GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2014 08:38 -0400

Despite consensus at 1.2% growth QoQ, the "weather" destroyed the fragile stimulus-led economy of the US which managed only a de minimus +0.1% QoQ growth (the lowest since Q1 2011). However, as Steve Liesman noted on the heels of Mark Zandi's comments "basically ignore this number" - ok then. Spending on Services, however, surged by the most since 2000 - heralded as great news by some talking heads - but is merely a reflection of the surge in healthcare and heating costs (imagine if it had not been cold and if Obamacare hadn't saved us). As a reminder - this is the growth that is occurring as QE has run its course, as stimulus ends, and as escape velocity nears... if the "weather" can do this much damage to the US economy, should stocks really be trading at the multiple of exuberant future hope that they are?

Oops!

And here's what everyone's favorite economist thought...

We are projecting a weather-impacted +2.0% gain in Q1 real #GDP, a 1.3 point rise in the manufacturing #ISM to 55.0 and +240k on #NFP.

1:30 PM - 25 Apr 2014

ADP 220K Print Beats Expectations, Continues To Goal-Seek Historical Revisions To Ape BLS Data

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2014 08:28 -0400

Since ADP is completely useless when it comes to actually hinting at the future and all it does is "confirm" whatever momentum the BLS reports on, today's print, like all those from the past, is absolutely meaningless. Still, for those who care, the April private jobs print, even though the month is not over yet, was 220K, above the 210K expected, with the last month revised once again higher from 191K to 209K - this was the highest number since November 2013. Sadly, since ADP continues to not report non-seasonally adjusted numbers (since it doesn't have them as all it does is take BLS numbers and gently massages them to appear relevant), there is no way of knowing what ADP is actually selling.

Here is the April chart...

... and putting it into its meaningless context, here are the pre-revision o ADP numbers from the past three months.

February

And March:

The suppsed detail behind the numbers. We would say the token 1,000 increase in manufacturing jobs is notable, however since it too is completely made up, there is no point in highlighting it:

Amusing soundbites from Mark Zandi, whose relevance as an economist has tumbled to unseen lows:

"The 220,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in April is well above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Job growth appears to be trending up and hopefully this will continue.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is gaining strength. After a tough winter employers are expanding payrolls across nearly all industries and company sizes. The recent pickup in job growth at mid-sized companies may signal better business confidence. Job market prospects are steadily improving.”

Some more absolutely meaningless charts:

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment