Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Harvey's blog for September 11th - data for the day for both gold and silver , as well as non redundant news items and articles of note....


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012/09/china-records-big-drop-in-oil.html

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2012


China records big drop in oil imports/Japanese Finance Minister commits suicide/More turmoil in South Africa Mines/ USA budgetary deficit rises 192 billion last month/USA trade deficit last month big at 42 billion dollars/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up today by $ 3.10 dollars closing the comex session at $1731.80
Silver however fell marginally by 6 cents to $33.51. We had a plethora of data to go over day.  First from Asia, China reported a huge drop in oil imports signaling that this nation is heading into a serious recession.
The from Japan, we heard that the Japanese Finance Minister, Matsushita committed suicide.  Something must be seriously wrong inside Japan.  As far as Europe is concerned we are marking time for tomorrow's big events:

i) the KKK results
ii) the Dutch election results.

In South Africa we are witnessing more strikes and more stoppage of mining production in both gold and platinum.  This should seriously lessen supplies and cause a rise in price.  The South African economy is now heading into turmoil.In the USA, we had two press releases

i) the deficit for last month soared to 192 billion usa.  We are on tap to break the projected 1.2 trillion deficit mark.
ii) the trade deficit came in at 42 billion dollars slightly less than projected due to lessening global demand.

we will discuss all of these topics but first....



Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading today.

The total gold comex OI fell by a very tiny margin of 176 contracts from 457,089 to 456,913.
We had a bit of a raid yesterday even though gold and silver held its own.  The bankers had trouble removing the gold leaves from the gold tree.  The non active September contract saw it's OI fall by 22 contracts from 71 to 49.  We had 23 notices filed yesterday so we actually gained one contract or 100 oz of additional gold is standing.  The next active delivery month if October and here the OI fell by 1739 contracts as these guys rolled into December.  The October OI stands tonight at 25,266.  The next big delivery month is December and here the OI rose by 1724 contracts from 307,902 to 309,626.  Our banker friends are keeping a close eye on the figure. The estimated volume at the gold comex today came in at a very low 105,989.  The confirmed volume yesterday was just a weak at 120,766.The total silver comex OI rose by 349 contracts from 120,271 to 120,620. The active September silver contract saw its OI fall by 158 contracts from 900 to 742.  We had only 3 delivery notices yesterday so we lost a huge 155 contracts to a probable cash settlement. The non active October contract saw it's OI fall by 232 contracts to 254.  The big December contract saw it's OI fall by 463 contracts, from 78,841 to 78,378 but remains very elevated.  The estimated volume today came in at a very weak 33,241. The confirmed volume yesterday was much stronger at 49,997.

*   *   * 

Activity was quite light today.

We had the following customer deposit:

i) 1003.50 oz into Brinks
ii) 59,867.441 into HSBC. (this 59 thousand oz seems to be kicking around continually at the comex)

total deposit: 60,542.591 oz

we had the following customer withdrawal from JPM:

i) 7006.941 (JPM)

we had one adjustment of 94.319 oz out of Brinks as a removal due to a counting error.

The total registered or dealer gold rests tonight at 2.521 million oz or 78.4 tonnes of gold.


The CME notified us that we had zero notices filed and thus the total number of notices remain at 701
or 70100 oz.  To obtain what is left to be filed upon, I take the OI standing for September (49) and subtract
out today's notices (zero) which leaves us with 49 or 4900 oz left to be served upon our longs.Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this non active delivery month of September is as follows:

70,100 oz (served)  +  4900 oz (to be served upon)  =  75,000 oz or 2.332 tonnes of gold.

and....

Activity was quite light in the silver vaults today.

We had the following customer deposit:

1)  1003.50 oz (into Brinks)

we had the following customer withdrawal from Brinks:

i) Out of Brinks:  1901.50 oz

we one one adjustment as an add on due to a counting error.  The addition was 897 oz added into Brinks.

The total dealer or registered inventory rests tonight at 38.041 million oz
The total of all silver rests at 140.678 million oz


The CME reported today that we had 23 notices filed for 115,000 oz.  The total number of notices
filed so far this month total 1016 for 5,080,000 oz.  To obtain what is left to be filed upon, I take the OI standing for Sept (742) and subtract out today's notices (23) which leaves us with 719 notices or 3,595,000 oz.

Thus the total number of silver oz standing in this active delivery month of  September is as follows:

5,080,000 oz (served)  +  3,595,000 oz (to be served upon)  =  8,675,000 oz. we lost 155 contracts or  775,000 oz silver standing.

*   *   * 

This morning from Europe we learn from  Goldcore that a   the huge 11.3 tonnes of gold import coupled with a huge 6.7 tonnes for silver were part of Turkey's imports.  Most of these imports are headed to Iran who are using the gold to purchase food and other supplies it desperately needs.


your key paragraph:

"It showed that Turkey’s gold imports were 11.3 metric tons last month alone. Silver imports were 6.7 tons, the data show. Much of these imports may be destined for Iran where imports have surged an astonishing 2,700% in just one year – from $21 million to $6.2 billion.
In the first seven months of this year, Turkey's exports to Iran have also skyrocketed to $8 billion, up from $2 billion in the same period last year. And it is widely believed that the major portion of the increase, which is $6 billion, stems from the export of gold."


(courtesy Goldcore)

Iran Gold Imports From Turkey Surge To $8 Billion YTD As Gold Increasingly Used As Currency

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2012 08:01 -0400



From GoldCore
Iran Gold Imports From Turkey Surge To $8 Billion YTD - $3.2 Billion Worth Of Bullion In Q2 2012

*   *   * 


Gold inched higher on Tuesday as investors await the German ruling on the eurozone’s bailout fund and a possible US Fed decision on QE3. There are expectations of a pullback by market participants, including clients, but what tends to happen after break outs like this is that gold continues to surprise to the upside and buyers only buy with conviction after gold is at record highs in dollar terms and again making some headlines. 
0800 GMT tomorrow is the German constitutional court decision as to whether Germany can contribute to the European Financial Stability Mechanism.  
The court has already rejected a last bid by Peter Gauweiler to delay the case (because of Draghi’s pledge of unlimited funds to buy government bonds) and its decision tomorrow is crucial to the future of the euro and the eurozone.
If Germany does not ratify the ESM treaty, the ESM and other bailout measures may be thrown into chaos leading to considerable market volatility tomorrow. A no vote would likely see a considerable increase in risk aversion.
Last week, Mario Draghi announced the ECB was ready to buy unlimited quantities of short-term government bonds of nations signed up to rescues from the ESM or the temporary European Financial Stability Facility it is designed to replace.

*   *   * 


Diversification into gold continues with gold holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold rose to a record for the fifth straight session. The amount increased 6.3 metric tons, or 0.3 percent, to 2,480.43 tons.
Credit Suisse and Unicredit have joined JP Morgan, Goldman, UBS, Bank of America and other banks in revising upwards their gold forecasts.
Gold will advance to $1,775 an ounce in three months and $1,850 in 12 months, Credit Suisse Group said in a report which was picked up by Bloomberg.
UniCredit sees gold returning to $1,900/oz an ounce towards the end of 2012. 
UBS increased its near term precious metals prices on “strong” likelihood of QE3, given the poor payrolls report. UBS raised the 1 and 3 month gold price estimate to $1850/oz from $1700. Silver to $37/oz from $32/oz and $35/oz respectively previously
Central bank demand internationally continues and demand for gold in the increasingly volatile Middle East remains robust as seen in data from the Istanbul Gold Exchange.
It showed that Turkey’s gold imports were 11.3 metric tons last month alone. Silver imports were 6.7 tons, the data show. Much of these imports may be destined for Iran where imports have surged an astonishing 2,700% in just one year – from $21 million to $6.2 billion.
In the first seven months of this year, Turkey's exports to Iran have also skyrocketed to $8 billion, up from $2 billion in the same period last year. And it is widely believed that the major portion of the increase, which is $6 billion, stems from the export of gold.
There is speculation that the Iranian central bank is buying gold and that they may be accepting gold in payment for oil and gas in order to bypass western sanctions.

Turkey is paying for the oil and natural gas it is importing from Iran in gold, Turkish opposition deputies have claimed, drawing attention to the enormous increase in Turkey's gold exports to Iran in 2012. 
“Gold is being used as an instrument for payment. Under the guise of exportation, gold is being sent to Iran in exchange for oil,” Sinan Aygün, a deputy from the Republican People's Party (CHP), has told Turkish daily Today's Zaman.
Iranian people, encouraged by the state are also buying large quantities of gold and saving in gold in order to protect against inflation and the devaluation of the Iranian real.
Turkey's total gold and precious stone exports have amounted in the first seven months of 2012 to nearly $8.9 billion, while the figure was only $1.8 billion in the same period last year.  Some $3.2 billion of Turkey’s $4.4 billion of gold sales to Iran in the first half of the year were in bullion form.
Iranians purchased $4.8 billion worth of gold in 2012's second quarter, up from roughly $1 billion in the first quarter of the year. 
Iran appears to be circumventing western sanctions in this way.
The rise marks the continuation of a gold buying spree that saw sales in the first half of 2012 grow more than eight fold over the first half of 2011.
The US is said to be uneasy about Iran's skyrocketing purchases of Turkey's gold and has been following the sales closely.
There are rumours that Iranians purchase Turkish gold via third parties in order not to be noticed and that they entrust the purchased gold to the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), again via third parties. 
The Central Bank of Iran supports the purchases to order to create an “economy of resistance” in the face of increasing sanctions from Western countries.
Iranians have turned to gold as a method of saving in the face of tightening Western sanctions.
People, companies and banks in Iran are buying gold as a safe haven against months of sanctions induced currency devaluation.
This trend looks set to continue and may even intensify if Israel attacks Iran in the coming months.


and.....


