http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-silver-cot-report-commercials-cover-massive-20-million-ounces-of-silver-shorts/#more-19986
( Gold and silver factoring in debt ceiling / sequestration hijinks as the big boys position accordingly for what's coming ? )
Gold & Silver COT Report 1/11/13:
first silver.....
Commercial longs trimmed back 438 contracts on the week and covered a huge 4,509 shorts to end the week with 47.70% of all open interest, a decrease of 0.42% in their share since last week, and now stand as a group at 206,325,000 ounces net short, which is a significant decrease of 20,355,000 net short ounces from the previous week.
and gold.....
Large speculators gave up 1,034 longs from their total while adding a miniscule 59 short contracts decreasing their net long position to 140,470,000 ounces, a decrease in their net long position of almost 5.5 million ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators removed 1,493 longs from their total and picked up a sizeable 1,485 short contracts for a net long position of 65,855,000 ounces a decrease of almost 15 million ounces net long from the prior week.
Silver started the COT reporting week at $30.24 and closed at $30.39 but what happened in between is hardly shown in the COT numbers. Since Tuesday’s close price has wandered a few cents to $30.44 with some volatility in route.
From the previous Tuesday close, at $30.24, price went as high as $31.53 that Wednesday afternoon to a low of $29.24 early Friday morning. That’s a difference of $2.29 in less than 48 hours with the majority of the raid taking place on Thursday afternoon.
Considering the commercials reduced their net short position by 20 million ounces and yet price was virtually unchanged, we have to believe the time is ripe for a dramatic price increase to their short term advantage and it appears they have merely been repositioning contracts for this purpose.
In 3 short weeks, those commercials have gone from almost 277 million ounces net short to 206 million ounces net short.
As we look at the gold side we see the commercials adding 8,893 contracts to their long total while covering 1,294 shorts. This gives much weight to the idea of preparing for a short term price increase. Speculators were forced out of massive long positions and even bought some new short positions.
But what we see with the gold swap dealers is truly telling. They added 13,353 longs and yet the gold producer merchant only added 815 longs. It is a safe bet most of those longs were bought after gold bottomed at $1626 but how many of those longs sold before gold reached $1678 on Thursday?
When commercials hold about 48% of all longs and shorts in silver and about 55% in gold is it any wonder they can move price 5-10% in a week’s time to take advantage of huge, short term profits?
and......
And compare the latest COT for Silver with that from 12/07.... a decrease in silver shorts from 292,570 ounces to 206 , 325 is just about a one third change ? They seem to be get set for a big move up !
GOLD & SILVER COT REPORT 12/7: COMMERCIALS INCREASE NET SILVER SHORTS ANOTHER 8.6 M OZ- NEARLY 300 M OZ NET SHORT!
Submitted by http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/indian-gold-imports-surge-amid-fears-further-duty-hikes
Indian Gold Imports Surge Amid Fears of Further Duty Hikes
Jan
12
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER
The gold price developed a slight negative bias right at the beginning of Far East trading on Friday...and that process accelerated a bit once London began to trade.
Then at the Comex open, the gold price jumped up...and almost immediately ran into a willing not-for-profit seller...and by 9:45 a.m. JPMorgan et al had bashed the price into submission. From there it recovered a hair, but hit its absolute low of the day at precisely 12:00 noon in New York...and then rallied a bit into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading.
The high tick at 8:31 a.m. Eastern was...$1,678.20 spot...and the low tick at noon was reported by Kitco as $1,652.50 spot.
The dollar index opened on Friday morning at 79.79...and traded ruler flat all through Far East and early London trading. Then at 1:00 p.m. GMT, the index did a 36-point face plant in just thirty minutes. The index spent the New York trading session recovering a bit of those loses, but the dollar index still closed down 24 basis points when all was said and done.
Of course it's laughable to even entertain the idea that the precious metals prices were in any way linked to what went on in the currency markets yesterday.
Then at the Comex open, the gold price jumped up...and almost immediately ran into a willing not-for-profit seller...and by 9:45 a.m. JPMorgan et al had bashed the price into submission. From there it recovered a hair, but hit its absolute low of the day at precisely 12:00 noon in New York...and then rallied a bit into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading.
The high tick at 8:31 a.m. Eastern was...$1,678.20 spot...and the low tick at noon was reported by Kitco as $1,652.50 spot.
Gold finished the Friday trading session at $1,662.70 spot...down $12.10 on the day. Net volume was around 145,000 contracts.
Silver's price pattern on Friday was virtually a carbon copy of gold's. The only big difference was that silver's low price tick [$30.07 spot] came at 10:00 a.m. Eastern...right on the button. From there it traded sideways until around 12:45 p.m. in New York...and then rallied into the 1:30 p.m. Comex close. From that point, and until the close of Friday trading, the silver price traded flat.
