Monday, November 5, 2012

Message from Valencia , Spain - Don't get sick .....Around the horn in Europe - Note that even though Greek Prime Minister Samaras has stated Greece will run out of money november 16th - the Troika is still not committing to making a decision on November 12th , in fact they may not decide what happens regarding Greece until early December ....Additional news and data of the day !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/valencia-people-dont-get-sick-pharmacies-strike-indefinitely


Valencia To People: 'Don't Get Sick' As Pharmacies Strike Indefinitely

Tyler Durden's picture




The regional government of the Communidad Valencia owes pharmacies in Valencia, Alicante, and Castellon five and a half months of prescription payments. The EUR450mm debt that is owed has prompted a remarkable (and somewhat justified) action by the pharmacies. As ThinkSpain reports,from today, two in every three pharmacies will be closed each day, on rotation, until the debt is settled. Last week the government settled half of their April debt and half of their May debt using funds from the Regional Liquidity Fund (FLA) but as the pharmacists point out, "this [merely] moves [them] back to where [they] were, since on Wednesday, we'll be adding another month's worth to the ongoing debt." Perhaps this fact - among all the others - combined with the ECB's lies, will bring some reality to the minds of those who see these bailouts as anything but a band-aid - and in fact (in this case) an entirely back-filling band-aid as everyone is faced with a "dramatic situation which has forced [pharmacies] to close indefinitely."


and...

http://www.thinkspain.com/news-spain/21943/catalan-leader-compares-central-government-to-dishonest-business-partner

Catalan leader compares central government to dishonest business partner 
By:
 ThinkSpain , Monday, November 5, 2012
The president of the Generalitat (Catalan regional parliament), Artur Mas, today compared the relationship between Spain and Catalonia to a business partnership, in which one partner not only fails to pay his debts, but fails even to recognise that he has debts.
In a breakfast meeting to talk about the future of Catalonia this morning, Mas explained that it was logical that people are starting to "make noises" about independence and said he was in favour of dealing with it "with solid arguments and great serenity".
"For Catalonia, the Spanish state is like a business partner who blocks all our deals and brings us no capital", said Mas (pictured).
"Imagine," he went on, "that instead of talking about a country, we were talking about a company, with one partner who systematically challenges every decision made by the board of directors in court, and having agreed to invest, fails to do so, spending his money elsewhere instead".
"Imagine too, that on top of all this, the partner disregards commercial law whenever it suits him, makes ill-judged investments, and doesn't want to alter the business model when he can see it is not working," added the Catalan leader.
"This same partner," said Mas, continuing the analogy, "looks after the company's accounts, but systematically hides the results. Knowing that he doesn't pay the invoices when they are due and doesn't even recognise that money is owed, what would we do?" he asked. "Surely we would conclude that something had to be done and a decision should be taken".
Artur Mas was speaking at a breakfast conference for business leaders organised by publishers Ediciones Primera Plana-El PeriĆ³dico.





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/peripherals-plunge-swissgerman-safety-sought-once-again


Peripherals Plunge As Swiss/German Safety Sought Once Again

Tyler Durden's picture





For the tenth day in a row, Portugal's bond spreads widened - now the biggest two-week move since January as its absolute spread is back well above 700bps once again. Spain and Italy have been leaking wider consistently in the last few weeks (+15-25bps from the tights on Friday) and Spanish and Italian equity markets are tumbling back off their post-Draghi euhporia highs (down 2% from Friday's highs alone). Critically, safe-havens are seeing heavy flow; Germany 2Y is back below zero for the first time in two months and Swiss 2Y is below -20bps again. EURUSD is reverting back down to its swap-spread-model implied fair-value as 'hope' fades of OMT's ability to do anything 'real'. Europe's VIX jumped its most in over two weeks to 22.2%.

European stocks are lagging...

European peripherals not having a fun two weeks...Spain/Italy 44bps wider! Portugal +123bps

and Greek bonds have given back 180bps of their yield compression in the last 10 days... a 15% price drop in 10 days!

German and Swiss 2Y rates are at 2-month lows...Germany negative once again!

Portugal is struggling hard...

as the EURUSD reverts down to its swap-spread-implied fair-value...











http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/moments-our-lives


The 'Moments' Of Our Lives

Tyler Durden's picture




Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
“You do not remember the days; you remember the moments.”

                         -The Wizard

We have had two Greek moments, a Portuguese moment, an Irish moment and we are about to possibly have the “moments of our lives” during the next two weeks. America’s primary moment will be tomorrow when the people of the United States exercise their constitutional right and choose a President and a significant amount of the members of Congress. One thing that can be said with certainty is that we have a choice and a real choice. In my mind it is not just a decision of the typical Democratic or Republican politics but a choice between a far more Socialist administration and a Capitalistic option. I find neither choice to be either far left or far right but it is a clear choice without doubt. Personally I am in favor of a safety net for every American but I am not in favor of so many social programs that there is a clear transference of capital from those who have succeeded to those that have not. I also find Mr. Obama’s attacks on Wall Street, on banks and on those who have stood on their own two feet and made something of themselves to be offensive and outside of what I consider to be a core American value which is to applaud and respect those that have worked hard and gained. Finally my decision was molded by politics at the very local level, my house, where you can only spend what you can afford and not a penny more and the policies of the last four years, in my view, have violated that principle. Thus I made my choice. Tomorrow will be a significant moment in time."Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen and six, result happiness.

Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

             -Charles Dickens, David Copperfield

While America turns inward and pays attention to very little else besides our election on Tuesday we may well find ourselves peering outward on short notice.We are told by Greece that they have one week on money left to pay their bills. Here we are on the brink and it is still not clear if the IMF will fund the next tranche or if a number of countries in Europe will pony up either. If there is an extension of Greek terms it is still unknown who is going to pick up the tab for another $40-45 billion that will be required to implement that plan. Back in Athens it is still quite murky whether there are enough votes available to pass the new round of austerity measures demanded by the IMF and the EU. We will have a new moment with all of this without question but the sound of it may very well be heard as a BIG BANG as the friction on the Continent causes a fire to rage out of control where Greek politics or European politics erupts as the long and winding road finally reaches its end. I advise that you pay attention here;decisions will be made as forced by the financial condition of Greece and can kicking is no longer an operative solution now. I predict it will get ugly and real ramifications will cause real shudders and I would be prepared for what must now come as the financial hurricane of Europe hits the shores in Athens.“It was as if, at moments, we were perpetually coming into sight of subjects before which we must stop short, turning suddenly out of alleys that we perceived to be blind, closing with a little bang that made us look at each other--for, like all bangs, it was something louder than we had intended--the doors we had indiscreetly opened.”

                        -Henry James, The Turn of the Screw 

In the meantime one of the Danish banks, after inspection by their central bank, went bankrupt over the weekend. Spain reported out their unemployment rate today which exploded by another 2.7% in just one month. Spain will soon be forced to its knees by their regional debt, by their banks while the ECB is under fire that they lent money to the Spanish banks in an inappropriate and perhaps illegal fashion. I consider the next two weeks to be a moment of “critical mass” where a systemic explosion is not out of the question nor even an outlier given our current circumstances. Grant’s Rules 1-10 “Preservation of Capital” should be uppermost in your minds now and I would suggest a healthy amount of liquidity during this time period. Watch, especially, your counterparty risk and be mindful of the implications of a Greek default because this baby could crawl either way and in a hurry.“She stood for some moments gazing at the sisters, with affection beaming in one eye, and calculation out of the other.”


             -Charles Dickens, Martin Chuzzlewit


and from The Guardian.....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/05/greece-unions-strike-before-vote-on-cuts



