Commentary on the economic , geopolitical and simply fascinating things going on. Served occasionally with a side of snark.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Keys to Secure areas of the DC Metro System including tunnels recently stolen ? Aerial mapping of DC by a US Navy blimp recently launched and ongoing through October 5 th ? a sudden bank glitch on September 26th in the UK , followed by the very sudden and unexpected 5 day bank holiday imposed by Banco National - commencing on September 27 and in effect through October 1 , 2013 ? Are these coincidental and unrelate oddities , were they foreshadowing events - in light of Greece , Italy and US political dramas that have unfolded this weekend ? And what about the cyber attack drills coming during October ?
( Incident on September 19 , 2013 ....Why would ordinary thieves want to steal keys which give them access to secure DC Metro System areas - including tunnels ? Keep in mind the robbery of the fire truck occurred around 4:30 am while the fire truck crew were taking part in a rescue , the thieves took not just the keys but also a forcible entry device called a hydra ram , they were dressed in black and had ski masks on - sounds like the were expecting the fire truck as compared with a spur of the moment random ripoff by opportunists , right ? So the next question is why might someone want those keys and a forcible entry device ? )
Keys to Secure Areas of the D.C. Metro System Stolen in Front of Pentagon
A set of keys allowing access to secure areas of the D.C. Metro system, including tunnels, was stolen from a fire engine on a medical call last week in Arlington, Va.
Last week just blocks from the pentagon, two men wearing black clothes and ski masks stole keys to the DC metro system from a fire truck. The robbery happened between 4:00AM and 4:30AM just blocks away from the pentagon, in one of the most secure and highly policed areas of the country.
According to CNN an on-board video-camera captured images of the thieves as they either approached or departed the truck, Arlington Police Department spokesman Dustin Sternbeck said. Both Sternbeck and Metro spokesman Dan Stessel said numerous items were lifted, including the Metro keys. Both declined to say how many keys were taken, or what the keys opened.[1]
Police have also refused to release any information on the robbery, and it is likely that no suspects will be found.
Arlington County Fire Department released the following statement:
“Measures have been taken to prevent it from happening in the future. Details can not be released, for security reasons.”[2]
Local authorities are downplaying the robbery and the possibility that it could be linked to a terrorist threat. Police are saying that since multiple items were stolen, that the keys were not the target, however they are surely the most vital thing to be stolen.
Sources:
[1] Thieves strike at DC rescue scene, steal subway keys - CNN
[2] Keys With Metro Access Stolen from Va. Fire Engine - NBC
( Aerial mapping of DC area starts September 21 , 2013 and runs through October 5 , 2013 .... wonder what this is for , as they don't say what the purpose for this mapping might be ?
Navy Airship to Conduct Operations in the DC Metro Region
The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the Navy's sole Science & Technology research squadron, Scientific Development Squadron ONE (VXS-1), will operate the MZ-3A lighter-than-air "blimp" in the regions surrounding Washington, D.C. beginning Sept. 21.
Owned by the U.S. Navy, the MZ-3A is stationed at Naval Air Station, Patuxent River, Md. (PAX) and is operated under the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and Scientific Development Squadron ONE (VXS-1). (Photo: U.S. Navy)
Operating under the special approval of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Navy MZ-3A will conduct aerial mapping operations within the Washington D.C. Flight Restriction Zone (DCA-FRZ) at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, (USDA-ARS) Beltsville, Md., and at U.S. Army Fort Belvoir located in Fairfax, Va.
In addition, the MZ-3A will conduct mapping operations within the DCA-Special Flight Restrictions Area (DCA-SFRA) and at times will traverse the region to the north to Frederick Municipal Airport (FDK) in Maryland and to the southwest near Culpepper, Va., (CJR) before ending operations Oct. 5 and departing to the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Lakehurst, N.J.
During special flight operations, the FAA will issue pertinent Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) information regarding visual and instrument (VFR/IFR) flight plans to the region and at all times will maintain radio communication and flight following as required or requested on designated and approved Air Traffic Control (ATC) radio frequencies.
The MZ-3A is government-owned and contractor-operated. The contractor, Integrated Systems Solutions, Inc., (ISSI) employs highly qualified commercial blimp pilots whom the Navy has approved to command the airship. ISSI airship pilots have completed Special Awareness Training for the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area and have previously operated within the DCA SFRA/FRZ.