Silver's high price tick came shortly before 9:00 a.m. Eastern time...and Kitco recorded that as $30.93 spot.
"Da Boyz" took away almost all of Thursday's gains with yesterday's shenanigans...and silver closed on Friday at $30.44 spot...down 42 cents. Volume was pretty hefty...around 52,000 contracts.
Silver's high price tick came shortly before 9:00 a.m. Eastern time...and Kitco recorded that as $30.93 spot.
"Da Boyz" took away almost all of Thursday's gains with yesterday's shenanigans...and silver closed on Friday at $30.44 spot...down 42 cents. Volume was pretty hefty...around 52,000 contracts.
Of course it's laughable to even entertain the idea that the precious metals prices were in any way linked to what went on in the currency markets yesterday.
*****
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold...along with a surprising 124 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. The big short/issuer was Merrill...and the spoils were divided up between JPMorgan [54] in its proprietary [in house] trading account...Bank of Nova Scotia [39]...and Jefferies with 31 contracts stopped.
What started out as a very sleepy delivery month in silver, has turned into anything but! Already this month, there have been 641 contracts posted for delivery, which is a very large number for what has always been a traditional non-delivery month for either gold or silver...and the month is less than half over. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV.
Bullion coins continue to fly out the door at the U.S. Mint. Yesterday they reported selling another 12,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 150,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date...only eight business days...the mint has sold 97,500 ounces of gold eagles...36,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 4,782,000 silver eagles. Based on these sales, the silver/gold ratio stands at just under 36 to 1. I sure hope that you're getting your share, dear reader...and if not, you should make amends as quickly as you can.
It was a monster day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 975,656 troy ounces of silver...and shipped an eye-watering 2,786,866 troy ounces out the door. Amazing! I can hardly wait to read what Ted Butler has to say about this in his weekend review coming out later today. The link to yesterday's activity ishere.
There has been evidence presented on the Internet during the past week of shortages appearing in some types of precious metal products, both in North America and in Europe. Well, I got it right from the horse's mouth...as one of the largest private mints in the U.S. told us late yesterday afternoon that there's a 10-day wait for delivery on 10-ounce silver bars...and a 30-day wait for 1-ounce silver rounds. It has begun again.
What started out as a very sleepy delivery month in silver, has turned into anything but! Already this month, there have been 641 contracts posted for delivery, which is a very large number for what has always been a traditional non-delivery month for either gold or silver...and the month is less than half over. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV.
Bullion coins continue to fly out the door at the U.S. Mint. Yesterday they reported selling another 12,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 150,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date...only eight business days...the mint has sold 97,500 ounces of gold eagles...36,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 4,782,000 silver eagles. Based on these sales, the silver/gold ratio stands at just under 36 to 1. I sure hope that you're getting your share, dear reader...and if not, you should make amends as quickly as you can.
It was a monster day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 975,656 troy ounces of silver...and shipped an eye-watering 2,786,866 troy ounces out the door. Amazing! I can hardly wait to read what Ted Butler has to say about this in his weekend review coming out later today. The link to yesterday's activity ishere.
There has been evidence presented on the Internet during the past week of shortages appearing in some types of precious metal products, both in North America and in Europe. Well, I got it right from the horse's mouth...as one of the largest private mints in the U.S. told us late yesterday afternoon that there's a 10-day wait for delivery on 10-ounce silver bars...and a 30-day wait for 1-ounce silver rounds. It has begun again.
As I said a few paragraphs back...I sure as heck hope you're getting your share.
Well, yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report showed the expected declines in the Commercial net short positions in both gold and silver. Ted was hoping/expecting bigger numbers than were posted...but they are what they are. I had very little time to talk to Ted on the phone about this yesterday, as it was very busy at the store.
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by 4,071 contracts, or 20.4 million ounces of paper silver. The Commercial net short position as of the close of Comex trading on Tuesday stood at 206.3 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' are short 230.4 million ounces of silver...which is about 112% of the Commercial net short position show in the previous paragraph. Ted says that JPMorgan's short position is about 140 million ounces out of that 230.4 million ounces...28,000 Comex contracts...and it's my guess that the Bank of Nova Scotia is short at least 50 million ounces as well...so the 'BIG 2' are short around 190 million ounces of silver between them.
On a net basis, the 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 48.6% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and the 'BIG 2' on their own are short about 40% of the entire Comex futures market in silver all by themselves. How's that for concentration?
On a net basis, the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 11.6 percentage points of the entire Comex silver market. So the 'Big 8' in total are short more than 60% of the Comex silver market. But like I said...it's the BIG 2...or probably just the BIG 1...that really matters.
If we could see...and then subtract...all of the spread trades, not just some of them, it's my guess that these concentration ratios would be substantially more grotesque than they already are.
In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by 10,187 contracts, or 1.0 million ounces. Ted was expecting a much bigger number...and would have got it, except for the fact that the '5 through 8' traders actually sold about 7,000 contracts short...instead of covering short positions...and/or going long themselves. Having said all that, the Commercial net short position has now declined to 17.85 million ounces.
Well, yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report showed the expected declines in the Commercial net short positions in both gold and silver. Ted was hoping/expecting bigger numbers than were posted...but they are what they are. I had very little time to talk to Ted on the phone about this yesterday, as it was very busy at the store.
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by 4,071 contracts, or 20.4 million ounces of paper silver. The Commercial net short position as of the close of Comex trading on Tuesday stood at 206.3 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' are short 230.4 million ounces of silver...which is about 112% of the Commercial net short position show in the previous paragraph. Ted says that JPMorgan's short position is about 140 million ounces out of that 230.4 million ounces...28,000 Comex contracts...and it's my guess that the Bank of Nova Scotia is short at least 50 million ounces as well...so the 'BIG 2' are short around 190 million ounces of silver between them.
On a net basis, the 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 48.6% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and the 'BIG 2' on their own are short about 40% of the entire Comex futures market in silver all by themselves. How's that for concentration?
On a net basis, the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 11.6 percentage points of the entire Comex silver market. So the 'Big 8' in total are short more than 60% of the Comex silver market. But like I said...it's the BIG 2...or probably just the BIG 1...that really matters.
If we could see...and then subtract...all of the spread trades, not just some of them, it's my guess that these concentration ratios would be substantially more grotesque than they already are.
In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by 10,187 contracts, or 1.0 million ounces. Ted was expecting a much bigger number...and would have got it, except for the fact that the '5 through 8' traders actually sold about 7,000 contracts short...instead of covering short positions...and/or going long themselves. Having said all that, the Commercial net short position has now declined to 17.85 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 11.65 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 5.74 million ounces of the stuff. So between the eight biggest traders, they are short 17.39 million ounces of gold...almost 100% of the Commercial net short position.
On a 'net' basis...once all the market-neutral spread traders are subtracted out...the 'Big 4' are short 32.3% of the entire Comex gold market...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 15.9 percentage points. So the 'Big 8' are short a bit over 48% of the entire Comex futures market in gold.
Of course, like in silver, if all the unreported spread trades could be subtracted out, it would push these concentration numbers well over 50% for the 'Big 8' combined.
Here's Nick Laird's wonderful "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart. It shows the short positions of the Big 4 and Big 8 for all the physically traded commodities on the Comex...as shown in the latest COT Report. I just talk about silver and gold...but Nick shows them all...and the obscene and grotesque short positions in all four precious metals are obvious to anyone.
[Note: This chart is dated December 31st. For whatever reason, Nick didn't update this chart...but I've sent an e-mail asking for the update...and when he gets around to sending it, it will be replaced a bit later today. - Ed]
On a 'net' basis...once all the market-neutral spread traders are subtracted out...the 'Big 4' are short 32.3% of the entire Comex gold market...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 15.9 percentage points. So the 'Big 8' are short a bit over 48% of the entire Comex futures market in gold.
Of course, like in silver, if all the unreported spread trades could be subtracted out, it would push these concentration numbers well over 50% for the 'Big 8' combined.
Here's Nick Laird's wonderful "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart. It shows the short positions of the Big 4 and Big 8 for all the physically traded commodities on the Comex...as shown in the latest COT Report. I just talk about silver and gold...but Nick shows them all...and the obscene and grotesque short positions in all four precious metals are obvious to anyone.
[Note: This chart is dated December 31st. For whatever reason, Nick didn't update this chart...but I've sent an e-mail asking for the update...and when he gets around to sending it, it will be replaced a bit later today. - Ed]
The links to the long-term interactive COT charts for gold is here...and silver ishere. Depending on your browser and computer, they may take a while to load...especially the link for silver.
The Bank Participation Report data was as expected in silver...but a bit of a surprise in gold.
In silver, less than 4 U.S. banks [probably 3] decreased their net Comex short position from 39,573 contracts in the December BPR, down to 32,236 contracts in January's BPR.
Since Ted Butler says that JPMorgan Chase's short position is in the 28,000 Comex contract range, that means that there are only 4,236 Comex contracts left to split up between the two other U.S. banks. Using the past as prologue, I'm guessing that virtually all of that...like 95%...is held by HSBC USA...and a tiny non-material amount is held by Citigroup maybe.
Continuing in silver...15 non-U.S. banks held a net short position in Comex silver in December of 18,199 contracts...and in the January BPR just released, that short position has been reduced down to 14,913 Comex contracts...and only 14 banks. It's my firm belief that more than 10,000 contracts of this amount is held by the Bank of Nova Scotia...like maybe 12,000 contracts...leaving 2,913 contracts to split up between the remaining 13 non-U.S. banks, which is about 225 contracts per non-U.S. bank. As you can tell, these positions are immaterial.
Remember what I said about the 'BIG 2' in silver when I was talking about them in the COT Report further up. What the BPR does, is strip these two bullion banks naked for all to see. That's how concentrated their positions are...and there is just no way for them to hide on this one day every month when we can compare the COT numbers and the BPR numbers...as they are derived from the same data set.
In gold...5 U.S. banks had a net Comex short position of 106,393 contracts in the December BPR. The January report showed that the number of U.S. banks holding short contracts on the Comex had been reduced to 4 banks...and they had reduced their net Comex short position down to 82,204 contracts. It's a safe bet that it's the same banks in gold as it is in silver...with the addition of maybe Morgan Stanley...and they wouldn't have a big position...as the lion's share would most likely be held by JPMorgan Chase.
The Bank Participation Report data was as expected in silver...but a bit of a surprise in gold.
In silver, less than 4 U.S. banks [probably 3] decreased their net Comex short position from 39,573 contracts in the December BPR, down to 32,236 contracts in January's BPR.
Since Ted Butler says that JPMorgan Chase's short position is in the 28,000 Comex contract range, that means that there are only 4,236 Comex contracts left to split up between the two other U.S. banks. Using the past as prologue, I'm guessing that virtually all of that...like 95%...is held by HSBC USA...and a tiny non-material amount is held by Citigroup maybe.
Continuing in silver...15 non-U.S. banks held a net short position in Comex silver in December of 18,199 contracts...and in the January BPR just released, that short position has been reduced down to 14,913 Comex contracts...and only 14 banks. It's my firm belief that more than 10,000 contracts of this amount is held by the Bank of Nova Scotia...like maybe 12,000 contracts...leaving 2,913 contracts to split up between the remaining 13 non-U.S. banks, which is about 225 contracts per non-U.S. bank. As you can tell, these positions are immaterial.
Remember what I said about the 'BIG 2' in silver when I was talking about them in the COT Report further up. What the BPR does, is strip these two bullion banks naked for all to see. That's how concentrated their positions are...and there is just no way for them to hide on this one day every month when we can compare the COT numbers and the BPR numbers...as they are derived from the same data set.
In gold...5 U.S. banks had a net Comex short position of 106,393 contracts in the December BPR. The January report showed that the number of U.S. banks holding short contracts on the Comex had been reduced to 4 banks...and they had reduced their net Comex short position down to 82,204 contracts. It's a safe bet that it's the same banks in gold as it is in silver...with the addition of maybe Morgan Stanley...and they wouldn't have a big position...as the lion's share would most likely be held by JPMorgan Chase.
Continuing in gold...19 non-U.S. banks were net short 44,707 Comex contracts in the December BPR...and are now net short 45,847 Comex gold contracts in January's BPR. The surprise here is there was a net increase from December to January...which I wasn't expecting at all. And, once again, I'd bet serious money that well over a third of that short position is held by the Bank of Nova Scotia. That leaves 18 non-U.S. banks net short a bit under 30,000 Comex gold contracts...and if you can divide, the individual positions of these 18 bank is immaterial.
The one caveat to these 'immaterial' short positions in both silver and gold is that there is massive collusion within the ranks of the smaller trader...and these smaller banks may influence prices if they work together, like Ted Butler's raptors...and I'm sure that they do it at times.
Here's a graphic representation of the Bank Participation Report for silver going back to 2000. There are five charts in all...and the first two are price and open interest...and the third is the number of U.S. and non-U.S. banks. Charts 4 and 5 require one minute of thinking.
In some ways, charts 4 and 5 are identical to the "Days to Cover Comex Short Positions" charts from the COT data above...except they are for U.S. and non-U.S. banks only...and it shows just how dominant they are once they're stripped out from the crowd. The 'click to enlarge' feature works wonders here.
The one caveat to these 'immaterial' short positions in both silver and gold is that there is massive collusion within the ranks of the smaller trader...and these smaller banks may influence prices if they work together, like Ted Butler's raptors...and I'm sure that they do it at times.
Here's a graphic representation of the Bank Participation Report for silver going back to 2000. There are five charts in all...and the first two are price and open interest...and the third is the number of U.S. and non-U.S. banks. Charts 4 and 5 require one minute of thinking.
In some ways, charts 4 and 5 are identical to the "Days to Cover Comex Short Positions" charts from the COT data above...except they are for U.S. and non-U.S. banks only...and it shows just how dominant they are once they're stripped out from the crowd. The 'click to enlarge' feature works wonders here.
*****
selected news items and views
The Atlantic: What’s Inside America’s Banks?
Some four years after the 2008 financial crisis, public trust in banks is as low as ever. Sophisticated investors describe big banks as “black boxes” that may still be concealing enormous risks—the sort that could again take down the economy. A close investigation of a supposedly conservative bank’s financial records uncovers the reason for these fears—and points the way toward urgent reforms.
This huge essay was posted in the January/February edition of The Atlantic...and the first thing I noticed about it was that it was co-authored by Frank Partnoy. Frank wrote the book F.I.A.S.C.O. - Blood in the Water on Wall Street back in 1997...and I devoured it. Based on that book, I would suggest that this is more than worth the read as well. I borrowed it from the King Report earlier this week...and the link is here.
This huge essay was posted in the January/February edition of The Atlantic...and the first thing I noticed about it was that it was co-authored by Frank Partnoy. Frank wrote the book F.I.A.S.C.O. - Blood in the Water on Wall Street back in 1997...and I devoured it. Based on that book, I would suggest that this is more than worth the read as well. I borrowed it from the King Report earlier this week...and the link is here.
Clock ticks down for decision on Detroit finances
Detroit's fiscal future could soon be out of its hands if a team of state officials determines that the nation's former auto and manufacturing giant is so firmly entrenched in a financial emergency that it cannot climb out on its own.
Mayor Dave Bing, who has been dead-set against state oversight, said earlier this week that results of a month-long review of the city's red ink-stained books could be presented as early as Friday to Gov. Rick Snyder.
But that will probably be delayed after Snyder on Thursday asked the state-appointed review team to take a closer look at Detroit's cash flow problems and potential options for addressing health care, pension and other long-term obligations.
If the governor determines there is a financial emergency, the mayor would have 10 days to request a hearing under Michigan law. Snyder could then revoke his decision or appoint a manager who would be responsible for overseeing all of Detroit's spending.
This AP item showed up on the yahoo.com Internet site early yesterday...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it. The link is here.
Mayor Dave Bing, who has been dead-set against state oversight, said earlier this week that results of a month-long review of the city's red ink-stained books could be presented as early as Friday to Gov. Rick Snyder.
But that will probably be delayed after Snyder on Thursday asked the state-appointed review team to take a closer look at Detroit's cash flow problems and potential options for addressing health care, pension and other long-term obligations.
If the governor determines there is a financial emergency, the mayor would have 10 days to request a hearing under Michigan law. Snyder could then revoke his decision or appoint a manager who would be responsible for overseeing all of Detroit's spending.
This AP item showed up on the yahoo.com Internet site early yesterday...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it. The link is here.
Pimco's El-Erian complains about market manipulation by central banks -- and the FT prints it!
The investment recommendations made by many financial commentators are now dominated by cross-asset class relative valuation rather than the fundamentals of the investment itself. A typical refrain runs something like this: Buy X because it is cheaper than other things out there.
This is an understandable approach as unusual central bank activism has artificially elevated certain asset prices. Yet the dominance of this increasingly popular advice comes with potential risks that need to be well understood and well managed.
Several asset classes now have highly manipulated prices due to experimental central bank activities, both actual and signalled. The more this happens, the more investors come under pressure to migrate to higher risk investments in search of returns. Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said as much at his latest press conference, noting that the aim of policy is to "push" investors to take more risk. True to his wish, many pundits seem eager to discard fundamentals in favour of searching for (and levering) anything that "yields" more.
This article showed up in the Financial Times of London yesterday...and it's posted in the clear in this GATA release...and it's definitely worth reading. The link is here.
This is an understandable approach as unusual central bank activism has artificially elevated certain asset prices. Yet the dominance of this increasingly popular advice comes with potential risks that need to be well understood and well managed.
Several asset classes now have highly manipulated prices due to experimental central bank activities, both actual and signalled. The more this happens, the more investors come under pressure to migrate to higher risk investments in search of returns. Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said as much at his latest press conference, noting that the aim of policy is to "push" investors to take more risk. True to his wish, many pundits seem eager to discard fundamentals in favour of searching for (and levering) anything that "yields" more.
This article showed up in the Financial Times of London yesterday...and it's posted in the clear in this GATA release...and it's definitely worth reading. The link is here.
Quaintance and Brodsky: Enough of the favoritism -- get on with the devaluation
In their new reflection on the world economy and international financial system, the economists and fund managers Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management in New York have had enough of central bank favoritism and subsidies to big banks and rich folk with access to discounted capital, the financial gaming that has indefinitely postponed real economic growth, the scheming for faster mechanisms of infinite money creation (like the trillion-dollar platinum coin) and market leverage, and the loss of sensible valuations. Time, Quaintance and Brodsky say, to get on with the big reset, the worldwide devaluation of currencies and their pegging to sovereign gold reserves.
The link to this 14-page report is embedded in a GATA release...along with a few other things that Chris Powell has to say. The report is worth your time, if you have it...and the link to the GATA dispatch is here.
The link to this 14-page report is embedded in a GATA release...along with a few other things that Chris Powell has to say. The report is worth your time, if you have it...and the link to the GATA dispatch is here.
Cyprus 'debt haircut' not a option, says EU's Olli Rehn after Moody's downgrade
Cyprus applied for a financial rescue last June after its banks suffered huge losses on the EU-approved write-down on Greece's debt.
It has so far failed to persuade its European partners to sign off on the package, given concerns the level of the island's indebtedness means it would be unable to repay the aid without further concessions from international lenders.
But "a haircut is not an option for us," Olli Rehn, the European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, told the German business daily Handelsblatt in an interview.
Ratings agency Moody's slashed Cyprus's credit rating by three notches late on Thursday on an expected rise in its liabilities, adding that it saw a 50pc probability the Mediterranean island would "default outright or press for a distressed exchange" on its debt.
It has so far failed to persuade its European partners to sign off on the package, given concerns the level of the island's indebtedness means it would be unable to repay the aid without further concessions from international lenders.
But "a haircut is not an option for us," Olli Rehn, the European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, told the German business daily Handelsblatt in an interview.
Ratings agency Moody's slashed Cyprus's credit rating by three notches late on Thursday on an expected rise in its liabilities, adding that it saw a 50pc probability the Mediterranean island would "default outright or press for a distressed exchange" on its debt.
Japan approves £73bn stimulus package
Japan's cabinet approved on Friday 10.3 trillion yen (£73bn) economic stimulus package in the biggest spending boost since the financial crisis as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pursues an ambitious agenda to spur growth and end nagging deflation.
The government will spend the funds on public works, incentives for corporate investment and financial aid for small firms to help the economy emerge from a mild recession triggered by falling exports last year.
It expects the stimulus to raise real economic growth by 2 percentage points and create 600,000 jobs.
The stimulus package is part of a 13.1 trillion yen extra budget for the current fiscal year to March due to be approved by the cabinet next week.
Mr Abe is gambling that a shift to a more expansionary fiscal policy and more monetary easing from the central bank can end years of stop-start growth.
This news item was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday morning GMT...and it is, of course, another offering from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
The government will spend the funds on public works, incentives for corporate investment and financial aid for small firms to help the economy emerge from a mild recession triggered by falling exports last year.
It expects the stimulus to raise real economic growth by 2 percentage points and create 600,000 jobs.
The stimulus package is part of a 13.1 trillion yen extra budget for the current fiscal year to March due to be approved by the cabinet next week.
Mr Abe is gambling that a shift to a more expansionary fiscal policy and more monetary easing from the central bank can end years of stop-start growth.
This news item was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday morning GMT...and it is, of course, another offering from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
China’s Inflation Accelerates as Chill Boosts Food Prices
China’s inflation accelerated more than forecast to a seven-month high as the nation’s coldest winter in 28 years pushed up vegetable prices, a pickup that may limit room for easing to support an economic recovery.
The consumer price index rose 2.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the 2.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 economists and a 2 percent gain in November. The decline in the producer-price index eased to 1.9 percent.
Chinese stocks headed for the biggest drop in eight weeks on concern that the quickening in inflation makes further policy loosening less likely, after data yesterday on exports and credit growth underscored the strength of the economic rebound. Chen Yulu, a central bank academic adviser, said Jan. 8 that price gains may become a concern in the second half.
This Bloomberg story was posted on their website yesterday...and I found it in the King Report. The link is here.
The consumer price index rose 2.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the 2.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 economists and a 2 percent gain in November. The decline in the producer-price index eased to 1.9 percent.
Chinese stocks headed for the biggest drop in eight weeks on concern that the quickening in inflation makes further policy loosening less likely, after data yesterday on exports and credit growth underscored the strength of the economic rebound. Chen Yulu, a central bank academic adviser, said Jan. 8 that price gains may become a concern in the second half.
This Bloomberg story was posted on their website yesterday...and I found it in the King Report. The link is here.
Three King World News Blogs
The first is with Ben Davies...and it's headlined "Gold is Now Set Up For a Vertical Price Explosion". The second one is with Dr. Stephen Leeb. It bears the title "Chinese to Increase Gold & Silver Storage a Staggering 180%". And lastly is this interview with Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick...and it bears the headline "Expect Higher Gold & Unemployment as Stocks Set to Plunge".
Gold emerges as euro debt-crisis option
Ansgar Belke, former Research Director for International Macroeconomics at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, talks in depth about a paper that he authored for the EU Parliament on using gold as collateral for highly distressed sovereign bonds.
