Saturday, December 17, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ...... Weekend Report December 17-18 , 2016 ...... Quick Hits 1) Market Moving News : Banking Turmoil Calms In Europe - Despite Monte dei Paschi Capital & Liquidity Needs & Deutsche Bank Admission Of Lying To Clients Regarding Dark Pool Trades ; Sovereign Bond Pressure Continue As Global Bonds Drop Another 431 BN In Value This Week , Global Stocks Follow Suit Losing 525 BN In Market Value ; China Bond Market & Yuan Turmoil In Late 2016 Setting The Stage For A Potentially Explosive 2017 ; Fed & ECB Speakers From Friday. 2) US Political Updates - Transition Updates , Obama Press Conference ( Full Length Video ) , Electoral College Set For Monday - No Intel Briefing For Electors , "Fake News" News. 3) Europe In Focus - News From Greece , Spain , Italy , Germany , France & Poland. 4) Odds & Ends.



Italy could soon be downgraded by DBRS. Haircut for govt debt as collateral would jump. In Nov, IT banks were borrowing €185bn fromECB (JEF)

Looks like nationalization i going to be a done deal.....

Privatbank about to be nationalized by Ukraine Gov't as soon as Monday ?

Ukrainian government and National Defense and Security Council back nationalization of country’s largest lender Privatbank, Ukrainska Pravda

A small christmas donation for Europe? Monte Paschi’s share offer for institutional investors ends on Dec22, for retail investors on Dec21.

's Draghi said to warn EU rising global rates pose crisis risk.

For Saturday....

Italian banks: Monte Paschi will attempt to sell shares next week

Banking turmoil calms this week across Europe despite Monte dei Paschi cap need drama.

Who else? Deutsche Bank admits misleading clients in dark pool trades. Investors seem not care. Share price rallies.

to place further curbs on insurance purchases in the latest bid to limit capital outflows.

US Yields, Highest Weekly close since...
1-Mo: '08 6-Mo: '08 1-Yr: '08 2-Yr: '09 3-Yr: '10 5-Yr: '11 10-Yr: '14 30-Yr: '15

Bond bubble keeps deflating: Global bonds have lost another $431bn in value this week following hawkish Fed hike & panic in Chinese bond mkt

Good morning from Berlin. Global stocks have lost $525bn in mkt cap this week due to unexpected hawkish Fed hike & fin mkt turmoil in China.

WRAP: Lacker, Bullard both more hawkish than FOMC consensus. Interesting > divergence in Atlanta Fed/NY Fed GDP trackers. Have a good W/E!

Foreign currency deposits in China jumped US$20.4 billion to a record high of US$702.6 billion at the end of November. 1

Mortgages remain the predominant driver of bank lending growth- 70% of November’s nearly 800 billion yuan of loans. 2

Extraordinary large jump in so-called total social financing, which suggests a resurgence in shadow banking activities. 3

Hi ... offshore yuan chart FYI. Fresh record lows

US Politics.....

BREAKING: Trump rips China for seizing Navy drone

China slams US 'hype' over its seizure of naval probe


Trump has two cabinet positions left to fill; check out all the contenders on RCP's tracker

Exxon shifted on climate change under Trump's Secretary of State pick

Video: Obama full press conference from yesterday where he says WikiLeaks 'dominated' US election More: http

In Arizona, electors Bruce Ash and Alberto Gutier say the number of calls, letters and emails are increasing as the vote draws near.

'Cut it out': recalls warning over election cyberattacks

. and agree intervened in presidential election

Irony alert - despite a fairly hefty portion of major media openly supporting HRC - guess who got slimed in part today for HRC defeat ? Lol

NYT-Trump to select Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.) to serve as director of OMB.

DNI say no intelligence briefing for Electors - no shocker , as all of the Reports & Assessments remain classified.

Facebook plans to use The Poynter Institute to flag "fake news" , which is funded George Soros' Open Society Foundations , 1

George W. Bush urges GOP senator to back Tillerson for secretary of State

"David McCormick is a superstar," David Petraeus told . The 2 men had same thesis adviser.



Migration minister eyes 'closed' facilities on islands

Concern grows in Greece over Turkey's intentions

Dombrovskis: Tsipras's move 'unnecessary and unhelpful'

, talk tough punishments for spreading : for

Thousands attend Berlin rally for Aleppo

Eiffel Tower strike extends into holiday season

Remain Campaigners Celebrate The Deaths of Brexit Voters via

Any transitional deal with EU should not diminish Brexit vote: minister

Britain doesn't know what Brexit it wants - Irish Independent

Polish opposition extends parliamentary protest after media access row

Another protest gathers, this time at the Supreme Court building.


Greek Farmers Decide on Roadblocks to Protest Austerity

ESM Chief: Tsipras’ Annouced Benefit Measures Undermine Bailout Objectives

Greece-Creditors Unlikely to Complete Bailout Progran Review Before 2017

Greece Willing to Compromise with Creditors on Program Review Provided it Excludes IMF Demands

Tsipras: We are Determined to Defend the Rights of the Greek People

Berlin gives Tsipras the cold shoulder

Merkel to Tsipras: Only Creditors Will Decide on Greek Bailout

Attica Security Police Dismantle Migrant-Trafficking Ring Operating in Greece, Italy

Catalan parliament speaker in court over secession debate

For sale: Iconic Madrid landmark on the market for €272 million

Germans think that 21% of the German population are Muslims. Truth is that it's only 5%. Numbers for France even more surprising.

