Wednesday, June 4, 2014

US Economic Data - June 4 , 2014 -- Big ADP Miss: 179K Jobs Far Below Expectations, Lowest Print Since Jan ...... US trade Deficit jumps to 47.2 Billion for April ....

Zero Hedge ....


Big ADP Miss: 179K Jobs Far Below Expectations, Lowest Print Since Jan

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The post-weather bounce is over in exuberant employment trends appears to be over. After January's plunge, the last 3 months have seen beats but May's data -printing at 179k (against expectations of 210k) is a major disappointment for the extrapolators and presses job growth back to its lowest since January. Rubbing salt in the wound of recovery, April's data was revised downward. It was so bad, even the permabullish Mark Zandi was unable to spin the data:  "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”


For the first time in a while, we actually saw a job decline in one subset of companies: those with 500-999 worker:
From the report:
Goods-producing employment rose by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs over the month, down slightly from 16,000 in April. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in May, up from April’s 2,000 and the largest number since December last year.

Service-providing employment rose by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to the lower overall number in May - adding 46,000 jobs, down from 75,000 in April. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, the same number of jobs added in April. The 6,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down slightly from 8,000 last month.

"After a strong post-winter rebound in April, job growth in May slowed somewhat,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The 179,000 jobs added figure is higher than May of last year and in line with the average over the past twelve months.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
The full chart breakdown:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry



US trade Deficit jumps to 47.2 Billion for April ....



What Q2 GDP Rebound? Trade Deficit Soars To 2 Year High, To Slam Lofty Q2 GDP Expectations

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The US trade balance collapsed in April dashing hopes for the exuberant hockey-stock rebound in Q2 GDP. This is the biggest trade deficit since April 2012 and the biggest miss from expectations since October 2008. The last 2 months have seen the biggest slide in the deficit in a year as trade gaps with the European Union and South Korea reach records and the deficit with China surged by $7billion to $28 billion. Impots of capital goods, autos, and consumer goods all set records. And Q2 GDP downgrades in 3...2...1...


The details:
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in April 2014 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $44.2 billion in March (revised) to $47.2 billion in April as exports decreased and imports increased. The previously published March deficit was $40.4 billion. The goods deficit increased $3.3 billion from March to $65.8 billion in April; the services surplus increased $0.2 billion from March to $18.6 billion in April.
A long-term chart of the trade deficit showing the dramatic, GDP -reducing, deterioration in recent months:
Exports
  • Exports of goods and services decreased $0.3 billion in April to $193.3 billion, reflecting a decrease in exports of goods. Exports of services increased.
  • The decrease in exports of goods mainly reflected decreases in capital goods and in foods, feeds, and beverages.
  • The increase in exports of services mainly reflected increases in financial services and in transport, which includes passenger fares.
Imports
  • Imports of goods and services increased $2.7 billion in April to $240.6 billion, mainly reflecting an increase in imports of goods. Imports of services also increased.
  • The increase in imports of goods mainly reflected increases in consumer goods, in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, and in capital goods.
  • The increase in imports of services reflected increases of less than $0.1 billion in several categories of services.
Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)
  • The goods deficit with the European Union increased from $11.2 billion in March to $13.1 billion in April. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $23.2 billion, and imports increased $2.1 billion to $36.3 billion.
  • The goods deficit with China increased from $26.3 billion in March to $28.0 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $9.7 billion, and imports increased $1.2 billion to $37.7 billion.
  • The goods deficit with India increased from $2.0 billion in March to $2.6 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $1.4 billion, and imports increased $0.3 billion to $4.0 billion.






AND....





International Trade
Released On 6/4/2014 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Trade Balance Level$-40.4 B$-44.2 B$-41.0 B$-43.0 B to $-38.6 B$-47.2 B
Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. international trade gap in March narrowed to $40.4 billion from $41.9 billion in February. Exports rebounded 2.1 percent, following a 1.3 percent decline in February. Imports gained 1.1 percent after no gain the month before. The shrinking of the trade gap was led by a narrowing of the oil deficit with a rebound in the services surplus contributing. The petroleum deficit narrowed to $18.6 billion from $20.0 billion in February. The services surplus rebounded to $20.4 billion in March from $19.5 billion the month before. The services surplus in February had been bumped down by license fees for coverage of the winter Olympics. The goods excluding petroleum gap expanded to $40.6 billion from $39.4 billion in February.
Definition
International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Merchandise trade is available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than one hundred principal Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) system commodity groupings. Data are also available for 36 countries and geographic regions. Detailed information is reported on oil and motor vehicle imports. Services trade is available by export, import and trade balance for seven principal end-use categories.





June 4, 2014, 8:36 a.m. EDT

U.S. trade deficit jumps 6.9% in April to two-year high

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By Jeffry Bartash

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. trade deficit surged 6.9% in April to a two-year high as Americans imported a record amount of goods such as autos, cell phones, computers and networking gear, a government report showed Wednesday. The nation's trade gap widened to $47.2 billion in April from an upwardly revised $44.2 billion in March, the Commerce Department said. That was much higher than the $41 billion forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The March deficit, meanwhile, was originally reported as $40.4 billion. A larger trade deficit, generally a negative thing for an economy, results when the U.S. buys more goods and services from abroad or sells less to foreign countries. U.S. imports rose 1.2% in April to record $240.6 billion. U.S. exports dropped 0.2% in April to $193.3 billion. The bigger April trade gap could be a double-edged sword. While the higher deficit might reduce gross domestic product in the second quarter, the spike in imports suggests Americans are more confident about the economy and thus more willing to spend.