http://www.juancole.com/2012/11/four-middle-east-crises-will-face-the-next-president-immediately.html
http://www.debka.com/article/22499/Israel-warns-Damascus-against-Syrian-Golan-overflights
and......
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/11/05/senior-obama-adviser-leads-secret-talks-with-iran/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/irans-untouchable-energy-exports.html
Turkey, like the U.S., is a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while former Soviet republic Armenia has been a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace affiliate program since 1994.
Iraq?
The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA, official name: “Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq”) was signed in 2008, and the U.S. signed a similar SOFA agreement with Afghanistan earlier this year.
As for Pakistan, the military cooperation between Washington and Islamabad is self evident.
So then, five U.S. “allies” are purchasing Iranian electricity.
To give but one instance, Turkey and Iran agreed in August 2007 to jointly pursue an electricity designed to produce 6,000 megawatts, of which a percentage would be exported to Turkey’s relatively isolated eastern provinces adjacent to its 312-mile long frontier with Iran.
And how valuable are these power exports?
From 20 March 2012, the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year to 23 October,Iran exported 6,624 gigawatts of electricity to the quintet of neighboring countries, a 44 percent rise compared to the same period in 2011. On 27 October Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Behzad announced in Tehran that Iran’s electricity exports were worth $5 billion since the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year.
Behzad disclosed the data on the sidelines of 12th International Electricity Exhibition (IEE) currently underway in Tehran. And among those nations attending are Italy, France, Germany and Turkey, all NATO members, along with representatives from China and South Korea.
Expect to see more growth in Iran’s electrical sector. According to Iranian Energy Ministry officials, Iran will become self-sufficient in manufacturing equipment and goods, which are used in the electrical power industry by the end of the current Iranian year, which finishes in March 2013.
Iran’s rising electrical exports to its neighbors presents Washington policymakers hawkish on Iran with the unpleasant reality that the nations importing Iranian electricity are all involved to a lesser or greater degree with regional U.S. military policies, whose cooperation could be endangered if the American administration pressured them too far to downgrade their energy relations with Tehran.
So, for the foreseeable future, Turkish lira, Armenian drams, Pakistani rupees, Iraqi dinars and Afghan afghanis will continue to flow into Iran’s treasury in return for reliable supplies of electricity.
Four Middle East crises will face the next President Immediately
Posted on 11/06/2012 by Juan
American politics is mainly about domestic issues, and the presidential election season has caused a sort of black out of international news on US networks for the most part. But the planet is still out there, even if inhabitants of the large island that is the United States may find it difficult to believer (or difficult to take interest in). Whoever wins the presidency will have to deal with a whole passel of crises that have worsened in the past month.
1. The Syrian revolution/ civil war is lurching from violent to more violent. On Monday, AFP reports two car bombings an air raid, and other fighting. A car bomb in the Mazzeh district killed 11. That neighborhood is largely Alawi Shiite, but it also has some embassies. Some 11 bystanders were killed. President Bashar al-Assad and the elite of the ruling Baath Party belong to the Alawi sect, though the regime still has significant Sunni support. In Hama, a big bomb killed 50 Syrian soldiers, according to opposition sources in Britain,though the regime contested this body count, saying only 2 were killed.The Hama bombing was thought to be the work of al-Nusra Front, a radical Sunni Muslim group. The regime also bombed rebel positions in Idlib province from the air, killing 20 rebel fighters in one town, and killing 14 civilians in another. Fighting continued in Aleppo, the country’s largest single city.
The Baath regime seems to me to control marginally less territory every day, and seems to be in very slow motion collapse.
Meanwhile, in Doha, Qatar, opposition leaders met in hopes of broadening the current Syrian National Council, expatriate dissidents, and making it more effective.
2. The Bahrain version of the Arab Spring continues to boil along, with the Shiite majority and its Sunni dissident allies demanding more democracy and fairer policies from the authoritarian Sunni monarchy. On Monday, five small homemade bombs were set off in the capital, Manama, killing two South Asian guest workers and wounding a third. The violence comes after the government banned all protests. Anti-government rallies have gone on being held, especially in Shiite towns and villages outside the capital.
Only when the Sunni king offers more genuine democracy for his majority-Shiite population will this violence die down. Since the ruling family cannot see the dangers here, it is up to the US president to try to resolve the dispute. The HQ of the US Fifth Fleet is at Manama, the capital of Bahrain.
3. Although most Americans don’t seem to realize, or want to know, that we are fighting a fairly major and ongoing war in Afghanistan, it is still there. The country suffers from an erratic president, a resurgent Taliban movement, and truly impressive levels of corruption. The US plan, of training up a 400,000-man army and security force that could successfully repress the neo-Taliban, is probably unrealistic. But with a December 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of US troops, The plan is going to be sorely tested over the next few months.
4. Iran is still out there, and says it is willing to hold talks with the US over what it says is a civilian nuclear enrichment program. Diplomacy is likely the only way effectively to resolve the Iran crisis, and the US and its allies should get Iran back to the bargaining table.
Although the Obama administration says it wants to ‘rebalance’ toward the Pacific rim nations, the Middle East continues to be a strategic concern of the US. The next president will have to decide almost immediately how to react to these crises.
http://www.debka.com/article/22499/Israel-warns-Damascus-against-Syrian-Golan-overflights
Israel warns Damascus against Syrian Golan overflights
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 6, 2012, 8:54 PM (GMT+02:00)
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Israel has given Damascus a final warning that a military response would be forthcoming if its fighter aircraft infringed the airspace over the Golan demilitarized zones, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.. The warning was relayed through the UN Disengagement Observer Force in an effort to contain any spillover of the Syrian civil war across Israel’s border. Ratcheting up border tensions, Damascus was warned to desist from the following actions:
1. Ordnance of any kind must not be allowed to fly across the border, including shells and bullets.
2. Syrian forces entering the demilitarized zones straddling the Israel-Syrian Golan border would get the same treatment as infiltrators crossing into Israel proper. Israel cited the three Syrian tanks which Saturday, Nov. 3, approached the no-go zone in the course of a battle with rebels around the Circassian village of Beer Ajam. This must not be repeated, Damascus was warned.
3. Syrian fighter-bombers and combat helicopters may not infringe the airspace over those zones, and certainly not Israel’s Golan and Galilee skies.
DEBKAfile has covered four days of evolving tension on Israel’s Golan border with Syria in detail.
On Monday, Nov. 5, we reported that Syrian small-arms fire from 1 kilometer over the Golan border hit the jeep of the Golani Brigade’s Patrol Battalion commander on a routine border patrol. There were no injuries. The jeep was badly damaged. DEBKAfile’s military sources: The incident occurred after a gunfight between Syrian troops and rebels over the Golan town of Quneitra ended in the town falling to the rebels.
Israeli air force planes are patrolling the Golan and Galilee skies of northern Israel after the Syrians were observed preparing aircraft and helicopters to fly to the aid of their defeated ground forces in Quneitra.
After the Syrian army’s 90th Brigade was forced to retreat, Damascus is reported by Western sources about to send reinforcements over to the Golan to recover Quneitra. IDF contingents on the Golan and the Israeli-Lebanese border are high alert in case the Syrian combat spills over the border.
1. Ordnance of any kind must not be allowed to fly across the border, including shells and bullets.
2. Syrian forces entering the demilitarized zones straddling the Israel-Syrian Golan border would get the same treatment as infiltrators crossing into Israel proper. Israel cited the three Syrian tanks which Saturday, Nov. 3, approached the no-go zone in the course of a battle with rebels around the Circassian village of Beer Ajam. This must not be repeated, Damascus was warned.
3. Syrian fighter-bombers and combat helicopters may not infringe the airspace over those zones, and certainly not Israel’s Golan and Galilee skies.
