Thursday, November 24, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ..... November 24 , 2016 ....... Quick Hits 1) Thanksgiving Day Here In The - Greetings For Those Who Celebrate Today. 2) Market Moving News : FX - USD , Euro & Yen In Focus : Oil - OPEC & Non Opec Positioning & Statements Before November 30th Meetings ; Turkey - Lira , Central Bank Hikes 50 bps , EP Votes To " Urge " Suspension Ot Turkey Accession To EU , Cyprus , Adana Vehicle Blast Claims 2 , 15 Injured. 3) Europe : Italy In Focus - Referendum On Constitution Reform & Threat Of Euro Referendum From 5 Star Movement ; Bank Bail-In Risk Highlighted ; Germany - Ifo Report ; Greece - Domestic & International Politics In Focus , Creditor Related Matters , Strike Update ; France In Focus - Political Update For Second Round Vote For Right ( Fillon Leads Juppe For Now. ) 3) Odds & Ends - US Political Updates , South Korea , India , Martin Schulz ( Stepping Down As EP President January 2017 ) , "Bigly Wall" Update , Libya In Focus.




Happy Thanksgiving - To All Who Celebrate Today !













Thanks giving Messages - From PEOTUS & POTUS





























Markets Moving News.....




Asia Friday.....




PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.9168 (vs. yesterday at 6.9085)



Gold another big mover ... dumpy




USD/JPY on the move ... higher (above 113.60)




Japan - PPI (services) for October: +0.5% y/y (expected +0.3%)





Japan October CPI 0.1% y/y (expected is 0.0%, prior was -0.5%)





More on oil China - Venezuela joint ventures, Cash to Venezuela, oil to China









Europe Indexes & Bond News.....







UK'S FTSE UP 0.1 PCT; FRANCE'S CAC UP 0.2 PCT







GERMANY'S DAX UP 0.3 PCT; SPAIN'S IBEX UP 0.3 PCT






GAP BETWEEN 10-YEAR FRENCH AND GERMAN GOVT BOND YIELDS AT WIDEST SINCE MARCH 2014 AT AROUND 53 BASIS POINTS - TRADEWEB






FX.....





tumbles towards parity. Drops to $1.0518, lowest in 20months.







BNP ups Dollar forecast in response to Trump victory. Sees most upside vs Yen. Expects Euro to drop to parity by 2017 on CenBank divergence.






Trump makes great again! Dollar rises above ¥113 for first time since Mar2016.







Oil.....





's Economic Commission Board concludes OPEC members should cut production by ~1mbd & nonOPEC by 500kbd. delegate. BBG.







| diplomatic efforts now focusing on ; as problem recedes following PM Abadi's statements. source. BBG.







OPEC headlines becoming a total joke: latest OPEC "request" for a Russia cut is now 300Kbpd, down from 880K and 500K earlier














| Zanganeh wednesday: Ministry plans to increase country’s revenues by raising output of & related products. shana.






With output at its highest in 30 years, is telling a production freeze is its best offer







So Nov. 28 meeting between and non-OPEC countries is becoming the make-or-break of the whole output cut talks





BREAKING: asked non-OPEC to cut output by 880,000 b/d starting Jan. 2017, minister says - more on








| energy minister Novak thurs: global surplus would be at 1mbd until EOY, from 1.8mbd at the beginning of 2016. reuters.







| energy minister Novak thurs: russia is ready to freeze production at current levels. reuters.






| energy minister Novak thurs: working with non- members including & . reuters.





| minister Kachikwu: will reach 2.2mbd by end-Jan after Forcados production resumes. Platts. thnx .







Odds of a credible cut only 50%, SG says. Without a cut, no rebalancing in 2017.






Turkey.....







74 year old Ahmet Türk, prominent pro-Kurdish Mayor of Mardin is arrested. Mr. Turk ıs famous by hıs peaceful rhetoric, politics.







Lira rout deepens despite Trump tightening of Central Bank.







CenBank fails to stabilize Lira with first interest rate hike since Jan2014. TRY falls back again following initial jump.









Turkish Army: 3 Turkish soldiers killed by Syrian airstrikes. Turkish media reports around Al Bab. 24 Nov2015: Turkey shot down Russian jet








CENTRAL BANK RAISES BENCHMARK RATE TO 8% (not expected)








PARLIAMENT URGES SUSPENSION OF ’S MEMBERSHIP TALKS - BBG






Erdogan advisor suggests annexation of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus







Explosion hits Governer's office Turkey's Adana 2 dead 15 injr.








Italy....






Constancio: Italian Yields Still Very Low Even After Rise Due To Concerns About Referendum








'S FIVE STAR LAWMAKER FAVORS : REPUBBLICA








This chart shows why bank bail-in in would be pol suicide. Country stands out w/ high share of dom investors.






ECB's Constancio: Difficult to anticipate impact of referendum. If Italy vote leads to fin shock, to see if must respond (Chart Citi)






Citi on : After Brexit, EU might increasingly struggle to survive w/ a key chaotic partner & debtor w/ a banking industry under stress







Why markets are right to worry about 's referendum.







Germany........





German politician Martin Schulz plans to quit his post as EP chief , appears set to mount a challenge against Chancellor Angela Merkel.








*SCHAEUBLE TO CREATE REGISTRY TO COMBAT MONEY LAUNDERING: PAPER







German govt saved Germany from slipping into recession in Q3 BUT business confidence at highest level since 2014.






German Ifo business climate drops to 110.4 in Nov vs 110.5 exp as Ifo expectations showed slight miss. BUT German Econ upturn remains intact






Greece.....





REGLING: I ASSUME GREECE TO KEEP REFORMING; NO FURTHER PROGRAM - MNI








. will visit Athens on Nov 28-29 and meet with PM, Fin & Econ Mins on Mon and Labour Min on Tue.







Mouzalas blames Chios local authorities, ND over migration issue







Greek public sector workers strike against EU/IMF reforms






PM warns failure of talks with lenders could spark snap polls






France.....






Fear and introspection will stalk France in a crucial election year in 2017






France, LR (EPP) primary, second round, Opinion Way poll: Fillon: 56% (+22) Juppé: 44% (-22)







France: Voters think that is more competent than .






Odds & Ends.....






THIS "Since their defeat on November 8 liberals have been looking for scapegoats to explain how Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump..."









Trump says he's working hard on Thanksgiving to try to get Carrier to stay in the US:







Trump turning away intelligence briefings since victory: report








"Naked and proud: Media tripling down on blatant anti-Trump sentiment"
















's opposition wants to vote on of President in early December







Potential gold-import ban by India could be biggest bombshell since Nixon 'shocked the wor…









Manmohan Singh "I rise to highlight some of the problems that have risen after the decision to demonetise Rs 500 and 1000 currency notes."












Currency ban: Rs 21,000 crore deposited in Jan Dhan accounts, maximum from West Bengal









India's government decision to demonetise currency has particularly hit the poor who survive on cash from daily wage










DJ EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT PRESIDENT MARTIN SCHULZ SAYS HE WILL STAND DOWN IN JANUARY










Mexican Cement Company Offers To Help Trump Build His "Big, Beautiful, Powerful" Border Wall

















In today, discussed way forward in LPA implementation w/ LPD members, Bashaagha, Sawwan & Faqeeh








continues to be under seige. LNA says won't ease seige until DMSC are out of . LNA wants internal uprising against DMSC.







Economic diversification programme backed by EU and France to be launched Monday -








Congratulations to incoming US Ambassador to the UN , daughter of Sikh immigrants from Punjab . Great to have a change !