Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Turkey's political leadership must be very nervously watching Egypt and Turkey's protesters now have a roadmap on removing Prime Minister Erdogan and his governmemnt set before them !

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-030713.html

Egyptian nightmare for Erdogan
By Victor Kotsev

ISTANBUL- While the Turkish government spent much of the last couple of years branding itself as a paradigm for Egypt and other Arab Spring countries, the reverse is now taking place: Egypt is becoming the nightmare scenario for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The violent phase of the protests in Istanbul, Ankara and other Turkish cities is over, for now, but the struggle to set their legacy has only just begun, and Erdogan would be well-advised to take a lesson from the mistakes of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.

True, the danger of a military coup in Turkey at the moment is close to zero, if only because Erdogan has locked up an entirearmy college (some 330 officers) on charges of plotting against him. But the parallels between the two countries run far beyond the superficial. For the record, so too did Egyptian still-President Mohammed Morsi try to purge the army last year, although he only removed a few top generals. 


Most importantly, both countries are experimenting with moderate political Islam, and the experiments have produced mixed result as far as genuine democracy is concerned. It is true that Islamic radicals (extremists) and Islamic conservatives (moderates) are two very different species which have fought in the past, and it is also true that the Turkish government, in particular, has implemented a number of popular reforms. However, another fact is that the moderate Islamists' majoritarian understanding of democracy is radically different from that of more liberal constituencies present in both countries.

The Turkish and the Egyptian governments - both democratically elected - have cracked down on the press, rolled back some civil liberties and planned to change the constitutions in ways many citizens found unacceptable. Enter Taksim square and Tahrir v. 2.0.

The dangers of social friction become more acute as the economy declines. Egypt is in dire straits, while Turkey is currently widely lauded as an economic miracle, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe. Erdogan deserves much of the credit for this, though the painful economic reforms executed by the previous government, which led to its downfall, also contributed.

However, there is a growing financial bubble in Turkey. Whether it is fueled by hot Arab money or by Western investors seeking to escape the low returns in the US and Europe as well as the dangers of Greece and other countries offering higher yields, many analysts expect it to pop in the next year or two. What would happen then is anybody's guess.

Turkey, similarly to Egypt, has experienced many military coups in the past decades, the most recent one in 1997. And while the danger has been neutralized for now, remnants of the deep state, where the military continues to be embedded, remain powerful. So when Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc threatened to unleash the army on the demonstrators some two weeks ago, he was playing with fire, just as the Egyptian authorities were forced to do when they sent the army to quash riots in the city of Port Said earlier this year.

At present, the Turkish demonstrators are resorting to more creative means of protest and attempts to strengthen the grassroots democratic culture. They are gathering in the evenings in parks and other public forums, standing still as a way of conveying their disagreement with the government or discussing their strategy and planning boycotts. The main banks and businesses such as Starbucks and Burger King, which closed their doors to people running from the brutal crackdown of the police, are losing customers and revenue.

Though most protesters say that more people need to join them in order for the boycotts to succeed, this strategy has already scored some victories. After losing some US$21 million of bank deposits in just a few days, the CEO of one of the largest lenders, Garanti, came out in support of the demonstrations.

More broadly, if the Turkish demonstrators can consolidate and come up with a working grassroots version of participatory democracy, they would avoid the pitfalls in which the Egyptian opposition is currently trapped. The Occupy-style tent camp in Gezi park which lasted some two weeks before being stormed with tear gas canisters, rubber bullets and water cannon mixed with pepper-spray chemicals arguably set the foundations of such a culture. Scenes of anti-capitalist Muslims praying in public with militant Marxists standing by on guard against the police sent a powerful message that reverberated in Turkish society.

"Gezi Park proved that all identities could live and function together in Turkey," said Eran Ozbek, an activist. "This did not happen for the last 30 years, since the coup in 1980. Since then, the majority of the Turkish people tried to avoid political or social statements and simply joined those who were in power. ... This was not only a riot against the government, it was a kind of waking up in the political sense, social sense, sexual sense, whatever defines a society."

