Syria update - Well , has the West finally gotten a response from Assad that justifies use of force against Syria ? Definitely a story to wath this weekend and how Turkey choses to play the hand dealt here will be the key !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-does-syria-want-war

Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2012 10:42 -0400

• Guest Post
 
• Middle East
 
• Turkey

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Does Syria Want A War?

We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable enough to admit it.

The AP reports:

Syria said Friday it shot down a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian air space, and Turkey vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response.

It was the most clear and dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, which used to be allies before the Syrian revolt began in March 2011. Turkey has become one of the strongest critics of the Syrian regime’s brutal response to the country’s uprising.

Late Friday, Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, said the military spotted an “unidentified aerial target” that was flying at a low altitude and at a high speed.

“The Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly,” SANA said. “The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian airspace and was dealt with according to laws observed in such cases.”

It seems pretty clear that the Syrians know the consequences of their actions. NATO (including deluded US hawks who are happy to ignore the disastrous consequences of the drug war on the US border while talking up more intervention in the middle east) and the NATO-backed Syrian opposition has been looking for any excuse to get stuck into a new interventionist mission. We know that the NATO-backed opposition were prepared to try and get a British journalist killed in a false flag operation in order to trigger a Western intervention.

So why did Russia-armed Syria do it? And why (given the age of F-4 aircraft, it could easily have crashed of its own accord giving the Syrians a lot of plausible deniability) are they not at least denying that they shot it down?

Is it possible that the wider Eurasian anti-American coalition led by the Russians and the Chinese are confident that NATO will not intervene out of fear of triggering a wider war? After all the Russian naval base has been a great obstacle to NATO intervention. Libya didn’t have any Russian bases, and it took far less internal violence for NATO to intervene there.

Is it even possible that the Eurasians are trying to provoke NATO into another costly and damaging war? After all, the American Empire is much more indebted and militarily overstretched than it was before 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success. Could the Eurasians be trying to provoke a regional war in order to weaken NATO and draw attention away from  their own weakened economic picture?

Or is this just a case of an overzealous Syrian military commander taking a potshot at an unidentified flying object and provoking a diplomatic crisis?

As someone who does not believe that war is in any way an economic stimulus and should be avoided beyond self-preservation, I hope that this crisis — and the wider Syrian situation — can be defused.

Those who want to see a big military-Keynesian stimulus may be hoping for an escalation…

and.....



http://www.debka.com/article/22112/Newly-supplied-Russian-Buk-M2-anti-air-missile-used-to-down-Turkish-warplane

Newly-supplied Russian Buk-M2 anti-air missile used to down Turkish warplane

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 23, 2012, 12:55 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Turkey   Syria   Air force   Russian missiles   NATO 

Russian Buk-M2 air defense missile in Syria

To ambush the Turkish Air Force F-4 Super Phantom Friday June 22, over Latakia, Syria used Russian-made self-propelled medium range anti-air Buk-M2 missiles (NATO codenamed SA-11) recently supplied by Moscow. The SA-11 can down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 14 kilometers and Mach 3 speed.
Since the sophisticated weapons were delivered to the Assad regime in recent weeks, it must be assumed that local missile crews had not finished training in their use and would have had to rely on help from their Russian instructors to fire one.
This would be the first instance in the 15-month Syrian uprising of an advanced Russian-supplied weapon hitting the military target of a NATO member. Hence the comment from Washington by US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland who said: “We’ve seen the reports… We have obviously been in contact with our Turkish ally…. To my knowledge, they haven’t raised this at NATO at this point.”
Ankara has repeatedly threatened to ask NATO to invoke the pact’s article 5 obligating members to come to the aid of a fellow member coming under attack. In this case, however, the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric was relatively restrained. He vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response “once the incident is fully clarified,” leaving Ankara’s response deliberately vague.
President Abdullah Gul spoke out more strongly: “It is impossible to ignore our fighter jet being shot down by Syria,” he said after Damascus admitted to shooting down the plane, claiming its air defenses acted according to standard procedure before realizing it was a Turkish air force jet. Both are searching for the two missing pilots.
DEBKAfile’s military experts add: This was also the first time in five years any weapons system with Israeli manufacturing input had faced a Russian weapon acquired by Syria.
The first time was September 6, 2007, when Israeli fighter-bombers demolished the Iranian-North Korean-built nuclear reactor in the northern Syrian town of Al-Kibar. Airspace over the reactor was guarded by Russian Pantsyr-S1 anti-air missiles capable of reaching aircraft flying at altitudes of up 12 kilometers as well as cruise missiles.  Israeli bombers got through by disabling the Russian missiles’ radar so that Damascus never realized its reactor was being bombed until it had been smashed and Israeli bombers were home.

