Sunday, September 3, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views....September 3 , 2017 - Key Matters For Sunday -1) North Korea Crisis - In A Frantic Past 14 Hours This Has Happened : North Korea : Announced And Displayed Its New H-Bomb ; North Korea Then Conducted Its 6th Nuclear Test Of The H Bomb That Will Alleged Accompany Its ICBM Recently Tested ; US -SK Announce Military Action To Be Taken Against NK AS Early As Possible , While Russia & China Condemn Test , Japan & US Leaders Talk About Problems At Hand. 2) US Politics - US Response To North Korea Pondered , Hurricane/ Tropical Storm Harvey Updates , Additional Items To Consider Today. 3) Europe - Key Items From UK , Germany , France & Spain. 4) Odds & Ends !


North Korea....



H-Bomb Nuclear Test....




All options on the table as per POTUS this evening....






Readout of today's call between and .






and allies call for emergency UNSC meeting tomorrow in response to 's latest nuclear test.




South Korean military hold live firing exercise on Eastern coast




SOUTH KOREA MILITARY HELD BALLISTIC MISSILE DRILL TARGETING N. KOREA NUCLEAR TEST SITE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTH KOREA NUKE TEST: YONHAP






China monitoring radiation Sunday....





*pats back*







environmental agency activated "contingency plan" for explosion, went to lvl 2 emergency.




PUTIN STILL DOESN'T PLAN TO DIRECTLY CONTACT NORTH KOREAN LEADER TO DISCUSS CURRENT SITUATION - KREMLIN: IFX




PUTIN CALLS FOR EXCLUSIVELY POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC SETTLEMENT OF NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROBLEM IN PHONE CONVERSATION WITH ABE - PESKOV




Yep. KCNA is propaganda that contains an uncomfortably high number of technical claims that eventually check out.





Quick pts on DPRK test: 1.They do what they say 2.We knew it was coming and would be big 3.Political effects bigger 4.Tests will continue





Another phone call from POTUS to Japan PM away to start. Both spoke earlier today according to BBC News World.






US & SK agree to take military measures against NK " as early as possible".





Locals on the Chinese side of the North Korean border respond to by taking selfies with inflatable dinosaur






My thoughts on the situation the world faces within the last 12hours





.@narangviping on huge North Korean nuclear device: “You don't want this thing anywhere near a city near you.”






1 hour ago
North Korea’s latest nuclear device “capable of destroying substantial parts of large modern cities” --






1 hour ago
North Korean TV broadcast these photos of Kim Jong Un meeting with his top aides, signing the order for Sunday's nuclear test






Replying to 
Russia warns of 'serious consequences' to North Korea over nuclear test.





BBC: Japan's NHK says PM Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump have spoken on the phone for about 20 minutes




Replying to  
. issues a press release on 's sixth nuclear test today.





Replying to 
The nuclear device that North Korea tested today was almost eight times the size of the American atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima





Don't do this. Seriously.





(URGENT) North Korean artificial quake 9.8 times more powerful than fifth nuclear test: Seoul weather agency




For deterrence purposes, DPRK just crossed a huge milestone: staged or not, true TN or boosted, these are city-buster yields for ICBM





Reuters: N.KOREA SAYS LEADER KIM ORDERED TEST OF HYDROGEN BOMB INTENDED FOR MOUNTING ON ICBM - N.KOREA TV




North Korea has claimed to detonate a Hydrogen bomb......







H-Bomb Displayed Hours Before Test...



Replying to 
Bottom line: DPRK should be able to conduct a (probably successful) test of staged thermonuclear design. And they probably will next week.





Replying to 
Sidenote: If we assume plugins include for external neutron initiator, fission primary being > diameter than 2dry is worryingly accurate?





North Korea has developed a hydrogen bomb which can be mounted on a new intercontinental ballistic missile-as per Pyongyang's state media.




US Politics....


Debt ceiling....



Mnuchin's gambit to link the the importance of raising the debt ceiling to the hurricane aid in an effort to coax GOPers to vote yea.