Built by American Blimp Corporation, the MZ-3A is propeller-driven by two 180 horsepower Lycoming engines producing a top speed just under 50 knots with an operational payload capability of up to 2,500 pounds. The manned 178-foot LTA craft can remain aloft and nearly stationary for more than twelve hours, performing various missions in support of technology development for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) concepts.
http://beforeitsnews.com/military/2013/09/2-us-nuke-commander-suspended-2455688.html ( Another oddity - just learning about this now although the US's number two nuclear Commander suspended weeks ago ? )
While we consider these oddities off to the side , keep in mind an apparent Government shutdown here in the US is set for October 1 , this week has seen Italy and Greece's political situations become much more complicated due to the arrests of many leading Golden Dawn leaders / members in Greece , coupled with PDL Ministers resigning en masse from Italy's Coalition Government . And then of course there is the sudden bank holiday in Panama ( of The National Bank of Panama ) which has garned no mention by the msm here - from September 27 , 2013 through October 1 , 2013.... an on the scene update on Panama below...
In the wake of yesterday’s breaking news that the Bank of Panama has closed for 5 days for a Bank Holiday, we reached out to SD reader PK, an ex-pat living in Panama for a boots-on-the-ground report on the Bank Holiday. PK reports that with BancoNational shut down for a 5 day bank holiday, Panamanians “are talking about nothing else except this bank holiday“, and states that while there is no massive panic yet in Panama, it is NOT NORMAL for the national bank to shut down for 5 days without warning on an end-of-the-month payday weekend. PK’s full report on the BancoNational bank holiday is below:
Panama banking report. I just came back from town. It is 10:39 eastern standard time, we don’t use daylight savings here.
I went to my bank, MultiBank which was open and withdrew a large amount of money. No questions asked. All 20′s. I needed a big bag to walk out with this. There was only one person ahead of me in line. Monday, I will return and do the same thing. I also went to my other Bank, BancoGeneral, and withdrew 500 dollars from the machine. There was only one person ahead of me. Apparently there is no panic here as of yet.
My wife went into a few tiendas just to get the feel of things. The wives are talking about nothing else except this bank holiday. BancoNational is the National bank. This is where all the pensioners etc do their business as this bank is where all pensions get deposited or at least the vast majority of them. On Payday, which is twice per month you would expect lines at the bank going out into the street and 2 police officers gaurding the chaos. Of course, the bank is closed for the next several days.
I didn’t notice anything unusual in town. The town is packed with people doing normal business buying food etc as this is the payday weekend. No panic. The bars are full now, very early with the men drinking beer which is normal very early in the morning. I did notice several men bringing in containers full of change so they could buy cheap beer.
So, there is a problem but no one is panicking yet.
I have zero trust in the system so I will be preparing and storing cash in the safe. I have preps also. This incident is a harginger for the future that is for sure.
It is not normal for a bank to close down on payday weekend when people need to buy food if this is nothing more than a shutdown for administrative purposes. Count on that.
It is my guess that nothing is going to come of this banking holiday. It is a set up. Get the people used to it. Make it seem normal, like a power outage or a water outage. Then, when the big bank holiday needs to happen no one would be the wizer. There are a lot of banks in Panama. I think at least several hundred. Panama is a very important banking hub for the rich to hide money. This incident needs to be seen as a harbinger for future bailins.
( Another glitch or a beta test - this occurred on September 26 , 2013 - one day before Banco Panama suddenly announced the five day bank holiday ! Funny how these glitches wipe out account balances , deleted accounts , resulted in denial of access to accounts - but credit card and mortgage debt left untouched and in place ? Selective glitches ? )
At this time of the month it might not be that unusual to log on to your online banking and find it somewhat depleted, but customers at Nationwide building society were shocked yesterday to find they apparently had no cash at all.
Following a computer glitch, which wiped balances and deleted accounts, savings and current account customers reported a range of problems, with some unable to access the website at all and others finding their accounts were not showing.
On Twitter, one customer said he had tried to access his account only to be told “it doesn’t look like you have an account with us”, while another tweeted, “Make all of my savings accounts & current account disappear and leave me with just my credit card and mortgage. Thanks #Nationwide”.
The society, which has been heavily advertising its current accounts and said on Wednesday that it had seen a 79% uplift in switching, said the problems had lasted less than a couple of hours and affected only a small number of customers.
A spokesman said: “Some of our customers were unable to access their accounts this morning due to a technical issue. This has now been fixed and we apologise for any inconvenience this has caused.”
( big cyber attack drill involving a thousand banks set for 10/16 and 10/17 - the latter date of course is when the US is set to run out of money unless the debt ceiling is raised once again.... )
More than 1,000 banks will test their incident response strategies by participating in a simulated cyber-attack exercise. SWACHA's Dennis Simmons says the drill, which is open to more participants, will help bolster defenses.
