Friday, August 28, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( August 28 , 20115 ) ..... Refugee Situation ( EU Commissioners coming to Kos , Another tragic loss of life on the high seas - following the grim discovery of the truck-load of dead refugees in Austria , disproportionate impacts and disparate burden-shifting within Europe will continue to roil Europe ) ...... Commodities Update ( Commodities crush of late takes a break from recent poundings - as oil sees a big bounce Thursday , where is the gold at COMEX though ) ....... Greece Updates ( Economic data , Caretaker Gov't installed - new interim ministers announced , Snap Elections looms shortly as domestic and international politics set to begin next Act in ongoing Greece Drama ) ...... Asia Updates ( Japan and China in focus , data from Japan , updates on China stocks rip , regulator moves , pension funds set to unleash the Kraken )

Evening wrap...... Just highlights - much more at my tweet feed !

Asia .....

Fantastically-coloured mountains and cliffs in Zhangye Danxia, (credit: P Bibler).



achievement unlocked ( and all you had to do is shut down entire segments of the economy )



Alexis Tsipras' popularity tanks ahead of Greek elections

After a tough few days of leftist strife for Tsipras, 70 SYRIZA MPs sign a statement supporting him to be PM of next Greek gov't

3 polls today show SYRIZA-ND gap narrowing. Still early but it's clear sussing out elex will be like holding on to bar of wet soap

Metron Analysis for Parapolitika
Are you pro-MoU or anti-MoU, or is this term meaningless? Meaningless 73% Anti-MoU 18 Pro-MoU 6

Metron Analysis for Parapolitika
Are you in favour of euro or drachma? Euro 79% Drachma 17 N/A 4

Metron Analysis for Parapolitika
Was Tsipras right or wrong to agree 3rd bailout? Right 55% Wrong 40 N/A 5

Metron Analysis for Parapolitika
How do you view SYRIZA-Independent Greeks coalition? Negatively 72% Positively 22 Neither 4 N/A 2

Macedonia Uni for Skai
SYRIZA 25 ND 22 Potami 6 KKE 6 G Dawn 5.5 Pop Unity 5 Cent Union 4.5 PASOK 4.5 Ind Grks 2 Other 5

MRB poll for Agora
SYRIZA 24.6 ND 22.8 G Dawn 6.2 Potami 5.6 KKE 4.7 Centrist Union 4.7 Popular Unity 4.2 PASOK 3.9 Ind Greeks 2.3

Reality of 3rd bailout begins to sink in as pensioners prepare to pick up reduced (again) retirement pay

- Next parliament according to Metron poll. SYRIZA in pink, ND in blue. Majority 151. Fasten your seat belts.

Broader Europe.....

Payments glitch at HSBC leaves scores unpaid

. The Euro behaved like the Vix this week as the common currency has become funding tool for carry trades

So asks Russia to take deal that includes GDP warrants. That means Ukraine wants Russia to invest in its long-term econ growth

Ukraine Finance Minister tells it's "beyond comprehension" that people are suggesting the debt deal is too soft

German Aug CPI came in higher than exp as package holidays and non-energy industrial goods prices surprised to upside

Killing another myth: unexpectedly evades recession despite steep rise in franc.

Morning Tweets ....

Overview ......

* Bloomberg TV says bullard said Federal Open Market Committee doesn't like to move when there is volatility

Bullard: It will be a good day when the Fed lift rates. Recent market vol will not effect September rate decision

Bullard: "Under conventional models 5.3% unemployment is going to put upward pressure on inflation" - perhaps the models are wrong

Here is the Jackson Hole schedule Mark Carney of the speaks tomorrow PM UK time..

China Surge Continues, Futures Slide As Jittery Market Looks For Jackson Hole Valium

Refugee Situation......

Greece rescues 665 migrants off its islands

EU ‘snubbed’ Greek plan to tackle refugee crisis

Germany's Merkel says EU leaders stand ready to meet to discuss refugee cris if necessary but work must be done by interior ministers first.

