Thursday, July 7, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views .... July 7 , 2016...... Quick Hits -- 1. Markets : Quiet Day For US Markets Ahead Of June Employment Report Set For 8:30 AM Friday ; Despite 17 Weeks Of Outflows , S&P 500 Just 2 % Below ALL-Time Highs ; Over Supply Of Gasoline Hitting Crude Oil Prices ; Yen Strength Against Dollar Continues ; Italian Banks Getting Most Of Attention , But Not The Only European Banks In Trouble ; Italy Is Focal Point For Next Crisis In Europe ; US Data Of Note. 2. Slovenia Fights Not Just Its Own Central Bank , But The ECB Regarding On-Going Investigation. 3. UK - Post Brexit News De Jour. 4.Odds & Ends.



Asia Updates......





CHINA SETS YUAN FIXING AT 6.6853 VS 6.6820 DAY EARLIER





JAPAN 10-YEAR LEAD BOND FUTURES RISE TO RECORD 153.70





The 1 day hiatus is over: JAPAN'S 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.35%






Markets.....





17 weeks of outflows = S&P 2% below all time high






Very unusual situation playing out presently. ..







Crude falls , hits US stocks today..







Chart: Oil in free-fall now -







Yen at its highest level since Nov '13 vs. the US Dollar. Fascinating story given BOJ balance sheet growth/neg rates









EU TARP in the making as US banks more resilient? 's Constancio: Need deep reflection on public support on NPLs.







This chart shows why banks are the canary in the coal mine. Performance of bank shares a lead indicator for lending.









DB: is where 3 risks overlap: Econ growth, Unresolved NPL issues, Pol risk. Could precipitate a larger shock.








No-confidence vote for Deutsche Bank. 5y default probability of DB's subordinated debt at 26%, near all-time high.









Looks like separate from Deutsche Bank , some troubles brewing within financial sector -Bremen Landes bank wobbly.








ADP: Construction jobs -5,000; Manufacturing jobs -21,000








Revision To Previous Reading For US ADP Employment Change (May) -Revised To 168K From 173K







employment (172k vs 168k) was better than expected. However, goods-hiring dropped -36k, largest 1m decline since Jan 2010 (-56k)









Slovenia takes on the ECB..



Seems raid occurred after the Central Bank refused to turn over documents requested during the investigation.








Slovenia decided to take its Central Bank to task for failure to cooperate with an investigation.







UK Politics / Post Brexit News /







Today we learned the UK Treasury made no official preparations for Brexit.








Is a serious blow to the UK economy? This former central banker doesn’t think so








And so it begins! Lloyds Bank UK business barometer collapses in June.









Conservative party leadership election, second round result: T. May: 199 A. Leadsom: 84 M. Gove: 46









Aberdeen Property Trust extends suspension on redemptions for 3 more days...









More on property fund woes...









You are right. They called referendum, had all the machinery of the state available, and produced no fall-back plan







UK FOREIGN SECRETARY HAMMOND SAYS GOV NOT CURRENTLY IN POSITION TO BEGIN SUBSTANTIVE NEGOTIATIONS ON BREXIT WITH EU








Amateur games ending , one would hope...









Can Scotland and Northern Ireland somehow stay part of both the UK and the EU?






Odds & Ends....




Gov’t reveals list of debtors as creditors said to object to amnesty








Before people celebrate the decision by EUC to give Parliaments the right to approve or reject CETA-check fineprint









Chart: Swiss 10yr bond yield drops below -0.6% -








Chart: Bitcoin under pressure; down 8%+







 
Payment delays rippling through Puerto Rico: Three hospitals face loss of electricity for late utility bills h/t







Iraqi Security Forces knowingly used dummy bomb detectors for years, including Baghdad.








EU Commission set to start formal process to fine for excessive deficit. 12 July meeting of EU finance ministers will be interesting









Syrian army fire cuts only road into rebel-held Aleppo: rebels








Italy's political situation gets dicier....5 Star Movement leading in polls.