China and Japan - stumbling toward a shooting War on some type of incident soon ?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/16/c_124241030.htm

Chinese leader calls for dialogue to resolve Diaoyu Islands issue

English.news.cn   2013-01-16 23:10:29

Jia Qinglin (R), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, meets with Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 16, 2013. (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)

BEIJING, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Top political advisor Jia Qinglin said Wednesday that China and Japan should resolve the Diaoyu Islands dispute through dialogue and consultation.

"The two sides should handle the Diaoyu Islands dispute properly in order to ensure that bilateral relations remain on a track of healthy and stable development," said Jia, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), while meeting with former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

Jia said cooperation between China and Japan will serve the fundamental interests of both sides, as well as the region and the international community.

China attaches importance to its ties with Japan and will continue to work to develop bilateral relations in accordance with previous agreements, Jia said.

Hatoyama said Japan needs to work with China to tackle global issues, as well as promote cooperation in east Asia.

Hatoyama, who is currently on a personal visit to China, said current difficulties in bilateral relations should be solved through dialogue.

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http://www.phantomreport.com/japan-conducts-paratrooper-exercises-over-east-china-sea

Japan conducts paratrooper exercises over East China Sea

by PHANTOM REPORT on JANUARY 15, 2013

Source: WCT

Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force 1st Airborne Brigade conducted exercises on Jan. 13 in an apparent demonstration of force which could be used in a future conflict with China over the disputed Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands, the Chinese-language Beijing News reports.

Stationed at Camp Narashino in Funabashi, Chiba prefecture, the 1st Airborne Brigade, Japan’s elite paratrooper unit is currently one of the best equipped fighting forces in the country. It was established in 1958 to counter Soviet special forces in a hypothetical attack on Japanese territory. In light of the territorial dispute between China and Japan over the islands in the East China Sea, the primary adversary of the 1st Airborne Brigade has switched from the Soviet Union to China’s People’s Liberation Army.

In a potential armed conflict, units would be deployed to the battlefield as rapid reaction force. Soldiers from the brigade have all been trained to use Mandarin Chinese. As the unit is organized to fight a defensive war in an offensive way, it is currently considered the biggest challenge to the PLA should China attempt to establish control over the disputed islands, which are administered by Japan.

With Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s new government taking a tougher stance regarding the dispute, the deputy director of the thinktank China Institute of International Studies, Ruan Zongze, stated that it would be unwise for Japan to rely too much on force to resolve the territorial conflict. Ruan said the exercises will do nothing but hinder regional stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific. To prevent war with China, Ruan suggested the Japanese government reflect on its limitations as China will act if it becomes necessary.

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http://rt.com/news/china-japan-diaoyu-senkaku-822/

Unchartered waters: Japan and China scramble fighter jets in island dispute

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Published: 12 January, 2013, 01:03

TAGS:
Military, Politics, China, Japan

Chinese J-10 fight planes. (AFP Photo)

The standoff between Japan and China escalated to a new level after both sides sent their jets to tail each other in airspace near the cluster of disputed islands that has created tension between the two powers.

A Chinese Y-8 transport plane flew near the vicinity of the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands (as they are known by the Chinese and the Japanese respectively) on what the Defense Ministry in Beijing described as a “routine patrol” on Thursday. It was immediately tailed by a Japanese F-15. Chinese authorities then ordered two more J-10 planes into the air, to perform “verification and monitoring” on the Japanese aircraft.

"Aircraft from Japan's Self-Defense Forces have intensified their surveillance activities against China, and expanded the area of their scope, disturbing the normal patrols and training of Chinese civilian and military aircraft," said a spokesman from China’s Ministry of Defense.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman followed with another statement, accusing Tokyo of “creating tension”.

Japanese officials responded by claiming that Chinese planes have increasingly intruded into the airspace above the islands, which are currently owned by Japan. They noted that over the past year alone jets protecting the area had to be scrambled over 150 times, though it is not clear how many of those were a reaction to China’s presence.

Japan's Air Self-Defense Force F-15 jet fighter (AFP Photo/Kazuhiro Nogi)

The Senkaku Islands, located in the East China Sea, have been controlled by Japan since 1895, but China insists that it has historic rights to them dating back to the 16th century. The archipelago, which is halfway between both countries, is currently uninhabited, but the ground below could house significant mineral resources.