Five years later, Turkey lost a Super Phantom which had undergone partial upgrading by the Israeli Aerospace Industry. However, two years ago, Ankara broke off its security and military ties with Jerusalem after a clash at sea between Turkish Mavi Marmara and Israel troops wich intercepted the vessel on its way to break Israel’s Gaza blockade, leaving nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists dead.By severing those ties, the Erdogan government left Israel’s improvements unfinished and the Turkish air force’s F-4 short of counter-measures for evading or attacking the latest Russian-made air defense weapons fired by Syria.

According to, DEBKAfile’s military sources waylaying a Turkish military plane over the sea was therefore a simple matter for the new SA-11.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan admitted Saturday that the jet was shot down over the Mediterranean around 13 kilometers west of the Syrian port of Latakia. He did not explain what a Turkish bomber fighter was doing over Syrian territorial waters, but the suggestion, which Western military sources have confirmed, was that Turkish military jets have lately been carrying out almost daily reconnaissance flights over the Syrian coast. Moscow and Damascus apparently decided it was time to stop the missions which among other things spied on the Russian arms supplies transiting Russian bases at the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia.

and....

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html

( Three things we seem to know - both pilots were not rescued despite the initial report / the turkish jet was flying over Syrian territory when hit / syria has not apologized. )

Turkey says jet downing cannot be ignored

President Abdullah Gul says his country would take the "necessary" action against Syria. Last Modified: 23 Jun 2012 10:14 inShare36 Email Print Share Feedback

Turkish President Abdullah Gul has said it was not possible to ignore the fact that Syria had shot down one of its fighter jets. "It is not possible to cover over a thing like this, whatever is necessary will be done," Gul was quoted as saying by state news agency Anatolia on Saturday. It was not immediately clear where he was speaking. Gul said it was routine for jets travelling at high speed to cross borders for a short distance. He said an investigation into the incident would look at whether the plane was downed in Turkish airspace. "It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over (national) borders ... when you consider their speed over the sea," Gul told Anatolia. "These are not ill-intentioned things but happen beyond control due to the jets' speed." Gul also said Ankara had been in telephone contact with Damascus and that a joint search operation for the plane and missing pilots was still under way. The statement comes after the Syrian military said it shot down a Turkish fighter jet "over its territorial waters", risking a new crisis between Middle Eastern neighbours already at bitter odds over a 16-month-old revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "Our air defences confronted a target that penetrated our air space over our territorial waters pre-afternoon on Friday and shot it down. It turned out to be a Turkish military plane," a statement by the military circulated on state media said. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's office confirmed the incident in which two pilots went missing. "As a result of information obtained from the evaluation of our concerned institutions and from within the joint search and rescue operations with Syria, it is understood that our plane was brought down by Syria," Erdogan's office said in a statement. Turkey would decide on its response to the incident once all of the details became clear, it said in the statement, issued after a two-hour meeting between Erdogan, members of his cabinet and the military. Seach for pilot underway Al Jazeera’s Anita McNaught, reporting from Istanbul, said: "What those necessary measures are in Turkey’s views, whether it will be taking it alone or invoking its membership of NATO or calling for wider support, we don’t know." "Beyond that, what was a Turkish fighter bomber plane doing in Syrian airspace in the first place as per Turkish military," she said. "We don’t know how the plane was downed and how the international community is going to support Turkey in whatever response it decides to take." The military has said a search and rescue operation for the two pilots of the F-4 plane was under way, the Anatolia state news agency said. The jet had lost radio contact with its base over the eastern Mediterranean near Syria's Latakia, an army statement said earlier. Ankara had said earlier that it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its southeastern coast after it took off from Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya. NATO-member Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, turned against the Syrian leader when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world. Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without UN Security Council approval. 'Escalation in tensions' McNaught said: "This is a dramatic escalation in tensions between two neighbouring countries. Relations have been bad for many months and the worse was when the Syrian army fired on a Turkish refugee camp holding Syrian refugees." "At that point Turkey invoked issues of national sovereignty; it was seen as a bit of over-reaction then. "We are in a completely different territory now." Former colonel tells Al Jazeera the international community is not doing enough to support Syria's uprising Russia and China, Assad's strongest backers abroad, have fiercely opposed any outside interference in the Syrian crisis, saying UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan is the only way forward. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his Syrian counterpart that he had urged Syria to "do a lot more" to implement Annan's proposals, but that foreign countries must also press rebels to stop the violence. Lavrov said the Syrian authorities were ready to withdraw troops from cities "simultaneously" with opposition fighters. A Syrian military pullback and a ceasefire were key elements in Annan's six-point peace plan. Annan hit out at some countries he said had taken national initiatives that risked unleashing "destructive competition". He told a news conference in Geneva on Friday that he wanted states with influence on both sides of the conflict to be involved in the peace process, including Iran, Assad's closest ally. Annan was speaking a week before a planned Syria crisis meeting that is in doubt because of Western objections to the Islamic Republic's participation.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/escalation-syria-says-turkish-jet-shot-down-was-over-syrian-territorial-waters

