Friday, July 1, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views .... July 1 , 2016...... 1. Markets & Market Moving News : Crude & Energy News ; ECB's Weidmann Comments - No Need For ECB Easing In Response To Brexit , Further Stimulus Counterproductive , More Liquidity Pledged By CBers - if needed ; Fed's Fisher Comments - FOMC Meeting Comments , NIRP Not On The Radar ; Nuggets For S&P Earnings , Bond Yield Crush & VIX Index Crush & More . 2.Brexit & UK Politics De Jour. 3. France In Focus - News Regarding Labor Law Protests Disappearing From Media Cycle , Lagarde Should Face Prosecution Says Prosecutor . 4. Italy In Focus - IItalian Markets Wobbly , Banks Wobbly , Renzi May Be Wobbly Next . 5. Odds & Ends.


Estimated consensus (non-GAAP) S&P500 EPS growth for Q3 and is 0.8% and 7.3% Y/Y.

WTI futs settle up 66c (+1.4%) at $48.99 per barrel

Brent futs settle 64c higher (+1.3%) @ $50.35 per barrel

Baker Hughes US Rig Count 1-Jul: 431 (prev 421)

EXCLUSIVE: Millennium Hedge Fund Hires ’s Top Trader Sutterby via

American Gasoline Demand Isn’t as Strong as Previously Thought via

Buba's Weidmann sees no need for more easing in response to .

Weidmann: Much Will Depend On A Quick And Reasonable Negotiation Regarding UK/EU Relations

Bundesbank’s Weidmann: MonPol Already Very Accommodative, Doubtful Further Action Would Have Any Stimulatory Effect

Weidmann: The ECB And Other Important Central Banks Have Pledged More Liquidity If Needed

So the market is rallying on ECB easing which isn't happening in response to a Brexit which hasn't actually happened

NY Fed Q2 GDP Forecast At 2.1%, Q3 At 2.2% (Previously ‘Slightly Above 2%’)

Fed’s Fischer: Preparing For July FOMC, Watching Markets Closely -Will Have Better View Of Conditions By July - CNBC

Fed's Fischer: No Plans To Move Into Negative Territory - CNBC

Global bond madness: Government bond yields fall to fresh record lows led by UK Gilts.

The Volatility Index is down 42.5% this week, on pace for the largest weekly decline in ... history.

Expect more panic buying episodes....

China , Japan & Europe "Post Brexit " - in focus...

May 2016: euro area unemployment rate 10.1% (Apr 10.2%), EU 8.6% (Apr 8.7%)

Risk rally continues as fears ebb: 's Nikkei ends up 0.7% at 15682.48, up almost 5% for the week.

spreads shrink markedly as said to consider a change in bond-buying rules. Could trash cap key.

JUN CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.6 V 49.2E (16th straight contraction; 4-month low) -

-Manufacturing 50.0 (50.1) -Non-manufacturing 53.7 (53.1)

JPN pension fund GPIF poised for $50 bln FY loss, biggest since 2008. Official results delayed until after elections

Brexit Aftermath & UK Politics ....

Latest Numbers:

Let's see if the referendum petition gets 50,000 signatures...

Noting any referendum , if one occurs , might not be supported by voters...

Labour's Anti-Semitism Inquiry condemned "incendiary" Hitler mentions. Meanwhile...

AUDIO Labour MP: "The Only People Who Have Coloured Skin Are People Who Run Takeaways"

Conservative Leadership Race: Party MP backers May: 77 Crabb: 21 Gove: 18 Leadsom: 17 Fox: 9 Undeclared: 188

Gove: I will honour pledges made during referendum campaign, I will end free movement, I will use budget contribution on NHS

BOE easing: - At least 1 rate cut during summer - Easing banks capital requirements - Restarting QE probably the next shoe to drop

they will use all levers to help growth. not bearish GBP with US rates catching a safe haven bid gbp may bottom here

Now both monetary and fiscal easing as expected

The FTSE 100 is 6.3% higher on the week, on course for its best performance since 2011: A Brecovery

Tory leader election is basically: "Soft Brexit landing by staying in single market" versus "Hard Brexit landing by leaving single market"

Once referendum ball gets in motion , might be hard for politicians to control how voters react..


Regarding possibly using pension funds to bailout -need we ask , what could go wrong ?

Keep your eyes on wobbling Italy...

Italy forced to rescue Vento Banca...keep your eyes on the Italian Banks..

Winds of change blowing for Italy too ?

First intervention by a EU or EZ Gov't into its banking system since the U.K. vote to leave the EU.


Christine should face court over affair says proescutor

Very difficult to find current news , in english language regarding French labor protests and overall situation.

Odds & Ends.....

Austria takes steps to control migration on Balkan route

Greek gov't looking for support of 200/300 MPs for proposed changes to apply immediately, rather than after next general election

4 hours ago
govt publishes election law draft. No bonus seats for biggest party -> proportional representation. 3% threshold, 17-yr olds to vote

Libya's 'unity government' suffers blow as four ministers resign

Oddest part of Puerto Rico default: PR is paying weaker Public Building Authority debt & defaulting on GOs

ICYMI! The Swiss 50-year bond is now NEGATIVE!


Europol data show changing trends in migrant smuggling

AUSTRIA ELECTION - May presidential election void - Vote count irregularities - Far-right candidate Hofer lost narrowly - Re-run Sept/Oct

Bitcoin set to come under siege in France ?

Where is Pedro Sánchez? Five days after the elections, the PSOE leader is keeping very quiet indeed. That is being noticed.

Puerto Rico’s default would be the first from a state-level borrower on G.O debt since Arkansas in 1933.

Fico-"We have to focus on mechanisms that function, not on those that don't function," as per relocation mechanisms.

- 4 GNA cabinet ministers have resigned not 5 as mentioned in my previous tweet - all from Eastern .

Three months after arriving, UN-backed government remains in Tripoli naval base. Eastern (Tobruk) govt. not accepting its authority.