DEBKAfile has covered four days of evolving tension on Israel’s Golan border with Syria in detail.
On Monday, Nov. 5, we reported that Syrian small-arms fire from 1 kilometer over the Golan border hit the jeep of the Golani Brigade’s Patrol Battalion commander on a routine border patrol. There were no injuries. The jeep was badly damaged. DEBKAfile’s military sources: The incident occurred after a gunfight between Syrian troops and rebels over the Golan town of Quneitra ended in the town falling to the rebels.
Israeli air force planes are patrolling the Golan and Galilee skies of northern Israel after the Syrians were observed preparing aircraft and helicopters to fly to the aid of their defeated ground forces in Quneitra.
After the Syrian army’s 90th Brigade was forced to retreat, Damascus is reported by Western sources about to send reinforcements over to the Golan to recover Quneitra. IDF contingents on the Golan and the Israeli-Lebanese border are high alert in case the Syrian combat spills over the border.
On Sunday, Nov. 4, we reported Israeli warplanes flew over the divided Golan in a show of strength and as a deterrent against the Syrian civil war seeping across the border,DEBKAfile’s military and Western intelligence sources report. In Paris, President Francois Hollande vowed Sunday that “France would oppose with all its strength any bid to destabilize Lebanon. Lebanon must be protected.”
He spoke regardless of the 5,000 Lebanese Shiite Hizballah fighters who have poured into Syria from their Beqaa Valley stronghold of al-Harmel to fight Bashar Assad’s war. Our sources reveal that these Lebanese fighters have now advanced 50-60 kilometers deep into southwestern Syria, up to the outskirts of the embattled town of Homs.
On the Golan, further to the east, Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz visited the IDF contingent stationed there to reinforce the message broadcast by the IAF.
Hizballah is now openly flaunting the presence of its regular troops in Syria. They are armed with heavy artillery and Chinese WS-1 multiple-launch rocket systems made in Iran. These “Katyushas,” shoot 302mm rockets at targets up to 100 kilometers away and can operate in the rugged mountain terrain of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and in harsh weather conditions, including snow.
Hizballah fighters are reported by our sources to have already used this weapon with deadly effect in a battle with Syrian rebels over the town of Quseir opposite the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. It ended in Hizbalah’s capture of the town.
Coordination is tight: Hizballah forces on the ground get in touch with Iranian command headquarters in Beirut and Damascus to call up Syrian helicopters for air cover.
The Hizballah commander in Syria is Ibrahim Aqil, a veteran of the Hizballah militia and one of the most trusted by Hassan Nasrallah and Tehran.
Aqil took part in the 1983 assault on US Marines Beirut headquarters in which 241 American troops were killed, the highest death toll in a single event after World War II. In the year 2000, Aqil, then commander of the southern Lebanese front against Israel, orchestrated the kidnap from Israeli territory and murder of three Israeli soldiers, Benny Avraham, Adi Avitan and Omar Sawad.
Hizballah’s expeditionary force in Syria has been assigned three missions:
On the Golan, further to the east, Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz visited the IDF contingent stationed there to reinforce the message broadcast by the IAF.
Hizballah is now openly flaunting the presence of its regular troops in Syria. They are armed with heavy artillery and Chinese WS-1 multiple-launch rocket systems made in Iran. These “Katyushas,” shoot 302mm rockets at targets up to 100 kilometers away and can operate in the rugged mountain terrain of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and in harsh weather conditions, including snow.
Hizballah fighters are reported by our sources to have already used this weapon with deadly effect in a battle with Syrian rebels over the town of Quseir opposite the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. It ended in Hizbalah’s capture of the town.
Coordination is tight: Hizballah forces on the ground get in touch with Iranian command headquarters in Beirut and Damascus to call up Syrian helicopters for air cover.
The Hizballah commander in Syria is Ibrahim Aqil, a veteran of the Hizballah militia and one of the most trusted by Hassan Nasrallah and Tehran.