Belke is Professor of Macroeconomics and director of the Institute of Business and Economic Studies (IBES) at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. He was the research director for
International Macroeconomics at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin until October 2012, and since 2012 he is (ad personam) Jean Monnet Professor.
He is, inter alia, a member of the "Monetary Experts Panel" of the European Parliament and the Committees for Economic Policy and International Economics within the German Economic Association.
This 2-page interview was conducted by Lars Schall...and was posted on theAsia Times website yesterday. The link is here.
Belke is Professor of Macroeconomics and director of the Institute of Business and Economic Studies (IBES) at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. He was the research director for
International Macroeconomics at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin until October 2012, and since 2012 he is (ad personam) Jean Monnet Professor.
He is, inter alia, a member of the "Monetary Experts Panel" of the European Parliament and the Committees for Economic Policy and International Economics within the German Economic Association.
This 2-page interview was conducted by Lars Schall...and was posted on theAsia Times website yesterday. The link is here.
Report commissioned by World Gold Council hints at the war against gold
A report commissioned by the World Gold Council for the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London, written by the chairman of the forum's advisory board, Meghnad Desai, more or less acknowledges what we've never seen the gold council acknowledge, the most important aspect of gold's place in the international financial system -- that is, that there is a war against gold.
"Most crucial with respect to the role of gold," Desai writes in his introduction, "the previously dominant Western economies have attempted to dismantle the yellow metal's monetary role, and -- for a variety of reasons -- this has comprehensively failed."
The rest of Chris Powell's preamble...and the link to the 44-page report...can be found in this GATA dispatch from yesterday. The link is here.
"Most crucial with respect to the role of gold," Desai writes in his introduction, "the previously dominant Western economies have attempted to dismantle the yellow metal's monetary role, and -- for a variety of reasons -- this has comprehensively failed."
The rest of Chris Powell's preamble...and the link to the 44-page report...can be found in this GATA dispatch from yesterday. The link is here.
Public U.S. gold audit petition hits White House website
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) and other advocates--who argue the quantity of gold held by the world’s central banks, international bullion banks, and future exchanges is overstated--are backing a petition demanding an assayed public audit of the U.S. gold reserve, published Wednesday on the White House petitions website.
The petition reads: “As of 12/31/2012, the US Treasury claims to hold 261 million ounces of gold at Denver, Fort Knox, West Point and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This bullion was last subjected to a full physical audit in 1953.”
I have two stories on this. The one above was posted on the mineweb.comInternet site yesterday...and the link to that one is here. It was also picked up by Zero Hedge...and that link is here. I thank Marshall Angeles and reader 'David in California' for sending them along...and I hope you have the time to add your name to the list.
The petition reads: “As of 12/31/2012, the US Treasury claims to hold 261 million ounces of gold at Denver, Fort Knox, West Point and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This bullion was last subjected to a full physical audit in 1953.”
I have two stories on this. The one above was posted on the mineweb.comInternet site yesterday...and the link to that one is here. It was also picked up by Zero Hedge...and that link is here. I thank Marshall Angeles and reader 'David in California' for sending them along...and I hope you have the time to add your name to the list.
Indian gold imports surge amid fears of further duty hikes
While jewellers across India are planning to launch an agitation against the Indian government's proposal to increase import duty on gold to around 6% from the current 4%, a massive jump in gold imports has been witnessed across the country.
"With the news that the government is considering such a move (to hike import duty) and could most probably make an announcement in the Budget next month, bullion houses have jacked up their imports of the precious metal considerably since the last week,'' said Prithviraj Kothari, of bullion house Ridhi Sidhi Bullions.
"As compared to the normal 5-6 metric tonnes each week, traders have imported more than 30 metric tonnes already in the last five days,'' he added.
This must read story was filed from Mumbai yesterday...and was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site. The link is here.
"With the news that the government is considering such a move (to hike import duty) and could most probably make an announcement in the Budget next month, bullion houses have jacked up their imports of the precious metal considerably since the last week,'' said Prithviraj Kothari, of bullion house Ridhi Sidhi Bullions.
"As compared to the normal 5-6 metric tonnes each week, traders have imported more than 30 metric tonnes already in the last five days,'' he added.
This must read story was filed from Mumbai yesterday...and was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site. The link is here.
High gold prices push India's farmers toward silver
Most of the farming community across Haryana and Punjab in North India, were buying silver as a cheaper alternative to the more expensive gold for investment purpose. "The trend began at the end of 2010 when silver prices started rallying to a 30 year high. The price of silver has great potential to go even higher this year. Plus, most shops have been showcasing exquisite silver jewellery items. The lure is too much," he added.
Corporation Bank, which had opened a gold loan centre for small and medium enterprises and a gold loan shop at Chandigarh recently, said there was more interest in silver bars at the counter.
