Lavrov said the general aim was to make the Middle East a place “free of WMD.”

Once Syria joins the Chemical Weapons Convention, only Israel, Angola, Burma, Egypt, North Korea and South Sudan will remain outside the group.

Catharsis Ours

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Kerry says Syrian strike 'still an option' as Israel awaits 'results, not words' from Russia-US chem deal

Syria Says Agreement Between US And Russia Is "Victory" For Damascus, Praises "Russian Allies"

The World after the Kerry-Lavrov accord on Syria

Disarming Syria brings Israel’s suspected WMD arsenals into focus

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