Escalation: Syria Says Turkish Jet Shot Down Was Over Syrian Territorial Waters

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 18:25 -0400

• China
 
• Reuters
 
• Turkey

The "Syrianna" story from this afternoon, which many were quick to label as merely a lot of diplomatic hot air and rhetoric, just turned uglier, after Syria not only did notofficially apologize as Turkey PM Erdogan implied had happened previously for the shot down Turkish F-4 fighter jet, but instead turned the tables on Turkey, and gave itself an out for what is now a definitive military action. From Reuters:

The Syrian military said it shot down a Turkish military aircraft "over Syrian territorial waters" on Friday.

"Our air defences confronted a target that penetrated our air space over our territorial waters pre-afternoon on Friday and shot it down. It turned out to be a Turkish military plane," a statement by the military circulated on state media said.

The only question remains whether Syria's act was offensive or defensive. Naturally, its version is one of self-defense. Turkey obviously will claim it was in its right to be wherever the plane may be, and will say this was an act of provocation. Then NATO, read Hillary Clinton, will promptly step in, and make this a case in which Turkey was in its right and that Syria committed an act of aggression. From there, things will just escalate, and can potentially deteriorate to a far more troubling scale, because as wereminded earlier, Syria has recently become a major symbol for NATO vs the Russia-China axis:

Here is the rub: Turkey is a NATO member, and by definition the alliance will have to come to Turkey's aid if requested. Syria, however is not just any country as has been made quite clear over the past several months of UN impotence: it is a critical staging ground for both Russia (which has a very critical regional naval base in the city of Tartus) and China, and according to the Jerusalem Post, the three countries are in preparation to conduct the "largest ever" war game. As such Syria, already gripped by fierce local fighting, where just like in Egypt and Libya the presence of US-based flipflop on the ground can be smelt from across the Atlantic, is merely a symbol. The real implication is how far can little escalations push until finally the showdown begins, with NATO on one side and Russia and China on the other?

Ultimately, the key catalyst here may be something as simple as whether the pilot of the Turkish plane are alive or dead. BBC explains:

Given the breakdown in relations between the two countries over the Syrian conflict, this incident has the potential to provoke a serious crisis. When gunfire from Syrian forces crossed the Turkish border earlier this year, Ankara threatened a military response.

Much will depend on whether or not the Turkish pilots have survived. If not, public anger might push the government into some kind of punitive action against Syria.

Syria's response will also influence Turkey's reaction. A clear apology, and a statement that the shooting was unintentional, might be enough to assuage Turkish anger.

But then again, we do not know yet whether the aircraft were clearly in Turkish airspace or not. Initial Turkish reports that they came down eight miles from Syrian territorial waters suggests that they were, but Syria may claim otherwise.

At this point it is clear no apology will be forthcoming as Syria's official story is that Turkey had effectively committed an act of aggression against it. So it is up to the viability of the pilots. If dead, anyone who may have been shorting Brent into the weekend may have a nasty surprise come start of trading Monday.

and........

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/syria-shoots-down-nato-member-turkeys-military-f-4-jet

Syria Shoots Down NATO-Member Turkey's Military F-4 Jet

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 12:23 -0400

• Brazil
 
• China
 
• Greenlight
 
• Iran
 
• Middle East
• Newspaper
 
• Reuters
 
• Turkey

Update 4 from the BBC: getting warmer in here.

Turkey's government has called an emergency security meeting amid reports that one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian security forces.

