Saturday, June 9, 2012

Considering the impact on the Spanish bank bailout on the upcoming Greece elections - will Syriza be a the big winner if Spain gets a sweeter deal than Greece , Portugal and Ireland ?

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/56186


Tsipras lashes out at Angela Merkel
10 Jun 2012
The Syriza leader has reacted to Angela Merkel's comments on Greece, concerning the memorandum. (file photo)
The Syriza leader has reacted to Angela Merkel's comments on Greece, concerning the memorandum. (file photo)
Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) leader Alexis Tsipras strongly criticised German chancellor Angela Merkel on her statement on Friday, that Greece must fulfill all its commitments as a condition for remaining in the eurozone, and called on Merkel to clearly state "what article of the European Treaties sets out the Memorandums of austerity as a condition for membership in the eurozone".
 
Addressing a campaign rally on Saturday evening in Kavala, Tsipras passed off Merkel's statement as
"pre-election fireworks", and asked "where has it ever been heard that the annihilation of a peoples and dissolution of a country is a condition for participation in the euro?", calling the statement a "putrid bait of danger-mongering" which, however, "convinces no one because no one can be coerced by the pre-electoral rallying of the lenders with their 'people' in Greece, namely Mr. Samaras and Mr. Venizelos.
 
Tsipras also cited a recent position voiced by US President Barack Obama, who doubted the correctness of the European policy on the eurozone debt crisis, in defending the correctness of Syriza's policy.
 
The Syriza leader urged the Greek voters to lend strength to his party so that it may implement its platform to the benefit of the people and the country, for re-starting Greece, rejuvenating the society, economic recovery and growth, restoration of the country's international dignity and credibility, and putting an end to partisanship, lack of meritocracy, corruption and collusion. (AMNA)


and....





http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-spain-public.h1k


Greek party leaders trade blows over Spain bank bailout

10 June 2012, 16:22 CET
— filed under: 
(ATHENS) - Greek party leaders Sunday traded blows over the rights and wrongs of a Spanish bank bailout, with the right insisting it showed the importance of talking with Europe on the country's own problems.
New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, campaigning ahead of key June 17 elections, said Greece must not isolate itself in Europe, thereby losing its ability to influence its partners after two EU-IMF massive bailouts.
"Think. While a country like Spain negotiates, there are some people here who argue that we must break things with Europe and isolate Greece," Samaras said, referring to the radical leftist party Syriza headed by Alexis Tsipras.
"But fortunately, apart from the path of irresponsibility, there is the road of responsibility," he added.
"The conclusion that is drawn from the developments in Spain is the complete opposite from what Mr. Samaras perceives," Syriza responded in a statement.
"The only route of dignity and prosperity for the European people is to reject the (bailout accord) policies of austerity and recession and not that of accepting as whole the memorandum commitments, as Mr. Samaras does," it added.
The June 17 election is turning into a straight vote over the austerity measures Greece agreed to in return for its rescue deals.
New Democracy and the Socialist Pasok party, which both supported the rescues, claim that to reject their terms could see Greece forced out of the eurozone.
Tsipras says he wants to retain the euro -- like the vast majority of Greeks -- but cannot accept the austerity measures which have helped to plunge the country into a fifth year of recession.
"Developments in Spain confirm the position that we have maintained from the start," Tsipras told the Avgi daily in an interview on Sunday.
"Namely, that the crisis is a pan-European problem and that the way it has been dealt with until now has been completely ineffective and socially disastrous," Tsipras said.
Pasok Leader Evangelos Venizelos said that "what happened in Spain has great impact on Greece ... (the accord) shows that a safety net for the eurozone is being prepared."
On Saturday, Spain's European peers agreed to give a lifeline of up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to save its stricken banks, with Madrid hailing the accord as a victory for the country and the euro.


and....




