http://gulfnews.com/news/world/usa/syria-peace-conference-in-doubt-1.1191260
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/31/state-dept-withholds-syria-rebel-aid-citing-disarray/
US officials are citing the increasing “disarray” in the rebel leadership, particularly in the SNC, which saw its president resign in March and has been unable to settle on a new leader since.
The prospect of the war lasting years longer is what initially brought Russia and the US together to agree to work on a transition out of war. Yet even that effort, which is supposed to be capped at June’s Geneva Conference, is not looking promising.
Russian officials have made much of providing Syria with primarily defensive weapons, which are meant to deter foreign invasions of Syria, and have sought to avoid weapons that could be used in the ongoing civil war.
Syria peace conference in doubt
Russia says it will ship more weaponry to the Al Assad regime
- Guardian News & Media Ltd.
- Published: 14:43 June 1, 2013
- Comments3
London: Peace talks in Geneva between Syria’s warring parties are almost certain to be postponed after further diplomatic setbacks on Friday, as Russia announced its intention to ship more weaponry to the Bashar Al Assad regime.
Heavy fighting continued on the ground in Syria, where it emerged that a British man and American woman had been killed, apparently while fighting with the rebels in Idlib, in the north, earlier this week.
The US and Russia had together conceived the Geneva talks between the Al Assad regime and the Syrian opposition, raising hopes that the two superpowers, long at odds over the civil war raging in the country, could at last make some progress in curbing the violence.
But after the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) leader George Sabra ruled out taking part while civilians were being killed and “in light of Hezbollah and Iran’s militia’s invasion of Syria”, diplomats admitted that the talks would not take place in early June as scheduled. They remain hopeful that they will go ahead, probably in July or August.
http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-iran-hosts-peace-session-20130529,0,256378.story
Iran hosts peace conference on Syria
Participants listen to the Iranian national anthem at the start of an international conference on Syria called "Political Solution, Regional Stability," held at the Parsian Azadi hotel in Tehran. (Vahid Salemi / Associated Press / May 29, 2013)
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TEHRAN -- Iran hosted a peace conference on Syria on Wednesday titled "Political Solution, Regional Stability."
The Iranian news media dubbed the gathering in Tehran the "Friends of Syria Conference," a term used by a coalition of Western and Arab states that support the Syrian opposition forces fighting against forces loyal to President Bashar Assad.
It came as Russian and U.S. officials are trying to organize a peace conference on Syria in Geneva next month. Iran, Assad's key regional ally, has yet to be invited to the Geneva conference, spurring some observers to believe Wednesday's conference was a move by Tehran to portray itself as an important player.
Iranian media reported that officials from 40 countries and representatives from regional and international organizations were to take part in the conference. The more than two-year civil war has claimed 80,000 lives, according to the United Nations.
The Tehran conference was for "the countries that want to find a political solution," Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the foreign policy and national security commission in the Iranian parliament, told The Times when asked about the meager participation of pro-opposition countries.
He accused the West of arming Syrian opposition forces and contributing to the bloodshed during thewar. The West has accused Tehran of supporting the Assad government with weapons, logistics and troops. Iran has repeatedly denied having sent combat forces to Syria to help Assad.
Iran’s support for Syria has caused some tension with neighboring Turkey, a declared foe of the Assad regime.
"We hope Iran will accept the reality on the ground in Syria as soon as possible and that the difference of our opinion on Syria will be resolved," a Turkish diplomat at the conference who asked not to be named told The Times. "Especially as there is a continuation of the crisis spilling all over the regional countries."
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/31/state-dept-withholds-syria-rebel-aid-citing-disarray/
State Dept Withholds Syria Rebel Aid, Citing ‘Disarray’
Seeks 'More Credible Partners' for Regime Change
by Jason Ditz, May 31, 2013
Despite announcing new rounds of rebel aid every week or two, the US State Department hasn’t actually delivered the bulk of it to Syria’s rebel forces, and is withholding the $63 million pledged to the Syrian National Coalition (SNC).
US officials are citing the increasing “disarray” in the rebel leadership, particularly in the SNC, which saw its president resign in March and has been unable to settle on a new leader since.
Officials say this wasn’t “the plan” but that they are now looking for “more credible partners” for backing the rebel side in the Syrian Civil War, and imposing regime change in the nation.
At the core of this growing frustration is the US effort to put together some sort of peace conference in Geneva, apparently aiming to show Assad’s unwillingness to negotiate. Instead, Assad has agreed to join the talks, and the rebels have refused, forcing the US to back off the pretense of trying to reach a settlement and publicly concede that their priority is to impose regime change however they can get it.
