Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( July 29 , 2015 ) ..... Greece Updates For Consideration ( Wide ranging Interview Of Prime Minister Tsipras , ECB Keeps GR Bank ELA Ceiling At Same Level , Creditor Talks For Third Bailout Underway - Technical Teams in Athens ) ..... Broader Europe ( Russia - Ruble & Brent in focus , Italy poll sees trust of Renzi fall to 35 % , Germany and GEXIT in focus , Spanish poll data , ECB item of note , ESFS in news )

Evening wrap.....

First item isn't knew but worth another look....

The area has not delivered. What went wrong in the last 7 years?

SYRIZA left wing hoping to block Tsipras on bailout talks ie if no emergency congress

Capital controls have weekly cost of 2.8 bln for GDP

€zone ask to get 50b via privatizations. Austrian railways shows interest in takingover Greek rw -not paying a single € for it. Ah

Greek FinMin official: Tech talks on energy/licenses/fiscals/tax went v well. IMF rep due in Athens tmrw. Gov officials discussed bank recap

Athens Stock Exchange not opening today & unlikely tomorrow. Greek press said earlier there was a number of technical hurdles & could delay


Der Spiegel: Bulgaria, Greece's New Treasury - - Sofia News Agency via

Morning Tweets....

[BREAKING] ECB to keep Greek Bank ELA Ceiling untouched- Bloomberg

From reports of last 24hr, seems most likely: Greek banks hobble on under current capital control regime until after recapitalisation. [1/2]

i.e. no further changes to ELA ceiling and/or collateral haircut (provided of course bailout talks run through to conclusion) [2/2]

Shorter : up is down, left is right, less is more, black is white, blame everyone but me and preferably yourselves.

Deputy Finance Minister Trifon Alexiadis : fiscal targets for this year are being negotiated with Quartet

Greece restarts creditor talks in Athens - Financial Times

says SYRIZA should hold party congress early September after agreement with lenders sealed in August

: Syriza should hold emergency conference in early September, try to avoid elections

RT : If I do not have parliamentary majority, I will have to call snap elections

Tsipras attacks SYRIZA dissenters

And who would trust the left if it stays in power while betraying its popular mandate?

PM Tsipras says he didn't ask the Greek people to leave the . Claiming that 'No' vote was pro-drachma is fake ~

PM Tsipras says there cannot be à la carte support to the government.

on Syriza divisions: We have to admit that attempt for Syriza to change from a party of factions to a united party did not succeed

Tsipras says there's need to point to the fact that @ recent riots in Syntagma Sq there were 15 foreigners arrested ~



No ownership

Just as promised in 2012 - Tsipras: we got a commitment for debt relief, which will take place after the first review (in November)

, "The Left will go bust if it doesn't assume the historic responsibility of being in power."

: Greek people are like fugitives who’ve escaped austerity cell in prison and now being thrown into solitary confinement

: Eurobank and NBG would collapse first as ECB would request collaterals to be paid back. Then the other banks would follow

: Tax hikes demanded by creditors wrong. Better improve tax collection, fight tax evasion

: The damage from capital controls is reversible. The prospect of Grexit will be on the table until debt relief comes

Sometimes, some things are better left unsaid...

: Greek mass media and opposition had field day over so-called plan B, seeking criminal action against Varoufakis

Greek bourse on course to reopen as MSCI threats to downgrade to a status that includes Jamaica and Zimbabwe.

Broader Europe .....

consumer confidence stable at high levels in August helped by favorable labour market, rising wages and house prices & low rates

New poll: Trust in Italian PM Renzi down to 35% in July. Peak was 67% after EP election last year.

From the archives: Valencia's Terra Mítica theme park: a forgotten fiasco


Spain poll [Sigma-Dos]: PP 29% PSOE 24% Podemos 20% Ciudadanos 11% IU 4% /via

Russian ruble strengthens, Central Bank stops currency purchases

Citi expects CenBank of to cut rates further albeit at slower paces b/c of Ruble rout. Sees 50bps cut on Fri.

Central Bank fails to prop up the Ruble as Brent oil continues to drop. Ruble trade at almost 60 per Dollar.

QE infinity? RBS: Linker market prices inflation to miss projections utterly. In that case, ECB would surely act

losing out in Asia to rival Germany. German exports to China keep rising, Japan's flat

Moody's: EFSF's creditworthiness resilient to any Greek debt restructuring. Guarantors matter

Is Gexit the new Grexit? While index has dropped by half, probability that Germany leaves the Euro has risen.

Sentix index has nearly halved after the agreement between Greece and Creditors. But probability still at 25%