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/9321882/Spanish-bailout-We-dont-care-about-politics.-We-just-want-to-be-paid.html

( reading the story , Spain really does resemble Greece , doesn't it ? )


Ana Rivadulla knows all about austerity measures. The Spanish town hall worker has not been paid for almost nine months, because her local mayor told her the funds had simply run out.
"We are living a nightmare," said Mrs Rivadulla, 50. "I never believed this could happen."
But in Spain, it is happening. And on a frightening scale: 434 local administrations are having their taxes retained, to pay off debts.
Mrs Rivadulla, an administrator, is among 800 people employed by the local government in La Linea de la Concepcion, a windswept coastal town in the Andalucia region of southern Spain. Many, like her, have not been paid since last October, and are now forced to live on hand-outs from friends and family. Some are taking out banks loans, others remortgaging their houses and selling their cars.
"The mayor simply said 'there is no money left,'" said Mrs Rivadulla, shaking her head sadly as she sat on the steps of La Linea's town hall, where hundreds of fellow employees staged a protest last week.
"All I know is that it is not the fault of the workers."
Mrs Rivadulla spoke as Spain looked on the point of swallowing its pride and joining Greece, Portugal and Ireland in seeking a billion bail-out for its banks, a move that seemed all but certain on Saturday when Eurozone finance ministers held a conference call to discuss such a deal.
Spain's centre-Right government has so far publicly denied making such a request, fearing it will involve a humiliating hand-over of control of its national purse-strings to anonymous Brussels and IMF apparatchiks.
Only last Tuesday, the country's finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, insisted: "The men in black will not be coming to Spain."
However, in places like La Linea, a town of 65,000 where roughly one in three people of working age is jobless, nobody is interested in sparing the blushes of the political elite. All they care about is when they will be paid.
On Thursday, The Sunday Telegraph watched as workers on the protest in La Linea tried to storm a council meeting, demanding to be given their salaries. Regional police in body armour were brought in to quell the unrest – the local police, like the demonstrators, had not been paid for nine months and so were not on hand.
The town hall employees have kept working despite being unpaid because they fear that if they resign, they will forfeit any wages they are owed.
But for the past nine months they have been burning tyres, going on strike, and writing letters to the Socialist lady mayor, Gemma Araujo, whose administration is milliones in debt.
"Our town is bankrupt, what are you laughing about mayor?" read one banner last week.
The workers allege that unlike the bosses of more heavily indebted towns such as Marbella and Jerez, Ms Araujo has failed to negotiated decent repayment terms for La Linea's debts.
Instead, the majority of the taxation paid by La Linea's residents goes straight to Madrid, with not enough returned to fund the running of the municipality and to pay its workers.
In a sense, their gripe is a microcosm of the complaints voiced by disgruntled Greeks, Portuguese and Irish, who claim their governments should likewise have negotiated far more generous terms for their bail-outs.
"Our mayor is not supporting us," said Ricardo Fernandez de Vera, 53, a town hall lawyer. "She should have gone to Madrid and told them that we would pay off our debts slowly, so we could all get paid. We don't need to hand over every penny to the government, while we go hungry."
Unlike in Greece and Ireland, the prospect of a bail-out in Spain has not led to a rise in feeling against Germany, whose Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been accused of trying to impose excessively harsh austerity measures.
The Spanish government has not dithered in belt-tightening programmes, and among many of the demonstrators in La Linea, there is an acceptance that Spain is the author of its own misfortunes.
Mr Fernandez, the lawyer, conceded Spain's 8,700 municipalities were part of the problem: the country, he said, should halve the number of local government offices to save money. Massive over-reliance on the construction sector was also weakness, he added.
"It started off as a small problem with excess spending in the late 1970s, but now the issue has rolled and rolled," he said. "It is a small stone that has become a giant rock."
Certainly the Spanish problems, which started with overspending in regional governments, have become very big mountains indeed. On Thursday, credit agency Fitch slashed Spain's rating by three notches, from A to BBB.
Worse still, Fitch said Spain would likely remain slumped in recession this year and next, rather than stage a mild recovery in 2013, denting hopes of reducing the 25 per cent national unemployment rate.
Eurozone officials have signalled that they are willing to offer Spain a bail-out if requested, amid fears that the government's already over-stretched public finances will be unable to rescue its troubled banking sector, which was wrecked by the bursting of the country's property bubble.
Spain's most stricken bank, Bankia S.A., needs €18.9 billion in government aid, but Spain only has €5 billion left of a bail-out fund set up in 2009 to help banks.
A report by the IMF estimates that the banks need at least €40 billion to stay afloat.
Iif it does accept outside help, Spain will attempt to portray the package as a "bailout-lite", which will focus purely on helping the banks rather than filling Spanish government coffers.
As such, it will minimise the imposition of extra austerity measures - which are already biting hard - and structural reforms imposed from outside.
That, Madrid hopes, will mean the "Men in Black" keep their distance, as least in the eyes of the residents of towns like La Linea, anyway. Not that they will probably be watching.
"We are desperate here, all we ask for is to be paid. " said protester Eduardo Izaguirre, 56. "It is not much. But we need them to give us that."

