Monday, February 22, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( February 22 , 2016 ) Overview ( 1. US Equities Continue Impressive Rebound From YTD Lows . 2 . British Pound Got "Pounded" Today. 3. Vix On An Incredible Tear Since February 11th. 4. Global Risk On Monday - In Spite Of All The Worrying News. 5. China Still An Accident Waiting For The Vehicles To Arrive. 6. ECB Trying To Find A New Way To Save The Banks. 7. US Manufacturing PMI Sinks To Lowest Level Since October 2012. 8. Odds & Ends. ) Europe ( 1. UK Referendum Items Of The Day - Campaign Is Underway . 2. Refugee Crisis/ Border Security Items. 3. Greece Items Of The Day . 4. Spain Political Updates - PSOE And Ciudadanos Trying To Cobble Together A Government Or Maybe Four Way Left Wing Combination. ) Odds & Ends ( 1. Oil And Commodities News. 2. Bolivia's President In Strange Sense Of Denial Regarding Losing Re-Election Referendum. 3.Libya's HoR To Vote On Unity Government Tuesday. 3.Syria May Have Agreement On Provisional Ceasefire - We Will Know Perhaps By Friday. )


Update: S&P: +7.5% from the low. >50% of stocks closed above their 50-day moving average, highest % this year.

Dow Components, YTD returns. Interesting to see up 6.7% and flat with all the negative attention on Crude.

British Pound ends the day at its lowest level vs. US Dollar since March 2009.

Index: -31.2% since Feb 11, one of the largest 6-day declines in history. Volatility of Volatility continues.

JPM: Mkt strength inexplicable given neg news w/pretty ugly PMIs (JP,EU,US), HSBC bad earnings, rising angst

’s ‘trilemma’ makes it vulnerable to more shocks, writes.

ECB seeks ways to ease pain for banks.Japan-style neg rates would trigger claims of curr war

Markit flash US Manufacturing drops to lowest level since October 2012. More here:

US Mfg PMI 51.0, Exp. 52.4, Last 52.4

Safes Sell Out In Japan, 1,000 Franc Note Demand Soars As NIRP Triggers Cash Hoarding


UK Referendum........

Almost half of the Tory MEPs are likely to vote to abolish their jobs by backing Brexit, the Sun can reveal.

This could backfire. But we shall see.

Cameron claims his "treaty" is "legally binding" without ratification. Has constitutional history been made?

SNP tells PM "certain" that there will be another Scottish referendum if UK votes to leave


At midday, asks "why Greeks more important than Brits" since gave big referendum speech but won't for UK

Refugee Situation / Border Security......

EU states should voluntarily accept more refugees from Turkey and Greece, report says

Spaniard's award winning cartoon on Europe's approach to the refugee crisis:

ND says he asked for a meeting w/ the Austrian Amb in , expressed disappointment re: Austria's stance on .

6000 refugees and migrants on the greek /macedonian border and ships still arriving in Pireus full of more via skaitv

Closing borders would cost EU 470 bn euros over 10 years: study

'Schengen is dead': EU failed to protect Its key ideals amid

Not surprisingly , Turkey has hamstrung the NATO "Initiative" regarding Refugees.


| ND's rejects calls for natl unity govt, says he'd prefer new elections if he'll hv to choose

Greece braces for thousands of stranded

If Greece keeps raising business taxes, soon there won't be any businesses left to tax

Greece. Unemployment: 24.6% Youth unemployment: 48% Budget deficit: 4% of GDP Stock market, past year: -49.4%

farmers will decide their stance re gov't proposals after general meetings.

farmers' representatives refrained from disclosing and commenting on gov't proposals re pension reform.

travel receipts grow 12.2 pct in Dec, surplus rises to 12.17 bln in 2015.

gov't may propose to farmers social security contributions of 10% in 2017-18, 15% in 2019-20 and 20% in 2022 (via )

gov't considers extending the transition period for farmers' soc sec contributions until 2021 (instead of 2019), acc to local media.

Labour Min appears optimistic an agreement may be reached soon leading to completion of programme review by Mar 27 (via )


Hernando says PSOE hopes "many agreements will be announced over the next few days, with many parties".

PSOE spokesman Hernando says 161 seats not enough for "government of change". Doesn't then explain how 130-seat PSOE-Ciudadanos would work.

Rajoy, in case anyone had missed it: "Obviously we're not going to govern with Podemos". Still selling a three-way establishment coalition.

Cadena SER And Vozpópuli reporting Sánchez and Rivera have held a "secret" meeting in Congress this evening to talk about a PSOE-Ciudadanos.

The two-way PSOE-Podemos meeting tomorrow will be at 6 p.m., followed by another four-way summit at 8 p.m..

LATEST: United Left leader Garzón says Podemos and PSOE will hold a bilateral meeting tomorrow evening.

They're alive! Marathon four-way, four-hour left-wing "super red" meeting in Congress ends.

Odds& Ends.......

OPEC has now concluded it doesn’t know how to coexist with the U.S. shale oil industry

: , the world's largest company, slashes interim dividend to 16 cents from 62 cents per share --

Bolivia's President Evo Morales insists he hasn't lost the re-election referendum — yet

Libya parliament to vote Tuesday on unity government

BREAKING: Syria opposition coordinator Hijab says there is provisional agreement on temporary truce: Orient TV

Draft US Russia Agreement on say all sides must commit to cessation by 1200 Friday (Damascus)

Turkish FM calls on Washington to make up its mind on YPG, reports