Saturday, February 9, 2013

Harvey Organ Febuary 9 , 2013 Report and Ed Steer's Saturday offerings for Febuary 9 , 2013 - gold and silver news and views and additional items of note

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/russian-policy-study-group-notes-gatas-exposure-gold-price-suppression


Russian Policy Study Group Notes GATA's Exposure of Gold Price Suppression

Feb
9
"The quick take-downs of both gold and silver after the London p.m. gold fix were duly noted."

¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER

The gold price did nothing yesterday...and the tiny rally that developed in New York trading after the London p.m. gold fix in, wasn't allowed to amount to much...and got sold off during the following few hours, before trading sideways into the close.
Gold finished the Friday session at $1,667.20 spot...down $3.80 on the day.  Volume was very light...around 94,000 contracts.
The silver price was more 'volatile'...but traded in exactly the same pattern as gold...with the price spike after the London p.m. gold fix being treated even more harshly than the sell-off that accompanied gold's rally at the same time.  From there, silver traded sideways into the close.
Silver finished the Friday session at $31.43 spot...down 3 cents from Thursday.  Net volume was very light at around 27,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened at 80.24 in Far East trading on their Friday...and held more or less steady until 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong...and then slide to its low of the day [79.95] at noon in London.  Then the index rallied back to unchanged by 1:00 p.m. in New York before trading sideways into the close.  The index closed almost where it started that day...80.23.  Nothing to see here, folks...please move along.

*  *  * 

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 60 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday.  Jefferies was the short/issuer on all 60 contracts...and the 'usual suspects' were biggest long/stoppers.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
After a deposit in GLD on Thursday, there was a withdrawal of 96,797 troy ounces on Friday.  But the big surprise was SLV.  When I typed this paragraph shortly before midnight Eastern time last night, the SLV website showed no change.  Now that I'm editing this column at 5:40 a.m. Eastern time, I decided to check to see if the site had been updated...and it had.  It showed that 1,547,142 troy ounces of silver had been deposited by an authorized participant.  Why SLV is sometimes being updated around midnight Eastern time is a big mystery to me.
I was hoping that the short positions in these two ETFs would have been updated on theshortsqueeze.com Internet site yesterday evening but, alas, that was not to be.
There was a smallish sales report from the U.S. Mint.  They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a very decent 206,000 silver eagles.  Month-to-date the mint has sold 34,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 979,500 silver eagles.  Based on these numbers, the silver/gold sales ratio for February to date is just under 28 to 1.
It was another action-packed day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday.  They reported receiving 1,202,121 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 227,050 troy ounces out the door.  The link to that activity is here.
The Commitment of Traders Report...for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday...showed that the Commercial net short positions in both metals increased during the reporting week.
In silver, the Commercial net short position increased by 1,679 contracts...and now sits at 259.7 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' traders in silver are short 265.1 million ounces...a bit over 100% of the above-mentioned Commercial net short position.  The next '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 55.3 million ounces.
As far as the concentration of these short positions is concerned, the 'Big 4' are short 52.4% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis.  The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 10.9 percentage points.  So the 'Big 8' are short 63.3% of the entire Comex futures market on a net basis...and those are minimum percentages.
Ted Butler pointed out that, according to his calculations, JPMorgan Chase is short 35,000 Comex silver contracts all by itself...and that calculates out to about 34.5% of the entire Comex silver market.  One entity short that much of one commodity...what the #%&!$ is the CFTC waiting for?
Then, to make matters worse...and this is my personal opinion...I think that the second big short in the silver market is the Bank of Nova Scotia, through their bullion division Scotia Mocatta...and they are short about 11 percent of the entire Comex silver market.  Despite polite enquiries, I can't get them to admit to it...but they didn't say no...and I given them ample opportunity to do so.
I'm also of the opinion that the number three silver short holder on the Comex is HSBC USA...but their position would be around 5% of the total Comex futures market in silver.
Based on these educated assumptions, of the 41 traders on the short side of the Commercial category, three of them are short about 50% of the entire Comex silver market...and the short positions of the other thirty-eight traders in that category, are immaterial.
In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by 7,510 contracts...and now sits at 174,600 contracts, or 17.46 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' are short 10.51 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.85 million ounces.  So the 'Big 8' in total are short 16.36 million ounces of gold...93.7% of the Commercial net short position.
As far as concentration goes, the 'Big 4' are short 29.6% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and the '5 through 8' are short an additional 16.4% of the Comex futures market.  In total, the 'Big 8' are short 46.0% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a net basis.
Here's Nick Laird's "Days to Cover Short Positions" in all world commodities.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CFTC also published the February Bank Participation Report...and the data contained in that is extracted from the above-mentioned Commitment of Traders Report.
In silver, it showed that less than four [probably three] U.S. banks are net short 40,192 Comex silver contracts...about 7,900 contracts higher than January's BPR.  And don't forget that Ted mentioned that JPMorgan Chase is short 35,000 Comex contracts...and it's my guess that HSBC USA is short about 5,000 Comex contracts...and the tiny balance of about 200 contracts would belong to Citi, I believe.
The 14 non-U.S. banks are net short 15,370 Comex contracts, an increase of about 500 contracts from the January report.  My estimation is that Scotia Bank holds about 11,000 of those 15,370 short contracts...so that leaves the remaining 13 non-U.S. banks holding about 4,370 Comex contracts short between them.  These are immaterial positions when you divide them up more or less equally.
[Note: If the Bank of Nova Scotia wishes to deny that they are the new "Non-U.S. Bank" mentioned on the Bank Participation Report home page...I'd be more than happy to print a retraction...and an apology.]
In gold, 4 U.S. banks are net short 69,300 Comex contracts.  This is a 13,000 contractdecline [1.3 million ounces] since the January BPR...and three of those four U.S. banks just mentioned would be the 'Big 3' U.S. banks short the Comex silver market as well.
There are 20 non-U.S. banks short 48,734 Comex contracts in gold...and that's an increaseof about 2,900 contracts since the January BPR...or 290,000 ounces of gold.
Just for fun, here's the Reader's Digest version of the Bank Participation Report for both platinum and palladium.  In platinum, 17 banks are long 2,292 Comex contracts...and short 26,286 Comex contracts.  In palladium, 17 banks are long 991 contracts and short 13,667 contracts.
The lion's share of the short positions in both platinum and palladium are held by less than four U.S. Banks.
And just as a matter of interest, there are 17 banks in total holding short positions in the Comex silver market as well.  One has to wonder whether they are the same 17 banks in all three metals.
Here are the Bank Participation Reports for all four precious metals in chart form.  Note the monstrous short positions held by the 3 [or 4] U.S. Banks in all four metals....and note the appearance of Scotiabank in October on silver's chart.  Charts #4 and #5 from each one are the most important...and the 'click to enlarge' feature is a must here.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)

and selected news items....

Boeing New Aircraft Orders Implode From 183 to Just 2 in January

After the now several week old exploding battery fiasco, Boeing is nowhere closer to resolving the recurring problem for its appropriately renamed Nightmareliner. But the worst for the company may be yet ahead: as the following chart from Stone McCarthy shows, January new aircraft orders collapsed from 183 in December to a meaningless 2 in January: a seasonally strong month, with some 150 orders a year ago, and more weakness to come as Boeing just warned its first Norwegian delivery due in April may be delayed.
This story was posted on the zerohedge.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank "David in California" for sending it.  There are a couple of charts that are worth looking at...and the link is here.


Doug Noland: New Bull or Bigger Ro, Ro?

The inevitable upshot to this unwieldy “risk on, risk off” and New Age Policy Asymmetry is unanchored global liquidity and general currency market instability.  The Draghi and Bernanke Plans incited re-risking, re-leveraging and an absolute global market liquidity bonanza.  Many now talk openly of “currency wars” – recalling the destabilizing “beggar thy neighbor” Credit/currency devaluations from the Depression era.  Watching their moribund economies, European leaders are getting antsy.  And the elevated euro (weak dollar and yen) was the target of strong words this past week from French President Hollande:  “We can’t let the euro fluctuate according to the mood of the market.  We have to act at the international level to assert our interests… We have to determine for the medium term an exchange-rate level that appears most realistic, that is most in line with the state of our real economies.”
Doug Noland is a must read every Friday...and his commentary at theprudentbear.com Internet site yesterday evening is no exception.  I thank reader U.D. for sliding it into my in-box last night...and the link is here.


Podcast: James Rickards on Currency Wars

Investors and economists concerned about the current central bank battle to weaken their currencies might want to get comfortable, because this so-called “currency war” isn’t ending any time soon, warns veteran financier and author of the 2011 book “Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis” James Rickards.
In an interview on the DJ FX Trader podcast, Rickards says the continuing currency battle will likely last until 2014 or 2015, and in the meantime rising inflation across the globe remains a key risk.
“We’re not in currency wars all the time, but when we are they tend to last for a very long time,” he says.
This podcast was posted on The Wall Street Journal's Internet site on Thursday morning.  The podcast runs just over 14 minutes...and Mr. Rickards part lasts for about 7:50 minutes.  I thank Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention...and the link is here.

Cameron triumphs as European leaders agree on first-ever budget cut

The deal is expected to set members’ total payments to the EU for 2014-20 at Euro 908.4 billion or £770 billion. For the last seven-year spending round, payments were set at £800 billion, and the new agreement marks the first time the EU’s multi-year budget has fallen.
The agreement was sealed shortly after 4pm in Brussels, after more than 24-hours of non-stop talks, including an all-night negotiation during which Mr Cameron drank numerous espressos and chewed sugary gum sweets.
The deal was announced on Twitter by Herman van Rumpoy, the EU president.
He wrote: “Deal done! #euco has agreed on #MFF for the rest of the decade. Worth waiting for.”
Big hairy deal.  The E.U. should be abandoned anyway...and it will be interesting to see if the organization outlasts its spending plans.  This story was posted onThe Telegraph's website early yesterday afternoon GMT...and is courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

Pepe Escobar: The sound of Munich

Let's start with US Vice President Joe Biden: "The United States is a Pacific power. And the world's greatest military alliance [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization] helps make us an Atlantic power as well. As our new defense strategy makes clear, we will remain both a Pacific power and an Atlantic power."

Another Goldman Sachs bonus to hear what our friends in the Zhongnanhai in Beijing make of all this.

Biden also stressed that in terms of the Obama 2.0 administration's leading from behind strategy, the "comprehensive approach" implies the use of "a full range of tools at our disposal - including our militaries".

He even doubled down, praising the Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya quagmires/disasters as models and implying the global war on terror (GWOT) does, indeed, go on forever, as in the US "cognizant of an evolving threat posed by [al-Qaeda] affiliates like AQAP in Yemen, al-Shabaab in Somalia, AQI in Iraq and Syria and AQIM in North Africa".
This short piece by Pepe stamps 'Paid' on the idea that the truth...if this is what is...is stranger than fiction.  You couldn't make this stuff up.  This article showed up on the Asia Times website on Wednesday...and I've been saving it for today.  It's courtesy of Roy Stephens, of course...and the link is here.

Khamenei plays hardball with Obama

It was an extraordinary week in the politics of the Middle East and it ended appropriately by being rounded off with a reality check lest imaginations ran riot.

Three major happenings within one week would have to be taken as the inevitable confluence of a flow of developments and processes: the offer by the Syrian opposition of a bilateral dialogue with the Bashar al-Assad regime; the historic visit of an Iranian president to Egypt; and the public, unconditional offer by the United States of direct talks with Iran and the latter's ready acceptance of it.

Yet, they are interconnected. First, the Syrian kaleidoscope is dramatically shifting despite the continuing bloodbath. Unless the European countries drop their arms embargo on Syria (which expires on March 1 anyway) and decide to arm the rebels, the stalemate will continue.

The mood in Western capitals has shifted in the direction of caution and circumspection, given the specter that al-Qaeda affiliates are taking advantage. If anything, the hurricane of militant Islamism blowing through Mali only reinforces that concern and reluctance.
This Asia Times story, posted on their website early this morning Hong Kong time is a must read for all students of the "New Great Game".  Once again I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us...and the link is here.


King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

As most readers discovered yesterday, the KWN website got hacked...and it was vicious.  I got more e-mails from readers on this issue than anything else since I started writing this column.  I did manage to post the links to all his blogs that were sent to me on Thursday, but I did have some issues with the website even then...but by the time my column was posted at 6:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday morning, his website was out of service
I get the KWN blogs and interviews directly from Eric...and I haven't heard a thing from him since late Thursday evening.  I'm sure that I'll hear something in due course...and when I do, I'll let you know.


Gold vending machine in Boca Raton may be first of many

Just outside of Burberry, Tory Burch, Stuart Weitzman and Banana Republic stores in the corridor next to the Brahman Motors Bentley display is a six-foot-tall golden box that dispenses 1 gram to 10 grams of gold.
Meris Kott, managing director of PMX Gold Bullion, said the machine was placed at the mall Jan. 4 and the company has a year lease. The company used a German machine about two years ago for a trial run at Town Center. This time PMX Gold Bullion Sales, based in Boca Raton and a subsidiary of publicly listed PMX Communities Inc. (OTC BB: PMXO, 7 cents), had its own machine designed.
Another machine will be placed in a Florida mall in the next few weeks, Kott said. Her goal is to have 10 to 12 machines placed in various malls by the end of June.
This story appeared on the palmbeachpost.com Internet site late on Wednesday afternoon...and it's courtesy of Elliot Simon.  The link is here.


Russian policy study group notes GATA's exposure of gold price suppression

GATA's work has come to the attention of a public policy study organization in Russia, the Strategic Culture Foundation, whose researcher, Valentin Katasonov, notes particularly GATA's publication of secret records from the International Monetary Fund confirming gold price suppression by Western central banks.
Katasonov's analysis, published yesterday, is headlined "IMF Information Leaks: Central Banks' Gold Manipulations" and it's posted in English at the Strategic Culture Foundation's Internet site.
Russian officials have been watching GATA's work for a long time, at least since 2004, when the deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Oleg Mozhaiskov, with whom GATA had not previously had any contact, spoke approvingly of GATA in his address to a meeting in Moscow of the London Bullion Market Association.
This GATA release contains more commentary from Chris...and a link to the above policy report...plus a few others.  It's a must read for sure...and it's posted at the gata.org Internet site...and the link is here.


*  *   * 

¤ THE WRAP

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. – John Kenneth Galbraith
Today's classical 'blast from the past' was sent to me by reader Rob Bentley.  It'sTomaso Albinoni's Adagio in G minor...and everyone has heard it in one form or another sometime during their lifetime...and the history behind this composition is truly amazing.  This youtube.com video features the Franz Liszt Chamber Orchestra...and it was recorded at the 1,000 year old Benedictine Pannonhalma Archabbey in Hungary.  At only 8:39 minutes, it doesn't last nearly long enough to suit me.  The link is here.
Today's pop 'blasts from the past' are both by The Young Rascals...and both are from 1967...forty-six years ago.  Where the hell did all that time go?  The link to the first one ishere...and the second one is here...and you'll know them right away.
I'm not going to spend much time waxing philosophical over the entrails of yesterday's trading action in gold and silver...although the quick take-downs of both gold and silver after the London p.m. gold fix were duly noted.
I haven't the foggiest notion of where we go from here.  As I've said a few times already this month, it appears that gold and silver are being held in place...but for what reason I don't know.  Lots of pundits feel that a break-out to the upside is imminent...and they could very well be right, as I'm certainly cheering for one.  But who will be going short against all the new longs that come in the market to drive the price up?  That's always the question you should be asking when any rally gets underway.
Just look at the CFTC Bank Participation Report charts for platinum and palladium above and see how the U.S. banks have blown out their short positions in these metals as the prices have risen over the last few months...chart #4 and #5 in each metal.  They are not-for-profit sellers...and if they weren't there, both platinum and palladium would be at prices that would make your eyes glaze over.  This is precisely what is going on in the silver market...and to a lesser extent in the gold market.  That's why the monthly BPR is so important, as it strips out the banks to show you their undeniable footprints in the precious metals market.  This is further confirmed by the "Days to Cover Short Positions" chart that I post in this column every Saturday...Sunday west of the International Date Line.  JPMorgan et al are the 800 pound gorillas in the living room of the precious metal markets.
It's surprising the number of people that see these charts, but brush them aside as if they mean nothing, no matter what the facts show.  Au contraire...they are everything!  There's even a T-shirt for that syndrome...and I know that a vaccine is in the works as well.
In closing...and on a more serious note...here's one of my favourite charts from Nick that I like to post on the weekend.  It's the "Total PMs Pool"...and it continues to climb from lower left to upper right despite what the prices are doing.  I sure do hope, dear reader, that you're getting your share.
(Click on image to enlarge)
That's more than enough for today.  I'm off to bed...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.
















http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/02/chinese-production-of-gold-rises-to-403.html


SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2013


Chinese production of gold rises to 403 tonnes/3rd LTRO repayment only 5 billion euros/Venezuela devalues its currency by 46%/USA trade deficit narrows to 38 billion dollars.

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed down $4.40 to $1666.00 while silver held up pretty good rising by 4 cents to $31.43. The closing access market for our two precious metals were as follows:

gold: $1667.20
silver: $31.43

Early Friday morning, the boys showed up at their regular time bashing gold down. It then rose up to the comex opening where it was hit again.  However silver held firm rising at one point to 20 cents above par.  However it too fell when gold remained below par for the rest of the comex session. Both gold and silver are manipulated constantly by our bankers as the supply/demand relationship of these two precious metals are thrown out  the window. Thus technical analysis on the trading patterns of gold and silver are really worthless.

In physical news, the Chinese announced that their production in 2013 is 403 tonnes of gold. They keep every oz of production.  China announced this week that their importation of gold amounted to 835 tonnes.
Together, these two sums of gold have the following purpose:1) is used by Chinese citizens for jewellery and for hoarding (as inflation is certainly present here)
2) for official reserves.

The last official reserves for China was issued in 2009 at 1054 tonnes.  It is expected that another revising of its official reserves will be either late this year or next.

The annual production of gold for all nations was reported on last week.  It totaled 2800 tonnes of which Russia's production was 200 tonnes and now China is 403 tonnes.  Both Russia and China  keep all of their gold production and thus only 2197 tonnes is available to the world for jewellry and hoarding purposes.

India has imported over 800 tonnes of gold on an annual basis but produces a very tiny 2.8 tonnes of gold.
The Indian citizens appetite for gold continues to rise unabated despite opposition from the government as they are witnessing a huge current account deficit of which the gold importation had a major effect.  The government is trying to raise duties and taxes trying to quell gold's demand.

Together, China and India import 1635 tonnes of gold, leaving very little gold for the rest of the world for jewellery and hoarding. (562 tonnes).

The COT report released in gold showed a huge drop in commercial longs.  Are they losing their "hedging" vehicle?

Friday night saw another 3.01 tonnes of gold leave the GLD vaults.In paper news, the 3rd LTRO repayment only amounted to 5 million euros.  We will have to wait until the end of February to see what happens when the 2nd LTRO schedule is allowed to be repaid for the first time.

Venezuela devalued its currency by a huge 46% due to a shortage of USA dollars.  Inflation will run rampant in that country.

In USA news, the trade deficit narrowed to 38 billion dollars. And finally Dan Norcini points out that the USA bought this year more debt than what the treasury issued.  Very strange!!





We will discuss these and many other stories but first let us head over to the comex and assess trading today............
The total comex gold open interest fell by 2628 contracts falling from 432,394 down to 420,766.  The active February gold contract delivery month saw it's OI fall by 73 contracts from 2135 down to 2062.  We had 0 delivery notices filed on Thursday so we lost 73 contracts or 7300 oz of gold standing for the February contract month.  The non active March gold  month gained 160 contracts up to 1324. The next active gold contract month (April) saw it's OI fall by 3,433 contracts from 253,813 down to 250,380.  The estimated volume on Friday was poor at 93,731.  The confirmed volume on Thursday was much better at 181,184.

The total silver comex OI remains at high lofty levels, coming to rest this weekend at 150,111 although it fell 1451 contracts from Thursday. The non active front February contract month saw it's OI rise by 17 up to 34 contracts.  We had 4 delivery notices on Thursday, so in essence we gained  21 contracts or 105,000 oz of additional silver standing for February.  We are 3 weeks away from first day notice.  The active silver March contract month saw it's OI fall from 70,865 down to 66,757 for a loss of 4108 contracts. The estimated volume was fair on Friday as it came in at 40,445 contracts, compared to a huge volume on Thursday at 67,807. Comex gold/February contract month:

Feb 8.2013    




Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
96.45 (HSBC)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
3375.75 (HSBC)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 0    (nil  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2062  (206,200) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,322  (1,032,200 oz) 
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
96.45
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
75,941.547


February 8.2013:   The February silver contract month




Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory801,018.56 (Brinks)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory  629,415.01 (Brinks, scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  311,160.91
No of oz served (contracts)0  (nil oz)  
No of oz to be served (notices)34  (170,000  oz) 
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 76  (380,000  oz) 
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month984,015.06
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month1,542,444.01

*  *  *  


Friday night saw the release of the COT report where we get to see position levels of our major players.  The report is always based on a Tuesday to Tuesday week. 

