Sunday, July 29, 2012

Greece continues to be yanked up and down like a yo yo - will the Troika " kick the can down the road one last time " , where does the IMF and US really stand regarding Greece , what about Germany - where do they stand ? As we head into the last days of July and Europe prepares to vacation in August - September will be a critical timeframe as that's where the rubber meets the road for major short term issues in Europe !


http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/07/29/greece-exclusive-geithner-envoy-assured-athens-of-us-support-on-return-to-drachma-sources/


GREECE EXCLUSIVE: Geithner envoy ‘assured Athens of US support on return to drachma’ – sources

Meanwhile, the EFSF robs Petros to pay Pavlos
The US Treasury’s Assistant Secretary for International Finance Charles Collyns had a meeting with Greek Finance Minister Yiannis Stournaras in Athens on Wednesday morning. The official Greek media version was that Collyns ‘expressed the support of US-Finance Secretary Tomothy Geithner to Greece and his confidence in Greek efforts. Yinannis Stournas briefed Collyns on the situation of the Greek fiscal condition, and the key challenges of the Greek economy’.
In fact, Washington sources told The Slog last night BST that Collyns – a confidante of both Geithner and Stournas – was on a specific mission to impress on Greek Finance bosses the US Treasury’s sincerity in offering Greece “almost unqualified support in the event of a return to the drachma”. The White House is betting on the strong likelihood of Greece becoming formally insolvent before any more bailout monies are available from Berlin-am-Brussels.
Charles Collyns is uniquely placed to deliver the message credibly to the Athens government: he was at the IMF for many years, and is a personal friend of Geithner going back a long way;  but significantly, he is also an old classmate and close friend of Yiannis Stournaras himself.
As The Slog reported earlier his year  US Government covertly attempted to isolate Greece from the eurozone last March, in a bid to both make the country an important and loyal base for military intervention against enemies in the region, and itself play a beneficial role in the exploitation of Greece’s energy and mineral assets under the Aegean ocean. This move shows that the Obama White House remains determined to follow this course of action. A number of informed sources in Europe believe that the Greeks have had all the EFSF monies they’re going to get. On that basis, they would probably default on or around August 20th.
One day soon – allegedly – that EFSF will become the ESM. But it’s becoming increasingly hard to see how future bailouts are going to work given the likely contributors to the fund. As Yanis Varoufakis noted on his blog yesterday, on August 20th Greece is due to borrow €3.2 bn from the EFSF, in order to pay back the ECB. This idea is potty enough, but are we now to believe that Spain can cough up €600m for Greece, while borrowing another €3bn for itself?
That the whole ball of wool is unravelling could not be clearer given examples like these. Yanis Varoufikas urges Greece not to borrow the next tranche. I think he’s farting against thunder on that one. But as the American moves suggest, the money may well not be forthcoming anyway.
and.....

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/11/57322


Troika staying until measures are finalised
29 Jul 2012
The initial itinerary would have delayed the release of the bailout payment to Greece, thus prompting the change (file photo)
The initial itinerary would have delayed the release of the bailout payment to Greece, thus prompting the change (file photo)

The European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) troika will stay in Greece until a credible package of measures is drafted, in collaboration with the Greek government, IMF delegation chief Poul Thomsen told finance minister Yannis Stournaras.
Ministry sources said Thomsen informed the minister on this change of plans during a working dinner on Friday.
The same sources said that the atmosphere at the dinner was "exceptionally good" and marked a change in the attitude so far of the representatives of Greece's creditors', with Thomsen cited as telling Stournaras that "we want to help and will stay as long as needed for you to prepare the package".
According to the initial itinerary, the troika was to depart Greece at end of July and return at the end of August, to see the progress made in the package of measures to cut state spending by 11.5 billion euros over the next two years and in the execution of this year's budget.
However, such a timetable would have resulted in a large delay in the disbursement of the outstanding tranche of the bailout loan to Greece.
Stournaras will meet with the representatives of the three parties supporting Greece's new coalition government in order to finalize the measures still outstanding for the 11.5 euros package, which will be put to a meeting of the three party leaders on Monday afternoon. (AMNA)


but then consider Germany's perspective.....

