Monday, August 3, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( August 3 , 2015 ) - China Updates ( Shanghai Exchange and Chinese Securities Regulator issue statements announcing further crackdowns against unusual / illegal trading activities , program trading , HFT Activities -Stocks still fall once again Shanghai Exchange Monday ! ) ...... Greece Updates ( Greece's Manufacturing absolutely fell off a cliff during July during capital controls imposition - record collapse , Athens Stock Market re-opens with predictable results - bank stocks down thirty percent as overall market opened down about 22 percent , business confidence hit as well - again this should come as no surprise ) ..... Broader Europe Updates ( Non Greek Bourses generally unaffected by travails of Athens Exchange , EZ Tax Plans take shape , Merkel looks to run in 2017 , Germany skeptical about Bailout Talks timing - too ambitious , migrant issue in focus - GR / FRA / UK , PMI data out for EZ and EU ) .... Commodity Crush - Oil , Copper , Gold in focus !


Evening Wrap....








Mayors appeal to minister to release structural funds







S&P revises EU outlook from stable to neg on EU's repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU states (Greece).








Brent tumbles below $50 on Supply Plans, Slowdown.







HFSF participation in banks tumbles by €2.25 billion today to €5.25 bln as the banking index plummets ~30%.







bank liquidity buffer upped to ~€5bln thanks to limit increase, tax & tourism inflows & pension payments - RTRS.








From incr health contributions for main pensions to 6% (from 4%) & for suppl'ry to 6% (from zero), aims to raise €854 mln annually.










Morning Tweets.....





China.....








Shanghai Stock Exchange statement: to closely monitor accounts esp for short-time profit-taking operations; will be determined to crack down









With new actions taken by stock exchange today, a total of 38 accounts (incl. US hedge fund Citadel) have been so far restricted for trading








BREAKING: Shanghai Stock Exchange suspend 4 more securities accounts; issue warnings to 5 accounts due to "unusual stock trading activities"












BREAKING: Chinese securities regulator warned investors NOT to use "program-oriented trading" to unstable stock market for own quick profits









BREAKING: China's state agency for margin finance to pour 200 bln RMB or more via new mutual funds into stock market August - official media












MORE: Some investors found to buy a lot of large-caps like Sinopec, PetroChina intraday and sell before market close for profits - regulator










MORE: Some investors try to cause market panic, put market in disorder by making quick profits for their own amid market recovery -regulator









MORE: To stabilize market regulator has ordered stock bourses to so far restrict 34 trading accounts incl one owned by US hedge fund Citadel









MORE: No.1 working priority for CSRC now is to stabilize market and "stabilize people's mind 穩定人心" and put market in order by law -regulator









Note: all above are from CSRC interview with state newspapers (all same comments) for 1st time especially to warn "program-oriented trading"








China Regulator once again speaks out on HFT ....









This is a superb quote from the China Securities Regulatory Commission












Greece.....




2nd bridge loan looks increasingly likely, €zone may find it useful to force immediate reform b4 cash release






Greek manufacturing slumps at record pace as crisis takes toll








Greek business confidence falls 5th straight month to worst level since Oct. 2012 Survey:







stocks plunge 22 percent as bourse reopens









Athens market now at -17.8%. Financials still at -30% limit down but some blue chips & mid-caps find buyers at these levels.

















Wowzers. Greece is a cash only economy











Weird world. Greece's worst PMI numbers in history has seen Athens markets *stabilise. We're only down 19.8%










*EU SAYS GREEK ECONOMY HAS 'DETERIORATED MARKEDLY' IN 2015 - WEAKER GREEK GDP A FACTOR IN SETTING NEW FISCAL TARGETS









*ATHENS BOURSE CEO LAZARIDIS: RESTRICTIONS WILL APPLY FOR AROUND ONE MONTH








key level: main support 168 (low 06/12) - safe area above main resistances 214 in the middle









Greek Hotels in Thessaloniki Filled With Syrian Refugees









"The sheer magnitude of manufacturing downturn sends a worrying signal for the health of economy as a whole"











Greek manufacturing PMI falls to record low in July, new business sees biggest drop








Alpha Bank, Piraeus, NBG, Eurobank, all -30%, warrants -82%









Broader Europe.....




Migrant flow to Europe is result of US, EU military ops in Middle East – Czech president















European shares unaffected by Greek crash HT










Breaking a Taboo: Plans for Euro-Zone Tax Take Shape via








Crap.











FOCUS reports that German govt thinks Greek bailout schedule is overly ambitious and may not be met:








FOCUS reports special session of Bundestag to vote on 3rd Greek package in mid-August may have to be moved:









Latest Emnid/Bild poll: CDU/CSU would have absolute majority in parliament - polling on 43%:





Credit markets getting more nervous by the day as Ruble rout deepens. 's 5y default probability jumps to >21%.












UK and France seek EU and international help to deal with “global migration crisis”:







Calais migrants step up bids to get into Channel Tunnel







manufacturing rises to 51.9 in July (June: 51.4)







Manufacturing PMIs print better than Exp from Eurozone & UK with ASE down 20% after reopening for 1st time in 5 wks -









Fiscal transfers & monet unions fail:"Between 2000 and 2013, Southern Italy's economy grew 13%, half of Greece's 24%"







Markit manufacturing PMI in July. Spot






Meanwhile in France.










Commodities.....




Ruble rout deepens: Ruble weakens vs Dollar as Brent oil continues to drop.














Copper poised to enter a bear market. Now -20.35% from May 5 peak.











Brent 50 handle









US Crude falls below $46.50







Commodity rout spurs worst resource currency meltdown in 7years.










Why has lost its shine for investors & a growing number of hedge funds bet against asset









In ’s broken markets, PetroChina’s volatility surges to highest among world’s Top 100.










Copper drops to lowest since 2009