Monday, September 26, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ...... September 26 , 2016..... Quick Hits For Monday - 1) Global Rout For Stocks - US , Europe & Asia Hit Hard ; Meanwhile , Major Bid For Safer Sovereign Bonds ; Oil One Of The Days Few Winners , Despite Unlikely Chance Of Production Freeze - Let Alone Production Cuts By OPEC Later This Week ; Central Banks Comments/ Proposed Actions Of Note ; Key Events For This Frantic Week. 2) Germany's Two Big Banks Floundering - Deutsche Bank & Commerzbank In The Cross-Hairs. 3) Italy Items For Monday. 4) Apart From Italy & Greece , Elsewhere Around European Horn - Greece , Italy , Ukraine , Germany , Turkey & Spain In Focus. ) 5) US Politics - First Debate , JASTA , Political Potpourri. 6) Odds & Ends. .


Global central banks have cut policy rates 667 times since 2008. But G8 economies have grown an average of 1% since

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to its lowest level since Sept. 7

Global govt bond yields fall on haven demand. 10y US yields have sunk to 1.59% after hitting 1.75% earlier in Sep, 10y Bund yields at -0.12%

Today's big winners on the S&P come from the oil sector, led by

The "Nightmare Scenario" For The Bank Of Japan Is Starting To Come True

Pressure mounting on US Banks...

Another potential shot across the bow..


Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

Frontrunning: September 26

Germany's  Big Bank Woes.....

DB troubles is one horror show , but Commerzbank is another one. Both wobbling presently..

As it always should have done.

Deutsche Bank bail-in, break-up and/or merger with Commerzbank much more likely. This would pressure periphery states to stick to EBRD rules

Deutsche Bank in Free Fall. Shares, CoCos Plunge. Merkel Gives Cold Shoulder on Bailout. Bank Denies Everything

DB is running out of time. They need to do something before the end of the week to stop the blood letting...

DB just silently cried somewhere...

Good and we will save that one for posterity...

It’s “unimaginable” that the German government would support Deutsche Bank AG with taxpayers’ money: Hans Michelbach

German government "would lose credibility" if it bailed out DB: Michelbach

Doom loop -words of the day...

FT: London based Hedge Fund Marshall Wace has a €135m short position against Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank 5y sub CDS rises to 500 (impl. default prob 28%). CoCos bid 72, yield 13.32% (pic: )

Speculators go after Deutsche Bank. Looks like ~€200mln of shorts put on over the last week according to Markit, which assumes 3.3% F/F.

The fall of Deutsche Bank in one chart. Shares hit fresh low below 11€ on capital concerns.



It's been taking advice from Bitfinex. Didn't quite get the concept of "tokens", though.

Referendum on Constitutional reforms is due to be held on Dec4th. Outcome is highly uncertain. Polling data show no clear trend.

Renzi's big day set for December 4th..


Doom loop alive as credit risk trade in tandem w/ credit risk of lender Monte dei Paschi.

Elsewhere Around The Horn In Europe...

Winning bidder for TV license fails to make first payment, withdraws from contention

Authorities investigate mystery flyers citing Koran

Major hurdles remain , as well as opposition from key quarters.

Spain still in limbo..

Foxes to inform chickens of coming raids....

's BIST-100 down 4% after Moody's credit rating downgrade to junk.

's 5y default probability rises again as Spanish regional elections fail to break political deadlock.

US Politics

Clown show rules , scandals de jour & odds and ends...

Jill Stein was escorted off debate premises

Does Debate 1 qualify as "September Madness" ? Twitter excitement level rivals start of NCAA basketball tournament.

If they have such a tape , they should release it.

JUST IN: House will vote this week to hold ex-Clinton IT staffer in contempt


Confirmation that latest mass shooter ( an Indian American ) is a postcard from the edge...

So , Wednesday is the big day for the Senate re : JASTA veto override vote. A defining moment for the Senate.

FBI: Clinton aide asked Pagliano for information on “wiping” servers, and not with a cloth

Hmmm , hiding behind investigative agency , while refusing to answer direct question ploy...

What the heck ? Does Mexico assume Hillary is going to bomb tonight ?

It's a big night in the Election....

The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.

Interesting ...

Odds & Ends....

Al Qaeda in commander confirms that the U.S supplied them with TOW missiles

How long before we see serious unrest W/I Saudia Arabia? Lots of Saudis seeing austerity strike them for 1st time.

Yes , Saudi businesses are in a major financial crisis . Look at this stunt by a Saudi firm !

Saudi Banks under pressure. ..

Second hospital now on strike in Saudi's Khobar - Dr Fakhry & Rajhi Hospital - following Saad Specialist Hospital. Both over unpaid wages.

And now we see this alert...

Twitter says it *may* appeal the decision to restrict access to my account. It is highly likely that a Turkish court will uphold the verdict

ISIS prepares for a siege in Mosul, say eyewitnesses in the city. Extremists build trenches, secret tunnels, walls.