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/57318


Schaeuble sees no room for Greek concessions
29 Jul 2012
Schaeuble said that the true question was if Greece could find a plausible way to handle its problems (file photo)
Schaeuble said that the true question was if Greece could find a plausible way to handle its problems (file photo)

No further concessions can be made to Greece, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Sunday, amid widespread concern that Greece is way off meeting its bailout conditions.
The current bailout plan for Greece was already "very accommodating", he told Germany's Welt am Sonntag newspaper on Sunday.
Inspectors from the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are visiting Greece to decide whether to keep it hooked up to a 130-billion-euro lifeline.
"I cannot see that there is any room left for further concessions," Schaeuble said. "The problem did not arise because the programme had faults, but rather because Greece did not implement it fully enough," he said.
He added it was not helpful now to speculate about giving Greece more time or more money.
"It is not a question of generosity. The question is rather, is there plausible way for Greece to manage this."
He also ruled out a further debt writedown for Greece, when asked whether interest could be waived on euro zone bail out loans to Greece or the European Central Bank could waive interest on its Greek debt holdings.
"We have just pushed through a large debt writedown of more than 50 percent with private creditors. I campaigned more for this than many others, and the central bank is independent," he said.
Asked whether the German state development bank (KfW) could take a writedown on its loans to Greece, Schaeuble said, "The largest German creditor at the first writedown was the state bad bank. We have already participated. It makes no sense to make such a move every half a year. It only destroys trust."
Last September the bad bank of nationalised mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate pledged to roll over almost 1 billion euros of Greek debt, making it the first German institute to quantify its commitment to a second bailout of Athens.
Schaeuble slammed those, including politicians within Germany's centre-right coalition, who have spoken openly about a possible Greek exit from the euro.
If you want to restore calm on markets then you should not "feed them with speculation." (Reuters)

and note Merkel's poll numbers falling.....

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/german-support-merkels-crisis-handling-erodes-poll-162431560.html


BERLIN (Reuters) - Only one third of Germans still believe Angela Merkel is making the right decisions over the euro zone debt crisis, according to a survey published on Sunday, pointing to a steep erosion in domestic support for the chancellor over the last weeks.
The survey by YouGov, due to be printed in Monday's edition of Bild newspaper, found 33 percent in favor of her stance but 48 percent against, a setback for the chancellor who is to seek a third term in a 2013 federal election, which she has vowed to make a vote on Europe.
Asked in the survey whether they feared for their savings, 44 percent of Germans said that they did.
In mid-July, a poll by ZDF-Politbarometer showed 63 percent of Germans backed Merkel's handling of the crisis, although a majority thought she should explain her policies better.
Another poll at the start of July by Infratest-ARD put support for Merkel's crisis policies at 58 percent, although 85 percent of those polled also expected the crisis to get worse.
Merkel's tough stance on the crisis and demands for austerity in exchange for aid have seen her demonized across Europe, but earnt her popularity at home.
The euro zone entered a threatening new phase in the last weeks, however, as concern rose Greece would be unable to meet its bailout conditions and Spanish and Italian assets came under renewed market attack, stirring fears about the rising cost of Europe's debt crisis for German tax payers.
Last week Moody's Investors Service changed its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable as Germany might have to increase its support for troubled states.


and...



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/07/foreigners-dump-nearly-80-billion-in.html


Sunday, July 29, 2012 11:13 AM


Foreigners Dump Nearly €80 Billion in Spanish Debt; Haircuts Come After More Dumping


Through the first half of the year, foreigners reduced Spanish debt by Nearly €80 Billion as banks in Spain gobbled up more of the toxic garbage.
 Foreign investment in Spanish public debt has decreased by  €78.168 billion in the first six months of the year, standing at  €203.271 billion euros, compared to  €281.439 billion which reached the end of 2011. This is a break of 27.7% over last year.

