Monday, September 7, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( Labor Day - September 7 , 2015 ) Greece Updates ( Political news , polling data , economic data , data for Greece Bank NPLs ) ....... Broader Europe ( EU/ EZ Items , news / data / views touching on various individual nation -states ) ....... China and Emerging Market Updates ( Yuan in focus , E.M currencies in focus , China - various reports touching on financial wherewithal generally , stock-market and regulator related items )

Morning tweets.....


Tsipras is all over the place on policy. Very little on offer for voters beyond whatever personal appeal he retains (and his ratings at low)

At least 10,000 migrants to be ferried to mainland in next five days, minister says

Red Loans Pose Threat to Greek Banks Restart

BREAKING: Police deploy water cannons against farmers protesting in Brussels

Pulse for
SYRIZA 27 ND 26.5 G Dawn 6.5 PASOK 6 Potami 5.5 KKE 5.5 Cent Union 4 Pop Unity 4 Ind Grks 2.5 Undecided 10

MoF says Aug revenues reached €4.055 bln, 1.6% higher than target of €3.99 bln.

Greek Opposition Leader Says Would Join Coalition With Tsipras

general gov't primary cash surplus markedly better in July but arrears climb - An analysis.

Tsipras rules out possibility of cooperation with New Democracy -

cen gov gross debt down by ~11 bln YtD to €313.17 bln in Jul from €324.13 bln at end-Dec.

general government arrears to the private sector +7.7% MoM and +52.1% YtD to 5.74 bln at end-Jul.

7-mon Trade Deficit -19.5% to €9.98 bln, Exports -2.7%, Imports -10.1%. (ELSTAT)

The impact from capital controls clearly depicted in imports (-32%).

Under its base case scenario, Moody's expects bank NPL ratio to increase to ~45% from ~36% in Q1 2015.

Broader Europe including Russia .....

VIDEO: Riot police pelted with hay as farmers protest low prices, high costs

Police use water cannons against protesting in Brussels (VIDEO)

Otmar Issing warns against handing over control of tax and spending before democratic political union is established

Belgian migration secretary Francken against new EC refugee proposals "if Eastern Europe doesn't take part"

Hungary's : EU should pay , other countries to help handle migrants

WATCH LIVE: Farmers protest falling food prices in Brussels

German govt agreed to a €6bn boost for Refugees. German comps view influx as opportunity to reinvigorate labor mkt.

Wow. More info here as farmers around EU gather for mass protest in Brussels

France will back lifting of anti-Russia if settled

OPEC says join the club, Russia not interested – Rosneft CEO

Other side of generous Germany: Sharp rise in neo nazi attacks on asylum hostels

Police water cannon at Brussels protest

Looks like the pedestrian zone got an extension - thanks to the

Germany to spend $6.6 billion on 800,000 and . reports

Woman arrested in Catalonia for recruiting people to fight for

independence parties look set to win most seats in election, poll says

Opposition sets up 90 tents on Chisinau main square. Starting to look more & more like Maidan .

China , Emerging Markets......

China-Japan share of world economy (PPP). 1990 Japan: 8.8% China: 4% 2015 Japan: 4.3% China: 16.9%

Yuan (-3% YTD) is still relatively strong in Asia Pacific after depreciation. NZD has weakened 24% vs Dollar.

Citi: reserves depreciation at this level could be kept up for 3 years before the pot would run dry.

JPM expects capital outflows to exceed $600bn in next 12 months, which is double the pre-devaluation pace.

FX reserves drop by $93.9bn in Aug, double the pace of Jul & largest mthly drop ever.

  • Cap Econ puts China's outflows at $130bn in August, up from $75bn in July but "not as large as doom mongers feared"

  • No QDII for you- China keeps outbound investment quotas frozen for 5th month, efforts to curb yuan exodus continue.

    Taiwan August trade numbers are pretty grim (y/y) Exports -14.8% Electronics -11.4% China -16.6% (40% of total) ASEAN -19% Imports -16.7%

    Ouch. China spent up big to support the yuan, forex reserves down to $3.56tr end-August (from $3.65tr)- largest monthly drop on record

    Market stability with Chinese characteristics. SH -2.5% (was +1.8%) SZ +0.2% (was +3.7%) CSI300 -3.4% ChiNext +2.1%

    closes down after a long holiday. Shanghai Comp drops 2.6%, erasing all initial gains.

    BREAKING: Chinese stock market closed 2.52% down as all state banks sank, despite central bank chief said stock market crash "near the end"

    Asian Crisis 2.0: Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupia plunge to new 1998 lows.

    China margin debt is down -57% since the peak, SHCOMP down -38%...

    Um. Man Group China head reemerges to deny being taken into police custody, says she was just meditating for 6 days.

    BREAKING: Chinese stock regulator says to create "fuse mechanism" to suspend trading if key index sinks too fast, similar to US market rules

    MORE: Chinese Gov pledges to let the state agency for margin finance to continue to play its role to stabilize stock market - CSRC spokesman

    MORE: At current level, "stock market bubble and risk" have been released to a considerable extent - CSRC spokesman told state media tonight

    MORE: Chinese Gov will continue to make "timely and decisive measures" to stabilize stock market esp in unusual volatility - CSRC spokesman

    BREAKING: Chinese Gov will not "sit and do nothing" with stock market when seeing potential systemic risk - CSRC spokesman told state media