Saturday, June 27, 2015

Economic News and Views ( June 27 , 2015 ) - Greece Updates organized in three parts ( A ) Greece July 5th Referendum - mechanics of referendum , news and views related to same ) .... (B) State of play within Greece as to Banks / Atms , ELA , Capital controls - hopefully provided without excessive hysteria and drama and wild rumors and views ..... (C) Creditor Talks , Domestic and International politics - again hopefully presented without excessive hysteria / drama and exreme views



(A) Referendum related items

Tsipras' Bailout Referendum Sham | of naked capitalism doesn't see good things here

Referendum with no capital controls = more withdrawals from Greek banks = larger Target2 liability for Greece. ECB, your move

Dijsselbloem: Referendum was "sad decision" for , as "it has closed the door on further negotiations".

Tsipras’ address on referendum [Text]

Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock [Update]

Germany's Gabriel open to Greek referendum with caveats

Parliament to approve tonight at midnight local (local media)

Regardless of if you agree with referendum, a failure on all sides led us here. The Greeks deserved better

FinMin Scicluna questions timing of Greek referendum after deadline. Says timing of referendum will create instability. (BBG)

SORTED refQ saga:


40% of Greeks have to participate in referendum to be valid. Opposition parties gearing to boycott.

It's likely that referendum is posed as "matter of national importance", which requires 40% participation by voters & 50%+1 majority for yes

Citi on Greek referendum: It also is meant to maximize the European exposure by leaving the ball in their court.

JPM: Even if referendum passes, it's unclear whether can remain solvent beyond Jun 30, when a €1.6bn loan payment to the is due

DB: A very significant period of uncertainty has now been initiated. The question of Greece's Eurozone membership has been officially opened

(B)  Situation regarding Banks / Capital controls / Empty ATMs and Bank Lines / ELA - IMO , perfectly rational to withdraw some funds under circumstances...

More than 400 million euros withdrawn from banks in 12 hrs since PM made referendum call 1:00am


senior BoG tells me cap controls not the issue now; rather whether ecb continues ELA. if not, banks close "indefinitely"


same source says there's enough money for the weekend, though outflows bigger than expected


SPD's Schneider: ELA needs to stop, needs to introduce capital controls, must b clear it's in or out

"Empty" ATM near Athens HT

Alpha Bank’s E-banking Freezes Transfers until Monday

(C)  Political ( domestic / international )  state of play..


will ask fellow finance ministers for a bailout extension of “a few weeks....” via

EZ: We've given you tons of money and you've wasted it. Greece: You've given us money to repay creditors then crushed our economy

Here's on why Tsipras goes for referendum on 5 July — Medium details negotiations, expects 'NO' vote

And we're off. emergency parliament session begins

House speaker says debate on 2 docs creditors presented June25

Interior minister Nikos Voutsis takes stand as responsible min for the request

Voutsis: Inconceivable for europe to disregard mandates on which government are elected

voutsis: we ask for this take-it-or leave it ultimatum to be voted down

Two senior officials tell me it's highly unlikely will extend bailout beyond Tues.

PASOK will vote against the referendum in parliament today, YES on on Jul 5.

venizelos says constitution prohibits referendum on fiscal issues and defines national issues as foreign policy.

venizelos requests discussion on constitutionality of the referendum proposal.

Venizelos arguing that it is not feasible to hold referendum by Sunday, accuses gov't of trying to stage "coup"

Just a couple of hours before PM televised address, this is what FinMin told .

Working Group on at noon (GR), Finance Ministers meet at 3pm (GR) (via ). Programme extension in the spotlight.

parliament plenary session at noon, at 3pm (GR), vote on at 7pm (GR).


Greeks will be present at Eurogroup meeting and if better offer made may withdraw referendum say Athens sources

I wonder how the reacts. Will they have a look at their own research on austerity and debt dynamics now, and insist on debt relief?

EU still cannot allow , as it’s very costly on so many levels. in a tough spot now, decision above EG’s pay grade.


Enormous sense of betrayal in Brussels. First that there was no pre-warning of referendum. 2nd that Tsipras has already chosen his answer


Senior official from member state: "there will be no extension" [to 's bailout]. ~

Suspect this is pure spin & Draghi actually said without bailout extension his hands are tied.

Spain's Podemos calls referendum "brave decision"


To take 'right' decisions Eurogroup should be aware of all (potential) developments in . Might be too early to take decisions now.


If Greek programme not extended, incredibly difficult for ECB not to cut ELA off. Read our new blog post:


Merkel ally Krichbaum says doesn't see majority in conservative party for Greek extension trough July 5th. (RTRS)

Referendum will be called off if Greek proposal is accepted, says Kammenos

Eurozone meeting on Greece still on despite referendum plan