Sunday, October 2, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views......October 2 , 2016...... Quick hits For Sunday......1) European Bank Woes In Focus . 2) Spain's Political Scene Shifts As Sanchez Shockingly Resigns - Way Paved For Center- Right PP Gov't. 3) Greece Items Of Note. 4) UK In Focus - Article 50 Likely To Be Triggered By March 2017. 5) Turkey In Focus - Now Or Never For Turkey EU Accession And/Or Visa Free Travel , Syria Situation & PKK Concerns , Erdogan Purge Items. 6) Hungary Refugee Referendum - October 2 , 2016 - Background , Related Items & Results Once Available. 7) Odds & Ends.



European Banks.....









Risk gauge from NYU's Stern School Of Business - SYSTEMIC RISK ANALYSIS OF WORLD FINANCIALS ( US$1,197,485 million.)








Talks between Deutsche Bank, DOJ continue but details in flux; no deal yet presented to senior decision makers on either side - Dow Jones









Reuters & Handelsblatt report - DB suffers third recent IT outage "that prevented some customers getting access to their money."








As previously mentioned , no agreed settlement between DB & DoJ - German political commentary critical of proceedings underlines that fact.










Not necessarily true that DB settlement talks haven't begun-they could at point decision-makers are involved. But certainly Friday "settlement near" news seems premature.









German economy minister worried about DB employees






" I did not know if I should laugh or cry that the bank that made speculation a business model is now saying ..."







Bloomberg - Deutsche Bank Set to Clear Hurdle for About 1,000 Job Cuts






Deutsche Bank races against time to reach US settlement.










“They have their hand caught in every single cookie jar. I think the market is seeing a wounded lion and will soon prey on it."-Marco Elser









Just means there will be a need for more twitter rumor settlements , the next time DB swoons below 10 euros a share...


















Twitter being more valuable that DB , gives perspective on how far DB has fallen..









Spain......





EDITORIAL—After another shocking day of PSOE self destruction on Saturday, Rajoy could now move to finish it off.











El Mundo reports tomorrow that the PP is already upping the pressure on the PSOE, to demand more than just support at a confidence vote.








Quoted by of on what the resignation of PSOE leader Sánchez could mean for the formation of the next Spanish government.









Greece.....





Institutions and the incompetent








PM mounts effort to turn tide against gov't in bid for debt relief and QE inclusion







UK......





David Davis reiterates May's pledge: This Conservative government will not roll back workers' rights.








Davis: We will control our borders and we will bring the numbers down.








Davis: Campaign is over. People have spoken. The decision has been made. Our job is to make Brexit work for everyone.






Davis: Our destination is clear. We're going to be a nation that makes for ourselves all decisions that matter most.






PM May's declaration brings welcome clarity on start of Brexit talks. Once Art. 50's triggered, EU27 will engage to safeguard its interests








May: I want new UK-EU relationship to involve free trade in goods and services, cooperation on law enforcement and counterterrorism.







May: It's not going to be a Norwegian or a Swiss model, but an agreement between sovereign, independent UK and the EU.






May: Whether people like it or not, the country voted to leave the EU. That means we're going to leave the EU.






May: There's no such thing as a choice between 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit.








UK wants to keep EU laws on & environment after








NEW - Chris Grayling: ‘Inconceivable’ MPs would block repeal bill to end EU influence over British law









Brexit: UK's PM May to trigger Article 50 by end of March.








Conservative party conference, day one: The Spectator guide









shakes up thriving UK tech sector













5 hours ago
Explaining how the Great Repeal Bill would work by transposing EU law into UK law on Daily Politics last month






The conditions that UK might have to fulfil to access after










UK PM May says will begin process before German election







Turkey........







Erdoğan: Right to sue Saudi Arabia "has the potential to start a dangerous debate on the issue of state sovereignty."








President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday warned that Turkey had reached the "end of the game" over its decades-long EU membership bid.








Erdogan also told Brussels it needed to allow Turks visa-free travel to the bloc by October, as per EU-TUR Refugee Deal.









1 killed, 2 wounded in bomb attack in southeast Turkey














Syria: Turkey sends 1,000 special forces to secure ‘security zone’ across border










As of October 1 at least 92 journos r in jail, at least 2500 journos lost their jobs & 660 press cards cancelled in Turkey









Hungary Referendum....






Orban apparently focusing on voter number (95%) rejecting EU plan including refugee/migrant quotas , rather than turnout # s.








Hungarian invalid. Just 45% participation.








Hungary: invalid as turnout is low (Nézőpont exit poll). Orban's plan to oppose EU's migrant quotas via referendum failed.








Hungary, Nézőpont exit poll: Migrant Quota Referendum I approve (the plan of the EU): 5% Disapprove : 95%









Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout Nézőpont exit poll 7 pm: 42% (required: 50%)







This will be a big surprise , if it comes to pass !









Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout 5.30 pm: 39.88% Requirement to oppose EU's plan: 50% +1 vote + majority of No








Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout 1 pm: 23.56% Requirement to oppose EU's plan: 50% +1 vote + majority of No















Turnout crucial to Hungary referendum result


















The referendum (+ fear campaign) will cost tax payers ~€40,000,000 but can't reverse the EU decision to resettle asylum-seekers in










Hungary’s plebiscite on refugees is a referendum on Europe’s survival.








Odds & Ends....







Fukushima will leak indefinitely 300 tons of radioactive waste into the Pacific Ocean every day , as source of the leak cannot be sealed.








Italy government won't resign whatever outcome of referendum: minister








Austrian Foreign Minister comes put against migration quota, urges the EU to ditch the idea








Schauble calls for Muslims in Germany on Sunday to develop a "German Islam" based on liberalism and tolerance...








.: global number of refugees is up by 30% much can be attributed to war in Syria









State of play for Mosul...








On September 30th , 9/11 widow filed a lawsuit against Saudis (providing material support to al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden.)









Saudi coalition says Houthis pose threat to shipping after attack on UAE vessel






THE SYRIAN ARMY HAS ORDERED ALL THE JIHADIST INSURGENTS TO LEAVE EAST ALEPPO IMMEDIATELY, GUARANTEEING THEM A SAFE PASSAGE AND MEDICAL AID







Trump responds to bombshell report on his taxes











MSM reporting that Sy & Ru airstrikes have destroyed the largest hospital in . As a Syrian from , allow me to correct them:








South Asia Summit Scheduled in Pakistan Postponed, Nepal Says









Aleppo is facing a humanitarian catastrophe








 
After striking the Caribbean early this week, may approach U.S. East Coast mid- to late week. Latest info:









ICYMI: UN casualty figures for (September 2016): 1,003 Iraqis killed; 1,159 injured in acts of terrorism, violence & armed conflict.









IS tactics in include use of landmines, snipers &families as human shields delays full liberation of city + losses climb.









Unconfirmed report: foreign reporter killed in during heavy clashes.









France (accused of contradictory policy on ) hosting international meeting on crisis 2mrw. Egypt, UAE, Qatar & Turkey among invitees









UN envoy 'very concerned' about replacement of elected mayors with military appointees in areas under Hiftar's control









Haftar: We invite UN to review policy dealing w/ , its Mission has complicated issues instead of solving them










LNA likely to make a move on soon, they won't allow oil flow without a plan to capture the capital. Difficult days ahead.







Western and regional foreign ministers due to discuss Libya in Paris on Monday -








UN's GNA (Sarraj) cedes control of Libyan borders in joint operations room with and invites Italian soldiers, spies and drones