Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( July 29 , 2015 ) ..... Greece Updates For Consideration ( Wide ranging Interview Of Prime Minister Tsipras , ECB Keeps GR Bank ELA Ceiling At Same Level , Creditor Talks For Third Bailout Underway - Technical Teams in Athens ) ..... Broader Europe ( Russia - Ruble & Brent in focus , Italy poll sees trust of Renzi fall to 35 % , Germany and GEXIT in focus , Spanish poll data , ECB item of note , ESFS in news )


Evening wrap.....




First item isn't knew but worth another look....






The area has not delivered. What went wrong in the last 7 years?















SYRIZA left wing hoping to block Tsipras on bailout talks ie if no emergency congress






Capital controls have weekly cost of 2.8 bln for GDP



















€zone ask to get 50b via privatizations. Austrian railways shows interest in takingover Greek rw -not paying a single € for it. Ah










Greek FinMin official: Tech talks on energy/licenses/fiscals/tax went v well. IMF rep due in Athens tmrw. Gov officials discussed bank recap





Athens Stock Exchange not opening today & unlikely tomorrow. Greek press said earlier there was a number of technical hurdles & could delay





LAGARDE SAYS GREECE NEEDS SIGNIFICANT DEBT RESTRUCTURING





Der Spiegel: Bulgaria, Greece's New Treasury - - Sofia News Agency via










Morning Tweets....









[BREAKING] ECB to keep Greek Bank ELA Ceiling untouched- Bloomberg












From reports of last 24hr, seems most likely: Greek banks hobble on under current capital control regime until after recapitalisation. [1/2]










i.e. no further changes to ELA ceiling and/or collateral haircut (provided of course bailout talks run through to conclusion) [2/2]










Shorter : up is down, left is right, less is more, black is white, blame everyone but me and preferably yourselves.










Deputy Finance Minister Trifon Alexiadis : fiscal targets for this year are being negotiated with Quartet







Greece restarts creditor talks in Athens - Financial Times










says SYRIZA should hold party congress early September after agreement with lenders sealed in August







: Syriza should hold emergency conference in early September, try to avoid elections







RT : If I do not have parliamentary majority, I will have to call snap elections






Tsipras attacks SYRIZA dissenters










And who would trust the left if it stays in power while betraying its popular mandate?











PM Tsipras says he didn't ask the Greek people to leave the . Claiming that 'No' vote was pro-drachma is fake ~










PM Tsipras says there cannot be à la carte support to the government.









on Syriza divisions: We have to admit that attempt for Syriza to change from a party of factions to a united party did not succeed









Tsipras says there's need to point to the fact that @ recent riots in Syntagma Sq there were 15 foreigners arrested ~










Wow! TSIPRAS SAYS BAILOUT IS WRONG RECIPE, WILL FIGHT TO OVERTURN IT









What about reforms under new ESM programme? TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE WILL ONLY IMPLEMENT EURO SUMMIT DECISIONS







No ownership










Just as promised in 2012 - Tsipras: we got a commitment for debt relief, which will take place after the first review (in November)








, "The Left will go bust if it doesn't assume the historic responsibility of being in power."









: Greek people are like fugitives who’ve escaped austerity cell in prison and now being thrown into solitary confinement









: Eurobank and NBG would collapse first as ECB would request collaterals to be paid back. Then the other banks would follow









: Tax hikes demanded by creditors wrong. Better improve tax collection, fight tax evasion









: The damage from capital controls is reversible. The prospect of Grexit will be on the table until debt relief comes








Sometimes, some things are better left unsaid...











: Greek mass media and opposition had field day over so-called plan B, seeking criminal action against Varoufakis









Greek bourse on course to reopen as MSCI threats to downgrade to a status that includes Jamaica and Zimbabwe.










Broader Europe .....









consumer confidence stable at high levels in August helped by favorable labour market, rising wages and house prices & low rates










New poll: Trust in Italian PM Renzi down to 35% in July. Peak was 67% after EP election last year.









From the archives: Valencia's Terra Mítica theme park: a forgotten fiasco









  retweeted






Spain poll [Sigma-Dos]: PP 29% PSOE 24% Podemos 20% Ciudadanos 11% IU 4% /via






Russian ruble strengthens, Central Bank stops currency purchases









Citi expects CenBank of to cut rates further albeit at slower paces b/c of Ruble rout. Sees 50bps cut on Fri.











Central Bank fails to prop up the Ruble as Brent oil continues to drop. Ruble trade at almost 60 per Dollar.










QE infinity? RBS: Linker market prices inflation to miss projections utterly. In that case, ECB would surely act









losing out in Asia to rival Germany. German exports to China keep rising, Japan's flat












Moody's: EFSF's creditworthiness resilient to any Greek debt restructuring. Guarantors matter











Is Gexit the new Grexit? While index has dropped by half, probability that Germany leaves the Euro has risen.

























Sentix index has nearly halved after the agreement between Greece and Creditors. But probability still at 25%