Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Economic News , Data and Views ( Greece in focus ( State of play for Creditor talks / Greece proposals to Troika , Greece economic data reflects worsening trend , payments watch , Debt to GDP item ) ... Broader Europe - Spain / Bond Land / Oil in focus ...... China housing bubble leading to stock mania ?



govt contemplating imposing a 1/1000 tax on bank withdrawals; hopes measure will bring in €180mil. via

Germany's Schaeuble says 'skeptical' whether Greek debt deal reachable by Monday

Imminent Greek payments to the IMF: - €200MM tomorrow; - €780MM May 12

willing to move ahead on key asset sales to appease lenders - Senior Privatizations Official via

In forecasts, says tax collection at end-2014 was so low that 2014 primary surplus only 0.4%, down from 1.7% estimate

HRADF said it does not negotiate w/ any party change in the terms of the tender 4 the sale of a 67% stake in Piraeus Port (OLP). .

MoF collected revenues of €110 mln from the settlement (in up to 100 instalments) of €2.2 bln tax arrears in 13 days (by end-Apr).

EC forecasts Greek debt/GDP ratio at 180.2% in 2015 (from 170.2% before) and 173.5% in 2016 (from 159.2% previously).

EC expects Greek GDP growth at 0.5% in 2015 (from 2.5% before) and 2.9% in 2016 (from 3.6% previously).

Perhaps a more useful measure of mood than usual, vague "do you want to stay in at any cost" question.

Amid reports of IMF upping pressure in Greek debt talks, Tsipras 'discussed matters relating to negotiations' with Lagarde, his office said.

Broader Europe....

The FinMin is perhaps under the impression GDP grows with meetings

German FinMin Schäuble says 's report on IMF's position misleading. IMF “did not say” Greek debt cut needed for more aid.

RBC says Bund sell-off has quite some way to go. Expects 10yr yields to rise to 0.75% by Q3. 10yr yields now at 0.46%

Spain unemployment has now fallen to *only* 4.33 million (23% of economically active).

Spain's labour market had another good month in April, unemployment down sa 50k, and 7.5% (351k) y-o-y.

Italian & Spanish yields now steadily ticking up in lockstep. Only relapse in inflation expectations can change this.

Some tried to argue this was only short term technical blip. Not sure what they're arguing now.

OPEC says speculation played large role in drop in prices.

As the housing bubble is popping another bubble is forming: 's households rotate out of real estate into stocks

China Stocks Tumble Most In 4 Months; Australia Cuts Rates To Record Low