Banks are interested in testing their defenses in the wake of recent cyber-attacks, says Simmons, president and CEO of SWACHA, a regional payments association. Those attacks include account-takeover attempts linked to phishing and ACH and wire fraud, as well as distributed-denial-of-service attacks that are sometimes waged as modes of distraction to veil fraud.
"[The simulation] helps an institution understand its own internal communication and internal response to these types of incidents," Simmons says in an interview with Information Security Media Group. And the drill can help banks and credit unions update their cyber-attack response plans.
Educating banking institutions about the possible risks they face during a cyber-attack is a goal of the simulated attacks, he says. For example, he points out: "The bad guys may launch a DDoS attack to divert attention [so they can] hijack an account or initiate fraudulent wire transfers."
Open to More Participants
Banks can still sign up at the FS-ISAC website to participate in the two-day drill in October, which is sponsored by SWACHA, along with NACHA-The Electronic Payments Association; the Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Center; and numerous state banking associations.
Banking institution employees participating in the simulated attacks will be e-mailed attack scenarios and then asked to develop response strategies, he explains. "It's a tabletop exercise. All you need to participate is an e-mail address and telephone."
During this interview, Simmons discusses:
Communication challenges banking institutions face in the wake of a cyber-attack;
Why payments breaches and network vulnerabilities are getting more attention; and
How law enforcement is working with SWACHA, FS-ISAC and others to encourage more cyberattack simulations.
Quick Q&A on the looming Government shutdown , debt ceiling drama and implications for both......As you will recall the Government shutdown , if it occurs , would commence October 1 , 2013 .... correspondingly , Treasury Secretary Jacl Lew has gone on the record to say all stop gap measures for continued spending will be exhausted and thus the Government would be tapped out on or about October 17 , 2013.....
The Government Shutdown Looms: A Q&A On What Happens Next
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 10:12 -0400
With a government's October 1 shut down - temporary of course - now seemingly inevitable, and more importantly with the peak debt ceiling negotiations due in just about a week after which point the Treasury will run out of money, many wonder what comes next. That this is happening just two short years after the dramatic August 2011 debt ceiling impasse, when the market tumbled 20% and likely slowed economic growth is still fresh in everyone's mind, is hardly helping matters. Add a potential political crisis in Greece and Italy, and suddenly a whole lot of unexpected variables have to be "priced in."
Courtesy of AP, here are questions and answers about how the two standoffs, now intertwined, could affect the economy and financial markets:
Q. What exactly will happen within the next days and weeks?
A. The most urgent deadline is for Congress and the White House to agree to keep funding the government after the current budget year ends Monday. Otherwise, some of the government would have to shut down. The House and Senate are considering bills to fund the government past the deadline. But House Republicans want to cut off funding for President Barack Obama's health care law as a condition of passing the spending measure. Senate Democrats and the White House have balked. Unless one side essentially blinks, a partial shutdown of the government will occur.
Q. What would be the effect on the economy if the two sides miss the deadline for passing the spending measure?
A. About one-third of the government will shut down. About 800,000 of about 2.1 million federal employees will be sent home without pay. National parks will close.
NASA will continue to keep workers at Mission Control in Houston and elsewhere to support the International Space station, where two Americans and four other people live. Aside from that only about 3 percent of NASA's 18,000 workers will keep working.
The military and other agencies involving safety and security would continue to function. These include air traffic controllers, border patrol and law enforcement officers. Social Security, Medicare and veterans' benefits payments would continue, but there could be delays in processing new disability applications.
A partial shutdown that lasts no more than a few days wouldn't likely nick the economy much. But if the shutdown were to persist for two weeks or more, the economy would likely begin to slow, economists say.
Extended closures of national parks would hurt hotels, restaurants and other tourism-related businesses. Delays in processing visas for overseas visitors could interrupt trade. And the one-third of the federal workforce that lost pay would cut back on spending, thereby slowing growth.
A three-week shutdown would slow the economy's annual growth rate in the October-December quarter by up to 0.9 percentage point, Goldman Sachs estimates. If so, the growth rate next quarter would be a scant 1.6 percent, compared with the 2.5 percent that many economists now forecast.
Q. What about the federal borrowing cap? First of all, what is it?
A. It's a legal limit on how much debt the government can pile up. The government accumulates debt two ways: It borrows money from investors by issuing Treasurys. And it borrows from itself, mostly from Social Security revenue.