Commissioners Timmermans and Avramopoulos to visit Kos island Sept 4. /via

Dead migrants likely Syrians, include four children: Austrian police

71 migrants, including 4 children, found decomposing inside abandoned lorry in Austria | South China Morning Post

Hundreds feared dead as boat sinks off

"Civilised" Europe.

Mediterranean migrant crossings top 300,000 in 2015: UN

Non-EU to the UK continues to increase and remains a larger share than EU migration



Oil soars 10 percent in biggest one-day rally in years

Crude posts biggest one-day rise since 2009

Ruble strongly bounces back today as Brent crude jumps by >10%.

Greece ......

Presidential decree for closure of Greek Parliament & elections on September 20 has been rubber stamped, reports Skai TV. We're off!

Greece’s economy surged as Tsipras fought with EU over aid deal

In case Q2 GDP rise of 0.8% did surprise you: It's just been revised to 0.9% (final).

Sixth straight fall for Greek economic sentiment in August as it plunges by 6.1 pts

Greece's first female PM to name caretaker government

Nikos Christodoulakis, Greece's new interim economy minister, chaired Eurogroup 2002-2003 when Greek finance minister

Greece's new interim finance minister is George Chouliarakis - previously Athens man at the Euro working group

- New ProRata/ poll: SYRIZA 23%, ND 19.5%, PASOK 4.5%, Potami 4%. Good luck with forming gov't.

ProRata poll for  
64% say Tsipras wrong to prompt snap elections
68% say should remain in euro "at all costs"

Gap between SYRIZA & New Democracy has closed by 7.5 points in less than 2 months, if accurate

ProRata poll for SYRIZA 23 ND 19 G Dawn 6.5 KKE 5 PASOK 4.5 Potami 4 Pop. Unity 3.5 Cent Union 3 Other 3.5 Undec 25.5

China and Japan in focus .......

First APEC blue, now or Beijing's military parade skies trending on Weibo after industrial shutdown.

Japan's labour market gets tighter. Jobs to applicant ratio keeps rising + unemployment rate drops to '97 low.

China stocks last week:
Aug 20: -3.4% Aug 21: -4.3% Aug 24: -8.5% Aug 25: -7.6% Aug 26: -1.3% Aug 27: 5.3% Aug 28: 4.8%

BREAKING: China Financial Futures Exchanges says to increase real-time monitoring of "unusual trades" to curb "excessive market speculation"

MORE: China securities regulatory CSRC chairman Xiao Gang urged securities industry to fight against bribery, corruption and insider-trading

BREAKING: China's securities regulator said it reported 22 cases to public security ministry for investigations, incl insider-trading cases

BREAKING: Shanghai benchmark index jumped nearly 5%, with 600 stock up 10% daily limit, as China is ready to pour trillion RMB pension funds

BofA's David Cui: A-shares need to fall another 35% to be attractive, rout will resume as soon as intervention stops.

Chinese pension funds' core investment theme is safety "safety first, safety is our top priority" Vice Minister HR & Social Security

China's Vice Finmin- total pensions hit 3.5 tln yuan late 2014, timing of purchases depends on prep work via professional investment firms.

in tatters: BoJ fails to fight deflation. inflation stalls, spending slides.

Gov Presser + bullish Xinhua commentary: this is best time for Chinese pension funds to buy stocks as valuations are already "cheap enough"!

Yuan Strengthens Most Since March, China Unveils New Bailout Source After Rescue Fund Runs Out Of Fire-Power

FACT: By end-2014, total size of pension funds is about 3.5 tln RMB Deputy social security minister: About 2 tln RMB ready for investments


US Automaker Panic Button Looms After China's Top Carmaker Warns Of "Grim" Outlook

So Sept rate hike in Japan then?



BREAKING: China's state agency for margin finance is raising 1.4 tln RMB interbank loans to prepare for a new round of stock market rescue

CHINA'S RESCUE FUND APPLIES FOR MORE LOANS FROM BANKS: CAIXIN. Time to bail out the bail out fund, again