Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( June 30 , 2015 ) - Greece Updates ( Rumors on Last Minute Offer by Juncker Being Considered - Or Not By Tsipras , Rumors Of Counter Offer , Last Day State Of Play - Contemplating Default and Grexit , Greece Economic Data ) ...... Broader Europe Updates ( Data of Note From Around the EZ , Bonds and Stock Market Data , Grexit Items )


Evening items...

Its official. We just defaulted on our IMF loan.

Dep PM said BoG requested from the to discuss on Wed increase in the limit for Greek banks.

  • RBS estimates minimum cost of at around €239bn, assuming new Greek currency would be worth 40% less than Euro

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    Greek Deputy PM Dragasakis tells ERT he advised Tsipras to accept lenders' offer & suggests referendum could be called off



    In order for the short extension 2 have taken place last deadline was last .Now have 2follow procedures.Application for a new loan



    Greece submitted a request to postpone a €1.5b payment due today to IMF until November - Greek Deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis.


    Greek Govt told EG it could either recommend Yes vote, or call off referendum if new lending can be agreed --Rtrs sources


    Greece's tone *completely* different compared to Tsipras yesterday. Says he wants solution, no blame games





    German FinMin Schaeuble Told Conservative Lawmakers That He’d Advise The ECB Not To Hike ELA - Sources




    Merkel says won't discuss new Greek request before referendum: lawmaker


    According to letter to , is seeking €29.1bn as part of new 3rd bailout.

    Until 2-yr program is agreed & in force, requests extension of curr program 4 a short period so technical default is not triggered.


    ’s request for 3rd bailout on the eve of IMF default shows that default (& ) is a negotiation strategy


    BREAKING - Greece asks for 2-year bailout program from European Stability Mechanism to cover financial needs with restructuring of debt


    Tsakalotos discusses post-referendum plans for Banks.


    * Greece's chief negotiators says that accepting proposals of institutions would not have turned economy around - RTRS

    Morning items

    Greece - the last day before the end of the extension ....


    Skai TV reports that Greek gov't sending its own proposal to institutions

    Last minute deal in offering, required move by by midnight last night. Nothing. He must accept Fri proposals & campaign for Yes

    At midday presser, confirmation that spoke to last night to get him to u-turn. But wanted it by midnight


    Greek gvt official says there are "initiatives" continuing on negotiations between athens and EU for a last-minute deal on bailout - RTRS

    * Greek banks may be considered solvent for several days after any state default -german member of ECB banks supervisory board - RTRS



    Is anyone else reporting this / confirming it?

    Greece rejects pleas to change course

    Greek Ministry asks pension funds to give reserves to BoG so state can pay beneficiaries of other funds. Gov seeks bank loan.

    Schäuble angered by Juncker’s chief of staff’s interference in handling of Greek crisis

    Δικαιολογία για το bail-in ψάχνει ο αλήτης....

    FT's Spiegel says Greek official denied that Tsipras is re-considering Juncker offer

    After elliptical response to last-ditch early today, Greek govt said to be preparing counter-proposal in bid to reach a deal.

    EU source: would have to accept proposal of 3 institutions published on Sunday&campaign yes.This could lead to another EG etc.


    EU's last minute-offer impossible in Germany due to need of parlam. decision, Berlin sources say. If Tsipras would ever agree...


    Gov't re-examining Juncker's last-minute proposal, sources tell Some gov't members believe should accept.

    Vima newspaper reports Tsipras under pressure from some ministers, including Deputy PM Dragasakis to accept Juncker deal


    Sr off'l denies to me that reconsidering 11th-hr offer. But Athens may propose something else this afternoon


    Would be surprising if didn't offer something. In blame game, you must always appear constructive


    prob just spin allowing Tspiras to say to Greeks;i tried one last time but they insist on keeping us beneath neoliberal jackboot etc

    So much for Juncker being a "friend" of the Greeks

    Germany's "velvet divorce" proponents growing louder. CSU's Soeder: "orderly, judicious and considered exit plan best path for both sides"

    Greek FinMin says week's pension withdrawal limit 120 euros, deposits safe before & after referendum on creditor proposal targeting pensions

    Spanish PM Rajoy: If 'No' wins, "there will be no alternative" for but to leave the euro. ()

    Italian PM Renzi says not acceptable that "some Greek ship owners can continue not to pay tax thanks to our money". ()

    Italian PM Renzi: "We haven't scrapped early retirements for Italians so that the Greeks could keep theirs". ()

    Renzi: "The Greeks don't have to say whether they love their PM more than Juncker, but whether they want to stay in € or not".

    Renzi: "One thing is to ask for flexibility. Another is to think you're the cleverest one who doesn't respect the rules".

    Italian PM Renzi: The 'No' from Tsipras to the European Commission's latest proposal was "uselessly obstinate". ()

    French FinMin Sapin: Greek referendum will have consequences. 'No' vote on Sun means real risks for . 'Yes' means talks will resume.

    's default a done deal? Default probability derived from CDS jumped to 90% on Mon from 71% on Jun26. (via BBG)


    May Producer Price Index -4.6% YoY and +0.7% MoM. 12-month trailing index -3.1% (ELSTAT).


    Apr Retail Turnover -3.3% YoY from rev -0.6% in Mar. Retail Volume -1.9% YoY in Apr from rev +1% in Mar (ELSTAT).

    Broader Europe - Data and News....


    0.4% rise in in Q1 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage points from previous estimate


    Euro area flash inflation: Food +1.2%, Services +1.0%, Other goods +0.4%, Energy -5.1% in June 2015

    Unemployment rate across Germany unchanged in June at 6.4%

    Italian jobless rate unchanged at 12.4% in May

    Deutsche Bank: A Grexit isn't as big of a deal for the as everyone thinks.

    Peripheral spreads on the rise again. 10yr Italian yield premium over Bunds jumps to 165bps.

    Periphery spreads widen on Greek default angst. While 10y German bund yields drop 4bps, 10y Italian yields rise 5bps

    's Dax extends losses. Now trades below 11k.

    Bund Future opens higher to the day. 10y German Bund yields drop to 0.76%.