Congress will struggle to find votes to raise the debt limit this month. Mnuchin is using tying hurricane $ to debt likit hike as a wedge




Mnuchin on Fox: If Congress appropriates.$ but I don’t have..ability to borrow..we are not going to be able to get that $ to the state


Harvey....


Sunday, Sept. 3, President Trump has proclaimed today as a National Day of Prayer for those impacted by Hurricane Harvey.




BP’s U.S. Headquarters In Houston To Be Closed Indefinitely on Flooding





Today, power was being cut off to homes with water in them in a W. Houston mandatory evacuation zone





'I survived': How 1 woman lived Harvey on social media





Man uses tractor to rescue more than 200 people from floodwaters





flood warning in , Louisiana.



North Korea...



Interesting short thread from Ankit Panda along with Vipin Narang on Mattis comments being subtle version of Trump's "Fire & Fury" remarks.





The Mattis statement was brief, somber and authoritative - especially with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen Joe Dunford at his side.



Secretary Mattis just said something I have never heard before: "We are not seeking the total annihilation of a country, but we have 1/2



2/2 .......many options to do so."



At WH, DefSec Mattis serves notice on North Korea that any threat to US and allies will be met with "a massive military response."




Mattis said the US response to North Korean threat would be both "effective and overwhelming."





Hmm. Nat Sec Adviser HR McMaster and other senior Trump aides are fond of pointing out that 90% of North Korea trade goes through... China.




I will be meeting General Kelly, General Mattis and other military leaders at the White House to discuss North Korea. Thank you.




The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.





1 hour ago
Trump leaving church, asked whether he would attack North Korea: "We'll see."




U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE TILLERSON MAKING CALLS TO COUNTERPARTS IN REGION FOLLOWING NORTH KOREA NEWS: STATE DEPT SPOX





Second call between POTUS and Japan PM Abe today. Military action being discussed ?






POTUS Trump and his national security team will have a meeting today about North Korea





Replying to 
Also, US to prepare new draft sanctions on N.Korea





JUST IN: Trump lashes out at South Korea: I told them North Korea appeasement wouldn't work




Trump to withdraw US from trade deal with South Korea: report





Chinese president after latest North Korean nuclear test: "A dark shadow" hangs over the world




JUST IN: Trump attacks China after latest North Korean nuclear test





1 hour ago
I'm in for this morning. faces the 1st North Korean nuclear test on his watch. That's ahead on




I will be on this morning with to talk North Korea. Most significant national security issue we face.




Europe....



UK




1 hour ago
Wonder where The Times got their info for their report PM May secretly agreed to pay 50 BN pound Brexit Bill ?







The Times reporting Theresa May has secretly agreed to a 50 BN pound Brexit Bill - well , not a secret anymore.





Leavers dismiss Swiss/EU model because requires free movement. But Swiss require work contract, health/accident insurance, financial means.





Bilateral agreements since 1999 has given Switzerland de facto membership with nearly all its privileges/obligations. But not fin. services





It was part of exchange re single market membership v FTA. It did not refer to totality of uk aims in the talks.





Monday morning QBs...





Labour says Brexit stance not a "U-Turn" , therefore it's probably a u-turn...




Boris Johnson condemns NK Nuke Test...




David Davis rebuts Michael Barnier on Brexit Bill...




Germany....



Replying to 




33% think that Merkel was better in the first half of the TV debate, 24% preferred Schulz - first poll shows.






32% think that Merkel won the TV debate, 29% say Schulz was better.






51% thought Martin Schulz was better than expected in Germany's first and only TV debate between the two top candidates.





Final statement of Martin Schulz was much, much stronger than that of Angela Merkel.





1 hour ago
More than two thirds of the TV debate before German elections are over -and it seems that the two top candidates agree on almost everything.




60 out of 90 minutes of the Merkel-Schulz TV debate before German elections were about refugees, Islam, immigration. Two thirds.



Replying to 
In his final statement Schulz commits to taking on Erdogan and Trump.




