Egypt stuck between a rock and a hard place with the revolution almost a bitter memory - Juan Cole provides a thoughtful commentary as to how things devolved.....

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261813938457956.html

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood calls for protests

Ruling council's move to expand its powers called "coup" as country awaits presidential election's official results. Last Modified: 18 Jun 2012 21:09 inShare21 Email Print Share Feedback

Egypt's Muslim brotherhood is calling on people to protest against what it calls a "coup" by the ruling generals, as the country awaits the publication of official results from the weekend's presidential election. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, or SCAF, has granted itself a number of sweeping powers, including control of the budget and the army. It repeated on Monday its pledge to hand over authority to a civilian government by the end of the month. Mohammed al-Assar, one of the generals, said during a lengthy press conference in Cairo that there would be a "grand ceremony" to mark the transition. "We'll never tire or be bored from assuring everyone that we will hand over power before the end of June," he said. According to a decree issued on Sunday night, SCAF will retain authority over the budget and the legislative process until a new parliament is elected, The decree even limits the new president's powers as commander-in-chief, stating that he can only declare war "with the approval of the military council." Sameh Ashour, the head of SCAF's advisory council, says the incoming president would probably have a short term, and would be replaced after a new constitution was drafted. "The upcoming president will occupy the office for a short period of time, whether or not he agrees," he told Al Jazeera. "His office term will be short despite the huge efforts exerted in the election campaigns." It still was not clear, nearly 24 hours after polls closed, who that next president will be. Against this backdrop of deepending uncertainty, the US said it was deeply concerned about the situation in Egypt. Duelling victory claims Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, claimed victory in the early hours of Monday morning. The Brotherhood's unofficial tally had Morsi leading with about 12.7 million votes, or 52.5 per cent of the total. Several other counts from media organisations, including Al Jazeera, also showed Morsi with a narrow lead. "Thank God, who guided the people of Egypt to this right path, the path of freedom and democracy," Morsi said during his victory speech, vowing to work for a "civil, democratic, constitutional and modern state". The Brotherhood said it was confident in its figures, and indeed their unofficial counts have been accurate in past elections. "Our official numbers in round one matched exactly the [presidential election commission's] final numbers," the group said in a statement. But his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, the final prime minister under deposed president Hosni Mubarak, rejected Morsi's claim of victory and accused him of trying to "usurp" the presidency. "What the other candidate has done threatens Egypt's future and stability," he said in a statement. Shafiq's campaign said their own internal figures showed their candidate leading with about 52 per cent of the vote, and accused Morsi's camp of miscounting millions of ballots. The generals did not address the electoral confusion during Monday's press conference. They instead tried to rebut criticism of their decree, a so-called "constitutional annex" which will govern the country until a new constitution is drafted. Mamdouh Shahin, another of the generals, said that the president would still have the authority to ratify or reject any laws approved by SCAF. Supreme court ruling SCAF dissolved parliament last week following a ruling by the supreme court, which found the legislature unconstitutional. The court ruled that provisions of the electoral law - which allowed political parties to compete for seats reserved for independent candidates - violated the constitution. Egyptians elect first new president in post-Mubarak era With the legislature gone, the generals reasserted control over the legislative process, and over the country's budget. "The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces shall exercise the powers referred to under the first clause of article 56 [the article on legislative power] ... until the election of a new People's Assembly," the decree states. The decree promises fresh legislative elections, but not until a new constitution has been drafted. Before it was dissolved, the parliament appointed a 100-member assembly to draft that constitution; it will be allowed to continue its work, though if it runs into "obstacles", SCAF will appoint a replacement. The Muslim Brotherhood was quick to condemn the decree, calling it "null and unconstitutional" in a brief statement on Twitter. Asked about the decree during the group's press conference, Ahmed Abdel-Atti, Morsi's campaign co-ordinator, said he expected "popular action" against it in the near future.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261619919728374.html

