Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( August 11 , 2015 ) -- Special Greece Report - Third Bailout Talks Updates ( Government spokesman Theodoros Mihopoulos said in a tweet that “negotiations have been completed. There are some details left.” - what the Institutions think exactly , what details are left to be cleared , what Germany and other hardliners believe or think - not presently known but perhaps by the end of the week ! ) ........ China Devaluation of yuan a surprise move - move of 1.86 percent , the largest move in many years . Reactions and analysis of the move ......

Evening wrap....


HFE: 3yr €86bn deal lends more money than it has to roll over during its term. Indebtedness will rise as a result of this program.

's Financial Committee officials were informed on agrmnt @ conf call; reacted 'positively': EU officials. New conf call tomorrow.

PM Tsipras and Chancellor Merkel hold telephone call; Tsipras reportedly told Merkel he rejects bridge loan.

PM calls emergency session of Parliament to vote on new bailout deal on Thursday

Parliament speaker Constantopoùlou refuses to hold parl committees sessions tomorrow, plans to meet w Parl dep spkrs tomorrow night.

requests in letter to House Speaker Konstantopoulou 'immediate convening' of parliament plenum to vote on 3rd bailout

Migrants Riot on Greek Island of Kos, ‘Situation out of Control’ Says Mayor

DB: Our estimate is that a 1 pct yuan depreciation agains tthe dollar would trigger about $40 billion in capital flight.

Markets demanding response/clarity from ECB/BOJ on how they will react to China's currency warfare

agreement discussed by deputies all 28 EU-countries now → bridge loan still considered. Germany: quality more important than speed.

Privileges threatened, days may be numbered for Greece's 'everyman' farmers


and troika seal technical bailout deal, but politically could be tricky. 'no deal done yet' - eu dips


U.S. authorities expose the 1st major case of insider trading to cross into the cyber realm

Ukraine Bonds Rally on Bets of Compromise at California Meeting via

Morning  Tweets....


  1. The institutions agreement is a technical one, explains an EC's spoke. So now it's time for the Eurozone to give the political ok /1
  2. Later today deputee ECOFIN ministers (28 EU states) r holding a conf call to be informed about t agreement, not taking decisions /2
  3. Why involving the 28 countries and not just the Eurozone ones?Because the pos of a second bridge loan is still more than possible /3

Agreement "in principle " has to be translated to deal in reality ! Not there yet....



Tech agreement on Greek bailout included involvement of IMF officials -

Theodoros Mihopoulos: “negotiations have been completed. There are some details left.”

forced to vote through privatisations and deregulation this week BEFORE bailout proceeds

Officials - "some minor issues remain" in 3rd programme for , but suggest it's more or less done:

Greece close to clinching €86bn bailout deal – live: The debt mountain: With government debt heading for 200% ...

Germany Isolated as Greece Near €86 Billion Deal With Creditors; Ambitious Yes, Feasible No: In reaching a dea...

Stringing Greece along, one negotiation at a time...

Slovakian PM Fico tells he will never agree "to write off a single cent" of 's bailout debt:

So agrees to bailout in record time, accepts all creditors' demands, but Germany puts up resistance? We've entered parallel universe

Greece, the ultimate irony. 6 months of shameful Grexit threats, followed by a swift deal focused on reforms rather than austerity.

China .......

Goldman Sachs: China's central bank's surprising move to devalue RMB makes the foreign exchange system more "unclear"

My Forbes post on China's devaluation of the yen. It didn't have much choice, and there's more to come.

China Merchants Bank: 1) RMB may devalue further 2) likely more bank reserve ratio cuts 3) stock market uber pressure

This chart shows the magnitude of China's shock currency devaluation. Some fastFT coverage:

My view: like Euro QE, it will boost export earnings but will also drive capital outflows.

MORE: Shanghai benchmark index ended just flat today. The biggest winner today? All gold related stocks after PBOC surprisingly devalued RMB

BREAKING: China stock market struggled in W-shape trading Tuesday; investors divided on outlook after RMB devaluation

Precisely. Race to the bottom with no winners.

  • Chinese Premier Li told Editor in April he didn't want to see further devaluation of RMB. Today...

  • JP Morgan: Did China's central bank just open a Pandora's box by allowing RMB to suddenly devalue today? Next?