and.....






http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-09/spain%E2%80%99s-rescate-%E2%80%9Crescue%E2%80%9D

( I agree with Russ point of view that this could help SYRIZA in Greece , disagree with WH / Geithner public opining as to the need of Europe dealing with Spain quickly as translating into US dollars going visibly / openly / actually going toward a bank bailout for Spain - during an election season , with the President reeling badly and weakening job numbers and a weakening economy.....Obama has scored enough own goals lately , he won't give a elephant size trophy like that to the GOP .)


Spain’s Rescate (“Rescue”)

Spain’s bank rescue news is out,  and the obfuscation is very high, as usual. The rescate (rescue) amount offered is 100 billion euros, a mere two and a half times last week’s estimate. This tells us the Spanish banks are under-capitalized by at least 100 billion euros. That’s positive? We already knew the ESFS and ESM would lend Spain money, the question is in what manner?  This uses up about all the capacity Europe has on it’s own.  This opens up more cans of worms.
Once Spain takes the money, then their obligation in the EFSF and ESM bail out mechanisms would be taken over by others. Those “others” are Italy, whose share rises from 19% to 22%.  France’s share rises from 22% to 25%, and Germany’s from 29% to 33%. The smaller core countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, etc will pick up a little more as well.  By piling more on Italy and Belgium, the credibility of the guarantees given to EFSF bonds would collapse.

That’s why I think the American clown posse was out in force last week hinting at involvement to placate Germany (and Italy and France).  This may not be revealed upfront at first, because it is now necessary to go back to Germany, and have them object to the unconditional rescate.  Already Finland is demanding collateral if Spanish aid is through EFSF, and good collateral is in short supply, especially when Moody downgrades Spain to BBB. In response the IMF and US in particular will get involved. It could even take the form of a unilateral US participation without needing the harder sale involved in bringing in the IMF.

Apparently the IMF will supervise the “rescue plan”,  in an advisory role, with focus on the banking system.  That is strange given that IMF advocates bail ins (bondholders and equity holders take the hit).  It will really going to be impossible to sell this to Germany without broader international involvement.  US-Spain ties have historically been strong and I think when the fog lifts, the US will be involved backing this rescate (and further rescates) with money.   If so, this very well could mark the end of the US phony safe haven house of mirrors, and it will impact both the USD and Treasury market.  The commercials have lined up big shorts of Treasuries ( 2 year5 year10 year, and 30 year),  and are long Swiss Francs and Euros. Now we may know why.


This sets up an enormous Euro short squeeze. The boyz are so off side, that this one could take some down. Somebody important is going to gush blood. That is why I have been long a good size position in Swiss Francs in the forex market. From an actionable perspective I could see a euro rally up to 1.28-1.29 convergence overhead.



Source: Sober Look, Euro positioning.

Spain is saying that it is ‘agreeing’ to a bailout without conditions and only after the bank audit has been completed June 20- in other words sometime after the Greek election.