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/31/white-house-priority-in-syria-is-to-oust-assad/
White House: Priority in Syria Is to Oust Assad
With Rebel-Free Talks Looming, No End in Sight for War
by Jason Ditz, May 31, 2013
Fighting in Syria’s civil war is, as ever, stalemated. The most recent fighting on the ground has seen government troops retaking some territory from the rebels, but it’s a slow and arduous journey, suggesting that the war is likely to go on for a long time to come without a real resolution.
The prospect of the war lasting years longer is what initially brought Russia and the US together to agree to work on a transition out of war. Yet even that effort, which is supposed to be capped at June’s Geneva Conference, is not looking promising.
Syria’s rebels have rejected the idea of attending, though the Assad government has agreed to take part. The US looks like it is throwing the idea of a negotiated settlement under the bus as well, with the White House insisting today that its top priority in Syria is to impose a regime change including Assad’s ouster.
Previous reports had suggested the US was warming to the idea of a power-sharing deal to end the civil war, amid fear that the violence is spreading region-wide. With today’s comments it seems the White House is back where it started, demanding a unilateral surrender from the Syrian government, and tacitly accepting an ongoing war rather than putting up with a realistic deal.
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/31/russia-in-deal-to-sell-more-than-10-mig-29-fighters-to-syria/
Russia in Deal to Sell More Than 10 MiG-29 Fighters to Syria
Shipments Aimed at Deterring Foreign Intervention
by Jason Ditz, May 31, 2013
Officials from the RSK Mikoyan company have confirmed plans to sign a deal with the Syrian government to sell “more than 10″ MiG-29M fighter jets to them. The exact number was not disclosed.
Russian officials have made much of providing Syria with primarily defensive weapons, which are meant to deter foreign invasions of Syria, and have sought to avoid weapons that could be used in the ongoing civil war.
The MiG-29 is somewhat different, is it does have some limited capabilities in attacking ground forces and could conceivably open up Russia to new criticism. Still, the warplanes are primarily designed for air-to-air combat, and with the rebels having no air force, it seems reasonable to assume they will be of only minor utility in the ongoing war.
MiG-29s and their variants have been the backbone of the Russian Air Force since the mid-1980s. Syria has a small number of the original model of the plane, but the new acquisitions would be a significant upgrade, and combined with the S-300 anti-aircraft batteries could make it difficult for foreign invaders to maintain air superiority in an attack on Syria.
http://www.stripes.com/news/breedlove-no-fly-zone-over-syria-would-constitute-act-of-war-1.223788
Breedlove: No-fly zone over Syria would constitute 'act of war'
U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who recently took charge as NATO supreme allied commander Europe, traveled to Naples, Italy, on May 30 and 31 to visit with Navy leaders and sailors as he begins making the rounds of U.S. and NATO bases under his command. He sat down with Stars and Stripes for an interview May 30.
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U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who recently took charge as NATO supreme allied commander Europe, traveled to Naples, Italy, on May 30 and 31 to visit with Navy leaders and sailors as he begins making the rounds of U.S. and NATO bases under his command. He sat down with Stars and Stripes for an interview May 30.
NAPLES, Italy — Rather than a quick and relatively painless affair, any effort to dismantle Syria’s air defenses as part of enforcing a no-fly zone would be tantamount to a declaration of war, cautioned NATO’s new military chief, Gen. Philip Breedlove.
“It is quite frankly an act of war and it is not a trivial matter,” said Breedlove, NATO’s new supreme allied commanderr and head of U.S. European Command, during a recent Thursday to Naples, Italy.
Less than a month on the job, Breedlove is facing an array of security challenges as NATO’s top military officer. As he oversees the drawdown of the alliance’s combat mission in Afghanistan, the former fighter pilot also has his sights focused on the unfolding crisis in Syria, where at least 80,000 people have been killed in the two-year civil war according to the United Nations.
Currently, NATO is not engaged in any official war planning for Syria, which requires formal North Atlantic Council approval. But that doesn’t mean commanders aren’t ruminating about what would be required if NATO were called upon, Breedlove said.
As the debate continues about whether the U.S. and its European allies should begin to arm rebel forces in Syria and possibly impose a no-fly zone over the country to help those forces in their fight against forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, Breedlove cautioned that such actions also carry risks.
