Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Greece political concerns - Missive from Mish on Greece and news items of the day

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/greek-voters-need-to-look-beyond-lies.html


Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:14 AM


Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond the Lies of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?


A half-baked editorial on Bloomberg, full of one-sided distortion, warnsGreek Voters Need to Look Beyond Syriza’s Dangerous Lies.
 Tsipras and his Syriza party are selling the Greek people a falsehood: namely, that Greece can renounce the terms of its bailout agreements with the euro-area governments and still receive their money. If voters believe him, and he attracts enough votes in elections on June 17 to follow through with his threats, then his country, Europe and the global economy will live for years with the consequences.
Tsipras hardly has a mandate -- he won 16.8 percent of the vote on May 6, and may increase that to 20 percent or more in June. But polls suggest Syriza is now fighting for first place with the center-right New Democracy party. In Greece, that matters, because the top party gets an extra 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

Europe’s politicians, across the political spectrum, need to make clear the distinction between Syriza and other parties that disagree with Europe’s austerity strategy. They need to say, repeatedly, that they want to help Greece, but they cannot, and it cannot remain in the euro, if its leaders simply abandon the commitments the country signed.

Greeks need to know that when they vote on June 17. And they need to know that what Syriza and its young leader are telling them is a lie.
Snakeoil vs. Lies

It's certainly true that it is highly unlikely for Greece to stay in the eurozone if it defaults on debt.

I am not a fan of lies (and I have pointed out lies by Tsipras). However, I am not a fan of snakeoil, thievery, and one-sided analysis either.Snake Oil and One-Sided Analysis 

Check out the Bloomberg hypocrisy in this statement: "Other Greek politicians say they’ll seek to renegotiate the austerity package, and Europe may now listen."

Bloomberg knows full well those are blatant lies. Bloomberg could have and should have blasted the New Democrats and Pasok leaders for those lies (but chose not to).

Moreover, Bloomberg knows full well nearly all of Greece is dead set against more austerity measures. Bloomberg also knows full well if New Democracy and Pasok came flat out and said the deal will not be renegotiated they would be trounced to smithereens in the next election.

Bloomberg Hypocrisy

Bloombeg ignores the lies of Pasok and New Democracy while blasting a similar lie made by Syriza.

In essence Bloomberg wants to decide which set of lies is acceptable and which isn't.

In contrast, I have pointed out the lies made by all of them.

If Not Now When?Merkel, the IMF, the ECB, and all the eurocrats in Brussels know another election is coming up. If terms of the bailout were to be renegotiated ever, logic would dictate now is the time.

Are we supposed to believe there will be a significant change of heart in Germany and Brussels after another Troika-clown is Prime Minister?

The rest of Europe is not doing anything to help Greek.

Lending Greece money in which most of the money goes straight back to the lenders to pay interest is not going to help Greece. Nor are hikes in the VAT and other taxes.

Certainly the Pact With the Devil Over Gold is not in Greece's best interest.

Simply put, Tsipras is correct in his desire to tell the Troika to go to hell. The rest of his message it is clearly a lie, but at least Tsipras has the essential idea: The only way Greece can get out of its odious debt is to default.

Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand? 

The Greek website Ekathimerini is on a major fearmongering campaign as evidenced by Nightmare foretold if Greece heads for euro exit

 In Athens, the homeless are on the streets in growing numbers, soup kitchens feed twice as many people as a year ago, and the poor are diving into garbage bins in search of scrap they can sell.

Greece is close to breaking point as it struggles with austerity targets set by creditors, but this is just a foretaste of the nightmare of unrest, hunger and even anarchy that could engulf the debt-crippled nation if it is forced out of the euro.

If the exact economic impact of such a move is hard to nail down - newly issued drachmas devalued by up to 70 percent, runaway inflation, a banking meltdown, a collapse in trade - the implications for ordinary Greeks crushed by the debt crisis are even harder to predict.

Without international bailout cash, salaries and pensions would go unpaid and violence, political extremism and uncontrolled emigration could quickly follow.
Dose of Reality

Let's stop right there for a little dose of reality. The first paragraph alone shows Greece is already in a nightmare scenario.

Greece would have been better of defaulting three years ago, two years ago, and last year.Yet here we are with Bloomberg and Ekathimerini (among numerous others) fearmongering about a Greek exit.

They should have been equally adept at raising issues why Greece should not be in the Eurozone in the first place.

Since that is water over the dam already, the pertinent question is what is best for Greece going forward. I propose that another 10 years of austerity and depression is not the answer. I also believe that is what Greece is doomed to if it manages to stay in the eurozone that long.

Fearmongering by Ekathimerini Resumes With Intensity

Let's return now to Ekathimerini for some massive fearmongering.
 Provopoulos warned as long ago as December that a return to the drachma would be «real hell», with Greeks forced to resort to barter during the transition period between the two currencies, «trading a kilo of olive oil for three kilos of flour».

 "NIGHTMARE SCENARIO"

"There will be shortages in basic staples. Without fuel, the army and the police would not be able to move their vehicles.

A former finance minister, Yiannos Papantoniou, saw trouble ahead nearly a year ago: «Greece would not be able to support 11 million people so there will be huge emigration flows,» he told Reuters Insider television last July.
«Disruptions, social disruptions will come. I would say a regime of total anarchy."
What's Best for Greece

Greece needs to do what is best for Greece.

Short-term there will likely be intense breakup pain in Greece if it exits the eurozone. However, if Greece manages its cards correctly, Greece will recover far faster by telling the Troika to go to hell than by living the nightmare for 10 more years.

Icelandic Solution

Greece and Iceland are not the same. Iceland has exports and a work ethic. However, the facts show that Iceland recovered far faster because it had the courage to default, telling eurocrats where to go.