The Turkish military earlier said it had lost contact with an F-4 Phantom over the Mediterranean Sea on Friday morning, south-west of Hatay province.

It did not confirm reports that Syrian air defence forces were responsible.

But local media are quoting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying "the other side have expressed regret".

Mr Erdogan also revealed that the two crew members were safe.

Relations between Turkey and Syria, once close allies, have deteriorated sharply since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011.

...

Witnesses in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia meanwhile told BBC Arabic that Syrian air defences had shot down an unidentified aircraft near the town of Ras al-Basit.

There was no immediate confirmation from Turkish officials, but later it was announced that Mr Erdogan would be holding an emergency meeting with his top military and intelligence chiefs to discuss the missing plane.

Mr Erdogan was also said to have told Turkish reporters on a flight back from Brazil that "the other side have expressed regret" over the downing of the F-4, and also that the pilots had been recovered.

Update 3: they are making it up as they go along:

• TURKISH PM SAYS HAS NO FIRM INFORMATION ON ANY APOLOGY FROM SYRIA, WILL MAKE FURTHER STATEMENT AFTER SECURITY MEETING
• TURKISH PM SAYS CANNOT SAY WHETHER TURKISH WARPLANE SHOT DOWN OR CRASHED, NO NEWS ON PILOTS - TURKISH TV

Looks like everyone is trying to position appropriately.

Update 2 from Syria: Oops, sorry.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that Syria had admitted it shot down a Turkish warplane in the Mediterranean and that Damascus had apologized.

The two pilots of the Turkish F-4 fighter jet are alive, Erdogan had earlier said, before holding a press conference in Ankara.

“At this moment the air force and navy are conducting search and rescue operations in the western Mediterranean and luckily our pilots are alive, we have just lost a plane,” he told journalists while travelling back from Brazil.

Earlier, the Turkish army said it lost radar and radio contact with one of its aircrafts on the Mediterranean near neighboring Syria, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

But Lebanon’s Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar television station said that Syrian air defenses shot down the Turkish military aircraft, quoting Syrian security sources.

“Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defense forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet,” the Hezbollah-owned channel said.

Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader’s fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.

Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.

Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its southeastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

The plane took off from Malatya airbase in the southeast at 0730 GMT and lost communication with the base at 0858 GMT in the southwest of the Hatay province bordering Syria, the military command said in a statement posted online.

“Search and rescue efforts have started immediately,” it said.

Update from Al Jazeera: Turkish PM says cannot say whether Turkish warplane shot down or crashed, no news on pilots.

Just when the geopolitical tensions in the middle east appeared to be abating, and Brent was on a gentle glideslope to whatever price will greenlight the NEW QE now that fears of an Iran war have been very much silenced, things change. Reutersreports that Syria shot down a Turkish warplane on Friday, according to Lebanon's al-Manar television reported, "risking a new crisis between Middle Eastern neighbours already at bitter odds over a 16-month-old revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad." "Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defence forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," the Hezbollah-owned channel said."

Here is the rub: Turkey is a NATO member, and by definition the alliance will have to come to Turkey's aid if requested. Syria, however is not just any country as has been made quite clear over the past several months of UN impotence: it is a critical staging ground for both Russia (which has a very critical regional naval base in the city of Tartus) and China, and according to theJerusalem Post, the three countries are in preparation to conduct the "largest ever" war game. As such Syria, already gripped by fierce local fighting, where just like in Egypt and Libya the presence of US-based flipflop on the ground can be smelt from across the Atlantic, is merely a symbol. The real implication is how far can little escalations push until finally the showdown begins, with NATO on one side and Russia and China on the other?

From Reuters:

Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader's fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.

Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.

Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its south-eastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

CNN Turk television said Turkey was in contact with the Syrian authorities to get permission to conduct a search for the airmen, although there was no immediate official confirmation.

Turkey's military said a search and rescue operation was under way. It lost radar and radio contact with the plane after it left Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya.

Two crew were aboard the F-4 jet, Turkish state news agency Anatolia said, citing Malatya governor Ulvi Saran.

Hurriyet daily newspaper reported that the plane had gone down in international waters and that the two airmen had been found alive and well by Turkish forces.

Be on the lookout for the official Turkish response: it may not happy. Especially if this is merely the latest variation on a very old false flag theme, or merely media manipulation seeking to inflame tensions and incite a Syrian invasion.

And for those wondering, yes, the F-4 still exists, and more shockingly, it still flies.