Egypt's choice leaves voters out of sorts

Mixed turnout as voters make what many see as unappealing choice between an Islamist and Mubarak's last prime minister. Evan Hill Last Modified: 17 Jun 2012 05:55 inShare10 Email Print Share Feedback

Damanhour, Egypt - With the country's politics in turmoil and increasingly polarised, Egyptians have voted in a presidential runoff that pits the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate against the last prime minister appointed by deposed president Hosni Mubarak. Despite the high stakes, most observers reported low turnout throughout the country on Saturday, with a notable absence of voter queues. Egypt's Lawyers Syndicate, in a statement, said the majority of polling places had not seen more than 15 per cent of registered voters come out. Some speculated that the summer heat had kept voters away, while others said both campaigns were waiting to hear initial exit polls before ramping up their efforts on Sunday.As in the first round, voting was extended by one hour, to 9pm, the electoral commission announced. Though both campaigns complained of voting violations, including premarked ballots and rumours of disappearing ink, neither they nor the country's Supreme Presidential Election Commission said the problems had amounted to widescale fraud. Farouk Sultan, the head of the electoral commission, said in a press conference that both candidates had violated the law during the first day of voting. "We observed more breaches committed by one campaign than the other," he said, though he didn't identify which one. At stake in the two-day election is the loosely defined but crucial office of the presidency. Since the January 2011 revolt ousted Mubarak after 30 years of rule marked by rigged and unfair elections, executive power has been held by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, a group of generals who have presided over a transition that has increasingly veered off course, driving Egypt's economy into a ditch. The political chaos reached a climax on Thursday, when the country’s Supreme Constitutional Court ordered parliament dissolved, and the military council announced it would take over legislative powers and the drafting of a new constitution. The day before, the justice ministry issued a decision giving the military power to arrest civilians. The SCAF had previously pledged to give up power by the end of June, following the presidential election. 'I see Mubarak' The series of events, which a top Brotherhood official called a “fully fledged coup,” drastically raised the stakes in the contest between the Islamist movement’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, and his opponent, former air force lieutenant general Ahmed Shafiq. Between the two sides lie more than 10 million people who voted for other candidates in the first round and may be decisive in the second. Many of them, dissatisfied with the both the secretive and conservative Brotherhood and the regime-tainted Shafiq, have vowed to boycott or spoil their ballots in protest. Voters around the country on Saturday showed little sign of the energy or excitement that had marked earlier votes on the country's interim constitution and parliament. Instead, they voiced resignation at being forced to choose between the two men, as well as a fear that there will be protests and unrest no matter who wins.“If Shafiq wins, there will be demonstrations, if Morsi wins, there will be demonstrations, at the end of the day, there will be a military coup,” said Mohammed Gharbani, a 30-year-old construction worker in Damanhour, in the Nile Delta. But he said he would vote for Morsi. "I see Mubarak in the face of Shafiq," he said. Morsi received more than 222,000 votes from Egyptian expatriates earlier this month, compared to Shafiq's 75,000, according to preliminary results. But it is hard to predict how either will fare in the runoff, especially since Shafiq received less than 10 per cent of the overseas vote in the first round yet nearly equalled Morsi, with about 25 per cent of the total. With neither a parliament nor a new constitution in place to define the president's powers, the outcome from the voting will still leave more than 82 million Egyptians, foreign investors and allies in the United States and Europe unsure about what kind of state the most populous Arab nation will be. "I think that in the coming days, weeks, SCAF will issue what we call a supplementary constitutional declaration by which it will try to further specify the powers of the new president," said Mazen Hassan, a legal scholar at Cairo University. Where is the energy? Sherine Tadros Cairo correspondent My first thought when I got to the polling station this morning was, where is the energy and excitement? This round is markedly different from previous ones I have covered. It's not surprising, given that millions turned up to vote for the parliamentary elections - braving the wind and the rain - only to find the body they elected dissolved in one swoop. Now, many people feel like they are choosing between the lesser of two evils. It's not about who you believe in, but who you are afraid of - that is what is driving the vote. 