Thursday, June 11, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( June 11 , 2015 ) Greece State of Play - Merkel & Tsipras Talks Wednesday Fail to Achieve Accord . Gaps between sides still present on critical areas such as agreed primary surplus numbers for Greece. Will there be a further extension to the current program for GR - and who is pushing this ? Additional items of note ........Broader Europe - Bond market tumult continues across the Eurozone , Is Germany against a third Bailout Program for Greece ? Additional items of note ......... Overnight Asia - South Korea , New Zealand and china in focus - rate actions and data splash !



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: The percentage of part timers who choose to work part time because they cannot find a full time job is 68.6%



  1. Greek long term unemployment rate was 71.6% in Q1 (i.e. looking for a job > 1 year)






Greek youth unemployment rate was 51.9% in Q1 Men 47.5% Women 57.0%











Greece: German gvt will push for an extension of the current second programme, which is set to expire at the end of June, according to Bild.







EU Moscovici: Nearing the 'landing strip' on a Greek deal but still divergences, 'notably on the primary surplus."


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Wonkblog: Greece’s Groundhog Day may be giving way to Judgment Day





Greek default imminent without 's help – French media








Ruling on pension cuts will cost state 1 to 1.5 bln euros






Merkel considers Greek options as Tsipras wins aid for banks









TAC's Apoteker: is now running primary deficit. If it defaults, pensioners will not get paid which is suicidal. A deal is inevitable




S&P expects GDP to contract 1.5% in 2015 rebounding by 2% in 2016.






may request extension of bailout programme until Mar 2016, acc to local media.






Council of State orders 2012 pension cuts to be reversed, costing up to 1.5 bln.






Minister of State re Greek proposal and reaction.







Greece deflation weakened further in May. EU HICP at -1.4% vs -1.8% April.







Broader Europe....




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DB's Reid on Bund rout: It’s worth highlighting that since our data starts in 1807 yields have been >1% on 99.6% of monthly observations.





Bond market rout continues. Govt bond yields rise across the .





Euro drops below $1.13 as Germany against 3rd aid programme for Greece under any circumstances









Morning Note: 1. Osborne selling RBS at a loss. 2. Greece back + forth. 3. BoK + RBNZ cut rates. Kiwi deep dives.










French non farm employment in Q1 Industry -8,100 Consruction -10,900 Services +18,300






French accelerates to six-month high of +0.3% y/y in May - INSEE







Central Bank of raises key rate to 0.75%. Bank says it seems apparent that a sizable rate increase will be necessary in August



Overnight Asia....




South Korea cuts interest rate to record low 1.5 percent






China's industrial production growth fell to 6.2% Y/Y in 2015 through May ... wheels are falling off now















China's Global Ambitions Take Shape As AIIB Structure Revealed, Germany Pledges Full Support