The largest decreases were recorded in February and March, at nearly €25 billion each month.

Analysts note that Spanish financial institutions that are supporting strongly the Treasury issues and thus raising their level of debt thanks to interventions by the ECB.
Contrary to popular belief, the LTRO and other ECB financing programs that allowed Spain to accumulate more Spanish bonds is not a favor to Greece but rather a favor to foreigners who are now unloading the debt.


Just as happened with Greece, as soon as foreigners dump enough Spanish debt, haircuts on the bonds will come.


and.....

http://soberlook.com/2012/07/esm-armed-with-banking-license-ultimate.html





SATURDAY, JULY 28, 2012


ESM armed with a banking license - the ultimate bailout "bazooka"



Should the ESM, the Eurozone's permanent bailout facility, be granted a banking license? Apparently some within the ECB believe that it should.
Bloomberg: - European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny said there are arguments in favor of giving Europe’s rescue fund a banking license, reviving the debate on bolstering its firepower as leaders face the prospect of a full-scale Spanish bailout.


“I think there are pro arguments for this,” Nowotny, who heads Austria’s central bank, said in an interview in his office in Vienna yesterday. “There are also other arguments, but I would see this as an ongoing discussion,” he said, adding he’s “not aware of specific discussions within the ECB at this point.”
It's a powerful concept because being a bank, the ESM could tap the ECB's unlimited lending facilities to leverage its holdings of sovereign paper. By granting the ESM a banking license, it can effectively buy Spanish and Italian bonds "on margin", with the ECB being the margin provider. This entity would wield buying power several times larger than the Eurozone's original ESM commitment, making it the ultimate bailout "bazooka".

So far Mario Draghi had not been supportive of the idea - at least officially.
Bloomberg: - ...ECB President Mario Draghi said on May 24 that such a move amounts to the central bank financing governments, which is prohibited by European Union law...
The issue of EU laws is a major one, but it's not without a precedent. As the Bloomberg article points out, "publicly-owned credit institutions such as the European Investment Bank (EIB) are exempt". In fact the EIB has been involved in buying government debt of Eurozone nations for some time, even ending up stuck with some Greek bonds (see this post).
Bloomberg: - The EIB, which was founded in 1958 and is owned by the member states of the EU, was granted access to ECB refinancing in July 2009. Nowotny said the fact that the ESM has missed a July deadline to become operational is a “weakness that has to be overcome.”
However there is a political problem with this scenario. The ESM now has a €500bn cap on total debt purchases. That means no matter what leverage is available to the entity, it can only purchase bonds of up to the amount of the cap. An increase in its buying power would require (among other things) Germany's approval. And with the elections coming up in Germany next year, the chances of German politicians agreeing to this increase are quite low.
Barclays Capital: - From a political perspective and in view of the German national elections scheduled for September 2013, we do not see much of a chance that the German government would agree to another increase in the ceiling until then, or to more fundamental changes implying the mutualisation of national, public debt. This constraint may be relaxed if the crisis picks up pace rapidly and moves into the core.
Nevertheless the rumors of the ESM being armed with a banking license are flying (and even moving the "risk" markets on Friday).
CNBC: - Reports (vague rumors) that ECB head Mario Draghi may have reached out to Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann moved the Dow more than a hundred points in the middle of Friday's trading day. 
It certainly wouldn't be surprising that they talk, but the rumor mill threw in a rich tidbit: that they had discussed giving the EU's permanent bailout fund (the ESM) a banking license.
The danger of course is that after this buildup, the "bazooka" and other expectations from the Eurozone may not materialize. Without a decisive follow-through, the "risk" markets may retrace their recent gains and then some. After all when it comes to the Eurozone crisis, the EU leadership has a knack of over-promising and under-delivering.

and....


