Saturday, October 31, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( October 31 , 2015 ) ......... Greece In Focus ( ECB Finds Total Capital Shortfall for 4 Largest Greek Banks at $4.391 BN Euros In Baseline Scenario , $ 14.4 BN Euros In Adverse Scenario , Economic Items / Troika Bailout related items ) ....... Libya Peace Deal In Focus ( EU considers imposing sanctions if UN peace deal not signed - not clear when / against whom sanctions actually would be applied / precise sanctions to be deployed / simply EU or would UN sanction route be deployed ) ...... Refugee / Economic Migrant Crisis Updates.......


Europe.......






Greek Bank Recap & Bank Related News......





Alpha 9M net loss at €838 mln, pre-provision income at €872 mln, loan provisions at €2.36 bln, NPL at 36.5%.





Piraeus 9M net loss at €635 mln, pre-provision income at €812 mln, loan provisions at €2.12 bln, NPL at 40.5% +1.1pp QoQ.









Greece's Eurobank to seek big participation of investors in recap via









ECB stress test already appears too optimistic







Handy reminder that under baseline creditor forecast, Greece will grow 2.7pc in 2017



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Banks must submit capital plans explaining how they will cover the shortfall by 6 November











's Piraeus Bank has the biggest capital hole to plug. NBG scored second worst in terms of cap shortfall.


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finds total capital shortfall of €14.4 billion for four significant Greek banks






*****



Results of the comprehensive assessment by bank (in %, € million)
AQR impactBaseline scenarioAdverse scenario
Bank
Pre-AQR CET1% Jun-15
In %
Post AQR CET1% Jun-15
In %
Shortfall vs. 9.5% post-AQR
In € mil.
CET1% post-baseline
In %
Shortfall vs. 9.5% post-ST
In € mil.
CET1% post-adverse
In %
Shortfall vs. 8% post-ST
In € mil.
Alpha Bank
12.7%9.6%09.0%2632.1%2,743
Eurobank
13.7%8.6%3398.6%3391.3%2,122
NBG
11.6%8.1%8316.8%1,576-0.2%4,602
Piraeus Bank
10.8%5.5%2,1885.2%2,213-2.4%4,933
Total
12.1%7.9%3,3587.6%4,3910.1%14,401







draft bill on bank recap framework is discussed in the Parliamentary plenary session.









Greek banks: Trick or treat? RBS estimates cap shortfall at Greek banks of €6.5bn in best case, €19.5bn in base case



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Good Morning. Greek bank stress test results due. Reports suggests cap shortfall of €4.5bn(baseline), €14bn(adverse)


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Greece Economic Items & Troika aka " Quad Squad  " items ....







All political parties (excl KKE & Golden Dawn) voted in favor of draft bill on bank recap framework








BREAKING: Legislation for the bank recap was approved in the parliament








LOL: Almost 57% of the loans made by Piraeus Bank in Greece are now considered non-performing


















Greek retail sales down by 4 pct in August for third straight fall
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Greece, Retail Trade - Volume of stock currently held
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Beijing concerned about OLP tender delays

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Housing market continues to suffer


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Coalition berated for rushing bills through House

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Greek producer prices slide 10.4 pct in September


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Some stores to open on Sunday


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Euroworking group: 2main issues remaining unresolved,foreclosures & VAT on education says EU official- aiming for disbursement next week,









EU Consider Sanction On Libya......








EU sanctions - officials yet to say whether sanctions target those not signing UN peace plan, or those blocking plan after it signed.










EU considering sanctions if UN peace deal not signed











UK parliament Libya inquiry, former UK ambassador testimony - UN peace process + risk of Libya splitting.


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UK parliament Libya inquiry, former UK ambassador testimony - how close is economic collapse?


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UK parliament Libya inquiry, former UK ambassador testimony - oil field security.

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Refugee Crisis......








Map showing how Europe is building barriers to control people flows, by









's Defence Minister von der Leyen: We Europeans are not only spectators when it comes to conflicts of the Middle East.






’s von der Leyen: Need new partnerships of dedication for all to share fair share of burden of conflicts.






Thousands of Syrian refugees wait at German border after stricter controls take effect



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Going to refugee camp on tuesday if anyone who has been there has good advice for me DM









Not Receiving Enough EU Help to Tackle


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Out of all the developments around the world, most devastating topic is the in the Aegean Sea. Unspeakable tragedy. Gnite all









Norway dips into its huge $860 billion piggy bank again, after refugee costs rise



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EU Refugee Crisis: Anger as nearly 50 drown in 3 Days in the Mediterranean via


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Germany restricts migrant entry to five points on Austrian border: ministry











Pied piper of Berlin: 's migrant policy alienating Europe


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Austria to build border fence with Slovenia amid


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Free to read: How Europe's migrant crisis may hasten Angela Merkel's political demise


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