Replying to 
Merkel concludes: "I want to work with and for you... thank you and I wish you a good evening." [almost word-for-word her 2013 sign-off]




Replying to 
Verdict: Schulz & Merkel did about as well. But it was dull and bloodless. The big questions about Germany's future went unscrutinised.




Replying to 
Who won Germany's TV debate? Mainly the FDP, Left, Greens and AfD.





& go head to head tonight on live TV - most Germans are betting on their chancellor to win






Hello from Berlin where Chancellor Merkel & SPD Challenger Schulz to face off in TV debate, his last chance to land punch 3wks bef elections






Last-chance saloon for Merkel rival Schulz at TV showdown






Turkish foreign minister defiant over arrested Germans





'Blockbuster' WWII bomb to force evacuation of 60,000 in Frankfurt






France......





Macron urges 'very firm' response to North Korea nuclear test







New forest fire rages in southeastern France







French police clash with migrants in Calais






French MP in Macron's party charged over violent clash






15 injured as lightning strikes French music festival





Spain.....




Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull insists on Sunday TV debate show that a new independence referendum will be held on October 1.






Catalan leader says won't accept suspension over independence vote





Trump to host Spanish PM Rajoy at White House







Emergency services tell residents of three towns in Madrid—Humanes, Moraleja and Griñón—to stay indoors after a fire produces a toxic cloud.






La Vanguardia reports separatist parties and government in Catalonia to attempt to pass new referendum law on Wednesday.






Rajoy: "We are going to preserve the unity of Spain, no one should have any doubt about that".





Odds & Ends....



Irma......




Spaghetti models show why NOW is a great time to prepare for *possible* direct impacts from . residents: pay attention.





Last 9 ECMWF forecasts for Hurricane It's spread like ensemble spaghetti exemplifying run-to-run uncertainty.






Here are your latest ensemble runs from both GFS and EURO for
 





Update 18 for Irma , still too far out to form judgments. But this bears watching....







1 hour ago
Last 36 GFS ensemble runs exhibiting a significant shift southwest in 's track, taking the major hurricane closer to Greater Antilles






Latest 11 a.m. AST advisory on shows a strong and dangerous Cat. 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph.






Interests in the Leeward Island should be monitoring the progress of . Here are the latest key messages.





Are you concerned about Hurricane Irma? Here is a good graphic of things you can be doing now to make sure you are prepared.





There is a real possibility that a large, major hurricane either makes landfall or comes very close to the U.S. in about a week





Syria.....




Replying to  
8km away Brigade Base and western pocket,~20 away Airbase pocket





No changes. siege has not been broken yet. SAA units did not enter city or 137th Brigade base.








celebration premature.....







Subject to confirmation - siege may have been broken , SAA may have already reached 137 Mechanized Brigade at Deir Ezzor.






Replying to 







Replying to 
4th Division units sent from Damascus days ago towards Sukhnah is among the few that have entered DeirEzzor






Replying to 
SAA will now launch operations to liberate Sholah and Kabajeb to secure the line and fully remove the siege on DeirEzzor





Replying to 
SAA Tiger Forces have reached the 137th Brigade







ISIS defenses collapsing , SAA rapidly moving toward Deir Ezzor....








Syrian Arab Army captured Kabbajb and Shula - 12 km from Deir ez-Zor Map:





SAA capture Rasm al-Ahmar & Rasm al-Day'ah north-west of Uqayrbat. Liwa al-Quds field commander says Uqayrbat town is liberated







Replying to 
SAA and allies advanced east of Jabal Nirmān and captured Bīr Qusayba, Tarr al-Tarfawi & Qasr al-Tarfawi. Less than 18km until DeirEzzor






| captured Bir Qusaybah and Tar Al-Turayfawi - 17 km to Deir ez-Zor






Replying to 
BREAKING: 's Tigers continue to advance on , 18 km to lift siege.





Syrian Army entered province from north and advances ~6km past Harbishah from south. HD:





Libya....




's Ambassador to says will re-open embassy in soon







Interim Gov't Health Minister Dr. El-Oakley appoints new chairman for 's Cardiac Surgery Center






Three Azeri crewmen freed after 18 months in IS and then Bunyan Marsous detention -