'Someone from the old regime' Of the three prominent defeated candidates, only one, ex-Muslim Brother Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, made an endorsement, backing Morsi. Former Arab League chief Amr Moussa said he had voted for a “civil state,” implying Shafiq, and socialist Hamdeen Sabahi said he wouldn’t vote Egypt’s activist pro-democracy April 6 movement also backed Morsi, reflecting an apparent decision among many in the amorphous pro-revolution constituency that the enemy of their enemy had become their friend, and the Brotherhood was the last force standing between them and a return to the oppressive style of Mubarak’s rule. Both candidates turned out early to cast their own ballots. Morsi voted in Zagazig, the Nile Delta city where he spent decades teaching, while Shafiq voted in the Cairo suburb of Tagammu al-Khamis. Journalists at his polling station said he slipped in through a back door amidst heavy security; when he cast his vote in the first round, he was surrounded by an angry, shoe-throwing crowd. Al Jazeera's Sherine Tadros, who visited polling stations in several Cairo neighbourhoods, tweeted that voters there overwhelmingly backed Shafiq. He trailed Morsi in the capital in the first round, though it was Sabahi, the Nasserist candidate, who came in first with roughly one-third of the city's votes. In the coastal city of Alexandria, which also went for Sabahi, one young voter told Al Jazeera that she could not vote for a representative of the old regime. "I want a president that can fix the educational system," said Suhaila Nassar. "It should be provided for me here, as a citizen. I voted for Mohammed Morsi because he is not from the old regime … If I had voted for someone from the old regime, then the revolution would have been pointless." 'Anti-regime states' In Damanhour, a town of about 240,000 people in the heart of the mostly rural Beheira governorate, turnout appeared to be low throughout the day. A steady flow of voters filed into polling stations in several neighbourhoods, but no queues were apparent. Morsi took first place in Beheira the first round, while Shafiq came in fifth. Nader Bakkar, the spokesman for the salafi Nour Party, talks about the elections Hosni Omar, a civil engineer and Muslim Brotherhood member who was observing polling stations for the Morsi campaign, said the Brotherhood estimated turnout in the Damanhour area had only reached 10 per cent by noon. Omar said that the campaign had reported voting violations in various governorates, but none that amounted to widespread fraud or vote rigging. Their colleagues in Alexandria had reported seeing a riot police truck carrying men in civilian clothes, but there was no proof they were transporting police to vote illegally, as many have worried might happen since the first round. But he still predicted a "record" victory for Morsi. "Beheira has always been one of those anti-regime states," he said. Mohammed Ghonim, a roving poll monitor for Shafiq’s campaign, also said he had not seen any serious violations, though he accused the Brotherhood of conducting illegal campaigning. Ghonim said he expected Shafiq to double the amount of votes he received in Beheira in the first round thanks to a surge in influential local families who in the first round had sided with Sabahi or Moussa. “These are the current circumstances of the Delta, including Beheira, it’s largely dependant on families and relations,” he said. 'There weren't any good choices' Security forces including the army, navy, and marines as well as interior ministry investigators and police guarded polling stations throughout the country. April 6 reported that some of its activists had been arrested for trying to observe the vote and holding posters of slain protesters, while some journalists complained of harassment from poll guards as well as bystanders. In Damanhour, a group of marines briefly stopped an Al Jazeera reporter, demanded his accreditation and passport, and told him conducting interviews on the street and outside polling stations was equivalent to "intelligence work". One soldier filmed the group as they questioned him. The commanding officer said they had been notified of a foreign journalist conducting interviews, then released him. Judges overseeing the vote in the area described a smooth and uneventful process. In polling places, Al Jazeera witnessed them checking IDs and enforcing confidentiality. Some said they had received supplementary lists of names to be struck from the voter rolls on Friday, but only in small numbers. Standing outside a polling station in central Damanhour, Abdelrahman Gomaa, a 23-year-old student, said he would vote for Shafiq, even if he was a member of the old regime, because he did not believe the Brotherhood was competent to run the country and did not trust the group after it broke its promise not to run a presidential candidate. His friend Mohammed Montassir, a 21-year-old student at the Naval Academy in Alexandria, said he had voted for Sabahi in the first round but Shafiq in the runoff because he believed the Brotherhood were power hungry and had hijacked the revolution. By failing to unite, he said, the youth and revolutionary forces had lost their chance for a candidate. “There weren't any good choices," he said.

