http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/17/us-slams-russias-missile-sales-to-syria/
US Slams Russia’s Missile Sales to Syria
Russia Notes Arms Are Defensive in Nature
by Jason Ditz, May 17, 2013
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey has angrily condemned Russia for following through on agreed-to arms sales to Syria, insisting the decision to deliveranti-ship missiles to the war-torn nation risked prolonging the civil war.
The US and Israel have been petitioning Russia to back out of its arms contracts with the Assad government, though Russia has refused to do so, and today defended continuing its deliveries, saying the arms they are shipping are purely defensivein nature.
Indeed, it isn’t clear how today’s deliveries of anti-ship missiles would in any way impact rebels, and as with Syria’s acquisition of anti-aircraft missiles seems to be primarily aimed at discouraging foreign invasions.
Which is in no small part exactly why the US and Israel are objecting so loudly, as Israel has been attacking Syria outright in recent weeks, and the US has been talking up its own “military options,” and while none of Russia’s sales are likely to change that, they would make an offensive war against Syria much less convenient than it otherwise would be.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-syria-crisis-nusra-idUSBRE94G0FY20130517
(Reuters) - The most feared and effective rebel group battling President Bashar al-Assad, the Islamist Nusra Front, is being eclipsed by a more radical jihadi force whose aims go far beyond overthrowing the Syrian leader.
Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say.
Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri - a shift which could extend Syria's conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes. The fighting has already cost 90,000 lives.
The break-up of an important part of Syria's opposition, already splintered into hundreds of armed groups, worsens the dilemma faced by the West as it debates whether intervention to support the rebels will result in arms being placed in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. And if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad.
"Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad," said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front.
"It is disintegrating from within."
Others said that Nusra's Syrian contingent has already effectively collapsed, with its leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani keeping a low profile and his fighters drifting off to join other rebel groups.
Nusra fighters have claimed responsibility for the deadliest bombings of the two-year-old Syrian conflict and their brigades have led some of the most successful rebel offensives against Assad's forces.
The group was formally designated a terrorist organization by the United States six months ago, a step which Washington said was vindicated by a declaration in April that it was merging with al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq. Washington now says Nusra is little more than an al Qaeda front.
A U.S. official said on Friday: "We continue to be concerned about the influence of extremist groups, including al Qaeda in Iraq. This is why we have been coordinating and discussing with partners the need to continue to strengthen the moderate opposition and channel any assistance through the moderate opposition, including the Supreme Military Council."
The U.S. moves to isolate Nusra have drawn criticism from Syrian rebels and opposition leaders, reflecting the fact that Nusra was able to win grudging support beyond its core Islamist base because of its fighters' discipline and battlefield successes.
Many Syrians turned a blind eye to the growing presence of foreign and Arab jihadi fighters in its ranks because Nusra fighters cooperated with other rebel brigades, worked to curb looting and provided help for displaced Syrians.
By contrast the head of the Islamic State of Iraq, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who has moved into northern Syria to take tighter control over al Qaeda operations in the country, has few admirers among Syrian fighters.
They see him as a brutal figure with little time for the intricacies of Syria's struggle, focused less on toppling Assad and more on imposing a radical Islamist rule including religious courts and public executions. Many accuse him privately of hijacking their revolution.
"We reject his presence here on the ground. He should take his fighters and go back to Iraq," said a Nusra source who is close to Nusra leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani. "We are not happy with the way he operates nor with his methods."
BAGHDADI STEPS IN
Baghdadi's announcement in early April that his Islamic State of Iraq was formally merging with Nusra to form the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant clearly took the Syrian Nusra rebels by surprise.
Golani said he had not been consulted and, while swearing allegiance to al Qaeda's Zawahri, insisted his fighters would continue to operate under their own Nusra Front banner.
"Golani pledged religious allegiance to Zawahri, but not political or military (allegiance)," said the Nusra source close to Golani. "It was an attempt by Golani to keep his distance from Baghdadi."
But the move did not help. Soon after, in a direct challenge to Golani, Baghdadi traveled from Iraq to a town in Syria's Aleppo province, where he was joined by Arab and foreign jihadis who had formerly fought for Golani's Nusra.
Rebels say the rift continued to widen and the foreign and Arab wing is now operating formally under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, while many Syrian Nusra fighters have dispersed to join other Islamist brigades.
"The situation has changed a lot. Baghdadi's men are working but Nusra is not working formally anymore," said another Nusra source. "Those with Baghdadi are the fiercest fighters of all. The brothers are trying to avoid them as much as possible."
