Thursday, March 10, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( March 10 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. ECB & Draghi Launch QE Bazooka and Interest Rate Move , Also ECB Staff Issues New Growth & Inflation Forecasts. 2. USD Index In Context. 3. US Treasuries VS German Bund - Divergence Over Yield Curve. 4. FX Watch. ) Europe In Focus (1. Finnish Parliament To Debate Eurozone Exit. 2. Ukraine Prime Minister throws Down Gauntlet To Ukraine President - "Back Me Or Sack Me." 3. France Hit Hard By Protests - Labor Law & Transport Workers. 4.Bulgaria Makes Voting Mandatory . 5. Refugee Crisis / Border Security. ) Odds & Ends ( 1. Libya Unity Gov't Quest Fruitlessly Ambles Along. 2. Puerto Rico Developments Of Note - Water Utility Restructure Law Approved , GOP Considering Board To Run Puerto Rico Gov't - But that's All ? 3. Greece Opens Door To Pension Reductions , Tax Revenues Miss 4. ISIS - Syria Battlefield Updates. 5. Oil Non News On Non Production Cuts. China Items Of Note To Consider . )

Overview .........

ECB Decisions - Lots here , more at the T.L

As per Nick Kounis , here are the ECB's policy decisions made today...

Meat of today's decisions -points 3 through 6.

Reactions , granular details , etc......

At least Kuroda's announcement had a half-life of 1 day on yen. Draghi's half-life was 1 hour on euro.

Just incredible to watch the BOJ & ECB do everything in their power to crash their currencies ... and they stop going down. That's markets.

Not a happy ending type of day , so far...

. Draghi sugar high gone. FTSE / CAC / DAX all have dived into the red today.

New currency war in the making as ECB increase the balance sheet expansion by €20bn per month. (Chart via BBG)


10 hours ago

New growth and inflation forecasts: Annual GDP: 1.4pc in 2016, 1.7pc, in 2017, and 1.8pc Inflation: 0.1pc in 2016, 1.3pc in 2017, 1.6pc in 2018

Dollar Index: Peaked in March 2015 (highest level since 2003), down 4% over the past year.

The Great Divergence in rates b/t US Treasuries and German Bunds...

Euro has not made a new low vs. US Dollar in almost a year and is up 2.1% YTD. If this continues, Draghi goes -10%.

Europe In Focus ......

Missed this item !

Bulgaria and Albania take action fearing refugees massing at their doorstep

Ukraine PM challenges president to ‘back me or sack me’. interview

France hit by protests...

Mandatory voting - told who to vote for as well ?

Some headway. Arrivals still swamping departures of economic migrants.

2.7million syrian refugees in Turkey alone !

Fr Guy Verhofstadt. Agree w/his overall assessment of illegal deal w/Turkey. Re: 3 EU steps , concur w/1st 2 steps.

. : Greece asked EU to activate relocation, readmission of

And a divided Europe cannot stand...

How can Turkey be considered safe presently ? Restless kurdish portions-in particular SE Turkey and syrian border.

Wonder where EU is going to land on Turkish visa liberalisation: clear many against, including Merkel's Bavarian sister party .

United line emerging from EU ministers in Brussels today on this: "Balkan Route closed" "no more waving-through"

According to government official, there are now 41,973 and trapped in the country

Will lead to new wave of migration from turkish kurds- as per Bavarian interior minister Joachim Herrmann

Europe's refugee crisis is posing risks for Greek economy & Greece needs substantial help to deal w/ refugees -OECD

Austria’s Int Min says the Balkan migrant route should remain closed permanently. The “clock will not be turned back

UNHCR prepares for inevitable smuggler work arounds regarding refugees...

"Tens of thousands" of migrants "not hundreds of thousands or millions"-would not include existing Greece refugees

Run rate of 2 million per year....

Odds & Ends .....

After recognised parliament (Tobruk) failed to vote on it Monday UN held new talks today on unity government.

UN has set no new deadline for unity government deal. Neither of Libya's 2 existing rival governments has yet agreed. Talks continue.

Puerto Rico House approves legislation to restructure water utility, Prasa

Republicans are pondering a board to run the Puerto Rico government and nothing more

Katrougalos opens door to pension reductions

Tax revenues miss budget target in January

Something to keep an eye on...fwiw

All the fake oil prod cut/ prod freeze headlines , falling aside-political/economic realities still exist.

Former IS member gives memory stick with names,phones&more of 22,000 fighters, including foreign fighters.

": China nationalizing insolvent corporations; ECB going "full bazooka" The recovery has truly arrived" Crazy Town time

Seriously wounded , but not dead....

Troika says Greece will need to cut primary pensions ?