Greek unions vow to strike ahead of new cuts vote

Democratic Left party, a partner in conservative-led alliance, pledged it would not support the austerity bill
greece strikes and protests
Trade unions in Greece have vowed to stage 'the mother of all strikes' as parliament votes on another round of budget cuts. Photograph News Pictures / Rex Features
Furious Greek unions have vowed to stage "the mother of all strikes" as the country's parliament prepares to vote on new austerity measures, the condition for further rescue funds that will keep bankruptcy at bay and, in so doing, secure continued membership of the euro.
The fresh round of cutbacks and tax increases – the fourth such package since the outbreak of Europe's debt crisis in Athens three years ago – is likely to be passed, but not without a fight, as public and private sector employees walk off the job on Tuesday in a 48-hour showdown with prime minister Antonis Samaras's fragile coalition.
"These measures may be voted through, but they cannot be enforced because the tolerance levels of Greeks have really passed their limits," said Panos Skourletis, spokesman of the main opposition Syriza party.
"The government does not have the political legitimacy to pass policies which it promised it would renegotiate during the election campaign [in June] and which it knows will lead to the annihilation of our nation. The only way out is fresh elections here and now."
With cuts amounting to more than 5% of GDP, the €13.5bn package has stirred ferocious passions, both in the governing coalition where politicians have spent almost five months negotiating the reforms with international creditors at the EU and IMF, and on the street where anti-bailout forces have pledged to do "whatever it takes" to stop the implementation of measures that will undoubtedly exacerbate the debt-choked country's economic freefall.
Indicative of the heightened political tensions, the small Democratic Left party, a junior partner in Athens' conservative-led alliance, pledged it would not support the austerity bill, which foresees the retirement age being increased from 65 to 67, controversial wage and pension cuts and a radical overhaul of the labour market – all in return for a crucial €31.5bn cash injection to keep the moribund Greek economy afloat.
"We will abstain from voting in favour of the austerity programme because we disagree fully with the labour reforms that are also included in the package," said Dimitris Hadzisokratis, the party's economics chief.
With Greece mired in its worst recession since the second world war amid record levels of poverty and unemployment, the party has argued that further cuts to wages and severance payments will devastate a workforce that has already borne the brunt of the crisis. But Hadzisokratis rejected mounting rumours that the leftist party was considering quitting the coalition, predicting that far from being explosive the social backlash to the measures would be limited. "My own personal feeling is that social reaction will not correspond to the weight of the measures and will be much less than anticipated because people can see there is no alternative," he said.
Addressing his own wavering MPs, Samaras insisted that the choice was stark. Either the measures were passed, or bankruptcy and euro exit beckoned. "The problem is not whether this measure or the other is adopted … [but] what would happen if the measures did not pass, if the loan agreement was not finalised," he said conceding that ordinary wage earners had already lost 35% of their income over the past two years. "If we were forced to leave the euro now, we would lose at least twice that amount within a few weeks. Our standard of living would fall by about 80%," added the leader, emphasing that the spending cuts would be the "very last" to be imposed on a nation that has come ever closer to breaking point.
But unions beg to differ. With over a quarter of the country's entire workforce out of work and extremism rising on left and right, many fear the package will prove to be the tipping point for Greeks.
Increasingly MPs in the government's other party, the once mighty socialist Pasok, have also revolted with as many as seven deputies refusing to back the measures. Politicians have argued that further belt-tightening will be counter-productive when, far from being tamed, Greece's monumental debt load is projected to hit a record 192% of GDP in 2014 – despite private creditors accepting a write-down in the value of Greek bonds in March.
The country's economy is expected to contract for a sixth straight year in 2013 with national outlay estimated to drop by 4.2% – bringing total losses since the crisis erupted to a whopping 25% of GDP.
"Everyone knows that our debt is totally unsustainable and with that in mind it has made voting for these measures seem even more pointless," confided one socialist deputy.
Dissent in Pasok means that the government is unlikely to pass the measures with anything more than a slim majority which will add to the turmoil in Greece as the coalition's viability comes under ever greater question.
"Elections are inevitable," said Nikos Filis, editor of the Avgi, the paper widely aligned with the views of the main opposition Syriza party. "It is one thing to hear about measures, another to have them applied. The more these are enforced, the greater the reaction will be and the greater the loss to the government's authority."

and....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/05/eurozone-crisis-greece-austerity-package-parliament

Austerity package arrives at parliament

The Greek austerity package has finally reached the Athens parliament.
Greek finance minister Yannis Stournaras presented the programme in the last few minutes, having obtained signatures from all government ministers (following Antonis Roupakiotis's will-he won't he? tango).
So, the game is afoot!
Nothing else is expected to happen today, though. Instead, the programme (known technically as the 3rd memorandum), will be discussed by parliamentary committees on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the whole chamber should discuss the plan – culminating in a nail-biting vote late on Wednesday night.





and......







http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/15-plus-devaluation-coming-spain-and-greece


Is A 15%-Plus Devaluation Coming For Spain And Greece?

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Countries that have the luxury of their own exchange rate are able to eliminate any loss in competitiveness through an exchange rate depreciation, but (as is broadly recognized by now) UBS reminds that in a single currency area the only route available is an adjustment in relative wages.
In order to restore competitiveness, the periphery will have to endure a period of below-average inflation equal to the disequilibrium that an exchange rate adjustment would have delivered. While the fantasy of an orderly Greek exit is gradually being dispelled - as the market recognizes the almost instantaneous bank runs that would be exaggerated from current deposit withdrawals in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland - the euro's survival with any status quo is simply impossible - begging the question of 'so how do they get to the other side?'