The source, and other Syrian Nusra fighters who spoke to Reuters, said they feared Baghdadi's supporters would alienate Syrians in the same way that their hardline agenda turned Iraqis against them, paving the way for U.S.-backed Sahwa militias to turn the tide against al Qaeda in western Iraq in 2007.
"A TRAP FOR GOLANI"
Nusra sources said they were waiting for Zawahri to settle the issue, hoping he would call on Baghdadi to return to Iraq.
"We have two choices now. Either Zawahri announces the separation of Syria's Nusra from Iraq's Islamic State, or he orders Baghdadi to stay (in Syria) and if this happen then its a disaster," said one Nusra source. "Baghdadi has harmed the Nusra Front. He caused great damage and broke up the front."
But the Syrian rebel commander, who is from a Western-backed rebel group, said that Baghdadi already had Zawahri's blessing when he moved in.
"They set a trap for Golani," he said. "They wanted a foot inside (Syria) and helping Golani at the start with men and arms provided that, until they became stronger so they took over."
In a telling video published this week, masked fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant executed three men they said were officers from Assad's Alawite minority sect in the eastern town of Raqqa.
After the shootings there were only muted chants of support for the fighters and activists said that small protests broke out at night condemning the execution and calling on the fighters to fight Assad instead of executing people.
Several Nusra fighters said they feared that if Baghdadi's influence continued to grow, his ultra-radical agenda would see the Iraqi Sahwa phenomenon played out again in Syria.
"We as Syrians do not want a repeat of that. The Baghdadi men have declared the Nusra fighters who left him... as infidels. We still reject his state, if Zawahri does not put an end to this then the situation will get worse," one said.
The senior rebel commander said he even expected the growing clout of Baghdadi's fighters would finally end the West's reluctance to intervene militarily in Syria - not against Assad, but his hardline enemies.
"We expect soon drone attacks, like Yemen, to begin against al Qaeda members," he said.
GOLANI GOES TO GROUND
Meanwhile Golani, who was formally declared a terrorist by Washington on Thursday, is now in hiding. "He has gone to ground until the problem is solved," said a source close to Golani.
Even though few people even know what Golani looks like, and fewer still have met him, he has gained popularity among Syrians and songs have been written to celebrate his exploits.
His real name is not known even to some of his fighters and many people long suspected that he was a fictitious fighter created to give a Syrian 'front' to the Iraqi al Qaeda.
Sources say he is Syrian and in his 40s, roughly the same age as Baghdadi. He is currently in rural Damascus province, they say, accompanied by some of his remaining fighters.
Baghdadi, an Iraqi, helped fund Nusra fighters, who also had financial support from private donors in Arab Gulf countries. The Iraqi wing is financed from al Qaeda's global support network.
One Nusra fighter said he believed Baghdadi held a personal grudge against Golani because of his standing in Syria.
Golani, a radical Sunni Muslim, won popularity in Syria even among some Christians, according to the Nusra fighter. "Baghdadi did not like this," the fighter said.
"Baghdadi and the (al Qaeda) leadership consider the Muslim Brotherhood, the Free Syrian Army and other factions including Christians as infidels and when they saw Golani was on good terms with them they were not happy."
"That is why he announced the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant without any consultation with Golani, and he is in charge to operate in his old failed way."
Turkey ......
Turkey arrests 'prime suspect' over blasts |
Police say one of the main perpetrators of bombings that killed more than 50 people near Syria border has been detained.
Last Modified: 17 May 2013 14:57
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Turkish ministers have said the bombings were carried out by a group with ties to the Syrian governement [Reuters]
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| Turkish police have detained a man they believe to be one of the main perpetrators of car bombings that killed more than 50 people near the Syrian border, officials have said. Hatay governor Celalettin Lekesiz said police had detained a man, who local media named as Mehmet Genc, shortly before midnight on Thursday in Samandag district, near the Syrian border, and that he was being treated as a prime suspect. Turkey has accused Syria of involvement in the two bombings last weekend in the town of Reyhanli in Hatay province. Damascus has denied any role. Huseyin Celik, deputy chairman of Turkey's ruling AK Party, said the two vehicles used in the bombings were registered to the detained man, and that he had driven one to a blast site in Reyhanli. State-run broadcaster TRT reported on Friday that Reyhanli's police chief had been dismissed. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said this week he did not think the attacks were the result of a weakness in the intelligence services, but that there may have been a "disconnect" between them and the police. Multiple arrests Lekesiz said police were still searching for two other suspected perpetrators, who along with the latest man detained had been trying to cross over into Syria from Samandag but had failed because of stepped-up security along the border. He said the two men were believed to still be inside Turkey. A total of 16 people were in detention in relation to the bombings, Lekesiz said, four of whom were formally arrested. It was not clear what charges they faced. Ministers have said the bombings - one of the deadliest attacks in Turkey's modern history - were carried out by a group with ties to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Damascus has offered to carry out a joint investigation. Erdogan has rejected the offer and said his government would have a "road map" on the Syrian crisis after discussing the incident with Washington and other allies in the region. The Turkish prime minister met US President Barack Obama on Thursday and the two leaders reiterated their calls for Assad to step down and for an end to the killing which the UN says has killed more than 80,000 people. |
Over 160 Killed in Three Days of Iraqi Sectarian Violence
Scores Killed as Sunni Mosques Bombed
by Jason Ditz, May 17, 2013
After back-to-back days of 40 or more killed in Iraq the violence continues to rise, with a major attack on Sunni mosques killing at least 90 more people and bringing the overall toll to over 160 killed and over 400 wounded.
