Monday, May 9, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( May 9,2016 ) Overview For Monday ( 1. Markets In Focus - Fed Funds Now Show Rates To Remain Under 1% Perhaps Until April 2019 , S&P 500 Revenue Growth For Q ! 2016 By Sector , S&P Operating Earning Continue Declining Trend , NIRP Daily Eye-Opening News . 2. Greece News Of The Today - Key EuroGroup Meeting Proceeds Well . 3. Turkey - EU Deal Updates And The Latest From Mad Hatter Erdogan. 4. Brazil Political Lunacy Continues - Lower House Annuls Its Proceeding On Impeachment , Senate Moving Ahead Regardless. 4 Libya News De Jour. 5. Odds & Ends. )


May 2009: market expects Fed Funds rate to move above 1% by July 2010 Today: <1% as far out as April 2019

S&P 500 Q1 Revenue Growth (YoY) by sector...

With 88% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating EPS down 5%, 6th consecutive YoY decline.

Negative Yields through... Swiss: 15 yr Japan: 10 yr Germany: 9 yr France: 6 yr Ireland: 4 yr Spain/Italy: 2 yr


Loans extended by 5 years, max. 1% of GR GDP for debt repayment up to 2050, with interest rate not above 2%

Concession under discussion (  very rough translation of pertinent points )  .....

First , the average term of these loans ( from the second Greek program) would be extended by five years. Second, the repayment of these loans is limited up to 2050 to a maximum of one percent of Greek GDP. Third,  Greece would not be obligated to pay  more than two percent interest on these loans up to 2050. The three actions relate to a loan volume of 130.9 billion euros.


Other items under consideration....

The euro zone is also considering Greece continue to pay the interest profits from the Greek bonds held by central banks. Also considering that the ESM take over the relatively high yield IMF loans to Greece and then Greece to be provided lower interest rates on those loans.


:: won't make legislate specific measures up front, but legislate mechanism. Legally sound.

. says "this was a very good EG for Greece and Europe" thats a first!

Today's Eurogroup statement regarding Greece...


Internet and pay-TV taxes shock market

Pensions are cut for most Greeks

Debt re-profiling being placed on table -for discussion purposes , at this time. A key meeting will be May 24th

May 24th Eurogroup Meeting setting up as key for first review completion-should provide insight re: debt relief too.

Turkey - EU.....

Out of control...

Erdogan keeps his lawyers busy filing lawsuits...

Take with appropriate grains of salt-but after recent actions and statements from Sultan Erdogan-is there a Plan B ?

President Erdogan still expects, Europe to fulfill visa free travel for Turks , despite Friday's remarks.

State of play regarding EU -Turkey refugee transfer agreement.


May 11th still the drop dead date for Rousseff , as far as the Senate is concerned.

As if action of Lower House wasn't enough , Senate plans to move forward with Impeachment anyway.

The Brazilian real is getting smashed on the confusion about wth is going on in the impeachment drama.


Speaking at Arab League consultative meeting yesterday, Faiez Serraj called on Arab states to help lift UN weapons ban on Libyan army

Mismari: Operation will not be directed against any town, tribe or side. Citizens should not spread rumors aimed at sowing discord

Army spox Ahmed Mismari: Operation Greater will not go beyond administrative boundaries of the area & will not target anyone but

Jarushi: Haftar also told Kobler he lost trust in him following Kobler's remarks on Libyan army& his unwillingness to help lift arms embargo

Khalifa Haftar told Kobler he is too busy with Operation & fighting to meet with him, according to HoR member TareqJarushi

Jarushi: Haftar also accused Kobler of not providing any humanitarian assistance [to Benghazi]- medical equipment, mine detectors etc

Context: Kobler said last month in an interview that the Libyan National Army under Haftar was "not an army for all Libya"

Planned Tunis meeting btwn Libya Elders Council and Libyan Political Dialogue members, Martin Kobler, GNA PC & pro-GNA HoR members cancelled

Including NW offshore fields, Libya oil production is now approximately 200,000 bpd. Was 1.6m at peak.

Odds & Ends ......

Threats over ' burger' force eatery to close


to process over one million asylum claims in 2016

If correct - symbolically , this would be a big hit to ISIS psychologically. The Unmasked ISIS Bogeyman.

Trump picks Chris Christie to head his White House transition team

Cratering today..

Trading House Noble Group Slumps Most Since 2011 (-13.6%) on Debt Worries