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and.....
Banks relieved at net inflows
The second day after the election saw banks record a net inflow of cash on Tuesday, just as on Monday, finally returning some sense of normality to the local credit system. Bank officials say that besides the small deposit inflows, estimated at between 100 and 200 million euros, what is more important is that the outpouring of cash has stopped, after amounting to several hundred million euros on a daily basis. Lenders reported that customers were particularly keen to learn about the interest rates offered and the various alternative deposit products available, which is the first sign of a return of deposits. These are likely people with increased liquidity, who have been holding cash at home or elsewhere and are intending to return it to the banking system once the uncertainty ends. A number of bank officials have told Kathimerini that some people have been keeping amounts of 500,000 euros or more at home or in safe deposit boxes and have lost a great deal in interest over fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone. |
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/beggars-can-be-choosers-pro-bailout-greeks-debate-what-conditions-they-hand-over-merkel
Beggars Can Be Choosers As Pro-Bailout Greeks Debate What Conditions They Hand Over To Merkel
For the second time in a few short months we are amazed to learn that beggars can be choosers. The Greek pseudo-coalition between ND, Pasok, which promptly determined it would only be part of a coalition if Syriza joined, then even promptlier completely forget what it had said hours ago after Syriza said "no way, Jose", and some other party with the word "Democracy" in its name, are in deep discussions over what conditions they should give Europe in exchange for a coalition government. That's right: the Greek coalition government is debating over a set of demands to hand over to Europein order to form a government which will last at most weeks.
From Bloomberg: "Greece’s Democratic Left set seven conditions for joining the government, including extending the deficit-cutting timeline to 2017 from 2014 and reversing structural overhauls such as cuts to the minimum wage and pensions. The Pasok Socialist party broadly agreed with those demands." If everyone else is also losing the plot line here and openly confuses cause and effect... you are not alone. Because while it would appear that for Greeks to have such a high set of expectations from Merkel, the Chancellor would be expected to have actually agreed with any of these. Because obviously she hasn't: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to damp speculation that the terms of Greece’s bailout might be relaxed. “We should very tightly keep to the rules and it’s obvious that the reforms that were agreed in the past were the right thing and have to be implemented,” Merkel told reporters today at a summit of world leaders in Mexico." But hey, if Venizelos can mask his flip flopping by somehow justifying it with a condition that was never met in the first place, and if the Greeks, more than half of whom voted against the bailout, are dumb enough to fall for this, then they deserve all the continued pillaging (including gold), that Germany will "bail them out" with.
More:
“Agreement on a policy roadmap is the definitive point to form a government,” Fotis Kouvelis of the Democratic Left, the third part of the planned coalition, said in Athens today. “The process is speeding up. It is possible that in the next few hours, or within the day, a government can be decide.
This is not to be confused with the same promise of imminent government formation floated on Sunday... and Monday...
“Forming a government is tied to the need to form a national negotiating team to ensure the unfavorable terms of the bailout are revised, the terms that were imposed on us, against our will at many points in the first phase of negotiations,” said Evangelos Venizelos of Pasok, who as finance minister from June 2011 to March 2012negotiated the second aid package.
Venizelos told reporters today he would agree to join a
coalition with New Democracy and Democratic Left and that the
government should be formed no later than midday tomorrow..It would actually help if Veni had some, any, leverage, with which to make it seem that his "demands" for a coalition have a snowball's chance in hell of even being read, let alone granted.For more frontal lobe hemmorhage-inducing "logic" read here.
and......
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/56357
8.19pm Evangelos Venizelos after the conclusion of the party meeting, has confirmed that the only coalition structure available and the one being worked on is one containing the Democratic Left, Pasok and New Democracy.
"Before the elections" he said, "we wanted to form a government of national unity, but with Syriza denying a role in this, we have one remaining practical solution"
He then went on to say that Pasok will actively support this government and that tomorrow the party's parliamentary group will decide on the exact mode of participation. He stressed that the most important aspect of this government was not the government itself, but rather the formation of a unified negotiating party, that would handle all aspects of the coming re-negotiations of the bailout agreement.
"Pasok and I will give our all in this battler for re-negotiation. Syriza could have been involved in this effort, but chose not to, electing the easiest role they could for themselves".
According to Pasok sources, the party meeting was highly heated, after Venizelos insisted on no high profile party members participating in the coalition government.