South African Miners "Playing Dangerous Game" As Tensions Rise Again

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2012 15:19 -0400




While it appears the mainstream media has forgotten about the ongoing drama in South Africa, the tensions are rising rather dramatically around the Marikana mines (owned by LonMin mining). As Al Jazeera reports, thousands of miners (along with wives and supporters) have defied an extended deadline (brokered by the government) and decide to remain on strike. The following clip provides some rather concerning color on what is occurring as Julius Malema, the expelled ANC leader, has already been charged with inciting violence - and is "playing a rather dangerous game." He is calling for a national strike as he addresses the people: "they have been stealing this gold from you. Now it is your turn, you want your piece of the gold." The tough reality is that as extraction costs rise (energy/depth) and now miners' costs rise, then the end-product's cost must rise, or - as Melema suggests - supply goes offline. 

and....


Lagarde Lying?

Bruce Krasting's picture
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 09/11/2012 12:23 -0400





The boss of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, has been talking the past few days. She said some things that I thought were interesting.

A few weeks ago, the ECB’s Mario Draghi laid out his plan to buy unlimited amounts of bonds of Spain and Italy in a desperate attempt to stabilize the European bond markets. In order to placate German criticism of the bailout, Draghi made it clear that there would be stiff “conditionality” that must be accepted by Spain and Italy before any bond buying is commenced. To give teeth to the promise of conditionality, Draghi was very specific that both Spain and Italy would have to accept an IMF involvement in the internal affairs of the countries involved. Mario said:

"The involvement of the IMF shall be sought also for the design of country-specific conditionality and the monitoring of such programs."

Lagarde has responded to Draghi’s proposal with her full support(Link):


According to Christine, the IMF is ready to roll up its sleeves and get down to work “fixing” Spain and Italy’s financial affairs:

"The IMF would be an active player in restoring the situation in the euro zone."

"We obviously have to do it under our normal framework, which implies conditionalities."

"The IMF is ready to get involved in designingand monitoring its implementation."

Think about the implications of this. The IMF is going to set up a “mission” in Rome and Madrid. There will be hundreds of IMF technocrats running around insisting that the countries bend over backward and accept the severe austerity measures that always come with an IMF bailout.

To the people of Spain I say:

Don’t let this woman in your country! She will make your life miserable. You will loose your financial destiny the day she arrives. Your unemployment rate will rise, your economy will suffer. Your political leaders will have given up the authority to rule on critical issues. You will become a ward of the IMF state.

Don’t believe me? Then please ask other Spanish speaking countries what they think of the IMF. Ask Mexico, Chile or Argentina if they hate the IMF. They do.

To the people of Italy I say:

I can’t believe you would allow this to happen! Your country is not bankrupt; you do not need to become a slave of the IMF. Your fellow countryman, Mario Draghi, has put you in a vice. Now you must come begging to him on your knees for help. While you are on your knees begging, you must accept that Christine Lagarde comes into your country and tells you what you can and can’t do.

I urge you to talk with the people of Brazil. They have been under the thumb of the IMF. They hated it. So will you.

Of course Ms. Lagarde is a political hack that plays to two audiences at once. She also had this to say about Italy and Spain:







IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said large, debt-strapped euro zone countries Spain and Italy had taken enough action to merit aid.
Already "taken enough action" you say, Ms. Lagarde? Are you saying that no more reforms are needed? That Italy and Spain don’t have to bite the bullet? Does this mean that the promise of “conditionality” has no substance? It sure sounds like it.

To the people of Germany I say:

The involvement of the IMF in the affairs of Spain and Italy is the only protection that you have. Lagarde has said that nothing more needs to be done to allow them to borrow freely, at cheap rates, and from your country’s Treasury vault!

If there is no conditionality, then you are about to write an enormous check. It will be measured in the Trillions of Euros once the floodgates are open. The wealth of your country is about to head south.

Do you really want this to happen?

Which is it Ms. Lagarde? You can’t have it both ways, and there is no compromise in the middle. Either there is meaningful conditionality, or there is not. Are you lying to the people in Spain and Italy? Or are you lying to the citizens of Germany? Is it possible you are lying to all of the countries involved?

and....


The Japanese Finance Minister committed suicide 16 hours ago:

(courtesy  AFP)



Japan finance services minister dead: Reports



This picture taken on June 4, 2012 shows Japanese Financial Service Minister Tadahiro Matsushita speaking at the prime minister's official residence after he was named as the minister. Japan's financial services minister Matsushita was found dead at his home on Sept 10, 2012 in what police believe was a possible suicide, media said. -- PHOTO: AFP


TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's financial services minister was found dead at his home on Monday in what police believe was a possible suicide, media said.
Mr Tadahiro Matsushita, 73, who was also the state minister in charge of postal reform for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, was found collapsed at his house in Tokyo and confirmed dead at hospital shortly afterwards, public broadcaster NHK said.
Kyodo News and Jiji Press, citing police sources, reported that Matsushita was thought to have taken his own life. "I am very shocked at the tragic news," Mr Noda told reporters, quoted by Jiji. "I don't know what to say." Mr Matsushita was first elected to a lower house seat in 1993 through the Liberal Democratic Party.
But his opposition to postal privatisation, pushed by then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, forced him out of the LDP to join the People's New Party, now Mr Noda's junior coalition partner. He was appointed to the post of financial services minister and state minister in charge of supervising the postal privatisation in June.

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