Friday, July 31, 2015

Economic News , Data And Views ( July 31 , 2015 ) Broader Europe in Focus ( EZ Unemployment Data , EZ Inflation Data , Ruble Falling Along With Oil Troubles , SNB Troubles - Big 1H Loss posted , IMF In Focus ) ..... Greece Updates ( Creditor Talks Items , Greece Political Items and Economic Data , Tsipras In Parliament This Morning - Defends Both Plan B and Former Fin Min Varoufakis ! ) China Stock Market Items ( Shaghhai Market Index lost 14.3 % for July , More Investigations Underway , IPO Market Hit By Suspension Of New IPOs )

Evening Wrap...

Athens, Greece

Mish's Global Econ Trend Analysis: Greek Stock Market Reopens (sort of); Math Perspective on the "Bailout" via

Takeaway -At 0 % int , w/ 3% annual primary surplus, assume all surplus goes to repay 1

creditors - still would take 50 years to repay 326bn worth of debt ! So , debt wall after any 2

of ten/ twenty years debt moratorium,  is still a 50 year debt wall to climb ! And assumes 0 interest and 3% P.S 3

So , this debt is basically "unpayable " debt ( thus a huge debt moratorium being trial ballooned .) Ultimate can kick 5

Bundesbank VP Claudia Buch says debt relief impossible because of no-bailout clause. So IMF is out for good

IMF approves allocation of next tranche of $1.7 billion to Ukraine

Capital controls are eased but companies see it as insufficient

Greek FinMin met troika chiefs, discussed fiscals, bank recap, privatization. 'Was convergence on some points, less on others.'

FinMin said inaugural discussion with institutions focused on fiscal issues, bank recap and privatization fund.


Morning  Tweets.....

Broader Europe.....

Eurostat says French unemployment rate was 10.2% in June, unchanged from June 2014

Crude Oil prints fresh session low at 47.68. $$ #

Germany Q2 retail sales -0.3% vs. + 1.8% Q1 Q2 retail sales France -0.1% + 1.5% vs. Q1

French consumer spending fell 0.1% in Q2 - Stats Office

Templeton group offers Ukraine 5% principal cut in first sign they are willing to take a haircut to the bonds -->

Which Regions are Most Affected by the Economic Crisis? (Infographic)

Italy's youth unemployment skyrockets to 44.2% (+1.9 percentage pts in a month) in June

Ita male unemployment hits new record high in June

What recovery? unemployment edged back up by 31k in June, mainly due to . Rate remains at 11.1%.

Unemployment in the eurozone. Greece: 25.6%. Germany 4.7%

inflation stays close but above Zero. July CPI YoY remains at 0.2%, matching estimates.

Ruble in free fall. Ruble weakens beyond 60 per Dollar, weakest since March as Brent oil continues to drop.

is poster child for why doesn’t work. Unemployment in Finland increased by most in May YoY. (via BBG)

SNB posts 1H loss of CHF50.1bn, 1H results driven by currency, price developments. 1H Loss on Gold at CHF3.2bn.

Reiterates Unwillingness to Fund Without Debt Relief.

German pwr in Commission: Holds 10.2% of posts (more than any other EU country) and 9 of the 28 Commissioner's Cabinet Heads are German.


EU sees 'nothing new' in stance on Greek debt, next package, EU spokesperson says. (BBG)

Bailout money goes to Greece, only to flow out again

May Retail Turnover +2.5% YoY from rev -3.1% in Apr. Retail Volume +4.2% YoY in May from rev -1.8% in Apr (ELSTAT).

And, quite right too… RT : Tsipras gives full cover to Varoufakis

Greek PM defends 'emergency' plan for potential exit.

PM Tsipras defends Varoufakis' Plan B, says country had to prepare a contingency plan.

Barter is booming in Greece for the first time since the Nazi occupation

Dec 14 - Jun 15, in 7 mths banks lost almost half of the volume of deposits gone in 33 mths Oct 09 - June 12

Bailout talks to shift gear

GDP collapse not just a story about fiscal austerity. Greek banking sector’s balance sheet contracted by 20%.

Why did keep ‘Plan B’ in secret? - prof. James Galbraith explains


BREAKING: China announces new rules on stock index futures trading to curb speculation and tighten supervision following recent market crash

From Aug 3, China Financial Futures Exchange will closely monitor any "abnormal trading behavior" and report to gov

BREAKING: To suspend new IPOs is necessary amid market crash but such IPO suspensions will be just temporary - Chinese securities regulator

Chinese securities regulator: China will continue to push "market-oriented" stock market & IPO reform forward after recent market correction

BREAKING: Key Shanghai stock index lost 14.3% in total July; down 1.13% today amid CSRC investigation into brokers in Hong Kong & Singapore