This should be a boost to the mutually assured depression tactics (MADT) of the anti-bailout partidos in Greece (and elsewhere).  It would be logical that political partidos in Ireland, and Portugal also adopt MADT. In fact Italy should too, because of the new burdens that have been piled on.









https://lucas2012infos.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/john-ward-euroblown-merkel-the-merciful-offers-athens-a-clear-choice-9-june-2012/#more-15945


John Ward – Euroblown : Merkel The Merciful Offers Athens A Clear Choice… – 9 June 2012

The Angela of Death
…stay in the eurozone and die, or leave the eurozone and be poor.
I wonder if ‘choice’ is perhaps the most twisted reinvention of a word in the history of language. Jeremy *unt is a great choice driveller: choice of 56 Murdoch Channels all showing braindead soft-porn sh*te. Lansley is another one: choice in the health services available to all. Bollocks: the choice is between having money and getting some service, or the opposite of that.
Angela Merkel, however, has topped everyone for utterly crass, inflexible neo-Nazi hypocrisy this weekend. This is a direct quote from a speech she made yesterday:
“What we have always said is that we want Greece to remain a member of the eurozone. The precondition for that to succeed is that the future Greek government sticks to the memorandum that was agreed with the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and the European Commission.”
Or, put another way:
“In order to stay in the eurozone you must freeze all your old people, make everyone unemployed, empty the hospital budgets, bad-debt the pharmacies, and starve all the mental patients”.
Personally, I wouldn’t give the Sprout-Kraut axis of granite stupidity four plastic buttons with no holes in to be in the eurozone, let alone stay there. What is it about our materialistic West these days that even the emptiest threat involving money-loss is enough to convince people to join a dying empire busy shooting itself in every important body part?
One is reminded about the PoW camp joke, when the Kommandant announces to the chaps that “Today izz ze fuhrer’s Birssday, zo every man vill haff a change of clothes. Hut 29 vill change clothes vizz Hut  42….”
Just to reiterate for one last time before moving on from this mercifully brief visit to Bedlam: the Greek elite borrowed too much and embezzled a fair proportion of the money; both the ECB and US banks hard-sold them those loans at cheap rates; the French and Germans sold the Greeks €165bn of arms they did not need, insisted they stick to the purchase, and sprayed corrupt backhanders everywhere in order to speed the deal through; Goldman Sachs were paid by the Greek elite to teach them how to cheat Brussels; the French and Germans bottled on the original highly unwise decision to let the ClubMeds into the euro, because they were in love with their poxy toytown currency; the austerity ‘strategy’ is killing every economy to which it has been applied; and the Spaniards have been just as lax (and mendacious), but they will face few if any of the punishments shouldered by Greece.
The people of Greece are being bullied by Sprout cowards, blamed by neurotic Kraut tabloids, lectured by the French whose banks lent money more recklessly than anyone else – and punished both for the dishonesty of their own politicians, and megalomania of the Franco-German europhile madhouse.
But nil desperandum fellow Island Racers, because Big Brother Scameron is going to protect us from the ickid-wicked nasty smelly bogey men he is so and he’s bigger than Mrs Merkel and he will bash her up and he will become our hero and then we will all eat cake for ever and ever we will too because my mum told me so.
and  we can see that John's Ward's story at The Slog must have hit home ( note his original post has gone bye bye from his own blog ... ) 

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/odd-goings-on-at-the-slog-the-disappearing-angela-of-death/#comment-63138

and....

Odd goings on at The Slog: the disappearing Angela of Death.


I don’t know why, but my piece of this morning ‘Merkel the Merciful offers Athens a clear choice’ has disappeared.
The piece attracted an enormous (and vitriolic) comment thread. It also evoked four highly suspicious comments, all from joke email addresses and all pro-EU.
Just in case anyone is harbouring the deluded thought that I took this piece down, forget it. But it has disappeared entirely, and I am on the case of working out how and why.
If anyone captured the piece or can still see it on their browser, please let me know urgently on jawslog@gmail.com
and....





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-how-will-spanish-bailout-deal-effect-greek-elections


Guest Post: How Will A Spanish Bailout Deal Effect The Greek Elections ?

Tyler Durden's picture





Submitted by The Needle Blog
How will a Spanish Bailout Deal Effect the Greek Elections ?

