Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( February 23 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. Global Two Year Yields / CPI / Real Yields. 2. Current Market Rate Hike Expectations. 3. Oil Plunges As Iran Calls Freeze Proposal 'Ridiculous' & API Report Shows Inventory Buildup. 4. Risk-Off Day Points To Swiss Franc & Yen On Some Tepid US Economic Data, Sell-Off In Oil, A Negative Message From JPM. ) Asia In Focus ( 1. Barclays Speculates On Yual Devluation. 2. PBOC Back To Weakening Yuan - Second Day In A Row. 3. Singapore GDP Print - Not bad. 4. BOJ Waxes With Some Jibber Jabber On Room To Cut Rates Further Into Negative Territory. ) Europe In Focus ( 1. UK Referendum / Breathless Brexit News. 2. Refugee Crisis / Border Security. 3. Spanish Politics. ) Odds & Ends ( 1. Global Grab Bag. )


Evening wrap......




Overview For Tuesday




Global 2-Year Yields, CPI, and Real Yields...






Current market rate hike expectations... US: Oct 2017 UK: August 2019 Eurozone: Dec 2019 Japan: 2020





plunges as Iran calls freeze proposal 'Ridiculous' & API report shows inventory buildup






Risk-off day points to Swiss Franc & Yen on some tepid US econ data, sell-off in , a negative message from JPM.







Asia For Wednesday ......







Barclays in the sharp, one-off yuan deval camp. 25% deval, 6-12 months before fx reserves fall below comfort levels.






PBOC moves the yuan to the weakest against the dollar since Chinese new year. USDCNY fix is 6.5302 vs 6.5273 Tuesday







Decent print on Singapore GDP. Q4 1.8% (est 1.8% prev 2%) Q4 q/q SAAR 6.2% (4.5%, 5.7%) 2015 y/y 2.0% (prev 2.9%) 2016 forecast kept at 1-3%







Kuroda: plenty of room for rate cuts




Europe Highlights.....




UK Referendum , BREXIT Panic Attack News Of the day.....







Sterling’s decline deepens ahead of Brexit vote






What you need to know about the insane "Brexit" debate happening in Britain right now


















So this is what the Dutch think of : (via )






7. Of which country did say this week "They have no special status - there will be no treaty change"?






Ex-military chiefs voice Brexit security fears: by








Cabinet ministers campaigning for banned from using the civil service for help






My views on Brexit vote & why is a major downside risk to both the UK & the global economy as it raises uncertainty













Czech PM sees 'Czexit' debate if Britain leaves EU: Report





Refugee Crisis/ Border Security.....




Belgium moving 290 extra border police to French frontier and reimposing passport controls believing Calais Jungle camp will be shut down.






Belgium reintroduces border controls to stave off migrant wave






Is Lebanon's hospitality for turning into a disaster?







Crisis grows along Greek-Macedonian border as Skopje limits passage






Tsipras voices 'displeasure' to EU over Balkans border bottleneck






More than 102,500 people crossed to Greece in 2016, IOM says








Refugees are arriving in Europe eight times as faster than this time last year













Spanish Politics.....







Pablo Iglesias says Podemos will vote against any PSOE-Ciudadanos deal, that the numbers won't add up "even if the Pope ratified the deal".















Which means Pedro Sánchez now has even less time to do a deal: seven days.










Odds & Ends ......



Small sample , but still disturbing.....





Benghazi's dynamically changing ground situation makes the prospect of the UN-proposed GNA unlikely & a Libya-driven solution more plausible





Detail on today's postponed vote on unity government (AFP)





- intense exchange between pro & anti GNA camps in led to postponing of today's session for lack of quorum.






- No vote on GNA in today - dispute between anti & pro GNA camps led to postponing session possibly till next week.






Saudis not cutting production. End scene.






German, French anxiety over Ukraine political crisis mounts






IMF termination of Greece Program has already occurred , two months early actually.










drops below $1.10 after disappointing German ifo index.








's Ifo dive in Feb to 105.7, lowest since end-2014 as expectations fall off a cliff.