Thursday, August 20, 2015

Economic News , Data & Views ( August 20 , 2015 ) ... Greece Updates ( Greece Bailout Approved , ECB Paid Today , Domestic Politics Now In Greater Focus - Snap Election Looms , Refugee Issue Looming Larger By The Day ) ...... Broader Europe ( Economic And Stock Bourse Items Of Note , Spain in Focus , Refugee Issue - More Than Just Greece & Italy Being Greatly Impacted , Currencies , Commodity Price Impacts ) ....... Emerging Market Items Of Note ( China , Oil Roiling Various E.M Currencies & Economies , North Korea Spat With South Korea In Focus , Turkey Politics & Growing Instability In Focus )


Evening wrap.....

A triplet of supportive statements to Tsipras' decision by the EUCommission (Selmayr, Breidhardt & Moscovici)

Another roll of the dice from Tsipras tonight. He's gambling for stability, writes

Ex-minister Dimitris Stratoulis/Left Platform hinted at new party:The 'no' of the people to austerity will find political expression in elex

New Democracy's Meimarakis says he will resist Tsipras rush to polls

Tsipras: I will seek the vote to rule and continue the programme

Greek PM Tsipras meeting with aides in Parliament with discussion focused on whether to hold snap polls on Sept 13 or 20, acc to state TV.

Europe broadly....

Ruble in free fall as Crude oil prices hit fresh multi-year lows.

Three big weeks in the eurozone south Sept 20: Greek elections Sept 27: Catalan regional election October 4: Portuguese election

Ukraine dollar bonds slip to multi-week lows on elusive debt deal - Reuters UK

debt decision seen imminent as bonds enter notice period via

Emerging markets & Commodities ....

$40 a barrel looms: Crude oil keeps seeking bottom amid supply glut

Masses of dead fish wash up miles from China chemical blast site. PHOTOS:

"Mystery" Cyanide Foam Covers Streets In China After Tianjin Storms As "Massive Fish Die-Off" Photographed

BofA: "A credit event in commodities may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic."

Emerging-market currencies battered by commodities slide, China turbulence: via

Only two commodities are up in price in 2015: Cotton and Cocoa

Currency Wars Continue As Kazakh Currency Crashes 25% After Peg Abandoned | Zero Hedge via

Broken BRICs: 's exports have collapsed to both (-17.8% YOY) and (-35.3% YOY). (via Pierpont)

Morning tweets.....

This is indeed an excellent piece by on the (sorry) state of the Greek fishing industry

From Creditors to Creditors with Love: ’s money comes to & is immediately forwarded to repay debts

Commission issues statement on the three-year programme for /via

Greece makes debt repayment, minister calls for snap polls

Just hours after 1st tranche of Greece's 3rd bailout released, meeting w key aides to decide on early elex (likely Sept or Oct).

The longer Tsipras waits, the more time for street protest and for the Left Platform to rally

The Judge Who Could be Greece’s First Female Prime Minister

1/ First 2,500 refugees arrive at on Thursday morning, were led to train station via

2/ State news agency ferry is set to return to to pick up more . Unclear if those in Ath will be helped to reach Gr borders

Greek Govt Has No Plan for Refugees Who Went to Athens Instead of Thessaloniki

Greece’s Missing Drivers of Growth: This post mines an issue we've discussed repeatedly, that the heavy dose o...

EP to discuss Tsipras' demand on September 3rd

Broader Europe.....

Rupert Murdoch backs Jeremy Corbyn for Labour leadership

Perspective: Slovakia - no more than 200 *Christian* migrants; while Germany revises its estimate for asylum seekers up from 250K to 800K.

Slovakia announces it will only take Christian refugees. PM Fico cites "security risks" in taking Muslim refugees:

Every industry group falling on European benchmark Stoxx600.Almost Eu300b wiped off market cap in 2 days

Clashes between , in Germany leave 13 injured

Woman held for starting seven wildfires on Costa del Sol

Spain's Púnica corruption probe extended to 12 city governments, including Madrid and Valencia

Ruble falls to 67.22 versus USD

Europe's today: 
*43% of EU's asylum apps made in Germany *Austria threats to sue EU for "unfair distribution" of refugees

How the Bundestag's MPs voted for the 3rd Greek package.  

- Yes - No - Abstain - No Vote

expects 800,000 asylum seekers, refugees & illegal migrants in 2015 via

Spain bad bank loans continue to fall as a % of total.

Ukrainian Hryvna (despite the frozen market) starts falling after Kazakhstani Tenge and Ruble EURUAH 24.62 +2.78% USDUAH 22.10 +3.51%

.: Norway's economy shrinks after oil price plunge

Emerging Market Items of Note , Commodities story ....

tenge tumbles after government allows currency to float

China exports as share of GDP fell from 36% to 22.6% from 2006-2014, may hit 21% this year. Fortress economy like US

’s Yuan Gains on Speculation PBOC Intervened to Curb Drop

The whole point of a petrocurrency is that it follows the price of oil. Petrocurrency issuers are beginning to discover this. Painfully.

Cyanide in waters near China blast site 277 times acceptable level: govt report

Oil is the Nigerian government’s largest source of revenue. That's where the trouble begins

Crude down:

- 6.5y low & near $40 - Build in US stockpiles & upset at Whiting refinery - WTI Sep contract expiry today - China slowdown

’s election board proposes November 1 for snap polls

PM says there is ‘nothing to worry about’ in

BREAKING — Star Media Chairman Murat Sancak attacked by gunmen, Sancak survived unscathed

UPDATE S.Korea orders civilian evacuation near west border, after exchanging fire with N.Korea

'A barrage of supposedly North Korean military shells was detected by (South Korea's) anti-battery radar' - reports

:Turkey's National Security Council to convene on Sept 2 under election gov't: Report


Low Oil Prices Could Break The “Fragile Five” Producing Nations: Five countries, and not necessarily the ones ...

Nice chart from of the RMB in some context since 2013 (all vs USD)

Tally of Huijin's new stakes in 5 Chinese state-owned banks (+ 1 insurer) h/t

BREAKING: China sovereign fund has bought stocks of 5 state banks + 1 insurer from public market, worth 23B RMB in total to stabilize market

Who suffers when Yuan falls? Global commodity prices have declined most on Yuan slump, Rupee & Real also lower

Citi has cut metal price forecasts given magnitude of price action following US rate hike expectations, RMB deval.

. This chart from RBS highlights that is biggest exporter of deflation. US Core CPI follows China PPI

govt needs devaluation of Ruble in order to get same amount of oil money in rubles when dollar price falls.

Bangkok’s deadly bomb attack may hit ’s last remaining growth pillar of tourism.