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9436348/Only-Mario-Draghis-ECB-can-avert-global-calamity-before-the-year-is-out.html


We are beyond the point where a quarter point rate cut will achieve anything. Nor will it help to launch a fresh round of "temporary and limited" bond purchases - to use the self-defeating language that Mr Draghi is forced to utter.
The only issue that matters at this late stage is whether Germany is willing to let the ECB step up to its responsibility as a global central bank after two years of ideological posturing and take all risk of sovereign default in Spain and Italy off the table - which it can do easily enough once it stops playing politics and obeys the “financial stability” clause (Article 127) of the Lisbon Treaty.
That is to say, whether Latin states are willing to mobilize their majority power on the ECB’s council to force a change in policy over German protest, or lamely let themselves be picked off one by one in serial disasters like the death of the Gold Standard in 1931.


Failure to halt a full-blown debt debacle in Spain and Italy at this delicate juncture - with China, India and Brazil by now in the grip of a broken credit cycle and the US on the cusp of fresh recession even before the “fiscal cliff” hits - would tip the entire global system into a downward spin, triggering the sort of feedback loop that caused such havoc in late 2008.
As the International Monetary Fund warns in its Article IV report, “the euro area crisis has reached a new and critical stage … raising questions about the viability of the monetary union itself. The adverse links between sovereigns, banks, and the real economy are stronger than ever.”





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-crunchtime-europe-and-germany


September: Crunchtime For Europe And Germany

Tyler Durden's picture





"September will undoubtedly be the crunch time," one senior euro zone policymaker said. "In nearly 20 years of dealing with EU issues, I've never known a state of affairs like we are in now," one euro zone diplomat said this week. "It really is a very, very difficult fix and it's far from certain that we'll be able to find the right way out of it."

As Europe's fight with the twin demons of logic and math continues, time is running out. And as eurocrats take their mandatory vacations for a job well done and spend the next two weeks lounging on some Mediterranean island or listening to opera, Europe will enter hibernation mode, courtesy of a slow down in sovereign bond issuance, all of which however will change very quickly once September rolls in which as Reuters describes, "is shaping up as a "make-or-break" month as policymakers run desperately short of options to save the common currency." It is then that we will find if all that money spent on newsletter promoting active prayer to push the hands of central planners in that direction or the other, was well spent, or just thrown in the same cash black hole which is the final restring place for hundreds of billions in "bailout money" which has achieved nothing but perpetuating the same destructive behavior that it was meant to change.

Reuters explains why September will also be known as the popcorn month:

In that month a German court makes a ruling that could neuter the new euro zone rescue fund, the anti-bailout Dutch vote in elections just as Greece tries to renegotiate its financial lifeline, and decisions need to be made on whether taxpayers suffer huge losses on state loans to Athens.



On top of that, the euro zone has to figure out how to help its next wobbling dominoes, Spain and Italy - or what do if one or both were to topple.



Since the crisis erupted in January 2010, the euro zone has had to rescue relative minnows in Greece, Ireland and Portugal as they lost the ability to fund their budget deficits and debt obligations by borrowing commercially at affordable rates.

Now two much larger economies are in the firing line and policymakers must consider ever more radical solutions.
Following a year of real-time failed rumor, innuendo, speculation, prepackaged 'bankruptcy that is not a bankruptcy' negotiations, and much more, Europe has figured out what was patently obvious to everyone. This:
In Reuters' own words, the life raft is about to go pop:
The euro zone does not seem to have enough cash in the current setup to deal with a scenario of Spain and Italy needing a rescue, and a sense of doom is growing among some policymakers. Fighting the crisis, said the euro zone diplomat, is like trying to keep a life raft above water.