Q. What if Congress can't agree to raise the cap in time?
A. It could be disastrous. No longer authorized to borrow, the government would have to pay its bills only out of the revenue it gets from taxes and fees. This would force the government to immediately slash spending by 32 percent, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates. Most analysts think the government would delay paying each day's bills until it had accumulated enough money to pay them all.
Even worse, the government could miss interest payments on Treasurys, triggering a first-ever default by the U.S. government. U.S. Treasurys are held by banks, governments and individuals worldwide. Ultimately, a prolonged default could lead to a global financial crisis.
At the same time, Social Security and other benefit payments would be delayed. Government contractors might not be paid and would likely lay off workers. Paychecks for military personnel could be delayed.
The government actually reached its borrowing limit back in May. Since then, the Treasury has taken a variety of measures to avoid exceeding it. But the cash generated by those measures will run out sometime between Oct. 22 and Oct. 31, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates.
The date isn't exact because it isn't possible to foresee precisely how much revenue the government will receive and when.
Q. Will the economy escape harm if both deadlines are met?
A. Probably. But even brinksmanship can have consequences. The last major fight over the borrowing cap, in the summer of 2011, wasn't resolved until hours before the deadline. Even though the deadline was met, Standard & Poor's issued the first-ever downgrade of long-term U.S. credit. That, in turn, led to a 635-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average the next day.
In August that year, consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since April 2009, when the economy was in recession. Spending at retail stores weakened.
"The fallout nearly caused the fragile economic recovery to stall," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
The International Monetary Fund estimated last month that U.S. budget disputes, like the 2011 showdown, can slow annual growth by up to 0.5 percentage point in other parts of the world.
The Government Accountability Office later estimated that just the threat of default escalated the government's borrowing costs that year by $1.3 billion, or about 0.5 percent.
The drawn-out fights can cause Americans to delay major purchases, such as for cars or appliances, says Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. And they can erode confidence in the United States as a place to do business. Employers become less willing to expand and hire.
On Friday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers and several other business groups urged Congress to fund the government and raise the borrowing limit.
"It is not in the best interest of the employers, employees or the American people to risk a government shutdown that will be economically disruptive and create even more uncertainties for the U.S. economy," the groups said.
Q. All this sounds pretty scary. Why aren't financial markets panicking?
A. Stock prices have fallen in six of the past seven days, partly because of the looming deadlines. But the price declines have been modest. Many investors likely feel they have seen this movie before and know how it ends: with another last-minute deal.
"After several rounds of fiscal brinksmanship ... markets may be somewhat desensitized to the headlines," Alec Phillips, an economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients.
Drop dead date from Treasury Secretary Lew.... October 17 , 2013
Secretary Lew Sends Debt Limit Letter To Congress
By: Brandi Hoffine
9/25/2013
Today, Secretary Lew sent the following letter to Congress regarding the debt limit.
***
September 25, 2013
The Honorable John A. Boehner
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Speaker:
I am writing to follow up on my previous letter regarding the debt limit and the Department of the Treasury's ability to continue to finance the government.
As I have written previously, Treasury's estimates are subject to inherent variability due to a variety of factors, such as the impact of sequestration and the challenges of forecasting the timing and amount of daily government transactions. On August 26, I wrote to inform you that the extraordinary measures we are employing to preserve borrowing capacity would be exhausted in the middle of October. We estimated that, at that point, we would have approximately $50 billion to fund the government - an amount insufficient to cover net expenses for a meaningful period of time.
Since August, we have received quarterly corporate and individual tax receipts and additional information regarding the activities of certain large trust funds, including military retirement trust funds. Treasury now estimates that extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than October 17. We estimate that, at that point, Treasury would have only approximately $30 billion to meet our country's commitments. This amount would be far short of net expenditures on certain days, which can be as high as $60billion. If we have insufficient cash on hand, it would be impossible for the United States of America to meet all of its obligations for the first time in our history.
The House of Representatives recently passed legislation that includes an ill-advised provision to prioritize payments, which would not protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Any plan to prioritize some payments over others is simply default by another name. The United States should never have to choose, for example, whether to pay Social Security to seniors, pay benefits to our veterans, or make payments to state and local jurisdictions and health care providers under Medicare and Medicaid. There is no way of knowing the damage any prioritization plan would have on our economy and financial markets. It would represent an irresponsible retreat from a core American value: We are a nation that honors all of its commitments.
The debt limit impasse that took place in 2011 caused significant harm to the economy and a downgrade to the credit rating of the United States. The drawn-out dispute caused business uncertainty to increase, consumer confidence to drop, and financial markets to fall. If Congress were to repeat that brinksmanship in 2013, it could inflict even greater harm on the economy. And if the government should ultimately become unable to pay all of its bills, the results could be catastrophic.