"Consciously or unconsciously, this is the growing up of a nation," said Ali Sever, a doctor.

But the government is trying to push a different narrative, blaming a long list of divergent groups such as the deep state, the Jewish community, international media, soccer hooligans and Iranian agents for colluding in a conspiracy to overthrow it. It is a dangerous and short-sighted strategy.

It is true that some political groups attempted to take advantage of the protests for their own benefit. Furthermore, in the course of clashes with the police, protesters threw stones and bottles and vandalized a number of properties. Both of these factors contributed to the withdrawal of many people from the demonstrations.

But the protests started peacefully, and to a large degree remained relatively peaceful. The well-documented disproportionate use of police force which resulted in several deaths and over 7,000 injuries, some severe, and included attacks on journalists, doctors and medical facilities, was arguably a provocation in its own right.

Videos of police or police-affiliated thugs shooting slingshots at protesters (click here and here), though difficult to verify, suggest further disturbing anomalies.

Even ardent government supporters voice criticism, at least with the initial police violence.

"Erdogan was unfairly persecuted and criticized for a long time, and I understand why he came to see the protests as a continuation of this campaign," said Suheyb Ogut, a PhD student in Sociology who praised Erdogan's economic and healthcare reforms, his attempts to solve the Kurdish conflict and his initiative to allow women with headscarves back into the public space, among other reforms.

"The harsh response of the police in the beginning was because of this. But it's not true, and we told him he was wrong, and he changed his approach."

Whether the government has truly learned a lesson remains to be seen. Recently it announced plans to crack down on social media dissent and to expand police privileges, rebuffing the demands of protesters for top police figures to be fired over the crackdown.

A number of bloggers were tracked down and arrested in their homes, on charges including incitement and sedition. Others were fined hefty sums for offenses such as insulting the prime minister - a girl who preferred to remain anonymous said that she had to pay the equivalent of $13,000 because of a Facebook post.

The argument that this is done in the interest of law and order appears skewed. By contrast, a large number of government supporters who issued ugly threats in an attempt to intimidate journalists and other public figures remain free of persecution.

"My twitter account has been flooded with death threats which now read 'We will [rape] you as we kill you,'" said Amberin Zaman, The Economist's correspondent in Turkey, in an email. Hers is by far not the only case.

It is not yet clear if Erdogan truly intends to proceed with a wide crackdown on all dissent, or if his speeches, which branded protesters as "looters," "traitors" and "foreign agents" who allegedly desecrated mosques and assaulted women in headscarves, are merely intended to rally his supporters for the upcoming local elections. In either case, what is widely perceived as divide-and-rule politics carries significant dangers.

The threat to Turkish democracy would be particularly grave if police attack the peaceful forums and "Standing Man" protests, quashing attempts to implement a genuine civil society. In some cases, such as in Mersin, the site of the 2013 Mediterranean Olympics, as well as in the capital Ankara, this has already happened. Other cities, such as Istanbul, have remained relatively peaceful, at least since June 22.

With suspense hanging over Turkey, the scenes in Cairo and other Egyptian cities stand as a warning sign.

Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst. 



http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-calls-on-cairo-to-stick-to-democratic-norms.aspx?pageID=238&nID=49968&NewsCatID=352

Ankara calls on Cairo to stick to democratic norms

ANKARA / CAIRO

Turkey adds its voice to the demands that Egypt’s military avoid any intervention in politics, as an army-imposed deadline passes for President Morsi to meet the ‘people’s demands’

Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood take part in a demonstration in front of the Presidential Palace 'Qasr Al Quba' in Cairo, July 2. REUTERS photo 
Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood take part in a demonstration in front of the Presidential Palace 'Qasr Al Quba' in Cairo, July 2. REUTERS photo
Ankara has called on Egyptian authorities to respect the rule of law and the people’s will by sticking to democratic norms, in an apparent reference to the army’s possible intervention into the country’s crisis-torn political scene.

