Sunday, April 16, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views ......April 16 , 2017.......Happy Easter For All Who Celebrate The Holiday - News To Consider - 1) Turkey Votes On The Pivotal And Historic Constitutional Amendments Impacting Not Only The Office Of The President But The Political Fabric Of Turkey. 2) North Korea - Military Parade Over , Details On Failed Missile Launch Which North Koreans Seem To Know Far Less About Than The Flower Show Or Water Park .3) France In Focus : Recent Election First Round Polling From BVA , Odoxa & Ipsos ; Election Related Items In The News. 4) Greece - Refugee Crisis , Creditor Talks On hold Until After Easter. 5) UK News Round Up - UK- EU Relations / Brexit Bill , UK Politics . Odds & Ends !

Easter Greeting.......

Easter from Iraq - great thread ( 1- 15 at time of posting ) from Rukmini ! Timely for Easter but relevant message for all.

painting Easter eggs with orphans from the Church of England during the filming of "A Hard Day's Night", London, 25 March 1964


( Much more on Turkey Referendum , including poling inside an outside Turkey , at Twitter  Timeline.)

leader Kiliçdaroglu accuses the Supreme Election Council of not respecting the rule of law by changing rules and regulation on Sunday.

leader Kiliçdaroglu: at least 50% of the population said no the constitutional changes,therefore it cannot become a social contract.

pledges to immediately begin discussions on the issue of the death penalty, putting it to a referendum if necessary.

President :we are expecting states that are our allies to respect the national will in order to fight terrorism.

President : Turkish citizens abroad have suffered a lot, and we know that, but they did not withdraw from democracy

's president: the constitution used to be changed by parliament or through coup, this is first time it comes directly from the people

President :This is very important, supports unity, fraternity and harmony among the citizens of the country. I thank them.

Turkey: Main opposition party CHP (S&D) claims that 'No' won and published results are rigged.

CHP to contest 37% of ballot boxes....

CHP: Elex Council accepted 1.5 million votes w/out seals. We are going to challenge ~ 2.5 million vote

opposes 60 % of the referendum results bcs of unofficial (unstamped) envelops. They say 1 Mill votes irregular

's HDP: Data indicate 3-4ppts of manipulation in vote. (BBG)

Turkey's two main opposition parties say to challenge referendum result



Supreme Election Board says 76% of ballots opened, Yes vote is 50,36%.

Opposition parties CHP and HDP report widespeard irregularities, claim the counting is not over.

Turkish PM Binali Yıldırım to speak at 21.00 local time

unofficial overall results YES: 51.45% NO: 48.55% Ballots opened: 96.92%

(96% in) Yes 51.86% No 48.14% Heartbreakingly close. Rural/urban divide too much for "No" to overcome.

NO votes lead in Turkey's 3 big cities: ISTANBUL 51.6 % ANKARA 50.6 % İZMİR 68.5 % TURKEYWIDE 51.6 % YES, 48.4 % NO

CHP system showing much closer results....and note that is with 84.96 % of the vote.

Results from majority of opposition cities w/big populations are not being disclosed. This is getting really disturbing.

EU28: Support for 's constitutional referendum among Turkish voters in different EU memberstates.

Aye or Nay for the presidential system? For up-to-date results, follow Turkey's key referendum with Daily Sabah

:A historic revolution will take place on Sunday. And when the results are announced...there will be a festival across ,”

LIVE — President Erdoğan: We have faith in the common sense of the Turkish people, results will hopefully show this

Turks and Kurds in go to the polls to vote for the constitutional amendments

Turkey to vote in watershed referendum on presidency

Turkey's Erdogan says 'YES" vote will bring stability to Turkey.

Replying to 
"A 'No' vote will give hope to people of Turkey." Turkish voters tell us what they expect from the referendum:

's co-chair Figen Yuksekdag is in prison, and does not have right to vote

Very high levels of tension and suspicion being reported across the board, even for a Turkish election.

"We are putting 80 million on a bus with no brakes," says Turkish opposition leader

Two people killed in fight that broke out at a polling station in a village in Çermik district of Diyarbakır/Amed.

1 hour ago
Good morning from Berlin where all eyes are on Turkey as Turks vote in historic referendum. Erdogan wants to give Germany a lesson (ChartSF)

As Turkey votes in a landmark referendum on a new constitution, here is a rundown on what would change

North Korea......

