Thursday, January 22, 2015

Europe Watch ( January 22 , 2015 ) - Pre- ECB Decision , items to consider with your morning coffee ... Heavy on looming ECB Decision and Greece Election

Evening Tweets....

The ECB Just Changed the Ball Game for Other Central Banks

"A €1000bn QE programme would only boost price levels by 0.2-0.8 after two years" - SocGen


Morgan Stanley cuts forecasts after 's historic QE move. Sees now $1.05 for end-2015 vs $1.12.

Why , and stand out as being particularly affected by . (tables by Jefferies)

Next technical level to watch in EUR/USD would be the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1213. Now 1.1475. (via Pierpont)

Danish CB cut rates, again: DANISH CENTRAL BANK CD RATE -0.35% from -0.20%

stressed is the "sole decision maker" on , suggests NCBs cannot stop purchases even if they wanted to

Hard for to get - needs review done, prog confirmed & ECB owns 30% its debt already

speaks to crowd of thousands at Omonia Square

SYRIZA's Tsipras: Voters' message will be no more memorandum, no more subjugation

Morning Tweets....

is about to make history.

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged - the big news comes at 8:30 EST on the Conference call !



keeps all rates unchg. Main rate remains at 0.05%, deposit rate at -0.2%.

As we head into , there is talk of a more substantial program. Bunds sold off. 10yr ylds jump to 0.57% (via Citi)

Market Wrap: Futures Unchanged As Algos Patiently Await The ECB's "Monumental Decision"

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With less than two hours until the ECB unveils its first official quantitative easing program, the markets appear to be in a unchanged daze. Well, not all markets: the Japanese bond market overnight suffered its worst sell off in months on a jump in volume, although for context this means the 10Year dropping from 0.25% to 0.32%. Whether this is a hint of the "sell the news" that may follow Draghi's announcement is unclear, although Europe has seen comparable weakness across its bond space as well and the US 10 Year has sold off all the way to 1.91%, which is impressive considering it was trading under 1.80% just a few days ago. Stocks for now are largely unchanged with futures barely budging and tracking the USDJPY which after rising above 118 again overnight, has seen active selling ever since the close of the Japanese session.


How short is the market going into ECB? A lot. Leveraged community bets w/ net 167,851 positions on lower Euro.

's Stubb says must avoid Greek dirty exit at all costs. 's 3yr yields drop to 10.8%.

PM Antonis Samaras to deliver a national address at 4 p.m.

Russian extnl debt fell $130bn in H22014, but $50-$60bn due to $ impact of depreciation on rouble-denominated debt.

Chart: Swiss 1-year government yield. Significant deflation being priced in -

Greek success story continues at all odds to defy g̶r̶a̶v̶i̶t̶y̶ RT Greek public debt reaches 176% of GDP.

Tsipras' Financial Times column -> MT End Austerity Before Fear Kills Greek Democracy