Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views....... December 27 , 2016......Quick Hits For Tuesday - 1) Markets : Asia - Economic Data For Wednesday , Market Moving News Primarily From Japan & China ; US & Europe Stocks Drift Along Tuesday , Oil Price Continues To Be Tugged Upward. 2) Europe In Focus : Greece Appeases Creditors With Letter From Finance Minister ; Italy - Latest On MPS Rescue & Bail- In Wrangling ; Odds & Ends From Russia , EUC , Turkey - Eu Deal , Romania & Germany. 3) MENA Watch - Syria & Libya In Focus Today. 4) Odds & Ends.



Economic data due from Japan today

Japan retail sales (November): -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%, prior +2.5%

Japan Industrial production for November(preliminary): +1.5% m/m (expected +1.7%)

Good morning from Berlin. Asia follows Wall St higher w/ Indonesian shares have their biggest 2d gain since Feb. Copper, iron ore buoyant.

CNH plunges to new record low 6.9738 amid CNY Bitcoin shoots up to high new 6,888 Yuan...

PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.9495 (vs. yesterday at 6.9462)

yuan HIBOR 3M +66bps to 8.998% (highest level since Jan)

I cannot find this news in those Chinese financial news.

Banking Regulatory Commission Official: Proposes RRR cut at an "appropriate time"

China aims to cap 2017 total primary energy consumption at close to 2016 levels

Looks like Toshiba's done for the day. Shares limit down -20.5% - biggest drop since the company went public in 1974

That's about a third of company's market value gone since last Christmas

21 minutes ago
Toshiba shares look like to fall by at least 20% if/when these orders match.

US & Europe....

US stocks end the day up. Dow fails to crack 20K again

US Crude oil futures settle at $53.90

...take note this is rising.. and they are exempt from Opec cuts

At 8.8 million barrels a day, US already pumps almost as much crude as two years ago, with just a third of the rigs it operated at the peak

Since May, US drillers added about 200 rigs, taking advantage of rising prices as OPEC began talking up supply cuts

US stocks higher but off high levels at midday

European stocks end the day with modest gains

Europe In Focus .....

Court decision may deprive state of 1 billion euros

Finance minister's letter to creditors appeases concerns

Greek FinMin releases text of letter to lenders to overcome pension bonus row & free up short-term debt relief measures

In letter, govt commits to using future excess surplus on social protection/easing taxes/clear arrears/build cash buffer

letter to institutions confirms pension bonus as one-off & "compensatory measures" will be taken if fiscal target missed

This seems like a replay of Cyprus...

File this statement away..

Note-EG Chief Dijsselbloem's caution that the bail-in of shareholders and junior bondholders must precede state aid.

1/ Why ECB K request for rose from 5bn to 8.8bn? Answers range from regulatory arbitrariness to a deterioration of the bank's situation

2/ My hunch is that the precautionary recapitalisation has a stiffer test as it needs to ensure there is no more need for State money.

3/ ECB is showing that precautionary recap is no walk in the park. This matters as Italy was considering same option for other banks too.

4/ But is threading a thin line - investors will be concerned by the variability of capital demands once they put money in a EZ bank.

Despite some relief after govt recap of Monte Paschi, remains No1 candidate even before . Sentix at 16%.

10y risk spread over slightly shrinks despite Italy govt to invest €6.3bn in troubled lender Monte Paschi, acc to Il Sole.

EUC allegedly looking at tightening capital controls of cash and gold (into and out of EU) , to fight terror.


Russia Warns Any Attempt By Obama To Arm Syrian Rebels Will Be Seen As A "Hostile Act"

Will be interesting to see how Germany handles so called "fake news" phenomenon.

Right-wing president of Romania, from German minority, anti- gay marriage refuses to accept Social Dem Muslim woman as PM. Ugly

Tracing last movements of the Berlin Xmas Market killer..



Areas where (JFS/JAN) and are in TOTAL control will NOT be included in this deal on 's orders. Turkey agreed to this.

Turkey & Russia strike a national cease-fire deal. Terror groups to be excluded. Still needs buy in from Syria Gov't & fighting forces.

Deal to come into effect 12/29. If pact agreed & holds, Syrian government & Opposition will launch peace talks brokered by TUR & RUS.

Now we see whether Erdogan puts up his "proof" , as compared with running off at the mouth.

Apart from aiding YPD , Erdogan claims he has evidence of US aiding ISIS in Syria...

regime demanded to leave SheikhMaksoud neighbourhood and Russian operation room in has YPG convinced to leave.

Last major jihadist pocket in western under attack by Syrian Army: map

Turkey's says his country will not wait for US-led coalition to support their Op. in Syria, pledges to cleanse Al-Bab from ISIS.

Great read & gives valuable insights into different perspectives of Russia , Iran and even Syrian leadership on past & future strategies.

Syrian refugees may become vulnerable to radicalisation once in Europe & be specifically targeted by Islamic extremist recruiters-Europol.

Russia sending "specialists" to Syria-mission unstated-but whomever put "hit" on Russian Ambassador-you're on notice

Source in RU diplomatic cirlces confirms ,, /n opposition groups currently in trying to set ceasefire parameters


Abderrazaq al-Nadhuri: Reports of Egypt & UAE air force fighting alongside Libyan Army are wrong and intended to downplay Army victories

Abderrazaq al-Nadhuri: Army didnt promise any foreign country to let it establish military bases in Libya, will not sell out nat'l territory

And as the article notes , once again the GNA relegated to the role of spectator.

: said strikes in Jufra targetted anti forces & promises "firm reaction"

Demonstrations on the streets of AlJufra where locals are calling for the Benghazi Defence Shield to leave the City.

As feared, some of the forces that took part in fight against Daesh in are now getting drawn into fight against LNA in Jufrah.

Updated Petroleum Economist map Libya oil/military dispositions. Waddan is key military base in Jufra region targeted today

LNA Cheif of Staff Nadouri: Several brigades have promised to hand over weapons, join army after it enters

LNA Cheif of Staff Nadouri: presence in was due to handing control of city to Ansar al-Sharia

Airstrikes yesterday on Hun. Was staging area for attack on oil ports earlier this month.

Russia warns Haftar is a leading political figure , who is ignored at the peril of the UN Envoy and western powers.

Deputy FM Gennady Gatilov: UN envoy Martin Kobler is biased and the unity government is ineffective

Odds & Ends....

Judge indicts Argentine ex-president Kirchner in corruption case

Tapping the foot , waiting on those Agencies - who have no problem leaking reports anonymously , to respond.

Despite rhetoric-not a single person has gone on record or presented evidence to confirm Russian involvement in DNC or John Podesta hacks.

I think we knew this...

So this happened— Jason Miller has resigned as Trump's Comms Dir. as surrogate AJ Delgado sent tweets like this:


Vera Rubin, pioneering astronomer with revolutionary work on dark matter, dies at age 88.

Donald Trump picks ex-Bush aide Thomas Bossert to be his homeland security adviser via

This chart show who are mostly behind rally in . Chinese flight their capital circumnavigate cap controls as Yuan keeps devaluating.

continues its rally as trading volume on peer-to-peer exchanges broke records. Now shy of $1k mark.

hit fresh life-time high vs Euro as Chinese & Indian investors hoping to evade capital controls & circumnavigate cash restrictions.

Not surprisingly - consider the ongoing campaign to go cashless , India has a campaign to discredit bitcoin.

Militant attacks in the Gulf have been rare, but the rollback of IS in Iraq and Syria, and economic and social issues, point to uncertainty.

A China "house of cards" about to implode in strange circumstances re : Cosun Group ? Curious liquidity problems & fake guarantee documents.