The answer, instead of instantaneous devaluation (exit) - akin to tearing the (admittedly big) band-aid off, the devaluation will be undertaken over time to restore competitiveness, the periphery will have to endure a period of below-average inflation equal to the disequilibrium that an exchange rate adjustment would have delivered. This equilibrium 'devaluation' is impossible to know with certainty, but UBS estimates it is over 20% for Greece and 15% for Spain.


Via UBS:
Competitiveness pressures and inflation convergence

Long-run inflation trends in the eurozone will be driven by competitive pressures.Countries that have the luxury of their own exchange rate are able to eliminate any loss in competitiveness through an exchange rate depreciation, but in a single currency area the only route available is an adjustment in relative wages.

In order to restore competitiveness, the periphery will have to endure a period of below-average inflation equal to the disequilibrium that an exchange rate adjustment would have delivered.


Indeed, this is exactly the approach we adopt to estimate the long-run inflation prospects in a single currency zone – we quantify the size of the exchange rate disequilibrium and assume that the disequilibrium is eliminated gradually over a period of time.

Estimating the exchange rate (inflation) disequilibrium

The equilibrium exchange rate is impossible to know with certainty, but conceptually one can think of it as the rate consistent with a country maintaining its internal and external balance. The internal balance can be thought of as full employment and the external balance can be proxied by the current account balance. Taken together, the exchange rate is at equilibrium if unemployment is close to its equilibrium level and the current account is in balance.




We estimate the size of the disequilibrium for a selection of euro-area economies. Chart 5 below summarises our results.

For those of a technical bent of mind, Chart 5 has been generated from a set of econometric equations, one for each country, where we regress the real effective exchange rate against the current account balance and the unemployment rate gap (difference between actual unemployment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU).

REER = a + b Unemployment gap + c Current account balance + u


We then estimate the fair value by asking what exchange rate level is consistent with a zero current account balance and current unemployment compared with the equilibrium rate. The disequilibrium is the gap between the exchange rate and the fair value.

Chart 5: Currency Misalignment In The Euro Area


As discussed above, in a single currency area, real exchange rate misalignments can only be eliminated by relative adjustments to unit labour costs, but if you assume unchanged productivity growth, the brunt of the adjustment will have to take place through wages and inflation. Greece is running a large current account deficit, and unemployment is high. Under the current structure, unless we allow for a large depreciation of the euro, the economy will have to deflate its way to becoming competitive. Germany, on the other hand, is running a large current account surplus, and unemployment is well below the NAIRU. Our simple calculations suggest thatGermany will experience a short period where inflation exceeds the euro-area average.

How quickly that disequilibrium will be eliminated is hard to know, but if we assume a gradual adjustment, say over a 10-year period, the 20% real exchange rate overvaluation in Greece will be eroded by 2% each year, the 15% in Spain by 1.5% each year, and so on.

Source: UBS


How patient will the market be in waiting for the promise of integration to cover this slow and steady competitive devaluation; or alternatively how patient will Greece's poverty-stricken population put up with it? The reflexive nature of the market will accelerate any perceived move in this direction... a 'painless' 15-20% devaluation in Greece and Spain backed by the ECB's promises seems to us the stuff of hopes and dreams and unicorn farts.











http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9654748/Debt-crisis-Weak-services-data-raises-triple-dip-risk-live.html