Alexis Tsipras, the big winner of the Spainish Bailout Negotiations ?
Spain is holding out for a better bailout deal.
Spanish banks need an estimated  €40 billion but will likely need much more than that.  (see definition of ‘recipriversexcluson’) The ECB wants to lend the money to Spain so that it can then bailout it’s own banks but Spain wants the ECB to lend the money directly to the Spanish banks, in this way the ‘loan’ is not a Spanish sovereign liability but a liability of the banks themselves. The ECB, correctly, perceive that those Spanish banks don’t have an assured future even with a bailout, whereas, the country of Spain is unlikely to disappear from the map of Europe anytime soon, and they have a better chance of getting their money bank from Spain than if they bailed out the banks directly.
This issue is at the heart of the negotiations which have taken place over the last week and look set to be concluded by teleconference this afternoon. I’ve written above that it’s the ECB negotiating with Spain but in reality it’s Germany and some other Northern Eurozone countries who are driving the ECB position.
The final result will be a fudge, which is  unbelievable considering that the two positions seem irreconcilable, but as both sides seems to be pursuing a negotiating position based on M.A.D (Mutually Assured Depression) and neither side can afford to back down, so a fudge it must be.
All this wrangling appears rather interesting if you happen to be a Greek trying to decide who to vote for in the upcoming Greek election.
If the Spanish cave in to the ECB position then this would strengthen the hand of the mainstream pro-bailout Greek parties, Pasok and New Democracy, whereas, any compromise or ‘better deal’ for Spain than Greece got, will strengthen the hand of anti-bailout party Syriza.
The Spanish government are, in effect, taking a similar negotiating postion to the one Syriza are proposing to take if they get a majority in the Greek election next week and if the ECB compromise the message to the Greek electorate will be loud and clear, ‘there is room for negotiation on the established Greek Bailout package’ , something which Syriza have always claimed but which Pasok and New Democracy have always dismissed.

Under those circumstances, who would you vote for ?

This next week will be another interesting one. Fast forward and imagine that a Spanish/ECB compromise has already been announced. If the Troika maintain their current position on Greece then Syriza look bound to win in a week’s time. As the Troika don’t want this they will need to offer some kind of bailout negotiation to Greece with some prospect of compromise, they may even hint that Pasok and New Democracy are in a better position to secure any compromise.

Will this work ?

I doubt it, but it is the only chance the Troika have of avoiding a Syriza rout.

I suspect history will record that the moment that the Spanish bank bailout compromise was announced, was the moment that a Syriza win in the second Greek election became certain, and they will have a mandate to negotiate in the same manner as the Spanish government have.


and.....

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/56178


ND and Syriza continue to clash
9 Jun 2012
The two parties leading the race for parliament, continued their war of words with elections looming. (file photo)
The two parties leading the race for parliament, continued their war of words with elections looming. (file photo)

Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) president Alexis Tsipras, speaking to employees of the Perama shipbuilding zone on Friday, stressed that the June 17 elections will be the most crucial that the country has ever had, while expressing optimism that "on the 17th they will stop writing memorandums and our people shall write history."
Referring to the problems in the shipbuilding zone, Tsipras placed the responsibility on the governments of Pasok and New Democracy (ND) and pointed out that in the upcoming elections "the dilemma is either Syriza or social disaster."
Tsipras further said that "chaos will be coming as of the 18th if (ND leader Antonis) Samaras and (Pasok leader Evangelos) Venizelos continue to be in the country's government, giving power to the troika, the bankers, to those who gave them billions all these years, to big capital to continue its unaccountability," while stating that he is "fully aware of the difficulties".
New Democracy lost no time in reacting and blamed Syriza of leading the country out of the Schengen Agreement.
ND spokesman Yiannis Mihelakis stressed that the announcements made by Syriza that it intends to supply illegal migrants with travel documents – police identity cards and passports – in essence, threaten the free movement of Greek citizens in the EU because the country will be led out of the Schengen Agreement.
Mihelakis made the comment referring to the EU interior ministers’ decision up for ratification in the European Parliament, according to which, in extraordinary circumstances the Council of Ministers will have the authority to decide with a majority vote to close the borders of the Schengen Agreement countries for a period of 6 to 24 months.
According to Mihelakis, such discussions are already underway in Brussels.
He stressed that “ND will declare a war on unregistered migration,” adding that “Syriza and its leader promise to make the country a magnet for unregistered migrants by legitimizing them and even paying them unemployment benefits.” (AMNA)

No comments:

Post a Comment