"For two years we've been pumping up the life raft, taking decisions that fill it with just enough air to keep it afloat even though it has a leak," the diplomat said. "But now the leak has got so big that we can't pump air into the raft quickly enough to keep it afloat."
Two bailouts in, and one bankruptcy, and Greece is fixed. Not
Compounding the problems, Greece is far behind with reforms to improve its finances and economy so it may need more time, more money and a debt reduction from euro zone governments.
If Greek debt cannot be made sustainable, the country may have to leave the euro zone, sending a shockwave across financial markets and the European economy.

Athens wants two more years than originally planned to cut its budget deficit to below 3 percent of GDP, so as not to impose yet more spending cuts on a country which is already in a depression.

This would mean Greece's 130 billion euro second bailout package may need to be increased by 20-50 billion euros, according to estimates by some euro zone officials and economists, and there is no appetite in the euro zone to give Greece yet more extra money.

More importantly Greece needs to bring its debt, which is equal to 160 percent of its annual economic output, under control. This means euro zone governments, which own roughly two thirds of it, may need to write part of it off.
Private creditors have already suffered a huge writedown in the value of their Greek debt holdings but so far euro zone taxpayers have not lost a cent on any of the bailouts.
So if Greece "agrees" to more austerity, how long until the rioting paralyzes the economy again, and a new government is elected, one in which Syriza has absolute majority, and the entire June fiasco with Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone out of its own volition is replayed? Not too long it seems. Especially since Schauble, who this weekend has perfected the art of throwing water in people's faces, just said there will be no more concessions.
But Greece is, once again, just the beginning.
Sept. 12 is a crucial date in the European diary. On that day the German Constitutional Court is scheduled to rule on whether a treaty establishing the euro zone's permanent bailout fund, the 500 billion euro European Stability Mechanism (ESM), is compatible with the German constitution.
A positive ruling is vital, because Germany is the biggest funder of the ESM, and the euro zone would be powerless to protect Spain or Italy without the ESM.

On the same day, parliamentary elections are held in the Netherlands where popular opposition to spending any more money on bailing out spendthrift euro zone governments is strong. The Dutch vote may complicate talks on a revised second bailout for Greece, which also has to be agreed in September.
Is a ECB impairment next in the cards? And if indeed Draghi takes a haircut on his Greek holdings, how long until he has to do the same with Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy? And how long until the EUR is currency only by decree, when even the blindest of the blind realize that the ECB's balance sheet has a massive capital shortfall, that can only be held together by more printing, something which Germany will hardly be delighted by:
Policymakers are working on "last chance" options to bring Greece's debts down and keep it in the euro zone, with the ECB and national central banks looking at also taking significant losses on the value of their bond holdings, officials said.

If governments swallowed the bitter pill by also accepting a cut in the value of their contributions to loans already made to Greece, this would break a taboo and could provoke demands for similar treatment from Ireland or Portugal.

Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING bank, said euro governments might be forced to accept a halving of the value of their Greek debt - known in the business as haircut.
"If Greece is to be saved, we must see some debt forgiveness from euro zone governments in the coming years because otherwise Greece is never going to come out of the situation it is in now," he said. "We are talking about potentially a 50 percent haircut, which would still mean the Greek debt would be (proportionately) around the euro zone average."

The euro zone would want concessions from Athens. "Most probably in exchange, euro zone partners will be more strict on Greek compliance with structural reforms and may ask Greece to give up some sovereignty," said Vanden Houte.
In the grand scheme of things, we wonder what is more realistic: Greece handing over the keys to the kingdom to a Belgian, or the ECB getting senior bondholder concessions out of insolvent banks. Frankly, neither. At least not until iTraxx Crossover is over 1000 bps: aka - peak despair.
And then there is Spain and Italy, and the fact that the ESM is insufficient (not to mention still inactive), and the ECB will need to step in. Hope that it would do so, is what sent the market soaring last week. Yesterday, however, Germany made it all too clear that Draghi had made a deal without the devil, and that attempts to bluff Germany into a "certain" outcome just won't fly.
ECB President Mario Draghi signalled last Thursday the bank was ready to act, indicating it may revive its programme of buying bonds of troubled governments on the secondary market.