7.40pm The meeting between the top ranking members of the parties taking part in the coalition government discussion was held up for a few hours, as Pasok had a party meeting of their own, to plan their position and movements in the coalition negotiations. The meeting, chaired by party leader Evangelos Venizelos was concluded at the party's offices after about two and a half hours.
According to an official who participated in the meeting, an extensive discussion took place regarding the programme framework that must be agreed between the three parties for the formation of a government, while Venizelos was authorised by the senior officials to handle the issue of the participation of the persons in the government, an issue for which all the views were heard.
6.29pm Apparently New Democracy are making a play for the following ministries: Maritime, Tourism, Development, Citizen Protection, Justice, Interior, Financial, Foreign Affairs and Defence. It doesn't leave much for Pasok and the Democratic Left, but if rumors are true and Pasok remains outside the government structure, then such a play would seem to make a lot more sense.
6.08pm "We're heading to a meeting now to discuss the programme and the possible faces in the new government," an official from one of the three parties has told Reuters.
6.02pm A meeting between officials from New Democracy, Pasok and Democratic Left will start in a few minutes in parliament, in order to negotiate the political platform that the three parties will agree upon for the formation of a coalition government.
ND will be represented by Chrysanthos Lazaridis, MP and top aide of Antonis Samaras and by Evangelos Meimarakis, MP and president of the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy.
Pasok will be represented by MP and former minister Kostas Skandalidis and by Stelios Angeloudis, the head of the office of Evangelos Venizelos, while the Democratic Left, by MP Dimitris Chatzisokratis and the party spokesmanSakis Papathanasiou.
5.58pm The Democratic Left party's central committee will convene on Tuesday afternoon to reach a definitive decision on the party’s participation in a coalition government with New Democracy (ND) and Pasok, a party announcement stated.
According to reports, a majority of the central committee members "positively view" such a prospect, as it became apparent in their meeting on Monday. A proposal by party leader Fotis Kouvelis to form a "coalition government" based on a policy agreement and comprising trustworthy individuals was unanimously accepted.
5.47pm A spokesman for Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has underlined the need to immediately form a government in Greece, in order to launch discussions with the EC-ECB-IMF troika on the initial assessment of the implementation of the second programme in the country.
The discussions will assess the progress made as regards the goals set and jointly decide next steps, he said, stressing that a new government will have to take over implementation of the programme and put the country "back on the right track".
Responding to a relevant question, Amadeu Altafaj pointed out that the European Commission does not make any "guesses" on the likelihood of a new memorandum when it has been just a few months since the second programme was decided for Greece.
However, eurozone sources stressed on Tuesday that if Greece has a new government, one of the goals of an upcoming Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg, on Thursday, will be the opening of a discussion on a new memorandum that will include adjustments of the programme already implemented in the country.
5.25pm A very interesting story from Reuters, as we move ever closer to the formulation of a coalition government:
International lenders and Greece will renegotiate the programme on which the second financial bailout for Athens is based because the original has become outdated, a senior euro zone official has said.
The United States, the largest IMF member, said it supports discussions to review the Greek bailout programme, butGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that any loosening of Greece's reform promises would be unacceptable.
"Anybody who would say that we need not, and cannot renegotiate the MoU (memo of understanding) is delusional, because he, or she, would be under the understanding that the whole programme, the whole process, has remained completely on track ever since the weeks before the Greek first election," the official said.
"Because the economic situation has changed, the situation of tax receipts has changed, the rhythm of implementation of the milestones has changed, the rhythm of privatisation has changed - if we were not to change the MoU - it does not work," he said.
"We would be signing off on an illusion. So we have to sit down with our Greek colleagues and say: this is where we should be in July, and this is where we are in July, and there is a delta. Let's find out what the delta is and then how to deal with the delta - that is a new MoU," the official said.
The official said that representatives of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and theEuropean Commission will come to Greece as soon as there is a new government to review the implementation of the programme so far and prepare for negotiations.
"It is no secret, quite logical in fact, that due to the time passed without a functioning government in place that can take the required decisions, because of this, there have been significant delays," the official said.
"The conclusion is that they have to engage in discussions on the memorandum of understanding and bring it back onto an even keel," he said.