Let us now head over to the gold COT:  ( levels ending Feb 5)


Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
192,806
55,341
24,811
145,291
319,898
362,908
400,050
Change from Prior Reporting Period
11,703
1,186
-1,224
-14,485
-6,975
-4,006
-7,013
Traders
184
74
66
60
44
276
159


Small Speculators




Long
Short
Open Interest



61,074
23,932
423,982



-2,730
277
-6,736



non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period

COT Gold Report - Positions as of
Tuesday, February 05, 2013


Our large speculators:

Those large speculators who are long in gold, loved the lay of the land and these guys poured it on by adding a massive 11,703 contracts to their long side.

Those large speculators who are short in gold, added 1186 contracts to their short side.

Our commercials:

Those commercials who are long in gold and are close to the physical scene, dumped a massive 14,485 contracts from their long side.  Very unusual. 

Those commercials who have been short in gold, covered a rather large 6975 contracts.Our small specs:


Those small specs that are long in gold, pitched 2730 contracts from their long side
Those small specs that are short in gold added a tiny 277 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion;

The commercials went net short by a rather large 7,510 contracts.  This has to be construed as bearish.  (However keep in mind that the commercials are engaging in collusive criminal activity.)


And now for our silver COT:


Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
42,449
6,588
35,724
46,293
98,239
-640
-1,697
2,094
889
2,568
Traders
80
26
50
35
41
Small Speculators
Open Interest
Total
Long
Short
151,512
Long
Short
27,046
10,961
124,466
140,551
637
15
2,980
2,343
2,965
non reportable positions
Positions as of:
138
101

Tuesday, February 05, 2013
  © SilverSeek.com  


Please note the difference between the gold COT report and the silver COT:

Our large speculators:
Those large speculators that are long in silver, pitched a tiny 640 contracts from their long side
Those large speculators that are short in silver, covered 1697 contracts from their short side.

Our commercials;

Those commercials that are long in silver and are close to the physical scene added (in total contrast to gold) 889 contracts to their long side.

Those commercials that are short in silver, added a huge 2568 contracts from their short side as nobody else could supply the paper.

Small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in silver added 637 contracts to their short side.
Those small specs that have been short in silver added a tiny 15 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion;

  The bankers were trying to convince some of the speculators to go short and this was to no avail.  The only guys supplying the short paper are the commercials and on Friday they went net short another 1679 contracts.  They did this with silver price on the low side.  However because of the added net short position of the bankers in silver we must say that a bearish tone is still present.


And now for the major physical stories we faced today:



First gold trading from Europe and Asia courtesy of Goldcore.

1. Gold in euros surges 1.8%.  This is closely watched by European traders.
2. Soros thinks that we may have an EU collapse just like we witnessed in the uSSR
3. Chinese production soars again and now has surpassed 400 tonnes at 403 tonnes per year.
The Chinese keep every single oz of production.  China has already reported an increase of imports of gold into China at 835 tonnes.  Thus production and importation of gold in China comes to 1238 tonnes of gold. The world produces on an annual basis 2197 tonnes of gold (ex China ex Russia which keeps all production).  

4.  Goldcore asks the question as to why the silver manipulation probe has not been resolved in the same manner as the libor scandal with the huge fines to our bankers.  They are asking are the banks making huge profits by manipulating silver (and of course gold)?(courtesy goldcore)




Gold In Euros Surges 1.8% After Draghi Warns; Soros Says EU May Collapse Like USSR


-- Posted Friday, 8 February 2013 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,669.75, EUR 1,245.15 and GBP 1,059.55 per ounce.   
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,675.75, EUR 1,235.99 and GBP 1,065.86 per ounce.