"Our stance that we will adamantly protect our waters and territories has not changed at all. As I said before, there is no room for negotiations," said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the wake.

Japan has just increased its defense budget for the first time in 11 years, while China’s has more than quintupled over the past decade and now trails that only of the US.

For some time the islands have proven a blight in relations, with nationalist politicians from both sides increasing their rhetoric in recent years, but tensions have grown rapidly since the Japanese government purchased all privately owned islands in September last year.

This provoked outrage in China, which turned into several violent demonstrations, with Japanese stores ransacked across the country. Some Chinese workers also organized strikes against Japanese employers.

Economic ties between Asia’s two biggest economies, which amount to an annual trade of $340 billion, have also been damaged, with Japanese businesses withdrawing investment, and Chinese ones looking for suppliers elsewhere. Some have estimated that Japan has lost up to 1 per cent of GDP as a result of the dispute.

This file aerial shot taken on September 15, 2010 shows the disputed islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China in the East China Sea. (AFP Photo/JIJI Press)

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http://www.phantomreport.com/japan-explores-war-scenarios-with-china

Japan Explores War Scenarios with China

by PHANTOM REPORT on JANUARY 8, 2013

Source: The Diplomat

As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party national defense task force announced on Jan. 8 that it would increase the nation’s defense budget by more than 100 billion yen ($1.15 billion), three of five scenarios explored by the defense ministry recently involve the Self-Defense Forces squaring off against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

While contingencies involving North Korea’s ballistic missiles and Russia were among the scenarios the defense ministry explored, the top three all involved a crisis in the East China Sea. The first scenario examined a war between China and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Earlier on Tuesday Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo for the first time since Shinzo Abe was sworn in as prime minister to protest the continued presence of official Chinese ships in waters around the islets, which are claimed by Japan, Taiwan and China.

The second scenario, meanwhile, expands on a Senkaku contingency and looks at a widening war involving PLA attempts to seize the Ishigaki and Miyako Islands west of northern Taiwan.

The third, and perhaps most controversial, scenario focuses on how Japan would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2021, a date reportedly chosen because it coincides with the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the scenario, the PLA would rely mostly on amphibious vehicles, special forces, ballistic missiles, and a fighter blockade to achieve its ends.

Although the latter scenario makes it clear that the hostilities would primarily involve the PLA and Taiwanese military forces, it nevertheless raises the possibility that China would attack U.S. and Japanese bases on Okinawa, while using long-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-31, to threaten aircraft carriers in the region and the Western United States should U.S. forces attempt to intervene in the conflict.

Interestingly, Japan would have a responsibility to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event the PLA engages Taiwanese forces, the Japanese-language Sankei Shimbun said in its reporting on the scenarios on Jan. 1.

There has been much speculation over the years about whether Tokyo would intervene if the PLA ever invaded Taiwan. Reports in 2007 alleged that Japanese and U.S. officials, alarmed by growing Chinese might, were considering a plan to coordinate their actions under such a contingency, with Japan providing rear-area support for U.S. forces as stipulated under the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. It is no coincidence that the efforts in 2007 also occurred when Abe, who is regarded as pro-Taiwan, was in power.

The two countries late last year also agreed to negotiate possible changes to the bilateral guidelines to better reflect changes in the strategic situation as well as give Japanese forces more room to maneuver.

While the scenarios remain in the realm of speculation, Japan’s inclusion of a Taiwan contingency again underscores the importance Tokyo places on Taiwan remaining de-facto independent. Certainly, China’s assertiveness in 2012 in both the East China and the South China Sea has done little to reassure Tokyo that it could live comfortably with a CCP-controlled Taiwan so close to its waters and territory. As such, rather than being amenable to “abandoning” Taiwan, as a handful of U.S. academics have been arguing for the sake of “improved” ties with Beijing, Tokyo may become more inclined to ensure that the island continues to serve as a natural barrier to Chinese expansion.

According to Japanese sources, the largely symbolic 100 billion yen increase in defense spending announced on Jan. 8 will serve to fund research into a new radar system and to cover fuel and other maintenance costs for early-warning aircraft. But this is only the first step, and there could be many more to come. The defense budget for FY2012 ending in March was just 4.69 trillion yen (US$61 billion), or a little more than 1 percent of GDP, leaving ample room for expansion should Japan’s strategic environment continue to deteriorate in the weeks ahead.