Sunday, April 22, 2012

The flow of news ( note the IMF complimenting Iran for ending subsidies ) seem to indicate the back channel between the US and Iran is still intact those parties are inclined to pursue that approach..

http://www.debka.com/article/21936/

China steps back from supporting Assad, parts ways with Russia
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 22, 2012, 10:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  China   Bashar Assad   US-Syria   oil embargo 
Beijing has decided to distance itself from the Assad regime of Syria. Notice of this policy shift came about in a secret exchange of messages with the Obama administration, revealed here exclusively byDEBKAfile’s Washington sources. The latest message received in the latter half of last week said: China will no longer be a problem for America in dealing with Assad. That leaves only Russia.
This change of face surfaced at the UN Security Council on Saturday, April 21, when after voting for another 300 observers for Syria, the Chinese delegate Li Baodong made an unusual speech:
“We also call upon the international community to continue its firm support for Mr. Annan’s good offices’ efforts and consolidate the results achieved, and we strongly oppose any word and act aimed at creating difficulties for Mr. Annan’s good offices.”
Li went on to say: “China always maintained that the independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Syria as well as the choice and the will of the Syrian people should be respected.”
Western sources stress that, with this speech, the Chinese ambassador stepped aside from Russia’s uncompromising backing for the Syrian ruler. Moscow remained the only world power acting to limit the UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s powers and the effectiveness of the UN monitors by denying them proper equipment and authority for overseeing an end to the violence in Syria.The shift in Chinese policy was noted by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan on April 10 when, after visiting Beijing, he remarked: “China is not in the same position as it was before. It is shifting away from full support for Assad’s regime.”
DEBKAfile’s Washington sources believe that the Obama administration can count this change of face as a return on its policy of nuclear appeasement of - and rapprochement with - Tehran.
A senior US official said that what concerns Beijing most is the US oil embargo on Iran and its effect on the Chinese economy. Now that the Chinese see signs of a possible loosening up of sanctions especially in relation to Iranian oil exports in the wake of evolving US-Iranian deals, they are breathing a deep sigh of relief and prepared to be more accommodating to the US in its policy on Syria.
The approaching easing of sanctions against Iranian oil was signaled Saturday, April 21, by an announcement in Tehran that new purchasing contracts for the whole of 2012 had come in from the Asian refineries which were in trade relations with Iran.
Beijing is reported by our sources as having turned down an appeal from the Assad regime to purchase tens of billons of dollars worth of Syrian government bonds to tide it over its economic distress for the duration of the war. Last week, Assad was revealed to be so cash-strapped as to start dipping into the national gold reserves held in the Syrian state bank and selling the precious metal on financial markets in Dubai.
China’s defection will not immediately bring Bashar Assad crashing down, but it is a vote of no-confidence by a key world power in his survivability. It leaves Tehran and Moscow as the only props of his regime and may well inspire second thoughts in either or both of his champions.

and...

Asian, African refiners extend oil deals with Iran for 2012
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c_330_235_16777215_0___images_stories_apr02_22_04_01.jpgTEHRAN - All Asian and African refiners that buy oil from Iran extended their contacts in 2012, according to the National Iranian Oil Company’s director for international affairs.
 
“There is no problem is selling and exporting crude oil,” Mohsen Qamsari told the Mehr News Agency.
 
Qamsari rejected rumors about Iran stopping oil export to Malaysia, saying that the Asian country imports some 14,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Iran.
 
“A certain refiner, for example in Japan, may have reduced oil imports from Iran, but another refiner in the same country has signed a new deal to raise imports,” Qamsari added.
 
Oil minister Rostam Qasemi on Thursday raised the prospect of more cutoffs in oil sales to the European Union if the bloc failed to show some flexibility toward Iran ahead of a second round of nuclear talks next month.
 
Qasemi said that while Iran has cut sales to Britain and France, it continues selling crude to "other countries" in the world.
 
A senior European Union official said on Friday that the EU member states may review in the next two months an embargo on Iranian oil imports that is scheduled to take effect on July 1, Reuters reported.
 
EU member states had agreed to review the embargo plan as soon as this month because of concerns over its potential impact on global crude oil prices and the difficulty countries such as Greece face in finding alternative supplies.
The bloc imported some 18 percent of Iran’s 2.2 million-barrel-a-day production.

and.....

IMF urges world states to follow Iran in implementing subsidy reforms
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Chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde praised Iranian subsidy-cuts plan, and described it as a brave move which should be followed by other countries.
 
Lagarde made the remarks in the joint meeting of the World Bank and the IMF.
 
She referred to Iran's measures in reforming its subsidiary system in the past two years as exceptional, and called on other world countries to follow the role model of Iran in carrying out reforms.
 
Referring to the economic crisis now engulfing the world, the IMF chief believed carrying out reforms in the existing economic structures is a solution to the problem.
 
Paying targeted subsides is one of the most important ways to that end, Lagarde said.
 
On December 19, 2011, Iran began a long-awaited subsidy reforms plan after months of speculation regarding the timing or degree of the subsidy cuts.
 
The plan included subsidy cuts on energy prices, including the heavily subsidized gasoline prices.
 
The price of heavily subsidized gasoline (for the first 60 liters purchased by each motorist per month) was increased to 4,000 rials ($0.40) per liter, from 1,000 rials ($0.10) per liter, and all gasoline purchased above the monthly quota was priced at 7,000 rials ($0.70) per liter going forward.
 
Ahmadinejad announced at the time that the launch of his economic reform plan is aimed at overhauling the country's economy by phasing out energy and food subsidies.
 
Under the plan all subsidies are to be gradually removed during a five-year period.
 
The subsidy cuts (also known as targeted subsidies) plan - encompassing key consumer goods such as gasoline, natural gas, and food - is said to be one of the most important undertakings in Iran's recent economic history.
Ahmadinejad has also vowed that the Iranian government would tackle economic problems such as housing, unemployment and improve the banking system through his economic reforms plan.
 
According to the president, the initiative would lead to a better distribution of wealth among the public.
 
Officials say energy subsidies have cost the Iranian government around 100 billion dollars.
 
Analysts say that the plan is in line with recommendations from global financial organizations which advised Iran to get rid of a heavily subsidized economy if it wanted to boost its economic power. IMF chief hails reforms in Iranian economy
Iran’s Minister of Commerce and Finance Shamseddin Hosseini is taking part in the joint meeting which is held here with participation of representatives from 187 countries.

and...

Saudi Arabia cannot fill oil gap for long
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Reuters cited Mr Rostam Qasemi oil minister of Iran as saying that Saudi Arabia will not be able to replace Iranian oil supplies in the long run, in case of shortfalls due to sanctions against Iran.
 
Mr Ali Al Naimi oil minister of Saudi Arabia said that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was determined to bring down high oil prices, reiterating there were no supply shortages in the global markets and the kingdom stood ready to use its spare production capacity if necessary.
 
Mr Qasemi said that "The level at which Saudi Arabia is producing at the moment, I think that's a maximum. If it wants to produce any further it may be on a temporary basis in the long run that cannot last.”
 
Concern of a supply shortage due to production problems in some producing countries as US and European sanctions target exports from OPEC's second largest producer Iran have helped lift Brent crude by about 13% this year.
 
He added that there had been no drop in production of Iranian crude despite unilateral sanctions by the EU and the United States. Iran's crude is of high quality and will always have its own customers.
 
(Source: Reuters)

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