US judge 'optimistic' for deal in VW case

Germany arrests Turk for spying on Kurds

Taliban leader tries (and fails) to get asylum in Germany

Italy, Tecné poll: M5S-EFDD: 31% ↑ Renzi-NI: 19% ↑ PD-S&D: 14% ↓ FI-EPP: 13% ↓ Lega-ENF: 12% ↑ FDI/AN-NI: 5% SI-LEFT: 2% AP-EPP: 2%

Italy, Tecné poll: PD-S&D: 30% M5S-EFDD: 30% FI-EPP: 15% Lega-ENF: 12% ↑ FDI/AN-NI: 5% SI-LEFT: 3% ↑ AP-EPP: 3% ↑

Italy, IPR poll: PD-S&D: 30% ↓ M5S-EFDD: 30% ↑ LN-ENF: 13% FI-EPP: 13% ↑ FDI-NI: 5% ↓ SI-LEFT: 4% ↑ NCD/UDC-EPP: 3%

Italy, IPR poll: M5S-EFDD: 30% ↑ Renzi-NI: 21% ↑ PD-S&D: 11% ↓ LN-ENF: 13% FI-EPP: 12% FDI-NI: 5% SI-LEFT: 3%...

Former Italy aerospace boss's corruption sentence suspended

Three more charged over Nice truck attack

What do Parisians think of the pollution nightmare?

One dead after 'deliberate' blaze at Paris migrant centre

Poland, Pollster poll: PiS-ECR: 33% N-ALDE: 21% ↓ PO-EPP: 13% K'15-NI: 12% ↑ SLD-S&D: 8% Razem-LEFT: 7% ↑

Crowds gathered at the presidential palace Saturday morning & marched to parliament. On Friday protesters blockaded the parliament building.

/ protest in from of parliament.

Opposition lawmakers in Poland block parliament to protest media rules

Mass protests in Warsaw and also Krakow , Szczecin & other cities throughout Poland.

Opposition MPs in Poland protest press restrictions-delaying a key Budget vote. It was first protest in the Polish parliament for 10 years.

Odds & Ends....



Multiple buses burned....

FSA criticises armed groups that are preventing evacuations from Fua & Kefraya "they are placing lives of thousands in in danger"

Militants burn buses heading to Fuah & Kfraya in to evacuate Shiite villages. Seems evacuation today fail too

Unknown rebel groups attacked the buses to Kafraya and Foa and burned 3 buses.

Pro-govt media: buses arrive at designated crossing in to begin evacuations

Opposition: first phase of deal -1250 evacuated from Fua & Kefraya and half of those trapped in 1/3

Opposition: second phase of deal - 1250 from Fua & Kefraya and remaining people trapped in 2/3

Opposition: third phase - 1500 evacuated from Fua & Kefraya & 1500 evacuated from Zabadani and Madaya 3/3

Buses enter to resume : state media

Aleppo evacuation: UN Security Council to vote on sending observers by via

NEW MAP: + allies stabilized the frontline after latest offensive at and conducted limited counterattacks.

Idlib Likely to Be Syria's Next Bloody Theater After Aleppo - New York Times World

Great Storify series on the complexities of the politics touching on the Syria Campaign. Worth taking a minute to check out.


Pro-govt media: 25 additional buses & ambulances move from to evacuate wounded, sick & their families from Fua & Kefraya

Ahrar al Sham: "Iranian militias stopped the evacuation until those besieged in Fua & Kefraya are evacuated"

Russia and Turkey are pushing the U.S. out of Syria: Washington is trying to return via proxies v

Foreign Ministers of Turkey, Russia & Iran will meet soon 2discuss Syria squeezing out U.S.

Deal Reached that Could Restart Aleppo Evacuation full art. @

Syrian Rebels, Government Say New Deal Reached to Secure Aleppo Evacuation

DM: evacuation of rebels from has opened new possibilities for cease-fires elsewhere in

Hizbullah media: buses to evacuate civilians from rebel besieged loyalist towns Fua & Kefraya en route from



Military councils of Zintan & Misrata oppose any military action in . Declare support for peaceful solutions.

O.K. now confirmed - GC Khalifa Haftar in Algeria on an official visit. Algeria has always been closer to based authorities.

A foreign warship attacked a vessel carrying weapons - and maybe fighters- from West Libya to Benghazi, forcing it to turn back: army source

- Boat loaded with weapons, ammunition and possibly fighters bound to chased away westward by LNA Navy

UN congratulates Bunyan Marsous on Sirte victory, rebuilding now the priority -

The GNA & its foreign backers benefit from not working with 's parliament. They take control in Tripoli & stay in power indefinitely.


Critics say UN-backed government is not, in fact, enabled, because its constitution (LPA) is in force only if parliament votes yes.

Ageilah Saleh: We need Russia's support in reconstruction and army training.

Kobler in interview w/ : I think there is a consensus .. that the LPA should be kept as framework of the pol process in Libya

Martin Kobler: There was an agreement among participants of the Cairo meeting that a limited amendment to the LPA should be considered

Kobler: They suggested to discuss the question of supreme commandership of the army; the structure of a united Libyan army &chain of command

Kobler: ...and to discuss the structure of the Presidency Council

Kobler: Now one has to fulfil what they agreed on. This is a very good beginning of the process

Kobler: Some want to ...change structure of PC to 1+2 formula. This was LPA Draft4, it already discussed.But then it was decided 2 expand PC

Kobler: The principle is important. If you have a small Presidency Council it's maybe more efficient but it's not inclusive.

Kobler: This is not up to me to decide. I'm always in favor of having a consensus

UN envoy Kobler in after discussing issues with officials in Cairo

Breaking:militia blocking main road to abusleam district in after on off clashes with rival militia.

General Haftar calls for troops to "liberate" Tripoli. Unclear if fighting in parts of the city is related to this

Speaker of 's HoR says (to Sputnik of all places) that parliament will offer soon "a new road map". End of UN-backed LPA?

The Libyan Political Agreement is 1 year old today. How does it work? Find out in quick guide to