Saturday, February 21, 2015

European Financial and Political Wrap ( February 21 - 22 , 2015 ) - Greece reaches a provision deal with its creditors for a four month extension ( news and views on same ) ..... Russia downgraded to junk ( news and views related to Ukraine - Russia situation )


Tweets.....


2/22/15.......



ΜT I just translated the statement released by Manolis Glezos slamming govt's realistic turn.




FinMin Varoufakis tweets Greek govt's reform list is almost ready but hasn't been sent to the Commission yet

7 hours ag














This is actually a big call. MS says latest Friday's deal does *not* reduce the odds of Greece leaving Eurozone.





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"De Guindos, at times raising his voice, railed against Varoufakis in Friday’s meeting" - Bloomberg Business












's acute problems are not over yet, 's Stubb says. Indeed, 5yr default probability still at 72%.






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New polls suggest Greeks will accept concessions new government made to buy time from rest of Europe. via












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EU Rep. of Austerity tells Greece to do what has never been done ":












Iconic Syriza MEP Manolis Glezos lashes at Greek gov for Eurogroup compromise: "I apologize to the Greek ppl"







Is there a game theory strategy where side A has zero bargaining power and side B doesn't give a damn what happens to side A?




2 views I'm picking up on Syriza-so-far: 1st camp: They smash lots of crockery in Europe, get nothing, & Greece's economy pays;





2nd camp: Syriza had to fight, may get little, but any extra oxygen at all helps.







Bottom line: Eurogroup merely "notes" Greek request, doesn't grant. Ball in Syriza's court: policies must convince.






1. Syriza has to fight NOW vs toxic measures (labor, tax, pension, 3-4.5% surplus) that sank ND govt. Not elected to enact 1st, talk later





2. Greeks expect Syriza to demand "10," get 2. If you ask 2, you get 0. Being nice in Brussels got ND gov't nowhere






3. Has Greece won elbow room? Last week: - accept troika process - avert cap controls - fight another day on policy This week more decisive.






4. For many Greeks, fact that "We stood up" v important. About humiliation. Brussels bubble doesn't get




RT : 5. Game remains heavily unequal chicken, GRC v GER. The rest get cameos.





Argument against SYRIZA demands was 1 vs 18 but on Fri, negotiations were with Varoufakis in 1 room & Schaeuble in other






The Greeks will certainly react when they'll hear the specific measures. Until now they think it's a fudge agrmnt.




Yes but we know what is expected for tomorrow night. The people still don't.



"Target the ELA access points. This rebellion must be crushed"





hurdle to 3rd prog is & always was: will Ger force Grc to accept same Autumn 2014 catalogue of measures to get tranche first?





2/21/15.....


Productive Recon. Minister Lafazanis says privatisations will not go ahead







govt spox Sakellaridis after cabinet meeting: the Ministers welcomed govt’s steps in Eurogroup via







Senior Minister tells after cabinet meeting re the reforms list: “everything is ready”



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Benchmarking the Greece/Eurogroup Bailout Memo and Process: Greece and the Eurozone have entered into what amo...









No one can say whether Greece got a good deal or not until we know what reforms it signs up to in exchange for the 4month extension. Telos.






Greek bonds declined in days before provisional deal was reached





Greece says eurozone deal won time as cash bled from banks






Greek bailout deal faces review by euro officials next week








Greek depositors will vote w/ their feets while says deal won time as cash bled from banks.









ICYMI ---> bends to Eurozone will to clinch short-term deal. Our analysis of yesterday's Eurogroup agreement:









Greek gov. got what it wanted. Open banks in Tuesday and fourth month period for real negotiations on debt sustainability.









Anything for to sell in ? Lower primary surplus, own reforms (1st time) & return of ECB waiver (maybe). Tough one






: I work on the assumption will put forward a serious set of reforms on Monday





Europe generally....


2/22/15.....


DETAILS: Witnesses say device thrown from car in attack in , E.Ukraine






MT : Eyewitness: Explosive device thrown from vehicle passing by rally: |






Ukraine Security Service detained those suspected of committing anti- terrorist attack in which killed 3 & injured 10 people









2/21/15....


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 Top news story
James Forsyth: If Mariupol falls, we could end up at war with Russia... - Daily Mail: Daily MailJames Forsyth:...




























Europe "Isolates" Putin? Considers "Reframing" Energy Relations With Russia









Ruble’s best rally seen being short-lived. downgrade by Moody's will trigger selling.







Ouch! Moody's downgrade will lead to country's ejection from Barclays' Global Aggregate index that is benchmarked by $2trn worldwide





Moody's has cut rating to junk, outlook negative as govts fin strength will diminish from FX reserve erosion.





Thousands take to streets in demo















20,000 Anti-Maidan activists flock to central Moscow ahead of rally






Up to 500 Kiev law enforcers remain encircled at Debaltsevo, says Donetsk republic