For his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğludiscussed the situation in Egypt with a number of his counterparts before returning from his bilateral visit to Singapore. Davutoğlu held talks on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry as well as the British, French, Germanand Qatari foreign ministers, sources told the Daily News.

“Turkey considers the stability and security of brother and friend Egypt as crucially important for both our country and the region, and Turkey has always supported the free will of the noble Egyptian people in the Jan. 25 revolution,” a Foreign Ministry statement said today.

In a show of clear support, EU Minister Egemen Bağış hailed the firm stance of Morsi against coup plotters as the democratically elected leader of Egypt. Underlining that the worst democracy is even much better the best version of military coups, Bağış said: “Mr. Morsi tried to make very important reforms in a very short period of time, in a country with so many problems and where reforms are hard to realize."

He added that Morsi deserved the support of the entire world especially of the European Union. “We should stand against military coups everywhere in the world. We should stand together against any form of coup,” he stressed.

Army chief meets opposition leader

Egypt’s armed forces chief was meeting today with opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei and top Sunni Muslim and Coptic Christian leaders ahead of the army’s deadline due to expire at around 5 p.m. The discussions with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi focused on the road map the military threatened to impose late yesterday unless President Mohamed Morsi “meets the demands of the people,” following four days of mass protests calling for his resignation.

The talks involved al-Sisi, former U.N. nuclear watchdog chief ElBaradei, Coptic Patriarch Tawadros II and Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the grand imam of Al-Azhar, the top SunniMuslim authority. Also present were representatives of the Salafi Al-Nour Party. The Brotherhood’s political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, refused an invitation to meet al-Sisi, saying it only recognized the elected president.

“We are deeply concerned about the ‘deadly incidents’ that occurred between groups which have different opinions … The course of events should not overshadow the big and historic gains of Egypt’s Revolution. All parties should make efforts to support Egypt’s unity, democratic institutions, stability, economic development and avoid all types of violence and provocation,” the statement read. “It is always possible to find solutions to political and economic problems with dialogue where democratic mechanisms are operated.”

But Egypt’s army commander and President Mohamed Morsi each pledged his life to defy the other in early July 2 statements. The military chiefs issued a call to battle in a statement headlined “The Final Hours.” They said they were willing to shed blood against “terrorists and fools” after Morsi refused to give up his elected office.

“The price of preserving legitimacy is my life,” Morsi countered.

“In every democracy, it is a universal fact that leaders elected in polls leave their posts by election. Egyptian people and current administrators have the might to create a road map to overcome the current crisis under the framework of democratic rules. Staying under the limits of constitutional legitimacy, respecting the Egyptian people’s will will strengthen the democratic system,” the ministry statement said.

State TV taken over by military

Two army armored vehicles took up positions outside the state broadcasting headquarters on the Nile River bank, while most staff were evacuated from the building, security sources said. The state news agency MENA said civil servants were occupying the Cabinet office and would not let Prime Minister Hisham Qandil enter the building.

The official spokesman of Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood movement said supporters were willing to become martyrs to defend him. “There is only one thing we can do: we will stand in between the tanks and the president,” Gehad El-Haddad told Reuters at the movement’s protest encampment in a Cairo suburb that houses many military installations and is near the presidential palace. “We will not allow the will of the Egyptian people to be bullied again by the military machine.”

The state-run Al-Ahram newspaper said Morsi was expected to either step down or be removed from office and that the army would set up a three-member presidential council to be chaired by the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court.
July/03/2013



Ankara calls on Cairo to stick to democratic norms

ANKARA / CAIRO

Turkey adds its voice to the demands that Egypt’s military avoid any intervention in politics, as an army-imposed deadline passes for President Morsi to meet the ‘people’s demands’

Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood take part in a demonstration in front of the Presidential Palace 'Qasr Al Quba' in Cairo, July 2. REUTERS photo 
Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood take part in a demonstration in front of the Presidential Palace 'Qasr Al Quba' in Cairo, July 2. REUTERS photo
Ankara has called on Egyptian authorities to respect the rule of law and the people’s will by sticking to democratic norms, in an apparent reference to the army’s possible intervention into the country’s crisis-torn political scene.