The troika will report its findings to euro zone finance ministers who will decide how to move forward and troika officials will then negotiate with Greece.
"Once we have reached a satisfactory conclusion, a new MoU will be signed that will contain, as usual, the required milestones to be undertaken and disbursement scheduled, contingent on the successful conclusion of a review," the official said.
Any review of the terms of the bailout would still retain the main goals of the programme, debt sustainability and reforms, the offical said.
But he played down paying too much attention to precise numbers forecast far into the future.
"One of the main issues is that debt sustainability is achieved and maintained. There is sometimes a belief that there is a magic figure of 120 percent of GDP," the official said.
"Anybody who can forecast the debt to GDP ratio of a country in a very, very volatile and challenging economic environment in 2020 is probably cleverer than all of us together," he said.
"Debt sustainability is one of the two big targets. There are quite clear views in the Eurogroup on the fact that debt sustainability 4-8 years out cannot be compromised," he said.
"That is one big target. The second big target is ...structural reforms in Greece by the Greek authorities, which are a necessary condition for bringing Greece on a growth track," he said.
and....
http://ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_28971_19/06/2012_448009
Party reservations hold up coalition deal
PASOK, Democratic Left split over whether to commit officials, deal could be concluded Wednesday
 |
Greece edged on Tuesday toward a coalition government between New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left but the conclusion of a deal was held up by internal wrangling in the latter two parties.
It is expected that disagreement within PASOK and Democratic Left will be cleared up on Wednesday and that an agreement on the new administration’s policy program as well as who will enter the Cabinet will be agreed.
New Democracy’s Antonis Samaras, PASOK’s Evangelos Venizelos and Democratic Left’s Fotis Kouvelis are expected to hold their final talks on Wednesday before a deal is clinched. Samaras looks certain to become prime minister and he is thought to favor Vassilis Rapanos, the president of National Bank, as finance minister. Samaras is also considering the appointment of Christos Staikouras, an ND deputy and economics professor, as deputy finance minister in charge of revenues. The head of the IOBE think tank, Yannis Stournaras, is also being touted for a role in the new administration’s financial team.
However, internal party problems have to be overcome before the government can be formed. Venizelos is opposed to the participation of high-profile PASOK figures in the government. This, however, brought him into direct conflict with some of his party’s heavyweights, such as former ministers Andreas Loverdos and Michalis Chrysochoidis. Ex-Agriculture Minister Costas Skandalidis was among those who supported Venizelos’s cautious approach.
The issue was discussed between the PASOK leader and a seven-member party committee. The disagreement between PASOK officials led to the start of talks between representatives of the three parties in the would-be coalition being delayed. Officials from New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left met at about 8 p.m. to discuss the policy framework for the coalition government.
Loverdos and Chrysochoidis argued that PASOK’s poor showing in the elections, where it earned less than 13 percent, did not justify Venizelos taking such a strong line against his party’s frontline officials being involved in the government.
Venizelos is due to put the issue to his party’s 33 MPs during a meeting on Wednesday morning. The PASOK president met individually on Tuesday with some Socialist deputies. Sources said that most PASOK MPs agreed with Venizelos’s stance but were also concerned about non-political figures taking cabinet positions.