Trump closest military advisors tell UK on DPRK: pre-emptive strike is on the table

South Korea condemns failed test , warns of punitive action if there are further provocations - nuclear test or a long-range missile launch.

Notes on the failed missile launch.....

So how does Kim Jong -Un react with a failed missile launch that also is a huge loss of face ?

They start them young

Crowds arriving at flower show just after failed missile launch

At the flower show in

No sign of tensions in despite failed missile launch

So even my minder from the Foreign Ministry says he hasn't heard abt the failed missile test

Great photo by of North Korean soldiers in night-vision goggles during Saturday's parade

North Korea's missile program has problems. But says: “Eventually, they are going to be successful.”

Replying to 
Mattis:“The president and his military team are aware of North Korea’s most recent unsuccessful missile launch. [He] has no further comment”

Here are some North Koreans for you. Important to remember that the people are not the same as the regime.


Candidates % measured by voters declared - Macron : 23% ; Le Pen : 22% ; Fillon : 20% Melénchon : 20%.

France: Margin of Error, Odoxa poll: (FI-LEFT), (LR-EPP), (FN-EPP) and (EM-*) might qualify for 2nd round.

France: Left-wing candidate (FI-LEFT) on the rise (Ipsos polls).

Jean-Luc Melenchon drew tens of thousands to a rally on Sunday , underlining his status as a contender in the French Presidential Election.

1 hour ago
Here's what you need to know about France's upcoming elections:

Opinion: The populist drift of the French election campaign by

The puzzle of Macron.....

Here's what's happening in the French election campaigns

Europhile German president begs France NOT to vote for Marine Le Pen in French election

EU may summon Le Pen for “investigation” right before the election

French elections: from a teacher to a shepherd, underdogs struggle for the voter's ear


Hard knock life.......

Tsipras Defends New Austerity Deal, Says It’s Greece’s “Golden Opportunity”


The EU had €153.7bn of assets in 2015. €41bn is relevant wealth. UK's share might offset part of bill:

If EU plans early retreats from the UK in medicines and banking regulation, would they please do the same in defence.

. makes a comprehensive assessment of assets & liabilities that might factor in the bill:

Tory lead up to 21 points: Con 46% +4, Lab 25% ±0, Lib Dem 11% -1, UKIP 9% -1, Green 4% ±0 for &

British public opinion remains opposed to UK military action in Syria, by 42% to 25% (ComRes/Independent/S Mirror)

Replying to 
Corbyn tells the Indy he is convinced polls will turn around due to popularity of party policy:

Odds & Ends.....

US Politics....

( Original post at 4:08 Am - not much fresh US Politics at that time...)

Trump's tweet-topics from Mar-a-Lago today: --defending his flip-flop on labeling China as a currency manipulator --Easter

Watch how many times McMaster stresses "Chinese leadership" in this interview. Trump strongly believes China needs to influence its neighbor

COMING UP on : With the U.S. on high alert over North Korea, reports on the ground from Seoul.


Good analysis in this thread of developments in and the potential consequences of the ongoing fighting.

Misrata Municipal Council plans legal action against opponents -

Haftar: The political struggle has damaged the military establishment, as well as the lives of citizens.


( For more information on VBIED explosion near of stopped convoy of Kafraya and Foa in Rashdin neighborhood in Aleppo , go to Saturday's blog post.)

12 hours ago
Any mention of Shia victimization is taboo; it is unprogressive, Islamophobic, and it is "disempowering" to Sunnis.

Replying to 
Toll of death by suicide attack against Fua-Kafraya civ at rashtedeen crossing n rebels controlled area r: 95 children 15 women 17 elderly

The United States strongly condemns yesterday's attacks against innocent civilians in northern .

's Foreign Office responds to convoy attack

Decision was made 2completely evacuate Fua & Kfarya cities from ALL 3000 men & militants in a 2d phase. No 1 expected2 remain in the cities.

Gas masks being distributed in E. Damascus on rumors of another chemical weapons attack (via )

Replying to 
N. : whole parts of Al-Lataminah burning tonight after hit by several hateful incendiary raids.

Replying to 
. 55 buses and 8 ambulances from / reached while 73 buses & 20 ambulances from / arrived in .

7- Reports now that at least 100 people died in the attack on evacuees from Shiite villages in North Syria. What a tragedy.

BREAKING: VBIED explosion near of stopped convoy of Kafraya and Foa in Rashdin neighbourhood in .

A witness of today's massacre ( 155 murdered ) gives account of event. English subtitle. Fwiw.