Cross Currency and Precious Metal Table – (Bloomberg)

While gold fell in dollar terms yesterday, it surged 1.8% in euro terms from €1,235/oz, soon after the ECB interest rate decision, to €1,258/oz soon after. Some of the gains were quickly given up as determined selling was again seen but gold in euros closed nearly 1% higher on the day.
Gold in EUR, 10 Day - (Bloomberg)

The price gains came as Draghi warned about slowing economic growth and complacency regarding declaring an end to the financial crisis. 
He also warned that the euro dollar exchange rates rise could derail the recovery in Europe and signaled that an interest rate cut may even be necessary. Continuing ultra loose monetary policies in the Eurozone will support gold and should lead to higher prices in 2013.
In dollar terms, gold fell $5.70 or 0.34% yesterday closing at $1,671.80/oz. Silver slid to a low of $31.28 and finished with a loss of 1.16%.
Gold in USD, 10 Day - (Bloomberg)

Gold is flat in most currencies today despite concerns over the health of the eurozone economy but gold is on course for a second week of gains which would be bullish from a technical perspective.

Trading action was again peculiar yesterday with determined sellers capping the price at certain levels. There is a distinct feel that influential players are getting long and into position for the long awaited upward price move.
China's gold production increased for a sixth year in a row and hit a record 403 tonnes in 2012, keeping its ranking as the world's largest bullion producer, reported the Shanghai Securities News.
Silver continues to see determined selling at the $32/oz level.

On Wednesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) $612 million for fixing the Libor interest rate. Given the significant delay in concluding the CFTC’s investigations of price manipulation in the silver market, many investors continue to ask the question as to whether certain banks are manipulating and capping the silver price thereby pocketing millions in profits at the expense of traders and investors.

Bart Chilton, commissioner at the CFTC, said as long ago as October 2010 that “members of the public “and” publicly available documents convinced him the silver markets are tainted by violations of federal commodities law.
"I do believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets," Mr Chilton said. "There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and what I consider deviously control the price."

The Financial Times recently acknowledged the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee’s (GATA) important contribution regarding establishing transparency in the gold market. GATA has also called for transparency in the silver market and it is not before time that the CFTC fulfills their duty and announces the findings of their investigations into whether Wall Street banks have been manipulating the silver market.
Manipulation or not, silver buyers will again be rewarded if they remain patient and fade out the considerable noise that emanates from the silver market.
Gold in GBP, 10 Day - (Bloomberg)The EU may suffer the fate of the USSR and “collapse” according to billionaire investor George Soros.

Soros said that incorrect economic and monetary policies and the monetary union itself may lead to currency wars and the collapse of the European Union.

In saving the euro, the continent’s financial powers have damaged the economy of the euro zone and created dangerous new political imbalances. As a result, “we have quite a turbulent time ahead for 2013.”
“I am rather concerned that the euro is in danger of destroying the European Union”. There is a real threat when the possible resolution of financial difficulties of eurozone might cause a political issue,” Soros told Dutch TV in an interview.
The attempts of the European leadership to keep the common European currency are leading to the escalation of political and social issues in the EU which may eventually destroy it.

Recent SEC filings show that Soros’ hedge fund had again increased allocations to gold.


NEWS 
Gold heads for 2nd weekly rise, PGMs off 17-month peak - Reuters
Gold Sideways in Asia as Outlook Unclear; Precious Metals Lower – The Wall Street Journal
Gold Volatility Squeeze Means Rise to $1,900: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg
250 tonnes of gold smuggled into India in 2012: Jewellery body – Business Standard

COMMENTARY
CME Cuts Gold, Silver Margins – Zero Hedge
Mark Mobius Bullish On Commodities - Gold, Platinum and Palladium – Business Insider
Protect your wealth as the Bank of England goes for broke – Money Morning
The US Monetary Base and Gold! - GoldSeek
GOLDCORE
Ireland:
14 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin
United Kingdom:
No. 1 Cornhill
EC3V 3ND UK


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http://www.gata.org/node/12218