"The white metal is attracting a lot of investor attention locally as the silver price is forecast to rise this year. Gold, on the other hand, is static and its current high price is keeping most people away," said an official.
This is another story from the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and it was also filed from Mumbai. The link is here.
Corporation Bank, which had opened a gold loan centre for small and medium enterprises and a gold loan shop at Chandigarh recently, said there was more interest in silver bars at the counter.
"The white metal is attracting a lot of investor attention locally as the silver price is forecast to rise this year. Gold, on the other hand, is static and its current high price is keeping most people away," said an official.
This is another story from the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and it was also filed from Mumbai. The link is here.
*****
¤ THE WRAP
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded--here and there, now and then--are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty. This is known as “bad luck.” - Lazarus Long [The quote is from a novel by Robert Heinlein. The character Lazarus Long appeared in several of his books. - Ed]
Today's 'blast from the past' is instantly recognizable...as is the group that sings it. So turn up your speakers and enjoy. The link is here.
Today's classical 'blast from the past' is the most famous of arias from Mozart's opera The Magic Flute. This version was ripped out of the 1984 Miloš Forman move Amadeus...and if you've never seen this flick, you owe it to you to do so. The link is here.
Well, it couldn't get much more blatant, now could it? JPMorgan et al just don't give a damn whose watching, because there's no adult supervision to be found anywhere...and the spineless silver and gold mining companies won't lift a finger on behalf of their shareholders.
But one thing is for sure, it shows just how desperate this situation is becoming...especially in silver. The fact that delivery times are now getting stretched out for precious metals just about everywhere on Planet Earth means that there's big trouble coming in River City...and only the timing is unknown. And the frantic in/out activity at the Comex...plus the goings-on in SLV over the last month, shows how frantic things are getting. It's my opinion that it's only a matter of time before the whole things comes unglued.
Ted Butler had this to say about it in his closing paragraph to his paying subscribers on Wednesday..."Throw in the probability that the simmering physical shortage will turn into a full boil on a moment's notice...and the only prudent approach is to hold onto long-term silver positions tightly." Amen to that, as that's precisely what I'm doing.
Today's 'blast from the past' is instantly recognizable...as is the group that sings it. So turn up your speakers and enjoy. The link is here.
Today's classical 'blast from the past' is the most famous of arias from Mozart's opera The Magic Flute. This version was ripped out of the 1984 Miloš Forman move Amadeus...and if you've never seen this flick, you owe it to you to do so. The link is here.
Well, it couldn't get much more blatant, now could it? JPMorgan et al just don't give a damn whose watching, because there's no adult supervision to be found anywhere...and the spineless silver and gold mining companies won't lift a finger on behalf of their shareholders.
But one thing is for sure, it shows just how desperate this situation is becoming...especially in silver. The fact that delivery times are now getting stretched out for precious metals just about everywhere on Planet Earth means that there's big trouble coming in River City...and only the timing is unknown. And the frantic in/out activity at the Comex...plus the goings-on in SLV over the last month, shows how frantic things are getting. It's my opinion that it's only a matter of time before the whole things comes unglued.
Ted Butler had this to say about it in his closing paragraph to his paying subscribers on Wednesday..."Throw in the probability that the simmering physical shortage will turn into a full boil on a moment's notice...and the only prudent approach is to hold onto long-term silver positions tightly." Amen to that, as that's precisely what I'm doing.
Silver is back under its 200-day moving average once again...and gold is sitting right on its 200-day moving average. It appears that the prices of both metals are being held in place...but for what reason...and how long? Beats me.
And then the question becomes...are we going higher or lower from there. If you waded through what I had to say in the COT Report and the BPR, you can see that its just a small handful of bullion banks trying to keep the precious metals market from blowing sky high.
In my estimation it has now become a death watch...and what part this $1 trillion dollar platinum coin has play in all this, is not known. It may come to nothing, but I have a hunch that we haven't heard the last of this insanity.
My last chart of the day is one of my favourites from Nick. It's the "Total PMs Pool"...and it's at another new high...a relentless and most likely unstoppable trend with unlimited fiat currency printing upon us.
And then the question becomes...are we going higher or lower from there. If you waded through what I had to say in the COT Report and the BPR, you can see that its just a small handful of bullion banks trying to keep the precious metals market from blowing sky high.
In my estimation it has now become a death watch...and what part this $1 trillion dollar platinum coin has play in all this, is not known. It may come to nothing, but I have a hunch that we haven't heard the last of this insanity.
My last chart of the day is one of my favourites from Nick. It's the "Total PMs Pool"...and it's at another new high...a relentless and most likely unstoppable trend with unlimited fiat currency printing upon us.
That's all for this week...and I'll see you right here on Tuesday.
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