"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough," Draghi said. "To the extent that the size of the sovereign premia (borrowing costs) hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels, they come within our mandate."
However, Germany has always been hostile to the idea and the Bundesbank said on Friday that it continued to view it "in a critical fashion".

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dismissed suggestions Spain will ask the bailout fund to try to lower its borrowing costs by purchasing its bonds.

Spain faces high borrowing costs because investors fear they will not get their money back. The Spanish economy is shrinking, many of its autonomous regions need bailouts from Madrid and banks need the recapitalisation of up to 100 billion euros.
Which, in turn, leaves out those who just bought Spanish bonds, because hope and prayer are a strategy (and remember: Lehman will never fail), out in the cold:
Madrid still has to raise about 50 billion euros on the market by the end of the year. This may be impossible if its funding costs stay well above 7 percent for 10-year bonds.

Draghi's remarks knocked yields down by more than 40 basis points to below 7 percent on Thursday, but they could quickly climb back if the market does not see firm ECB buying soon.
All this, and much more, is finally coming to a head, as the time for can kicking with hollow promises and words without action is coming to an end: just more than one month from now is when Europe will have to put up or shut up. And we will truly find out how much of a misnomer the "European Union" truly is.
Finally, for those who enjoy a granular walk through for what is in store for Europe, here it is courtesy of Deutsche Bank.
July
  • 30 July: Italy auction. Bonds.
August:
  • 1 August: Monti meets Finnish PM.Italian PM Monti is due to meet his Finnish counterpart in Helsinki.
  • 2 August: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 2 August: ECB Governing Council meeting. Our expectation is that 2 August is likely to be an occasion for non-standard (“quantity”) monetary policies. Standard (“price”) monetary policy, or the level of policy rates, we suspect will take a backseat this month. A monetary policy “price” response would in any case be more effective after a “quantity” response given the current impairments of the monetary transmission mechanism. We expect a further 25bp refi rate cut at the September meeting. We suspect the deposit rate will remain at zero for now. See “Eurostress” in this issue of Focus Europe.
  • 7 August: Italian Q2 GDP flash estimate. A weak figure would reignite the ‘austerity versus growth’ debate (DB forecast –1.0% qoq).
  • 13 August: Italy auction. Bills
  • 14 August: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 14 August: Euro area Q2 GDP flash estimate, from Eurostat.
  • Mid-August: French Constitutional Court/Fiscal Compact. In Mid-August the French Constitutional Court is due to rule whether  the Fiscal Compact, which euro area countries are due to endorse by the start of 2013, needs to be ratified into the French Constitution. If so, a joint vote by the French Assembly would be required. Signals are that this would happen in September if required. See accompanying article on France in this issue of Focus Europe.
  • 16 August: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 20 August: Greek bond redemption. Greece is due to repay EUR3.1bn of GGBs. Following the PSI, these would be GGBs owned  by the ECB and EIB. While agreement on how to reconfigure the second loan programme is unlikely before September, it is unlikely the EU will hold-out from paying funds to Greece to repay the ECB/EIB. In a consolidated sense, the official sector’s exposure to Greece remains the same, but the creditor changes (to the EFSF). Alternatively, Greece could issue T-bills and the  Greek banks could absorb them with the assistance of ELA from the Greek central bank.
  • 21 August: Spain auction. Bills
  • 28 August: Spain auction. Bills
  • 28 August: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 29 August: Italy auction. Bills
  • 30 August: Italy auction. Bonds
  • End-August: DBRS rating on Spain/Ireland. By the end of August, the DBRS ratings agency is due to have concluded its review  of Spanish and Irish sovereign ratings.
September:
  • SeptemberMoody’s due to conclude review of Spanish sovereign rating. Logically Moody's should wait until there is clarity on  direct recap before making a decision on Spain’s rating. Since governments have not made progress fleshing out a direct recapitalisation facility — indeed, have created some ambiguity as to whether it will be non-recourse — there is a distinct risk that Moody's, in another move to be “ahead of the curve”, decides to downgrade Spain within the next 3 months. Moody’s currently rates Spain Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating.
  • SeptemberDetailed bottom-up Spanish bank stress tests due for publication.
  • 6 SeptemberSpain auction. Bonds
  • 6 SeptemberECB Governing Council meeting. If we are right about the outcome of the 2 August ECB meeting (dominated by “quantity” measures), we suspect that revisions to staff forecasts for growth and inflation are likely to be a basis for a 25bp rate  cut.
  • 11 SeptemberGreece auction. Bills
  • 12 SeptemberGerman Constitutional Court ESM ruling. The German Constitutional Court is to rule on the complaints lodged  against the ESM and fiscal compact. The chances of the ESM being vetoed are low. However, the Court might again strengthen the German Parliament’s prerogatives as regards future European integration (see Focus Germany, 20 July). Germany is the last approval needed for the ESM to come into effect. Then the first instalment of the capital has to be paid by the ESM members  within 15 days of the ESM treaty entering into force. There are three other countries where Constitutional Court queries are outstanding — France, Austria and Ireland. France’s Constitutional Court will be deciding by mid-August. Neither Austria (which  may take another 3-6 months) nor Ireland are large enough to hold back the ESM — the ESM will come into force when countries representing 90% of the subscribed capital have approved it. Both Germany and France have an effective veto power in that case.
  • 12 SeptemberDutch Election. In April, the VVD/CDA minority government failed when Geert Wilders' PVV party withdrew its  support amid negotiations for the 2013 austerity budget. A crisis was averted when three smaller parties came forward to give support to a budget, but an early election was unavoidable. Domestic austerity and European crisis issues will likely play  important roles in the election. Compared to the configuration of parliament at the October 2010 election, the latest opinion polls (Maurice de Hond) show PM Rutte's VVD liberal party vying with the Socialist Party for the dominant party position. Both would  gain 31 seats in the 150 seat parliament on the latest polls. This is an unchanged position for VVD, but a doubling of SP seats. SP are gaining at the expense of all other parties except VVD and neo-liberal D66. This may reflect a backlash against the  austerity for 2013 which has broad party political support. SP have also taken a stance against euro rescue initiatives, voting against the ESM alongside the PVV and extracting a pledge from Dutch FinMin De Jager that parliament will vote on any future  direct bank recapitalisation disbursements. Given the typical distribution of the vote among several parties, the questions are  what coalition emerges from this election, how long it takes to form a government and what policies will it support? Markets in particular will be watching the ramifications for domestic fiscal policy (the 2013 Budget is a week after the election) and euro  rescue initiatives.
  • 12 SeptemberItaly auction. Bills
  • 13-14 SeptemberG20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting. In Mexico.
  • 13 SeptemberItaly auction. Bonds
  • 14 SeptemberECOFIN meeting. This is very likely the finance ministers meeting when adjustments to Greece's second loan programme will be considered. The remaining EUR23bn recapitalisation of the Greek banks is due to complete by the end of September, assuming a positive review of the loan programme. This is also when finance ministers should have their first discussion on the proposals for a common bank supervisory regime under the ECB. Any delays, with knock-on delays for a direct bank recapitalisation mechanism, will disappoint the market. Options for a reconsideration of Ireland’s legacy bank bailout policies may also be discussed (decision not due until October ECOFIN meeting).
  • 15 SeptemberEurogroup meeting.Coinciding
  • 18 September: Greece auction. Bills
  • 18 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 20 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 25 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 25 September: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 26 September: Italy auction. Bills
  • 27 September: Italy auction. Bonds








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