Aqil took part in the 1983 assault on US Marines Beirut headquarters in which 241 American troops were killed, the highest death toll in a single event after World War II. In the year 2000, Aqil, then commander of the southern Lebanese front against Israel, orchestrated the kidnap from Israeli territory and murder of three Israeli soldiers, Benny Avraham, Adi Avitan and Omar Sawad.
Hizballah’s expeditionary force in Syria has been assigned three missions:
1. To seal off the routes used by the rebels to smuggle fighters and arms from Lebanon into Syria, most of which run through the Beqaa Valley. This mission is near completion.
2. To defend the clusters of Syrian Alawite and Shiite villages in the area of Hizballah control.
3. To provide a strategic reserve force for the Syrian units defending the main hubs of Syrian highways running west to east from the Mediterranean coast to the Syrian-Iraqi border and crisscrossed from north to south by the route running from the Turkish border up to Damascus. Control of these hubs makes it possible for the Syrian army to move military forces between the different warfronts at high speed.
2. To defend the clusters of Syrian Alawite and Shiite villages in the area of Hizballah control.
3. To provide a strategic reserve force for the Syrian units defending the main hubs of Syrian highways running west to east from the Mediterranean coast to the Syrian-Iraqi border and crisscrossed from north to south by the route running from the Turkish border up to Damascus. Control of these hubs makes it possible for the Syrian army to move military forces between the different warfronts at high speed.
and......
Bomb Hits Damascus Hotel as Rebel Blocs Meet in Qatar
US Aims to Impose New Leaders on Syrian Rebels
by Jason Ditz, November 04, 2012
Security in the Syrian capital city of Damascus took another blow today, when rebels detonated a bomb in front of a major hotel in the same district as several major military and security compounds. Activists say the attack was likely the work of the Ahfad al-Rasoul Brigade, which has regularly carried out bombing attacks.
The number of different rebel factions with different agendas has made it difficult for the regime to keep up with the attacks, but has also complicated Western efforts to pump aid into the rebellion, which has no real leadership. They are hoping to change that with a meeting which began today in Doha, Qatar.
Already major disagreements are emerging at the conference however, particularly as the Syrian National Council (SNC), one of the oldest rebel factions, is facing a battle with the Obama Administration, which last week announced its intention to handpick a new leadership of the rebel movement.
A compromise deal is being discussed that would give the SNC a portion of the leadership in a new leadership group, but it is unclear whether this new group will actually “unify” the fighting on the ground, or if it is just going to be another umbrella group set up outside the country and ignored by the combatants.
and in Libya , militias complain other militias going rogue .......
Gun-Battle in Central Tripoli as Libyan Militias Accuse Rivals of Going ‘Rogue’
Revolutionaries 'Still Think They're Revolutionaries'
by Jason Ditz, November 04, 2012
A major gun-battle has erupted in the center of the Libyan capital of Tripoli, with pro-government militias going after another militia that they accused of having “gone rogue” and no longer following the orders of the new regime.
“The problem is that the revolutionaries still think they’re revolutionaries, not employees who march to orders,” insisted one of the officials of the militia union that runs the city, and which said the group they were attacking is no longer a “legitimate” militia.
The various militias across Libya regularly battle from city to city, but the new battle is unusual as it is centered around a self-proclaimed leadership union’s estimation of which militias are technically militias in a single city.
Usually the fighting involves pro-government militias accusing a rival of being “pro-Gadhafi,” even though he is long dead, but in this case they aren’t making any such allegation, instead accusing the group of being “lawless.”
Eight people, including police, have been injured as militias continue to attack the “rogue” faction, which has barricaded itself into the former intelligence headquarters. Several buildings in the neighborhood have also been looted, though it isn’t clear who is doing the looting.
and no November surprise from Iran on unilaterally stopping enrichment - query , why is Val Jarret leading talks with Iran regarding their nuclear program ....meanwhile Iran continues to export electricity and no steps are being taken to stop this trade.....