The bombings targeted Baquba’s Saria mosque, with a first bomb targeting worshipers leaving the mosque after Friday prayers and a subsequent bomb targeting rescuers gathered around the site of the first.
The attack comes just a day after a similar attack at the entrance to the al-Zahraa Husseiniyah, a Shi’ite mosque in Kirkuk, and points to how quickly sectarian violence can spiral out of control.
Sectarian violence has been a problem in Iraq virtually since the beginning of the US occupation, but after a period of relative calm the violence began spiking again in late April, when Iraqi soldiers attacked Sunni protesters in the north.
April was the deadliest month since Summer of 2008, when the last sectarian civil war was winding down. With violence on the rise May is shaping up to be in a similar position, leading to growing fears that this is the start of another round.
Syria’s Civil War Fueling Violence in Iraq
Prospect of Regime Change in Syria Emboldens Border Provinces
by Jason Ditz, May 16, 2013
Tensions between Iraq’s Shi’ite majority and its Sunni Arab minority are nothing new, but after a previous sectarian civil war broke out during the US occupation, many believed the Sunnis had been beating into virtually submission.
The ongoing Syrian Civil War may be doing a lot to change that, as the prospect of Western-backed regime change putting a Sunni, likely Islamist, government in charge in Syria has many in Iraq’s border provinces, themselves Sunni Arabs,seeing a key new ally emerge.
For peaceful protesters in Iraq’s west, there is a sense that the Maliki government is going to have a hard time violently crushing their rallies, and many Shi’ites in the government are concedingthat efforts to do in late Aprilso were a strategic blunder.
That’s only one part of the equation, however, and while protests against discrimination and authoritarianism may be irksome to Maliki, the much more dangerous effect of Syria is that the jihadists on both sides of the border are increasingly allied.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and Syria’s Jabhat al-Nusra are so joined at the hip the US State Department has concluded that they’re basically the same group. As Nusra takes more and more territory around the Iraqi and Jordanian borders, spillover violence and arms transfers back and forth are only going to grow, and if the war in Syria does get resolved with a regime change, it may effectively give AQI a state sponsor right along the Iraqi border.
Pakistan....
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/05/16/did-us-pause-drone-strikes-for-pakistan-election
Did U.S. Pause Drone Strikes for Pakistan Election?
Last publicly reported drone strike was one month ago
May 16, 2013 RSS Feed Print
A Pakistani girl walks past an election banner showing former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and other members of his party pasted on a rickshaw in the outskirts of Islamabad on May 13, 2013.
The skies over Pakistan have remained conspicuously clear during the recent election season, according experts on drone strikes in that part of the world.
The last recorded U.S. drone strike in or near Pakistan occurred on April 17, open source data indicates, or roughly a month before the Pakistani election that reestablished Nawaz Sharif as prime minister for the third time.
Specifics of this notoriously reclusive drone program remain top secret within the U.S. military and intelligence communities, though experts on the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and Pakistani politics say the U.S. has likely eased up on the joystick for what has become a popular local talking point.
"Every drone strike is a little bit of gasoline on a fire," says Karl Kaltenthaler, a professor at The University of Akron and expert on drone strikes in Pakistan.
"There was a lot of discussion during the election about Pakistani sovereignty, about standing up, particularly to the United States over the drone strikes in the FATA," he says of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in northwestern Pakistan along the Afghan border. This tribal region is home to much of the Pakistani Taliban, and is predominantly Pashtun.
One of the more vocal candidates in the recent election, former cricketer Imran Khan, is himself of Pashtun descent and used U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan as a favorite populist and anti-American talking point.
Khan said earlier in May he would "end the system of American slavery" in Pakistan.
"We were not trying to get directly involved in the election, which would be radioactive," said Kaltenhaler. "But drone strikes would just be fuel on the fire."