The President remains willing to negotiate over the future direction of fiscal policy, but he will not negotiate over whether the United States will pay its bills for past commitments. Extending borrowing authority does not increase government spending; it simply allows the Treasury to pay for expenditures Congress has already approved. As such, I respectfully urge Congress to act immediately to meet its responsibility by extending the nation's borrowing authority.
Sincerely,
Jacob J. Lew
While the Federal Government might be running out of money , Iran meets with 5 + 1 Group for nuclear talks ...
Iran And US Agree To New Nuclear Talks
Foreign Secretary William Hague says there has been a "big improvement in the tone and spirit" from Iran over nuclear talks.
Video: The meeting is a small step along the diplomatic road
Iran and world powers including the US have agreed to nuclear talks in Geneva next month.
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said talks between Iran, Germany and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council were "substantial" and have set the stage for a new round of negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme.
Speaking after the UN meeting, Lady Ashton told reporters all parties had agreed to "go forward with an ambitious timeframe".
She said senior negotiators would meet on October 15 and 16.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said here had been a "big improvement in the tone and spirit" from Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The meeting marked the highest-level direct contact between the US and Iran in six years as US Secretary of State John Kerry sat next to Mr Zarif.
After bilateral talks with his Iranian counterpart, Mr Kerry said: "Needless to say, one meeting and a change in tone, which was welcome, doesn't answer those questions yet and there is a lot of work to be done."
Hassan Rouhani speaking at the UN earlier
Mr Zarif criticised UN sanctions on Iran as he left the meeting, calling for them to be removed "as we move forward".
The meeting came after Iran's President Hassan Rouhani told a UN General Assembly meeting on nuclear disarmament that "no nation should possess nuclear weapons".
"As long as nuclear weapons exist, the risk of their use, threat of use and proliferation persist. The only absolute guarantee is their total elimination," he said.
Iran is accused by Western countries of seeking an atomic bomb but Tehran insists that its nuclear programme is aimed at peaceful energy production.
Dr Rouhani, a self-described moderate, has urged a quick resolution of a standoff with Western powers over the programme.
Earlier, he told the Washington Post that he was keen to reach an agreement within three months.
He told the newspaper: "If it's three months that would be Iran's choice, if it's six months that's still good. It's a question of months, not years."
The five permanent members of the Security Council include China, France, Russia, the US and UK.
Hi Fred, I stayed caught up on the reading of your website this weekend, just not the commenting. Some amazing things going on in Greece and Italy. And may I say screw the Saudis, I would support going to war against them in a heart beat.
Futures down this morning, gold up a little and Bitcoin's up in the 140's. I know Bitcoins are manipulated but they look to be less so then the PM market.
Morning Kev - quite the weekend when you look at what happened elsewhere ! Greece and Italy on center stage ( I wonder when the bad bank issues in Spain pop up again though ) , German figuring out Merkel sold them a bill of goods , situation is Kenya with West gate Mall quite murky , Fukushima still a rolling clusterfuck , Asia down but not screaming sells - same with Europe .. US Futures off but not screaming sells - still complacency abounds I believe ? Bitcoin probably not front and center as the manipulators have their hands full elsewhere !
Owned by the U.S. Navy, the MZ-3A is stationed at Naval Air Station, Patuxent River, Md. (PAX) and is operated under the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and Scientific Development Squadron ONE (VXS-1).
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Owned by the U.S. Navy, the MZ-3A is stationed at Naval Air Station, Patuxent River, Md. (PAX) and is operated under the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and Scientific Development Squadron ONE (VXS-1).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 10:12 -0400
Hi Fred, I stayed caught up on the reading of your website this weekend, just not the commenting. Some amazing things going on in Greece and Italy. And may I say screw the Saudis, I would support going to war against them in a heart beat.
ReplyDeleteFutures down this morning, gold up a little and Bitcoin's up in the 140's. I know Bitcoins are manipulated but they look to be less so then the PM market.
Morning Kev - quite the weekend when you look at what happened elsewhere ! Greece and Italy on center stage ( I wonder when the bad bank issues in Spain pop up again though ) , German figuring out Merkel sold them a bill of goods , situation is Kenya with West gate Mall quite murky , Fukushima still a rolling clusterfuck , Asia down but not screaming sells - same with Europe .. US Futures off but not screaming sells - still complacency abounds I believe ? Bitcoin probably not front and center as the manipulators have their hands full elsewhere !
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