For his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğludiscussed the situation in Egypt with a number of his counterparts before returning from his bilateral visit to Singapore. Davutoğlu held talks on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry as well as the British, French, Germanand Qatari foreign ministers, sources told the Daily News.

“Turkey considers the stability and security of brother and friend Egypt as crucially important for both our country and the region, and Turkey has always supported the free will of the noble Egyptian people in the Jan. 25 revolution,” a Foreign Ministry statement said today.

In a show of clear support, EU Minister Egemen Bağış hailed the firm stance of Morsi against coup plotters as the democratically elected leader of Egypt. Underlining that the worst democracy is even much better the best version of military coups, Bağış said: “Mr. Morsi tried to make very important reforms in a very short period of time, in a country with so many problems and where reforms are hard to realize."

He added that Morsi deserved the support of the entire world especially of the European Union. “We should stand against military coups everywhere in the world. We should stand together against any form of coup,” he stressed.

Army chief meets opposition leader

Egypt’s armed forces chief was meeting today with opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei and top Sunni Muslim and Coptic Christian leaders ahead of the army’s deadline due to expire at around 5 p.m. The discussions with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi focused on the road map the military threatened to impose late yesterday unless President Mohamed Morsi “meets the demands of the people,” following four days of mass protests calling for his resignation.

The talks involved al-Sisi, former U.N. nuclear watchdog chief ElBaradei, Coptic Patriarch Tawadros II and Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the grand imam of Al-Azhar, the top SunniMuslim authority. Also present were representatives of the Salafi Al-Nour Party. The Brotherhood’s political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, refused an invitation to meet al-Sisi, saying it only recognized the elected president.

“We are deeply concerned about the ‘deadly incidents’ that occurred between groups which have different opinions … The course of events should not overshadow the big and historic gains of Egypt’s Revolution. All parties should make efforts to support Egypt’s unity, democratic institutions, stability, economic development and avoid all types of violence and provocation,” the statement read. “It is always possible to find solutions to political and economic problems with dialogue where democratic mechanisms are operated.”

But Egypt’s army commander and President Mohamed Morsi each pledged his life to defy the other in early July 2 statements. The military chiefs issued a call to battle in a statement headlined “The Final Hours.” They said they were willing to shed blood against “terrorists and fools” after Morsi refused to give up his elected office.

“The price of preserving legitimacy is my life,” Morsi countered.

“In every democracy, it is a universal fact that leaders elected in polls leave their posts by election. Egyptian people and current administrators have the might to create a road map to overcome the current crisis under the framework of democratic rules. Staying under the limits of constitutional legitimacy, respecting the Egyptian people’s will will strengthen the democratic system,” the ministry statement said.

State TV taken over by military

Two army armored vehicles took up positions outside the state broadcasting headquarters on the Nile River bank, while most staff were evacuated from the building, security sources said. The state news agency MENA said civil servants were occupying the Cabinet office and would not let Prime Minister Hisham Qandil enter the building.

The official spokesman of Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood movement said supporters were willing to become martyrs to defend him. “There is only one thing we can do: we will stand in between the tanks and the president,” Gehad El-Haddad told Reuters at the movement’s protest encampment in a Cairo suburb that houses many military installations and is near the presidential palace. “We will not allow the will of the Egyptian people to be bullied again by the military machine.”

The state-run Al-Ahram newspaper said Morsi was expected to either step down or be removed from office and that the army would set up a three-member presidential council to be chaired by the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court.
July/03/2013

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