Senior Obama Adviser Leads Secret Talks With Iran
Chicago lawyer Valerie Jarrett is leading the effort, although she has no experience in high-stakes diplomacy
by John Glaser, November 05, 2012
President Obama’s close confidant and long-time friend of First Lady Michelle Obama, Chicago lawyer Valerie Jarrett, is leading behind the scenes negotiations with representatives of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Israeli officials with knowledge of the effort say.
Jarret, who was born in the Iranian city of Shiraz to American parents, is a senior advisor to US President Barack Obama and, Israeli officials claim, initiated and led secret talks with Iran in Bahrain, although she does not have any past experience with such high-stakes diplomacy.
Last month, the New York Times reported that the US and Iran have agreed to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program immediately following the US presidential elections. Officials later tried to deny this, but admitted the secret talks took place for a meeting in principle.
Such high-level, one-on-one negotiations between the Iranian regime and Washington would be unprecedented, and many have hopes that a grand bargain will be agreed up.
But even if the talks do occur in the event of a victory for Obama, it’s not clear they’ll be fruitful. Talks have floundered at various levels throughout Obama’s first term.
The closest the parties came to settlement was a deal in which Iran would halt 20 percent uranium enrichment in exchange for swapping enriched uranium for foreign-made fuel rods. Iran initially rejected the deal, but reluctantly agreed after Brazil and Turkey joined in the discussions. By that point, the Obama administration rejected Iranian acquiescence, in favor of sanctions.
Most of the so-called diplomacy with Iran has been “predicated on intimidation, illegal threats of military action, unilateral ‘crippling’ sanctions, sabotage, and extrajudicial killings of Iran’s brightest minds,” writes Reza Nasri at PBS Frontline’s Tehran Bureau. These postures have spoiled much chance to resolve the issues.
After the failed talks in 2009 and 2010, wherein Obama ended up rejecting the very deal he demanded the Iranians accept, as Harvard professor Stephen Walt has written, the Iranian leadership “has good grounds for viewing Obama as inherently untrustworthy.” Former CIA analyst Paul Pillar has concurred, arguing that Iran has “ample reason” to believe, “ultimately the main Western interest is in regime change.”
Misquoted: Iran Denies Halting 20 Percent Uranium Enrichment
Official Said Iran Was Prepared to Halt It for End to Sanctions
by Jason Ditz, November 04, 2012
Early reports today that the Iranian government had suspended all 20 percent uranium enrichment as a show of “goodwill” ahead of the next round of talks with the P5+1 have turned out to be false, and were based on a misquote of Iranian MP Mohammad Hassad Asafari.
The reports emerged overnight from Al-Arabiya, which cited a quote from Asafari making the claim to the ISNA news agency. Asafari, a top member of Iran’s foreign policy committee, explained what happened in several Iranian media outlets.
In comments to PressTV, Asafari maintained that the report was based on comments saying that Iran is “ready to temporarily supply its need for 20%-enriched uranium for its 5-megawatt Tehran Reactor from abroad if the sanctions are lifted.”
This is roughly in line with what other officials have said in the past few months. The aging US-built Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) supplies medical isotopes for Iran, and relies on 20% enriched uranium fuel rods. Though Iran has been able to enrich to this level its ability to reliably produce the rods is still in doubt, and it has been eager on several occasions to trade uranium for the rods outright. The bulk of Iran’s enrichment is at a much lower level needed for fueling the Bushehr nuclear reactor, a newer Russian-built model that supplies electricity.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2012
Iran’s Untouchable Energy Exports
Yves here. Media reports in the US stress how tightening sanctions against Iran, particularly on banks, are increasingly isolating Iran, leading its currency to fall sharply. This article describes a key break in the cordon, that of electricity exports. But Iran’s major source of foreign exchange, its official dollar oil-related payments, via Standard Chartered, were roughly $500 million a day. The electricity trade is small relative to this total, but it is also an interesting act of defiance among American “allies”.
