Sunday, October 2, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views......October 2 , 2016...... Quick hits For Sunday......1) European Bank Woes In Focus . 2) Spain's Political Scene Shifts As Sanchez Shockingly Resigns - Way Paved For Center- Right PP Gov't. 3) Greece Items Of Note. 4) UK In Focus - Article 50 Likely To Be Triggered By March 2017. 5) Turkey In Focus - Now Or Never For Turkey EU Accession And/Or Visa Free Travel , Syria Situation & PKK Concerns , Erdogan Purge Items. 6) Hungary Refugee Referendum - October 2 , 2016 - Background , Related Items & Results Once Available. 7) Odds & Ends.

European Banks.....

Risk gauge from NYU's Stern School Of Business - SYSTEMIC RISK ANALYSIS OF WORLD FINANCIALS ( US$1,197,485 million.)

Talks between Deutsche Bank, DOJ continue but details in flux; no deal yet presented to senior decision makers on either side - Dow Jones

Reuters & Handelsblatt report - DB suffers third recent IT outage "that prevented some customers getting access to their money."

As previously mentioned , no agreed settlement between DB & DoJ - German political commentary critical of proceedings underlines that fact.

Not necessarily true that DB settlement talks haven't begun-they could at point decision-makers are involved. But certainly Friday "settlement near" news seems premature.

German economy minister worried about DB employees

" I did not know if I should laugh or cry that the bank that made speculation a business model is now saying ..."

Bloomberg - Deutsche Bank Set to Clear Hurdle for About 1,000 Job Cuts

Deutsche Bank races against time to reach US settlement.

“They have their hand caught in every single cookie jar. I think the market is seeing a wounded lion and will soon prey on it."-Marco Elser

Just means there will be a need for more twitter rumor settlements , the next time DB swoons below 10 euros a share...

Twitter being more valuable that DB , gives perspective on how far DB has fallen..


EDITORIAL—After another shocking day of PSOE self destruction on Saturday, Rajoy could now move to finish it off.

El Mundo reports tomorrow that the PP is already upping the pressure on the PSOE, to demand more than just support at a confidence vote.

Quoted by of on what the resignation of PSOE leader Sánchez could mean for the formation of the next Spanish government.


Institutions and the incompetent

PM mounts effort to turn tide against gov't in bid for debt relief and QE inclusion


David Davis reiterates May's pledge: This Conservative government will not roll back workers' rights.

Davis: We will control our borders and we will bring the numbers down.

Davis: Campaign is over. People have spoken. The decision has been made. Our job is to make Brexit work for everyone.

Davis: Our destination is clear. We're going to be a nation that makes for ourselves all decisions that matter most.

PM May's declaration brings welcome clarity on start of Brexit talks. Once Art. 50's triggered, EU27 will engage to safeguard its interests

May: I want new UK-EU relationship to involve free trade in goods and services, cooperation on law enforcement and counterterrorism.

May: It's not going to be a Norwegian or a Swiss model, but an agreement between sovereign, independent UK and the EU.

May: Whether people like it or not, the country voted to leave the EU. That means we're going to leave the EU.

May: There's no such thing as a choice between 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit.

UK wants to keep EU laws on & environment after

NEW - Chris Grayling: ‘Inconceivable’ MPs would block repeal bill to end EU influence over British law

Brexit: UK's PM May to trigger Article 50 by end of March.

Conservative party conference, day one: The Spectator guide

shakes up thriving UK tech sector

5 hours ago
Explaining how the Great Repeal Bill would work by transposing EU law into UK law on Daily Politics last month

The conditions that UK might have to fulfil to access after

UK PM May says will begin process before German election


Erdoğan: Right to sue Saudi Arabia "has the potential to start a dangerous debate on the issue of state sovereignty."

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday warned that Turkey had reached the "end of the game" over its decades-long EU membership bid.

Erdogan also told Brussels it needed to allow Turks visa-free travel to the bloc by October, as per EU-TUR Refugee Deal.

1 killed, 2 wounded in bomb attack in southeast Turkey

Syria: Turkey sends 1,000 special forces to secure ‘security zone’ across border

As of October 1 at least 92 journos r in jail, at least 2500 journos lost their jobs & 660 press cards cancelled in Turkey

Hungary Referendum....

Orban apparently focusing on voter number (95%) rejecting EU plan including refugee/migrant quotas , rather than turnout # s.

Hungarian invalid. Just 45% participation.

Hungary: invalid as turnout is low (Nézőpont exit poll). Orban's plan to oppose EU's migrant quotas via referendum failed.

Hungary, Nézőpont exit poll: Migrant Quota Referendum I approve (the plan of the EU): 5% Disapprove : 95%

Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout Nézőpont exit poll 7 pm: 42% (required: 50%)

This will be a big surprise , if it comes to pass !

Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout 5.30 pm: 39.88% Requirement to oppose EU's plan: 50% +1 vote + majority of No

Hungary, Migrant Quota Referendum: Turnout 1 pm: 23.56% Requirement to oppose EU's plan: 50% +1 vote + majority of No

Turnout crucial to Hungary referendum result

The referendum (+ fear campaign) will cost tax payers ~€40,000,000 but can't reverse the EU decision to resettle asylum-seekers in

Hungary’s plebiscite on refugees is a referendum on Europe’s survival.

Odds & Ends....

Fukushima will leak indefinitely 300 tons of radioactive waste into the Pacific Ocean every day , as source of the leak cannot be sealed.

Italy government won't resign whatever outcome of referendum: minister

Austrian Foreign Minister comes put against migration quota, urges the EU to ditch the idea

Schauble calls for Muslims in Germany on Sunday to develop a "German Islam" based on liberalism and tolerance...

.: global number of refugees is up by 30% much can be attributed to war in Syria

State of play for Mosul...

On September 30th , 9/11 widow filed a lawsuit against Saudis (providing material support to al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden.)

Saudi coalition says Houthis pose threat to shipping after attack on UAE vessel


Trump responds to bombshell report on his taxes

MSM reporting that Sy & Ru airstrikes have destroyed the largest hospital in . As a Syrian from , allow me to correct them:

South Asia Summit Scheduled in Pakistan Postponed, Nepal Says

Aleppo is facing a humanitarian catastrophe

After striking the Caribbean early this week, may approach U.S. East Coast mid- to late week. Latest info:

ICYMI: UN casualty figures for (September 2016): 1,003 Iraqis killed; 1,159 injured in acts of terrorism, violence & armed conflict.

IS tactics in include use of landmines, snipers &families as human shields delays full liberation of city + losses climb.

Unconfirmed report: foreign reporter killed in during heavy clashes.

France (accused of contradictory policy on ) hosting international meeting on crisis 2mrw. Egypt, UAE, Qatar & Turkey among invitees

UN envoy 'very concerned' about replacement of elected mayors with military appointees in areas under Hiftar's control

Haftar: We invite UN to review policy dealing w/ , its Mission has complicated issues instead of solving them

LNA likely to make a move on soon, they won't allow oil flow without a plan to capture the capital. Difficult days ahead.

Western and regional foreign ministers due to discuss Libya in Paris on Monday -

UN's GNA (Sarraj) cedes control of Libyan borders in joint operations room with and invites Italian soldiers, spies and drones