http://www.juancole.com/2012/06/did-the-egyptian-generals-make-their-coup-because-of-a-conspiracy-theory.html

Did the Egyptian Generals make their Coup because of a Conspiracy Theory?

Posted on 06/17/2012 by Juan

The initial reaction of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party to the high court decision dissolving parliament had been acquiescence. On Sunday, they got a bit more active, arguing that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) did not have the right to dissolve parliament despite the court ruling (i.e. that it wasn’t the body with legal standing to do so). They also argued that the dissolution must be put to a popular referendum, since it voided the vote of millions of Egyptians.

All of this raises the question of why the Mubarak-appointed judiciary backed by SCAF moved against the parliament, which was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. I don’t believe that the SCAF coup was based on a rational calculation. Rather, I think the generals see the world as a conspiracy against them, and that the basis for their action was likely irrational.

Gen. Omar Suleiman addressed a letter to the Egyptian people Saturday,urging them to vote in the elections but implicitly criticizing the Muslim Brotherhood as arrogant and overbearing, and suggesting that you might hear them now talking about cooperating with everyone, but alleging that such talk is merely manipulative. Suleiman is a former head of military intelligence and was vice president in the last Mubarak government. He had wanted to run for president but was disqualified by the courts on the grounds that he hadn’t gathered enough petition signatures.

When I was in Cairo in May, a reporter told me that Suleiman gave a talk at the al-Ahram Center in which he alleged that the Muslim Brotherhood was preparing to develop a violent paramilitary capability. Generals such as he view the Brotherhood as not very different from al-Qaeda and as potentially violent, even though the organization gave up violence in the 1970s and has been disciplined about only using civil means to gain power ever since.

It also seems clear that the generals have a conspiracy theory that the United States is somehow behind the Jan. 25, 2011 revolt against Hosni Mubarak, and that Washington is secretly funding the leftist youth groups that spearheaded the big demonstrations then and since. That is why they keep harassing foreigners and journalists who seem too interested in Egyptian politics, and why they aired commercials recently discouraging Egyptians from speaking to foreigners.

Only a conspiracy theorist could simultaneously hold that the Muslim Brotherhood is a theocratic cabal with paramilitary aspirations and that the US is supporting it and other revolutionary forces.

Another alleged foreign player in Egypt is Qatar, which Egyptians see as a supporter and funder of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Mufti or chief Muslim legal adviser of Egypt, Ali Gomaa, on Sunday riposted to an attack on him by the Muslim televangelist at al-Jazeerah Arabic, Yousuf al-Qaradawi. Qaradawi had blasted Gomaa for saying he was neutral in the presidential contest. Qaradawi insisted that all clerics had to come out for Muhammad Mursi, the Brotherhood candidate. (Actually using the pulpit to promote a partisan candidate is illegal in Egypt). Gomaa implied that Qaradawi is after personal glory and thinks he is a real Muslim while others are ersatz.

The subtext here is that many Egyptians see Qaradawi as a Muslim Brotherhood icon supported by the Qatari government. One Egyptian told me that when Qaradawi showed up in Tahrir Square in Feb. 2011 during the attempt overthrow Hosni Mubarak, it reminded him of Vladimir Lenin showing up in Russia after the initial revolution. Of course, Lenin later overthrew the parliamentary regime that briefly emerged, making Russia a communist dictatorship in the October Revolution of 1917. My friend was wondering if Qaradawi hoped to play Lenin in subverting a democratic revolution and putting in power an ideological one-party state.