Few people are aware that Iran is currently subjected to not one, but three sets of sanctions imposed by U.S., the United Nations and the European Union, the latter two over concerns about Iran’s civilian nuclear energy program, which both Washington and Israel allege masks a covert nuclear weapons program, a charge Iran steadfastly denies.
The first U.S. economic sanctions against Iran were instituted in 1979 following the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy and its replacement by an Islamic Republic, while the first United Nations Security Council sanctions again Iran were implemented by Resolution 1737, voted in 23 December 2006. Earlier this year, European Union foreign ministers agreed to place sanctions on Iranian oil and oil products because of Iran’s purported non-compliance with its obligations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and the EU sanctions entered into force on 1 July.
The collective effect of the trio of legislative restrictions is to impede Iranian oil and natural gas exports, the source of the majority of its foreign currency earnings until Tehran suspends its uranium enrichment activities. Iran maintains that by signing and ratifying the NPT, its Article IV permits its current nuclear activities.
But while the legislation has increasingly shut off Iranian hydrocarbon exports, there is one sector of Iran’s energy industry that is flourishing – electricity exports.
And this trade, lucrative as it is, stymies Washington’s efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy because, in four out of five instances, the trade is with U.S. allies.
According to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration, “Iran is a net exporter of electric power and currently exports electricity to neighboring states including Armenia, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan.”
And exactly who are these miscreant states aiding and abetting the Iranian economy?
Related Article: Iran Finally Blinks in Terms of Sanctions Pressure
Turkey, like the U.S., is a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while former Soviet republic Armenia has been a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace affiliate program since 1994.
Iraq?
The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA, official name: “Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq”) was signed in 2008, and the U.S. signed a similar SOFA agreement with Afghanistan earlier this year.
As for Pakistan, the military cooperation between Washington and Islamabad is self evident.
So then, five U.S. “allies” are purchasing Iranian electricity.
To give but one instance, Turkey and Iran agreed in August 2007 to jointly pursue an electricity designed to produce 6,000 megawatts, of which a percentage would be exported to Turkey’s relatively isolated eastern provinces adjacent to its 312-mile long frontier with Iran.
And how valuable are these power exports?
From 20 March 2012, the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year to 23 October,Iran exported 6,624 gigawatts of electricity to the quintet of neighboring countries, a 44 percent rise compared to the same period in 2011. On 27 October Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Behzad announced in Tehran that Iran’s electricity exports were worth $5 billion since the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year.
Behzad disclosed the data on the sidelines of 12th International Electricity Exhibition (IEE) currently underway in Tehran. And among those nations attending are Italy, France, Germany and Turkey, all NATO members, along with representatives from China and South Korea.
Expect to see more growth in Iran’s electrical sector. According to Iranian Energy Ministry officials, Iran will become self-sufficient in manufacturing equipment and goods, which are used in the electrical power industry by the end of the current Iranian year, which finishes in March 2013.
Iran’s rising electrical exports to its neighbors presents Washington policymakers hawkish on Iran with the unpleasant reality that the nations importing Iranian electricity are all involved to a lesser or greater degree with regional U.S. military policies, whose cooperation could be endangered if the American administration pressured them too far to downgrade their energy relations with Tehran.
So, for the foreseeable future, Turkish lira, Armenian drams, Pakistani rupees, Iraqi dinars and Afghan afghanis will continue to flow into Iran’s treasury in return for reliable supplies of electricity.
And more deals are on the way, as on 27 October Iran and India signed a Memorandum of Understanding that Iran would provide 4,000 megawatts of electricity exports to India via Pakistan, which as part of the agreement receive 2,000 additional megawatts for its role in facilitating the transfer.
Apparently Iran’s neighbors have concluded that their value to Washington transcends the American administration’s ability to punish them for interacting with Iran.
At least electricity, unlike uranium, is not “dual use.”
At least electricity, unlike uranium, is not “dual use.”
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