Friday, January 15, 2016

Economic News , Data & Views ( January 15 , 2016 ) Europe In Focus ( 1. Falling Oil Prices Impact Russian Budget . 2 Italian Gov't Debt Hits 2,211.9 BN Euros - Near Record High. 3. Central Bank Items - ECB / BOE & German Constitution Court Items . 4. Portugal Default Risk Rises After Bank Bail - In Controversies . 5. Crude ( WTI ) Below 30 Once Again. 6. EZ/ E.U Data Splash. 7. Greece Items Of Note. 8. Refugee Related Items. 9. Odds & Ends. ) Asia In Focus (1. Brazil - Data On Economy Keeps Getting Worse. 2. Saudi / Arabia / Oil Related Items. 3. Various Chinese Economy and Chinese Markets Items . 4. Various Japan Market Related Items And General News Items . 5. Risk- Off Friday - Basic theme. 6. India Currency Item. Indonesia Items. 8. Asia shares Hit 3-1/2-Year Lows As Oil Resumes Fall. 9. Odds & Ends. )


Evening Wrap of one heck of a week !!!!!!! Black Friday and not a shoppers delight....













JPM Cuts Q4 GDP from 1.0% to 0.1%







Report paving way for Iran sanctions relief likely on Saturday: Source:

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Oh yeah, and someone sold $34.5 billion in Treasurys last week







If the German Constitutional Court found ECB OMT illegal - now that would be a very dark swan indeed.





German Top Court to Rehear Arguments in ECB Bond-Buying Case via







WTI CRUDE SETTLES BELOW $30/BBL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2003




After Bitcoin declared "a failed experiment" by early developer, value drops 10%.
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Austria joins Germany in sending back refugees






Italy blocking deal. Say 3 BN euros should come from EU Budget , rather than National Gov'ts also having to pay up.






.: Special EU Council could be held in late February to finalise EU reform deal and pave way for June vote






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US trade is crashing..Fed can't hike into this any further.






Still just 272 refugees relocated out of 160 , 000 agreed relocations from GR / ITA -since October 2015 !







Polish PM says no more than 400 'refugees' will be relocated to Poland in 2016 | New Europe





is recession enough? *DUDLEY: IF ECONOMY WEAKENED, WOULD CONSIDER NEGATIVE RATES





*FINLAND'S TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW MINUS 0.396%





Great dissection of HETA Wars - The Empire ( Creditors ) Strike Back Edition...













Rhine town cancels parade following Cologne assaults
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| *RUSSIA'S NOVAK: OPEC, NON-OPEC UNLIKELY TO AGREE ON CUTS









GOP debate divided: the leaders and the rest via On the debate....








Europe......










Swiss join Denmark in seizing Assets from Refugees to cover costs...











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Merkel approval rating drops to lowest in ZDF poll since 2011 after Cologne attacks stoke refugee debate. 60% say can’t handle influx. (BBG)








EU migration commissioner warns refugee crisis 'getting worse'

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Migrants bussed to Merkel's Berlin office have been sent straight back via








EU states ‘failed to deliver’ on migrants, says Juncker

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| *MEDVEDEV: $50/BBL SEEMED REALISTIC WHEN BUDGET WAS COMPILED








| GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AT 2,211.9 BLN EUROS IN NOV. ...just shy of record in Oct
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One bank employee, five Finance Ministry workers, accused of bribery
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| Swaps basically not pricing in any rate hikes over next 12 months (11bps)
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| 5Y/5Y inflation swap back <1.60%; lowest since Oct...

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's default risk rises as govt has collided head-on w/ investors over bank bail-in.

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| WTI back <$30...
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German Top Court to hear case over ’s OMT Feb16. To hear OMT case in view EU Top Court ruling. Also review ESM and fiscal pact. (BBG)






IMF decision on third Greek bailout could take until Q2, says Lagarde

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| Nov Household Consumption Y/Y: 3.2%
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The cost and benefits of abandoning its euro peg.

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Pension reform may derail budget







| *NORWAY DEC. OUTPUT 1.609MLN BBL/D OF OIL: NPD ...v 1.598M in Nov







| Dec Maeklarstatistik Housing Prices Y/Y: 12%; Apartment Prices: Y/Y: +16%









Emerging Nations / Asia .....







| *BRAZIL NOV. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR FALLS 6.14% ON YEAR (monthly GDP)

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| Saudi Arabia to Japan Tanker Rate -3.7% to 60 Points

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Investors getting nervous how 's communists handle their econ crisis. Default probability rises.

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'Risk off' is name of the game today as risk barometer AUDJPY highlights, that dropped to 3y low.

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| Uh-oh! Everyone's "watching closely" again! *DAS SAYS INDIA'S FIN MINISTRY, RBI WATCHING RUPEE CLOSELY

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stocks enter bear market territory after todays plunge. Shanghai Composite down 20.6% from Dec. 22.

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Latest survey in HK: 19% employers are planning layoffs, 19% hostels will be closing this year amid the terrible tourism and retail sales.








sell-off continues. Shanghai Comp closes down 3.6% at 2900.97, fresh low since Aug26 Close at 2927.29.
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HKD is falling to new 50-month low 7.7960









Markets remained hostage to the erratic moves in oil. Nikkei ends down 0.5% at 17147.11 while Yen strengthens.
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| Dec Exports Y/Y: -17.7%; Imports Y/Y: -16.0%

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| DEC AGGREGATE FINANCING: CNY 1.82T V 1.15TE

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| DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.3% V 13.6%E

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| DEC NEW YUAN LOANS: CNY598B V 700BE
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| Wal-Mart Said to Have Closed About 60 Brazil Stores: Reuters (10% of stores)







rout far from over as Offshore and Onshore Yuan begin to widen again.

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BREAKING: Confusion Abounds as Police Claim to Have ‘Incapacitated’ Attackers via thejakartaglobe








Good morning from Berlin. Asia shares hit 3-1/2-year lows as oil resumes fall.

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