Simply put, Greece has nothing to lose and everything to gain bu exiting the euro, the exact opposite of what Bloomberg and most of mainstream media would have you believe.

and....

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/55649

News bites @ 10
by Damian Mac Con Uladh22 May 2012
Greece's Eleftheria Eleftheriou performs during rehearsals for the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest in Baku, Azerbaijan, 21 May 2012
Greece's Eleftheria Eleftheriou performs during rehearsals for the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest in Baku, Azerbaijan, 21 May 2012
1. DORA RETURNS Dora Bakoyannis officiallyannounced her return to the New Democracy fold on Monday, in a joint press conference with New Democracy chief Antonis Samaras(see video below). She confirmed that she has suspended her party, Democratic Alliance, certain members of which will now be added to the New Democracy election slate. "Our responsibilities concerning our past but more importantly concerning our future are significant. We must form a front of pro-European powers at this vital time", Bakoyannis said. "We have called for a big patriotic front to unite all citizens who will not let the country surrender to populism and be led to bankruptcy, international isolation and be forced to exit Europe," New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said. Meanwhile, Samaras announced that the party will hold a national convention on Saturday to launch the election campaign and for form a “united front”. Later, Samaras welcomed two former Laos MPs - Thanos Plevris and Yiorgos Apostolakis - into his party.
 
2. TSIPRAS IN PARIS Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) leader Alexis Tsipras, speaking from Paris on Monday, said that the "policy of harsh austerity imposed by the memorandum is leading Greece to financial collapse and to a possible exit from the eurozone". His party was struggling for social coherence in Europe, which is essential for European integration. He added that if his party wins the June 17 elections, it will fight for the formation of a leftwing government. Appearing alongside French leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Tsipras said: “Thanks to the existence of this strong leftist force François Holland knows that he cannot renege on his promises so easily. Because if he does so, he’ll become Hollandreou and start down the path that led to what we see happening now in Greece.” The Syriza leader will visit Berlin on Tuesday, where he will meet with leaders of the German Left party.
3. GUERO How do resolve the conundrum resulting from a) Greeks not wanting to leave the euro, b) not wanting to continue with the troika bailout programmes and c) the rest of the eurozone not wanting to see a Greek exit from the currency because of the potential for other countries? Well, a senior analyst at the Deutsche Bank is proposing a dual currency, the guero, to be used in most domestic transactions. For the purchase of essential imports, Geuros would have to be exchanged against euros, most likely at a hefty discount of 50 percent or more
 
4. EUROBONDS Issuing eurobonds could potentially form part of the answer to the crisis but would require closer coordination of fiscal policy in the eurozone, European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters on Monday. "Any form of common debt issuance requires a closer coordination of fiscal policies and moving toward a fiscal union, it is a prerequisite," Altafaj, the spokesman for EU Economy and Financial Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, said, noting that the course to fiscal convergence was not yet complete. Meanwhile, Germany and France clashed ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit as their divisions deepened over the hotly contested question of jointly issued eurobonds. Hours after Berlin rejected French demands to put eurobonds on the summit agenda, French finance minister Pierre Moscovici reiterated that the proposal was a “strong idea” and would be on the table in Brussels.
 
5. OBAMA'S FOUR POINTS US President Barack Obama urged Europe on Monday to strengthen its defences against financial market turmoil and recapitalise its banks as part of a four-pronged strategy for tackling the eurozone crisis. Obama's remarks point to a four-pronged approach that would encompass financial, economic, fiscal and monetary measures to address the eurozone crisis that he said were embraced by leaders who attended a G8 summit in Maryland and the Nato sessions in his home town of Chicago. "We've got to put in place firewalls that ensure that countries outside of Greece that are doing the right thing aren't harmed just because markets are skittish and nervous," Obama said.
 
6. DEBT SLASHED Following the debt haircut (or public-sector involvement, PSI) earlier this year, the central government debt was slashed to 280.3bn euros at the end of March 2012, down from 367.9bn euros of December 2011, the General Accounting Office (GLK) announced on Monday. At the end of March, the country's available reserves were 4.4bn euros, up from 3.6bn euro in December. In the wake of PSI, 76.7 percent of the public debt consists of loans from the European Financial Stability Fund, 3.4 percent of loans from the IMF and 19.9 percent of interest-bearing bonds. About 80.1 percent of this debt matures after five years.
 
7. HUMANITARIAN CONFERENCE In a show of solidarity with the country, the Doctors of the World (Medecins du monde) is holding its the international conference in Greece on May 24-26. Representatives from 14 countries will attend. Among issues to be discussed is access to healthcare in the times of new poverty.
 
8. ATHENS FESTIVAL The Athens and Epidaurus Festival 2012 opens on June 8, with the world-famous Venice Baroque Orchestra and Switzerland’s Zimmermann & de Perrot. Advance booking for the two productions began on Monday. The Venice Baroque Orchestra will perform Pietro Metastasio’s libretto for L’Olimpiade, a hymn to the Olympic spirit, conducted by Markellos Chrysikopoulos. The Swiss duo Zimmermann & de Perrot will be returning to Athens with their newest creation, Hans was Heiri.
9. PUBLISHER GUILTY A first-instance court in Athens on Monday handed down two-year prison sentences, suspended for three years, and a three-year suspension of political rights to publisher Yiorgos Kouris and the director of the Avriani newspaper Yiorgos Tsirogiannis after finding them guilty of slander. The charges, related to a complaint filed by ship owner and Kathimerini publisher Yiannis Alafouzos, concerned an article run by Avriani the previous June, which suggested that a ship owned by the Alafouzos family was involved in smuggling.

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