Drone strikes in this region are largely carried out by Air Force pilots using CIA information, though no public records exist of this activity. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism and theLong War Journal document drone strikes through public information.
Both organizations agree the last strike likely occurred on April 17.
"It's not for want of targets. There are political considerations," says Bill Roggio, an editor at LWJ who culls drone information.
"[The strikes] are publicized, for certain," he says. "Political candidates would definitely use them."
It would give candidates, such as Khan or Sharif, "an issue to beat over the head of the PPP," he says of the Pakistan People's Party, the progressive party which came under fire for what opponents claim was selling out to the U.S. in exchange for violating the country's sovereignty. The U.S. has also withheld drone strikes in the past for political considerations, Roggio says. There was a UAV blackout following the Raymond Davis incident, in which a former U.S. soldier and military contractor reportedly gunned down two men in Lahore in 2011.
The Bureau of Investigative Journalism estimates drone strikes have accounted for as many as 900 civilian deaths and 200 deaths among children since 2004.
"Drones are kind of the best game in town for fighting al Qaeda, but they're absolutely fraught with real human questions," says Kaltenthaler. These include balancing collateral damage against high value targets the U.S. would have no other way of detaining, and the virtue of these kinds of targeted killings.
"It's unfortunately more common than we would like it to be that people who look like they're acting suspiciously are really not up to any nefarious activity at all," he says.
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/17/20-killed-in-northwest-pakistan-mosque-bombings/
20 Killed in Northwest Pakistan Mosque Bombings
Attacks Targeted Mosques in Restive Malakand Agency
by Jason Ditz, May 17, 2013
Bombings tore through a pair of mosques in the Baz Darrah district of Malakand today, killing at least 20 people and badly wounding 70 others. Both mosques were badly damaged, and one saw its roof collapse after the attack.
The death toll is expected to continue to rise, as rescue workers sift through the debris looking for the peoplebelieved to still be trapped within. The attacks overwhelmed hospitals in the area.
Still the death toll could have been far worse. People from the second mosque attacked say that it was mostly empty because worshipers flocked to the site of the first attack to help in the rescue, only to learn that their mosque was hit later.
Pakistani security forces imposed a curfew on the surrounding area. So far no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, but there are multiple militant factions, including the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan-Swat Valley (TTP-S) that remain resentful after the 2009 offensive against Malakand.
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/05/17/pentagon-in-afghan-budget-crisis-seeks-to-shift-10-billion-in-funds/
Pentagon in Afghan Budget Crisis, Seeks to Shift $10 Billion in Funds
Needs Congressional Approval for Such a Large Move
by Jason Ditz, May 17, 2013
The Pentagon has announced today that it is seeking Congressional approval for a “shift” of $9.6 billion in approved spending, with most of the changes going to cope with the increased costs of the Afghan War.
The Pentagon has reportedly already been shifting money into the various “contingency funds” related to the war, but it convinced it will rapidly exceed the $7.5 billion cap on such transfers as the crisis worsens. Beyond this level they would need Congress to sign off.
Recent reports have indicated that the Pentagon’s “placeholder” estimates for Afghan War costs in upcoming years are much higher than expected, and Pentagon Comptroller Robert Hale has warned the costs may continue to rise “substantially.”
Though the per year appropriations for Afghanistan are still down from the levels spent at the peak of the surge, but previous estimates of savings from the drawdown have not panned out nearly to the level expected, with analysts saying that the military has yet to fully explain why the war is still so costly.
Envoy: Russia May Deploy Troops to Tajik-Afghan Border
Seeks to Replicate Soviet-Era Border Security
by Jason Ditz, May 17, 2013
Following up on last week’s comments by President Vladimir Putin, Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan Andrey Avetisyan has detailed his nation’s military plans to enhance security across Central Asia in the coming years.
The policy stems from Russian concerns that, much as the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan failed, NATO’s own is rapidly speeding to a similar conclusion, potentially leaving the nation even more destabilized and the whole region at risk.
Accord to Avetisyan, the plan under consideration right now is to deploy Russian border troops in an undefined number to the Tajikistan border with Afghanistan. He said the presence the Soviets had along the border in the past had made the situation “much better,” and that Russia believes a similar deployment is needed now, with NATO’s own war struggling.
Such a program could be pushed through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), which Russia and Tajikistan are both members of. The deployment may spark criticism of a return to Soviet-era policy in Central Asia, but is unlikely to be opposed by Tajikistan, given the powderkeg they have along their southern border.
Interestingly, Avetisyan indication that Russia does not welcome the idea of a protracted NATO deployment inside Afghanistan, insisting that the last 12 years have accomplished nothing, and that they would only support extending the war if NATO gave them some idea of what they hoped to actually accomplish.
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