12.35 Heading back to the UK, the Telegraph's economics editor PhilipAldrick has reported that the weak services data that was out this morning (see 09.35) has raised the risk of a triple-dip recession.
The economy may have contracted again in October, raising the spectre of a triple-dip recession, after activity in the services sector tumbled to its weakest level in 22 months.
Output among services companies, which account for around three-quarters of UK GDP, fell much more sharply in October than expected and followed similar disappointments in the manufacturing and construction indices, according to the closely-watched Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Nida Ali, UK economist at the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said the data suggested “growth in the fourth quarter will be negligible at best”.
Analysts said the poor PMI data had undone some of the boost to confidence delivered by the strong 1pc growth recorded for the three months to September, and increased the chances of the Bank of England relaunching quantitative easing this week.
12.10 In Athens they have also put police fences around the Greekparliament to protect it from the protests.
Photo: AP/Thanassis Stavrakis
12.00 Sticking with Greece and those proposed strikes.
Here are some posters with the title ''All together we'll win'' announcing the 48-hour nationwide general strike of Tuesday and Wednesday, in central Athens.
Greece is facing three days of escalating anti-austerity strikes, with state hospital doctors, taxi drivers, transport workers and journalists walking off the job.
Photo: AP/Thanassis Stavrakis
11.35 A quick look at Greece. Prime minister Antonis Samaras will present the government's new austerity budget to parliament later today, which will include a package of €13.5bn (£10.8bn) in cost cuts and tax hikes along with measures making it easier for firms to hire and fire workers.
Parliament will vote on the budget on Wednesday and it is expectd to just scrape through.
The country is facing a week of strikes and protests over proposals which must win lawmakers' approval if the country is to secure more aid and stave off bankruptcy.
Greece's powerful main public and private sector unions will launch a 48 hour strike against the legislation on Tuesday and plan marches in Athens' city centre. Journalists, doctors, transport workers and shopkeepers are also planning stoppages.
Approval of the reforms and the passage of the 2013 budget are crucial to unlocking €31.5 bn in aid from an International Monetary Fund and European Union bailout that has been on hold since the summer.
"These will be the last cuts in wages and pensions," Samaras said in a speech aimed at galvanizing the members of his centre-right New Democracy party, Reuters reported.
"We promised to avert the country's exit from the euro and this is what we are doing. We have given absolute priority to this because if we do not achieve this everything else will be meaningless."
10.49 Staying in the eurozone, Italy's economy is forecast to shrink by 2.3pc this year and by 0.5pc next year, according to the country's statistics office Istat, as the eurozone's third largest economy continues to muddle through in a recession.
Istat, which revised down an earlier forecast, was more pessimistic about the state of Italy's economy next year than the government, which in September forecast that business activity would contract by 0.2pc in 2013.
Thousands of students march against against austerity measures in Turin, Italy.

09.35 The PMI figures out of the UK are not so good though. The PMI figures show that, while the services activity did grow in October, it was at the weakest pace in the current 22-month period of rising growth.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 50.6 in October. Although this reading still signalled an expansion in services activity during the month, it was below the mark of 52.2 in September.
Growth of new business eased during the month, leading companies to deplete backlogs of work, while staffing levels were reduced for the second month running.
09.26 There is a bit of PMI data out today, starting with Ireland. The country's services sector has seen the strongest rise in activity in five years (since October 2007), as new business increases sharply.
The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index – which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago – increased to 56.1 in October, from 53.9 in September, and signalled the sharpest monthly increase in activity in five years during October.
Activity has now risen in three successive months, with the latest expansion mainly linked by panellists to higher new business.
09.18 Over to Spain now, where the number of jobless rose for the third consecutive month, up by 2.7pc in October from a month earlier, leaving4.8m people out of work, according to data from the Labour Ministry.
08.44 Over to Cyprus, where the Island requested financial aid back in June and has been in talks with international lenders.
However, according to a report by Germany's intelligence agency (BND), the people that will benefit most from a bailout are on the island are Russian oligarchs and mafiosi.
According to weekly magazine Der Spiegel, which cites the report, Cyprus's request for a bailout has created a political headache for German Chancellor Angela Merkel on concerns wealthy Russians could be the chief beneficiaries.
The BND report on money laundering in Cyprus has laid bare the political risks involved, Spiegel said.
"The report of the BND shows who will profit most of all from the billions in European taxpayer funds - Russian oligarchs, businesspeople and mafiosi who have parked their illegal earnings in Cyprus," the magazine said.
Cyprus is a popular offshore tax haven for Russian businesses seeking protection from their country's unpredictable investment climate.
The BND report found that Russian nationals held some $26bn (£16.2bn) in Cypriot bank accounts, Spiegel said, dwarfing both the emergency aid the eurozone is likely to provide and the country's total national output of about €17bn.
Cypriot authorities do not provide a breakdown of bank deposits based on nationality, but Russians are believed to make up a large proportion of non-domiciled accounts.
08.30 Sticking with Britain, the Bank of England is expected to vote against increasing the size of its quantitative easing programme on Thursday. Angela Monaghan reports:
Bank of England policymakers are expected to vote against pumping more money into the economy this week as a think tank predicted growth in Britain will outpace that of any other major European economy in 2013 and 2014.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave quantitative easing unchanged at £375bn and interest rates on hold at 0.5pc on Thursday after the economy bounced back with 1pc growth in the third quarter.
Economists were previously forecasting a further £50bn injection of QE at the November policy meeting, but that view changed after the economy grew more strongly than expected between July and September, and the Bank’s deputy governor Charlie Bean questioned in a speech whether QE could boost growth in the current economic climate.

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