| Despite the opening up of these internal fault lines, Venizelos said a coalition could be formed on Wednesday. “I repeat that this government must be formed as soon as possible. The way things stand now, this could be achieved by tomorrow lunchtime,” he said, adding that PASOK “will support the government honestly.” Venizelos said the cabinet lineup was less important than creating a team that would be able to negotiate more favorable bailout terms with Greece’s lenders. “The most crucial aspect is not who will be in the government but who will participate in the national negotiation team that will seek the most favorable review of the bailout,” Venizelos added. The PASOK leader has proposed that this team could travel to Brussels every three months to discuss the details of the fiscal adjustment program, thereby avoiding the quarterly inspections by troika officials in Athens. Earlier on Tuesday the PASOK chief said that leftist SYRIZA could have taken part in the negotiations, even if it was not part of a new coalition. SYRIZA immediately shot down the proposal as “a publicity stunt.” Democratic Left appears keener on the idea. PASOK officials have suggested that Nobel Prize-winning Cypriot economist Christopher Pissarides could be appointed to head this negotiating team. Democratic Left leader Kouvelis is facing a similar conflict to Venizelos over the question of how actively his party should be involved in the coalition. Some members of the leftist group are against the idea of Democratic Left officials being appointed to the Cabinet. There were also calls for Kouvelis to object to the appointment of New Democracy officials such as former Transport Minister Makis Voridis due to his far-right past. Kouvelis said the formation of a coalition was possible if an agreement could be found on a common policy platform and “trustworthy personalities” to join the Cabinet. He added that he was waiting for political parties to respond to his policy proposals -- chiefly, the extension of the fiscal adjustment program and the revocation of the toughest austerity measures, such as the reduction of the minimum wage. Late on Tuesday night, Kouvelis reportedly told his party’s central committee that Democratic Left would not provide any personnel for the government but would support the coalition in Parliament. The leftists are likely to ask for some of the members of the caretaker administration, such as Interior Minister Antonis Manitakis and Labor Minister Antonis Roupakiotis, to stay on. Meanwhile, SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras said he felt vindicated by the fact that all the parties, as well as European officials, were discussing renegotiating the terms of the bailout. “What SYRIZA has been saying all along is that the bailout plan is not viable and cannot go on,” he told Reuters. “Now they all recognize this.” Tsipras, however, insisted that the leftists would be responsible in opposition and prepare to come to power soon. The SYRIZA leader said only his party could guarantee reforms such as cutting waste in the public sector. “We have talked about the need to stop people collecting salaries for doing nothing, about reducing the number of ministers’ advisers and government officials by half, and curtailing MPs’ and ministers’ wages and privileges.” |
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/its-just-impossible.html
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 1:16 PM
It's Just Impossible
The off-again, on-again, off-again Telegraph writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is back on-again with correct analysis in his post Greek agony drags on as Asphyxiation Bloc wins
Europe’s establishment is delighted by the victory of New Democracy and pro-asphyxiation bloc. This relief is unlikely to last much beyond today, if that.
Greece’s new leaders have a mandate from Hell. Almost 52pc of the popular vote went to parties that opposed the bail-out Memorandum in one way or another. There is no national acceptance of the Troika’s austerity policies whatsoever.
The hard-Left Syriza party of Alexis Tsipras is arguably more dangerous in opposition, now fortified with big bloc of seats in Parliament. He can lacerate the government without responsibility as the state sheds 150,000 public sector workers, a fifth of the total.
It was for this outcome that the Greece’s elected government was toppled last year in an EU Putsch. We now learn from ex-premier George Papandreou that this was "all Sarkozy’s fault".
France’s leader refused to let Papandreou call a referendum on the bail-out terms (which would almost certainly have passed), and Chancellor Angela Merkel went along with this shoddy act of EU colonialism. The EU threatened, in effect, to cut off Troika payments. The PASOK government was replaced by an EU-appointed technocrat.As is always the case, Pritchard is at his finest when he analyzes what has happened or what is about to happen. He gets in trouble when he proposes solutions to prevent the inevitable.
A frightening precedent was set, and for no purpose. All the EU has achieved is to replace a truculent Greek parliament with one that is completely unworkable.
As for New Democracy, it cannot meet the terms of each quarterly Troika payment in the future even if it secures the support of PASOK socialists because the terms are – politically – impossible to meet.
In this case, Pritchard did not ask for Eurobonds, beg German chancellor Angela Merkel for steps the German supreme court will not allow, ask the ECB to turn on the printing presses, or any other such silly ideas that tend to get him in trouble.
Instead, he simply (and correctly) stated "the terms are – politically – impossible to meet".Mathematically Impossible
The Financial Times also notes the impossibility of it all.
Please consider the opening statements in What happens if Angela Merkel gets her way
- The Bundesbank said there should be no banking union until there is a fiscal union.
- Angela Merkel said that there should be no fiscal union until there is political union.
- François Hollande said that there should be no political union until there is a banking union.
The writer of that article should have stopped right there, but instead went on with nonsense about a "concrete proposal" from Hollande to let the ESM inject unlimited liquidity into banks via the ECB.
Excuse me for pointing out that neither the Bundesbank nor Merkel, nor the German constitution would allow such a stupid thing. That means we need to have a fourth bullet point.
4. The German supreme court will not allow a political union nor a fiscal union, nor a banking union without a German referendum.
In recognition of the impossibility of it all, I offer this musical tribute.
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