“It would absolutely be harder than Libya,” said Breedlove, referring to NATO’s 2011 air bombardment that resulted in the ouster of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi. “This is a much denser, much more capable defense system than we’d faced in Libya.”
While some political leaders, such as Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., have been vocal about the need for the U.S. to arm rebel forces and support a no-fly zone, the Obama administration has so far been cautious about military involvement or sending lethal aid to rebels amid concerns that some of those fighters have ties to al-Qaida-like groups.
There is a widespread perception that setting up a no-fly zone is simply a matter of sending in some planes, Breedlove said.
“I know it sounds stark, but what I always tell people when they talk to me about a no-fly zone is … it’s basically to start a war with that country because you are going to have to go in and kinetically take out their air defense capability,” Breedlove said.
Any no-fly zone plan would be further complicated if Russia goes ahead with plans to provide Syria with advanced anti-aircraft missiles, Breedlove said. On Thursday, Assad told a Lebanese television outlet that some of Syria’s weapons contracts with Russia had been implemented, but he did not specifically mention the sophisticated S-300 anti-aircraft system. Russian media later reported that Syria would not receive the first shipment for several months.
“These are some very capable systems that are being talked about,” Breedlove said.
The S-300 is considered a top-of-the-line air defence system which can also be used to intercept ballistic missiles. Its automatic targeting system is reported to be capable of tracking 100 targets and engaging a dozen simultaneously at all altitudes and at ranges of up to 200 kilometers.
Meanwhile, concerns continue to mount over the suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria. Officials, including former SACEUR Adm. James Stavridis, have cited the potential for those weapons to be taken out of Syria as a top security concern.
How to go about securing those weapons remains an operational conundrum. Some experts, including retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, have suggested it would require about 50,000 troops to secure those sites. After more than a decade of war, even no-fly zone proponents say they oppose sending in ground troops.
Breedlove stopped short of endorsing Wald’s call for ground forces, but, without offering specific tactics, acknowledged that SECURING chemical weapons would require more than simply dropping bombs on sites.
“Without a doubt this is a very tough mission set,” he said. Whether talking about “completely eliminating them, controlling them, containing them, each of those requires a different level of effort, none of them easy. As long as the weapons can move about the country on the surface, it is a problem of controlling battle space. I think that it is a tough mission set. It cannot be done completely from the air.”
Breedlove, who is on his eighth tour in Europe, has focused mainly on Air Force and Army missions during his frequent overseas assignments. During his two-day stop in Naples, he met with officials to learn more about the Navy’s piece in the EUCOM mission.
In the years ahead, the area around the Mediterranean will be increasingly important for U.S. security interests and will factor into how forces are aligned in the years ahead, Breedlove said. A Defense Department review of its basing posture in Europe should provide an opportunity to ensure that forces are positioned to deal with emerging threats, he said.
“We are a force… that lives in a legacy positioning associated with Cold War outlooks,” Breedlove said. “We are seeing ourselves needing to be based closer to those places where we are continuing to find threats… Clearly, the Levant, the east Med, northern Africa are places we need to be positioned well to react quickly into those areas.”
While more consolidation of base infrastructure could be needed in the future, Breedlove says troop levels — down roughly 75 percent from Cold War levels — should not be reduced much further. Current drawdown plans in Europe call for about 69,000 to be stationed on the continent.
“We’re about where we need to be,” he said. “Presence is important, because presence equals trust. You can’t rotate trust. You can surge trust. You earn trust in long-term relationships. Our ability to use these European bases to project on behalf of the alliance or other objectives is about that trust, that relationship, that long-term bond you get from forward-stationed forces.”
Meanwhile, on the heels of his first trip to Afghanistan as SACEUR, Breedlove said he was optimistic over how the security transition is playing out there. Afghan security forces are already in the lead in most of the country, with U.S. forces serving almost entirely in a back-up advise and assist role, he said. “They are reaching that point where the can truly plan, execute and recover from an operation,” Breedlove said of the Afghan forces.
Still, despite that progress, there are numerous shortfalls within the Afghan force, which still depends on NATO for higher end enabling capabilities ranging from surveillance and reconnaissance to air lift support needed for personnel recovery, Breedlove acknowledged.
Nonetheless, Afghan security forces are now in a position where they should be able to stave off the enemy, limiting the Taliban’s ability to retake territory or launch major offensives as NATO steps off the battlefield, he said.
That doesn’t mean the fighting is over.
“The Taliban have not gone away,” Breedlove said. “There will continue to be bad things that happen because of their efforts.”
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