Venezuela devalues currency by 32%

 Section: 
By Eyanir Chinea
Reuters
Friday, February 8, 2013
CARACAS -- Venezuela devalued its bolivar currency to 6.3 per dollar from 4.3 per dollar, the finance minister said today, in a widely expected move to shore up government finances after blowout government spending last year.
The measure will help ease a shortage of dollars that has crimped imports and left many supermarkets barren of staples such as flour or sugar. It is also seen pushing up consumer prices in the import-dependent OPEC nation that already has one of Latin America's highest inflation rates.
Venezuela has maintained exchange controls on the bolivar for a decade under which importers and travelers must seek dollars through a state currency board, or buy them on an illegal black market where greenbacks fetch nearly four times the official rate.
Central Bank President Nelson Merentes said on Friday the government was also eliminating a currency exchange system known as SITME, which functioned via bond swaps in parallel with the state currency control board.
The currency adjustment follows two months of silence from socialist President Hugo Chavez, who is in Havana and has not been seen in two months since a complex cancer surgery.
The inflationary impact over the coming months could dent Chavez's popularity at a time of ongoing uncertainty over whether his cancer will prevent him completing a third term in office.
The central bank said on Friday that consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in January, the country's second-highest rate since 2010, while product shortages reached their highest in close to five years.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/does-irs-have-its-sites-set-on-roth-iras/#more-20990

DOES IRS HAVE ITS SITES SET ON ROTH IRA’S?

gun sitesBy SD Contributor AGXIIK:
The government says that once the Roth is converted, there are no taxes on withdrawals after that.  Of course, the gummint is great at the big lie. Anytime in the future the Roth safe harbor could be cancelled.  All a president would have to do is pull the NDRP or NDAA trigger, and they own our butts. 
Most people would never even hear of the IRA grabs thus leaving themselves as a convenient target. Those that were smart enough to see this coming would do just what most of us are doing.  Slowly removing the IRA balances, paying the much smaller amounts of taxes and moving on.
There’s a good possibility that the GRA or pension grabs will move up in line of Federal control, thus leaving out the annoying waiting  for revenues and actuarial estimation of when the holder will die, with the estate coughing up half of the balances.

I don’t think the GRA is a feint. The Roth IRA conversion was the real feint.  Probably millions of Americans converted to the Roth, as it was suggested by many financial planners  as a good idea when tax rates were low.
At conversion the Roth coughs up a serious chunk of taxes.  Government says that once the Roth is converted, there are no taxes on withdrawals after that.  Of course, the gummint is great at the big lie.  Anytime in the future the Roth safe harbor could be cancelled.  All a president would have to do is pull the NDRP or NDAA trigger, and they own our butts.
Most people would never even hear of the IRA grabs thus leaving themselves as a convenient target. Those that were smart enough to see this coming would do just what most of us are doing.  Slowly removing the IRA balances, paying the much smaller amounts of taxes and moving on. The IRS wins but only on a minor income level.
The IRS calculated that the tax revenues from us old farts taking distributions into our golden years would represent a good solid revenue stream.  We would still be paying into the system just like when we made the big bucks in our more productive years. There is a reason you must start taking withdrawals at age 70.  The gummint is many things, but patience is not one of their virtues.
The gummint would have a nice solid predictable tax revenue stream from the oldsters that would help keep revenues stable.  The retirement plans really came into their own in the 1980, when tax rates were pretty low, thanks to Reagan. In the last 30 years rates have edged upwards in a fairly continual path, going much according to plan.  Outside the aberration of the Bush tax cuts that came on top of the war costs, the rates could be studied, computed on an reasonably accurate actuarial basis based on the aging of the population and the commencement of IRA extractions.  It was not so much the actual realized tax revenues; it was the realization that they were hard numbers that the Tax Nazis could count on.

Some of the things that the IRS did not take into account were the last two severe equity/Dow crashes, both of which stripped away a significant portion of the IRA overall values. 401k became 201k.   Nonetheless, the multi trillions in private retirement savings are both a short and long term target.  Short term due to the gummint greed and need for money now.  Long term in that the IRS will get a significant portion of the IRA balances over a 20 year distribution time line. There’s a good possibility that the GRA or pension grabs will move up in line  of Federal control, thus leaving out the annoying waiting  for revenues and actuarial estimation of when the holder will die, with the estate coughing up half of the balances.  The GRA may compete with the IRS as a revenue source, putting the IRS in second place even after all their careful plans and projections.
Socialist (IRS) are criminals with a slow time line.  Communists (GRA) are Socialists with a huge lack of patience and guns.  We’re sort of sandwiched between the two right now.

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